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This paper analyses the potential implications of the proposed European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) and the recently adopted United Kingdom (UK) legislation on deforestation-free supply chains (henceforth 'the legislation') for different stakeholders in Brazil. These regulations intend to address global commodity-driven deforestation and forest degradation by ensuring that targeted commodities and products placed on (or exported from) markets are of minimal risk of being associated with - in the EU - deforestation and forest degradation or - in the UK - illegal deforestation. The paper examines potential compliance readiness in cattle, cocoa, coffee, palm oil, soybean and tropical timber supply chains in Brazil, indicating specific challenges that may arise. Through the construction of a "Compliance Likelihood Index", our research provides comparable indications to policymakers on sectors and stakeholders that may need stronger support to meet the requirements, in order to maintain Brazil's access to EU and UK markets. The paper indicates that coffee is the sector with the highest level of incentivization and smallest hurdles for compliance, while the cattle sector may face stronger challenges to rapidly adjust its production system towards a deforestation-free value chain and prove compliance. Results of our analysis also highlight the need for collaboration between the EU/UK and Brazil in order to promote alignment between domestic and demand-side legislations so that they are mutually reinforcing. Results of this exercise, which has a focus on the producer-country view of demand-side legislation, will contribute to discussions on the merits of different approaches to strengthen the governance of deforestation-risk commodity trade. [Display omitted] • Brazil's coffee sector may currently have the greatest likelihood of ready compliance. • Cattle may be the sector to which the regulations may pose the greatest challenges. • The EU and UK should focus on providing financial means and technical assistance for smallholders. • The EU and UK legislation will need to be accompanied by domestic policies and regulations in Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Deforestation-induced rainfall changes negatively impact soybean and maize yields in Brazil. • Soybean and maize yields could have been 6.6 % and 9.9 % higher per year if rainfall patterns hadn't been altered by deforestation. • Agricultural efficiency improvements insufficient to counteract rainfall-changes effects on yields. • Study underscores the vital role of forest preservation for agricultural resilience and food security. • Forests' critical role in regulating the water cycle highlighted in the face of climate change. Whereas the global demand for food, fiber and energy is increasing, the capacity of ecosystems services to sustain agricultural production is being compromised worldwide. Brazil is a global food supplier that has benefitted from agricultural intensification in the past decades. At the same time, expansion of cropland has led to deforestation that, in turn, is increasingly affecting rainfall patterns thereby influencing crop yields. This study examines how loss in forest cover has impacted agricultural yields through change in rainfall. To do so, we use modelled data on changes in rainfall patterns due to deforestation as input to a crop model. We assess yield changes within the soybean-maize double cropping system, the country's most relevant agricultural system, in five states within the Amazon and Cerrado biomes. Findings revealed that soybean and maize yields would have been respectively 6.6 % and 9.9 % higher per year in the last decade if rainfall patterns hadn't been altered by deforestation from 1982 onwards. Although agricultural efficiency improved between 2011 and 2020, it was insufficient to offset the negative effect of altered rainfall on yields. Our paper reveals the link between deforestation and crop yields, emphasizing the need to preserve forest cover for agricultural resilience and food security. It reinforces the critical role of forests in regulating the water cycle, particularly in the face of climate change-induced warmer and drier conditions that can impact agricultural production and other human activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The Amazonian state of Mato Grosso is the main production area for soybeans in Brazil and contains 31.3% of the national production as of 2009. The rapid evolution of the agricultural systems in this area shows that the region is experiencing a rapid agricultural transition. In this paper, we broke down this transition process into three steps: crop expansion, agricultural intensification and ecological intensification. We used remote sensing products to develop and compute satellite-derived indices describing the main agricultural dynamics during the cropping years from 2000–2001 to 2006–2007. Our results indicated that Mato Grosso is continuing to expand its agricultural sector, with a 43% increase in the net cropped area during the study period. Although this expansion mainly occurred in the cerrado ecoregion