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Building energy use is becoming increasingly important in China. Despite a rapid growth in recent years, energy use intensity in China is still relatively low compared to other advanced economies; thus, there is still substantial room for it to increase as living standards and industrial services are improved. It is therefore important to focus on the future development of building energy use by considering new trends in the building and energy sectors, as well as the role of occupant behavior. This study uses the China Building Energy Model (CBEM) to model China's building energy consumption and carbon emissions up to 2050 for different scenarios based on these considerations. The results indicate that building energy use will be 80% higher than the current situation if the strategies of the 13th Five-Year Plan are maintained and approximately 10% higher if stronger strategies toward energy efficiency are employed. Carbon emissions are predicted to peak around 2020 to 2035. The contributions of key strategies in different subsectors are also discussed. This research suggests that, through the use of suitable strategies and policies, energy use and carbon emissions in China's building sector can achieve the combined goals of energy revolution and climate change mitigation. • China's building energy consumption and carbon emissions up to 2050 were modeled. • China's building energy use will be 10%–80% higher under different scenarios. • The contributions of key strategies in different subsectors were discussed. • China's building sector is able to develop sustainably with suitable strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's transportation industry, with its typical characteristics of "high energy consumption and high emissions", is a key point for China's CO 2 emission reduction. An investigation of the driving factors of China's transport energy-related CO 2 emissions has great importance for clarifying the "gains" and "losses" as well as the future focuses of CO 2 emissions emission reduction in this sector. Existing studies on the driving factors of transport CO 2 emissions in China fail to incorporate effects of technology and efficiency into decomposition analysis framework. Based on the provincial panel data of China's transportation industry for the period of 2004–2016, this paper uses a comprehensive decomposition framework, which combines the logarithmic mean Divisia index method (LMDI) and production-theoretical decomposition analysis (PDA), to decompose China's transport CO 2 emissions into nine components: emission factor effect, energy structure effect, scale effect, regional structure effect, energy-saving technology effect, production technology effect, energy efficiency effect, production efficiency effect, and potential energy intensity effect. The main results indicate that: (1) during the sample period, China's transport industry witnessed 498.998 million tons (Mt) CO 2 emissions growth. Scale effect was the largest contributor, followed by production technology, energy-saving technology, and energy structure; (2) the improvement of energy efficiency and production efficiency, the decline of electricity's emission factor, and regional structure adjustment played active roles in the CO 2 emission reduction of transportation industry; (3) the performance of various driving factors varies greatly in different provinces. Local governments should establish and implement policies tailored to their characteristics. • A production-theoretical approach was used for China's transport CO 2 emissions. • It can decompose CO 2 emissions from technology and efficiency perspectives. • Results show that during 2004–2016, China's transport CO 2 emissions increased by 498.998 Mt. • Output effect was the largest contributor to this remarkable increase of transport CO 2 emissions. • Technology and efficiency factors cumulatively reduced 242.1 Mt transport CO 2 emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]