until the early 2000s, the forest ecoregion is experiencing expansion at this time. We observed that 65% of the crop expansion in Mato Grosso from 2000 to 2006 occurred in this ecoregion. However, we did not identify this crop expansion as the major driver of deforestation in Mato Grosso because only 12.6% of the cleared areas were directly converted into croplands. Agricultural intensification also evolved rapidly, as the proportion of the net cropped area cultivated with double cropping systems harvesting two successive commercial crops (i.e., soybean and corn or soybean and cotton) increased from 6% to 30% during the study period. Finally, we found that ecological intensification occurred because the region’s farmers planted a non-commercial crop (i.e., millet or sorghum) after the soybean harvest to prevent soil erosion, improve soil quality, break pest cycles, maintain soil moisture and set the conditions for high-quality no-tillage operations. In 2006–2007, 62% of the net cropped area was permanently covered by crops during the entire rainy season. This practice allowed the farmers to diversify their production, as shown by the positive evolution of the Area Diversity Index. Future scholars can use the method proposed in this paper to improve their understanding of the forces driving the agricultural dynamics in Mato Grosso. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract The Energy-Water-Food Nexus is one of the most complex sustainability challenges faced by the world. This is particularly true in Brazil, where insufficiently understood interactions within the Nexus are contributing to large-scale deforestation and land-use change, water and energy scarcity, and increased vulnerability to climate change. The reason is a combination of global environmental change and global economic change, putting unprecedented pressures on the Brazilian environment and ecosystems. In this paper, we identify and discuss the main Nexus challenges faced by Brazil across sectors (e.g. energy, agriculture, water) and scales (e.g. federal, state, municipal). We use four case studies to explore all nodes of the Nexus. For each, we analyse data from economic and biophysical modelling sources in combination with an overview of the legislative and policy landscape, in order to identify governance shortcomings in the context of growing challenges. We analyse the complex interdependence of developments at the global and local (Brazilian) levels, highlighting the impact of global environmental and economic change on Brazil and, conversely, that of developments in Brazil for other countries and the world. We conclude that there is a need to adjust the scientific approach to these challenges as an enabling condition for stronger science-policy bridges for sustainability policy-making. Highlights • Overview of the Energy-Water-Food Nexus in Brazil for science, law and policy. • Review of the complex linkages in the Nexus for water, energy and food security. • Review of the law addressing the Nexus and its coordination deficiencies. • Recommendations for strengthening the Nexus science-policy bridge in Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Land reform settlements (LRS) in the Brazilian Amazon have been suggested to hold promise for the successful implementation of incipient efforts to reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD). However, differences in forest cover, deforestation behaviour and settler welfare plus the inevitable overlap of upcoming REDD efforts with existing conservation policies, mean that scope and impact of REDD in LRS will not be uniform across settlements. Based on evidence from a case study of four LRS and a Brazilian Amazon regional analysis of opportunity costs, this paper explores the actual scope for targeting initial Brazilian REDD efforts to LRS and discusses potential welfare and equity implications based on scenario analysis. While our findings confirm considerable economic scope for compensation-based schemes for avoided degradation and deforestation, the pre-existence of legal use right limitations in combination with the distribution of forest cover among LRS means that less than half of settlements – poorer – will be able to derive economic gains. Exploring a mix between incentives and disincentives seems to offer the most promising future regarding efficiency and equity successful results. The paper concludes with the implications of the results in the international debate on the constraints ahead to implement the REDD principles. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper seeks to understand how the Brazilian Amazon, which many thought unsuitable for agricultural development, has yielded to a dynamic cattle economy in only a few decades. It does so by embedding the Thunian model of location rents within the regime of capital accumulation that has driven the Brazilian economy since the mid-20th century. The paper addresses policies that have created location rents in Amazônia, the effect of these rents on land managers, and the spatial implications of their behavior on forests. Thus, the paper connects macro-processes and structures to agents on the ground, in providing a political ecological explanation relevant to land change science. The policy discussion focuses on reductions in transportation costs, improvements in animal health, and monetary and trade reforms. To illustrate the impact of policy, the paper presents data on the geography of Amazonian herd expansion, on the growth of Amazonian exports, and on the profitability of the region’s cattle economy. It follows the empirical presentation with more abstract consideration of the spatial relations between cattle ranching and soy farming, and implications for deforestation. The paper concludes on a speculative note by considering the likelihood of forest transition in the region, given the transformation of Amazônia into a global resource frontier. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The side effect of the expansion of agricultural activities in the Brazilian Cerrado resulted in a loss of its native vegetation, biodiversity decline, and increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Recent expansion has mainly occurred in the northern Cerrado, a region known as MATOPIBA, which is the latest agricultural frontier in Brazil and is largely cultivated for agricultural commodities. In this paper, we investigate the spatiotemporal behaviour of Cerrado vegetation and agricultural areas in the Cerrado – MATOPIBA (CM) region between 1990 and 2017. Moreover, we analyse the planted area expansion of soybean and other important crops for the region and their productivity, and examine how pasturelands have changed over time. We also present a map of private rural lands and analyse whether they comply with the national Forest Code (FC) regarding in-farm areas of natural vegetation that ought to be preserved by law. Finally, we estimate how much of the current deforestation rates could be avoided in the CM region if the Soy Moratorium (SoyM) or the FC are implemented. Results show a loss of almost 8.4 Mha of the Cerrado vegetation in the study area and an expansion of 4.3 Mha of agricultural lands between 1990 and 2017. Our analysis indicates that soybean planted areas expanded by 326% between 2000 and 2017 and that soybean average productivity increased from 2483 kg/ha in 2000 to2906 kg/ha in 2017. In addition to soybean, other crops also contributed to the agribusiness economy in the CM region, with corn being the crop with the greatest expansion of planted areas over the same period (643,443 ha), and cotton the cultivation with the highest increase in productivity (from 2300 kg/ha to 3822 kg/ha) in these 17 analysed years. Pasturelands expanded from 6.4 Mha in 2000 9.8 Mha in 2017. In 2018, private rural properties consisted of only 7188 large properties and occupied 19.5 Mha, whereas small and medium properties accounted for 136,586 farms and covered a total of only 17.5 Mha. With respect to the national FC, the deficit of preservation areas in the CM region, in relation to the agricultural area of each municipality, totalled almost 1.4 Mha in 2017, with large properties responsible for 57% of this deficit. Looking at the policies and mechanisms to protect the native vegetation of the CM region, we have that 17,219,250 ha can still be deforested on the rural properties in this region; and, if the SoyM was expanded to the Cerrado – MATOPIBA region, almost 900,000 ha covered by native vegetation on the categories of farms selected would have been prevented to be converted to soybeans since 2010. The findings from this paper provide a comprehensive understanding of the land use and land cover changes and of the Cerrado deforestation patterns in the CM region for the last decades, and gather information on conservation policies in place to suggest improvements. Several datasets were combined, mainly focus on quantitative analysis, to investigate the geospatial dynamics of natural and agribusiness areas in the study region, and suggest the need to reinforce the preservation of Cerrado native vegetation areas, particularly those that are liable to be legally deforested. • There are 21.5 Mha of native vegetation covering private rural properties. • 17.2 Mha of these vegetation areas can be legally deforested. • Legal mechanisms are not strong enough in the study region, as 4.3 Mha of native vegetation is liable to be legally deforested. • Agricultural areas expanded by 645% in the CM region between 1990 and 2017. • In 2020, the CM region was responsible for 64% of the Cerrado's deforestation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Amazon forest in the state of Maranhão ensures ecosystem services that directly and indirectly affect the life quality of its population and economy, via hydrologic and climatic regulation, among other benefits. Currently, only 25% of the original forest cover (24.7 thousand km 2 ) remains while illegal deforestation persists in a violent process that provokes visible social, economic and environmental harm. Simultaneously, Maranhão has seen record levels of burning, faces a water shortage and fights against the worst social and economic indicators in the country. Conversely, secondary vegetation covers 19.9 thousand km 2 (27% of deforested area) and is completely unprotected. Contrary to the international commitments assumed by Brazil to combat deforestation and restore forests, some of the political representatives of Maranhão have sought legal mechanisms to further diminish forest cover in public and private areas. To promote the conservation and restoration of Maranhão Amazon Forest, a multi-institutional network of researchers was established in 2015. This viewpoint paper aims to draw attention to this endangered region of the Brazilian Amazon and give science-oriented recommendations to policy makers in order to avoid more setbacks. We argue that Maranhão state must urgently establish a policy of Zero Deforestation, protect secondary forests and comply with the national forest restoration policy, thus ensuring long-term economic sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cattle ranching in Brazil is a key driver of deforestation and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The Brazilian government plans to reduce national GHG emissions by at least 36%, partly by reducing emissions in the livestock sector through strategies such as intensification, pasture improvement, and rotational grazing. In response, sustainability programs promoting these practices have begun operation. Though studies have previously investigated aspects of GHG emissions and sequestration in improved pastures, they have not linked improvements with programmatic interventions. We surveyed 40 cattle ranchers located in the Brazilian Amazon biome to investigate how GHG emissions differed between farms participating in livestock sustainability programs with intensified production and farms not participating in these programs. We found that participating farms produced 8.3 kg of CO 2 e/kg of carcass weight (CW) less than did non-participating farms, which represents 19% fewer emissions. Farms that had participated in a sustainability program for at least two years showed larger differences in emissions: 19.0 kg of CO 2 e/kg CW less for program farms compared with their counterparts, or 35.8% fewer emissions. Key drivers of the total CO 2 e/kg CW in all farms were enteric fermentation and manure management. This paper provides farm-level data supporting intensification as a possible strategy to reduce emissions per kilogram of beef produced, and suggests that future research efforts should focus on long-term impacts of intensification and expand metrics for success beyond GHG calculations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the historical drivers and barriers of three mitigation actions in Brazil: the expansion of no-till agriculture, reduction of deforestation, and increased displacement of gasoline with ethanol. The characteristics of these three economic changes align with evolutionary economic theories rather than neoclassical or environmental economics. Despite its cost-effectiveness, diffusion of no-till agriculture was contingent on social learning and flows of information within the agricultural regime. Brazil’s success in reducing deforestation rates was driven not by policies that changed the microeconomic calculation of farmers, but by command-and-control policies on deforestation enabled through landscape shifts. Brazil’s ethanol biofuels industry emerged due to both niche level innovation of ethanol production systems and pure-ethanol vehicles, and shifts at the landscape level that enabled mandated fuel blends, public procurement programmes, and public investment in R&D. These three economic changes correspond with the categories of reproduction, transformation and transition, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim in this paper was to evaluate the spatial distribution of protected areas defined by law and their importance as structural corridors. The study area was 7,559,783.69 ha located in Western Bahia (Northeast Brazil), restricted to the limits of the Urucuia Group (Upper Cretaceous), where there is strong agribusiness growth. Currently, a major dilemma in Brazilian public policy arises from the conflicting interests of environmental conservation and increased food production. Brazilian environmental protection policies include the implantation of Protected Areas (Full Protection Units and Sustainable Use Units) and the adoption of the National Forest Act (Permanent Preservation Areas and Legal Reserves). In this context, we delimited illegal land-use in Permanent Preservation Areas (PPAs) adopting the intersection between land-use/land-cover data from PRISM/ALOS image classification for the years 2007–2010 and PPA vectors. We performed the temporal analysis in PAs considering land-use/land-cover data from Landsat TM image classification for the years 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2011. Finally, we performed a Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis (MSPA) to evaluate whether PPAs alone are sufficient as structural corridors. Hypothetical scenarios were simulated to increase the potential of PPAs as structural corridors. The calculation of MSPA attributes was conducted considering 3 edge widths: 15 m (1 pixel), 510 m (34 pixels), and 1005 m (67 pixels). Four scenarios were simulated, considering a gradual increase in preserved areas. The results show that illegal land use is contained within PPA and protected areas. The scenario simulations present alternatives to increase the connectivity of the fragments and ensure the maintenance of ecological and hydrological services. Rapid agricultural expansion without proper landscape planning can compromise the sustainability of ecosystem services and the recharge zone of the Urucuia aquifer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Land governance is a factor of Brazilian Amazon deforestation control. • Lack of an integrated land cadaster paves the way for land speculation and land grabs. • Recent political shift has generated uncertainties about the future of Brazilian environmental policies. This paper's aim is to show that improvements in land governance in Brazil, and particularly in the Amazon region, have been the main pre-condition enabling reductions in deforestation of the Amazon rainforest. Deforestation occurs primarily where property rights are not clearly established, and occurs mostly on land directly or indirectly under state responsibility. This paper also shows that land speculation plays an important role in deforestation. Based on these findings, it is evident that Brazil must improve its land governance in order to decrease rates of deforestation. The Brazilian government has adopted important new efforts to improve land administration, including improvements in the registration process and the Terra Legal program, which are addressing public land problems across large areas of the Amazon. The concluding section highlights how efforts to reduce deforestation will only be possible through more efficient land governance, especially in the Amazon region, and discusses the important role that participatory land governance may play in improving land use and land ownership through application of land taxes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biodiversity in Latin America is at risk today due to habitat loss, land conversion to agriculture and urbanization. To grow their economies the developing countries of Latin America have begun to invest heavily in new road construction. An assessment of research on the impacts of roads on wildlife in Latin America will help define science-based conservation strategies aimed at mitigating road expansion. The aim of this review was to qualitatively and quantitatively assess scientific research papers addressing road impacts on vertebrate species in Latin America. We searched for scientific papers published as early as 1990 to 2017. We reviewed a total of 197 papers. Published research showed an increasing trend in the last decade with a strong geographic bias with a majority of papers from Brazil. Mammals were the most studied taxa followed by birds, reptiles and amphibians. The majority of studies focused on road mortality and at the individual species level. Studies documented an increase in deforestation rates, in land conversion to agriculture, illegal activities (hunting, logging) and the establishment of human settlements. The effects of roads on species richness and populations abundance varied among taxa with no apparent pattern within taxa. Forest-dependent species tended to avoid crossing roads. Amphibians had the highest median road-kill rate, followed by reptiles, mammals and birds. Our results suggest that there is an urgent need for more research, particularly in Central America and to employ predictive tools for difficult-to-sample or understudied species and critical conservation areas. We recommend a two-speed approach to guide future research: one focusing on quantifying individual species responses towards roads and their implications on population viability; a second consisting of regional or continental-scale analyses and modelling of road risks to species and populations to inform road planning immediately. • Planned roads in Latin America are a threat to biodiversity conservation. • Published research has grown in the last decade with a geographic bias for Brazil. • Studies are focused on road mortality, especially on medium-large mammals. • There is a need for more research, particularly on the impacts of roads at level of genes and populations. • Quantifying individual species responses towards roads and predictive analyses are needed to inform road mitigation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The Atlantic Forest is the biome with the highest number of papers on ecological restoration. • Pantanal, Pampa and Caatinga are the least studied in terms of ecological restoration. • In all biomes, most of the studies are related to monitoring. • The number of species used in restored areas is limited. • It is necessary to include different life forms, restoration techniques and studies using reference areas to measure success. The Bonn challenge aims at the restoration of 350 million hectares of degraded ladscapes by 2030. In Brazil, the restoration goal for 2030 is 12 million hectares. Despite the great demand for ecological restoration across the whole of Brazil, there have been no analyses of the studies carried out in different biomes. In addition, conservation efforts must cover all biomes, so that different regions can take advantage of the many benefits of restoration. Our aim was to identify advances and gaps in current restoration knowledge in order to guide future efforts in Brazil. Our bibliometric survey in the Web of Science using 23 keywords related to restoration generated a total of 530 papers, of which 291 were included in the analysis. The papers were published in 121 scientific journals between 1988 and 2018, with the largest number of papers in 2016. The Atlantic Forest was the biome with the highest number of studies, as it is one of the most threatened tropical forest regions in the world and maintains the largest number of research institutions and receives the highest level of funding support in the country. Regarding the types of studies, temporal monitoring was more frequent in the Amazon, Cerrado, Caatinga, and Pampa, while the monitoring at one point in time was more frequent in the Atlantic Forest. From the studies examined, 31% used a reference area for comparing restoration success. The most studied organisms were plants (81%), and among them, trees were the most frequent, followed by fungi, birds, invertebrates, mammals, and reptiles. The pre-restoration degradation differed among biomes, with deforestation for logging the most cited in the Amazon, agriculture, and livestock in the Atlantic Forest and Cerrado, logging and cattle ranching in Caatinga, and livestock in the Pampa and Pantanal. In general, active/assisted natural succession was the most frequent restoration process: planting seedlings more readily occurred in the Amazon, Atlantic Forest, and Caatinga, whereas natural regeneration in the Cerrado and Pantanal and sowing in Pampa. The studies varied among the age of restoration (>1 to 67 years for active restoration and >1 to 120 years for passive/unassisted natural succession), and the number of species planted (1 to 121 species). We identified an important regional knowledge gap for the Pantanal, Caatinga, and Pampa, as well as the need to include reference areas, evaluate different restoration techniques (besides planting seedlings), and the inclusion of other taxa and life forms in biodiversity studies apart from trees. We also identified the need to expand research to assess landscape metrics, prioritization, legislation, and public policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The way vegetation is officially named, classified, and identified has critical implications for ecosystems and biodiversity conservation. Yet little attention is given to how such issues hinder the efficacy of laws mandating environmental conservation on private land. In the Brazilian Amazon where half of the land is now already under private tenure or is available for future land-uses, differences in vegetation mapping and interpretation directly affect the level of protection in private rural properties, especially in transition areas where forest and savanna areas intermingle. Since Brazil's Native Vegetation Protection Law (NVPL) attaches a higher percentage of protection to forest-located properties, landowners may be tempted to use conflicting mappings and different vegetation classifications to claim their properties are located in areas other than forests to reduce their conservation requirements. In this paper, we compare three official vegetation databases and examine different law interpretation scenarios to assess the extent to which the level of private conservation may fluctuate. We found a difference of up to 430,000 km2 of protected vegetation (an area the size of Iraq) according to the database and vegetation characteristics chosen. This technical ambiguity may lead to make additional deforestation legal or reduce sharply the amount of vegetation to be restored for these areas, if left unaddressed. Clarifying the database and criteria used to define forest is critical, especially as Brazilian states may make different choices in that regard, and cases in which loopholes are exploited occurred in the recent past. Given the importance of this region for global biodiversity conservation and climate, we highlight the urgent need to: (1) support additional research to clarify vegetation characteristics and location; (2) agree on a harmonized methodology to determine forests for NVPL implementation, and (3) explore alternative criteria for defining forests when databases conflict. • Accurate native vegetation mapping is key to private forest conservation. • Uncertain vegetation classification weakens compliance with Brazil's forest law. • Study provides scenarios exploring the implications of multiple vegetation databases. • 430,000 square kilometers of the Brazilian Amazon are at risk of reduced protection. • Both deforestation and native vegetation restoration are affected by this. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores the main direct and underlying causes of deforestation in Brazil's Legal Amazon region by considering spatial differences. The computation of localized parameters is based on geographically weighted regression (GWR). The novelty of this paper lies in its incorporation of economic, rather than Euclidean, distances into the GWR. Economic distances are measured by travel time, sourced from Google Inc. A global approach revealed several important factors that affect deforestation, including: rural population, GDP (suggesting a U-shaped environmental Kuznets curve), forest stock, cattle ranching, timber value, and road networks (both official and unofficial). Local analysis uncovered patterns not seen under global models, especially in the state of Pará. Most notably, crop cultivation was found to accelerate deforestation in southeastern Pará and northeastern Mato Grosso, while in some regions (especially in the northeastern corner of Pará), the area covered by crop plantations was negatively associated with deforestation. For Pará, rural credit constraints, larger territories designated as sustainable use areas and indigenous lands, and higher levels of precipitation inhibit deforestation. Further, rural population has a very heterogeneous impact on deforestation across Legal Amazon: it is not a significant factor of deforestation in northern Pará and Amapá, but it has a relatively strong effect in the western parts of Mato Grosso and Rondônia. Also, official and illegal roads create significantly more pressure on forests in remote regions compared to developed areas. Finally, the use of economic distances, as opposed to Euclidean distances, leads to notably different GWR results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brazil was the first country to submit a reference level (RL) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) aiming to claim results-based payments for reduced emissions from deforestation in the REDD+ mechanism. This voluntary RL submission has passed an official technical assessment process by the UNFCCC on the accordance of the data and method applied, which was finalised in December 2014. After years of international negotiations this has become possible by the REDD+ framework finally agreed. Although never formally adopted, the rules of procedure of the UNFCCC foresee consensus among the 196 parties to the convention. Due to the wide heterogeneity in national circumstances and capacities between these parties, the decided REDD+ framework represents a compromise, and in some points space for interpretation remains due to a lack of clear definitions. E.g., no internationally standardised method exists for the design of RLs under UNFCCC; rather each country has the possibility to apply its own approach within a given range of requirements. We argue that these nationally designed RLs involve the danger of raising a ‘cherry-picking’ mentality, which would reduce cost-efficiency of the payments. Especially in the light of the ongoing pressure to fight anthropogenic global climate change, the overall objective of REDD+ should be climate effectiveness. Therefore, apparently contradictory objectives—of integrating as many developing countries as possible, by keeping the barriers low, and of effective emission reductions by persisting on strict rules for national carbon accounting—had to be balanced. According to the technical assessment by the UNFCCC, the submitted Brazilian RL fulfils all formal requirements. However, as implication of the negotiated framework, there remain some questions on the climate effectiveness and the cost-efficiency of the submitted approach, which this viewpoint paper aims to critically reflect. Brazil chose for its present RL design the eligible options of a subnational coverage, with consideration of the activity of deforestation only. But only comprehensive accounting of all activities on national scale can ensure that all potential emissions are accounted for. By the present accounting gap, doubts on climate effectiveness arise. Furthermore, Brazil chose a fixed starting year for historic emissions and did not consider national circumstances, which results in reference emissions of about 1100 Mt CO 2 /a between 2006 and 2010. This potentially profitable RL setting for Brazil raises doubt on the cost-efficiency of the implied REDD+ payment. Whether these problems arising from the four eligible but critical RL options applied by Brazil emerge in other RLs as well, was checked for further five RL proposals submitted up to now. None of these country submissions has passed the technical assessment yet. The submitted approaches for RL design differ among the considered countries but one can see a tendency towards profitable individual RL definitions, similar to the Brazilian RL. From our findings we conclude that individually determined RLs without standardised methods bear the risk of national ‘cherry-picking’ which can compromise climate effectiveness and cost-efficiency of the whole REDD+ mechanism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brazil is one of the first major developing countries to commit to a national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions target that requires a reduction of between 36.1% and 38.9% relative to baseline emissions by 2020. The country intends to submit agricultural emissions reductions as part of this target, with livestock production identified as offering significant abatement potential. Focusing on the Cerrado core (central Brazilian savannah), this paper investigates the cost-effectiveness of this potential, which involves some consideration of both the private and social costs and benefits (e.g. including avoided deforestation) arising from specific mitigation measures that may form part of Brazil's definition of Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Measures (NAMAs). The analysis used an optimisation model to define abatement costs. A baseline projection suggests that beef production in the region will emit 2.6 Gt CO 2 e (CO 2 equivalent) from 2010 to 2030, corresponding to 9% of national emissions (including energy, transport, waste, livestock and agriculture). By implementing negative-cost measures identified in a marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) by 2030, the 2.6 Gt CO 2 e could be reduced by around 24%. Pasture restoration, involving avoided deforestation, offers the largest contribution to these results. As the Brazilian Cerrado is seen as a model for transforming other global savannahs, the results offer a significant contribution by identifying alternatives for increasing productivity while minimizing national and global external costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brazil seeks to rapidly increase its agricultural production to meet future demands, especially for sugarcane, which is an agricultural commodity and a biofuel source. In this paper, we explore how to achieve this increase without compromising existing forestlands. We propose that it is possible to substantially expand sugarcane production in Brazil while avoiding further environmental losses and the indirect land use changes often associated with them, such as deforestation. This task could be accomplished by converting existing pasturelands with agricultural potential into cropland. A great deal of pastureland exists in Brazil. Thus, we addressed the following questions in this study: (1) where are the most suitable pasturelands for sugarcane located geographically and (2) what potential do these pasturelands have for sugarcane production regarding their physical suitability and other significant factors, such as infrastructure availability and socioeconomic factors. We conducted a land suitability analysis using a spatial location model based on multicriteria decision-making and geographic information systems (GIS) to identify the cultivated pasturelands most suitable for conversion to sugarcane production in Brazil. “What if” scenarios were built to determine how changes in the subjectively derived weights of the priority criteria would modify the spatial distribution of the suitability classes relative to the MCDA model and demonstrate the robustness of the crop suitability assessment. The most suitable pastureland areas for conversion to sugarcane production were predominantly located in Minas Gerais, São Paulo, Paraná, Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso and Pará. These zones have large contiguous areas of pasture with moderate and high agricultural potentials for sugarcane production. The total estimated area of cultivated pasturelands with moderate or high suitability for sugarcane production was 50 million hectares, which is much larger than the area currently used for sugarcane production in Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brazilian merchant pig iron (MPI) mills, even those relying exclusively on charcoal, are at least as harmful to the global climate as the coal-based competitors they confront in international trade. However, when timber from deforestation is replaced by sustainably managed forest plantations, a carbon neutral process emerges. Yet the cost of growing trees can be large enough to discourage mills from pursuing such a climate change mitigation route. The paper shows that the impasse can be overcome by the improvement of pyrolysis kilns coupled with a multilateral agreement in which (1) Brazil supplies attested carbon-neutral MPI and (2) importers of Brazilian MPI take environmental concerns to the field of MPI trade, paying a premium of 19% of MPI price or of US$3 per ton of avoided emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: It is widely recognised that weak governance is a major constraint in planning for sustainable development, especially in the South. Sophisticated models that have been developed for assessing the likely effect of selected policies on land-use, and on sustainable development more generally, increasingly acknowledge this; but they do not include methods for taking this into account, in quantitative terms – which is what is necessary if such models are to be applied in practice. This paper begins by identifying the limitations of standard models in this respect, and then suggests a possible way to respond to the problem. We propose the use of what we call ‘policy-specific governance indicators’, that is, indicators not of general government performance across the board, but rather of the actual performance of particular policies – or, if necessary, suitable proxies derived from similar policies. By reference to a case study from Brazil concerning controls on deforestation, we show how this can be done in practice, and built in to the planning model. And by reference to studies from Indonesia and India we explore how one might address still more challenging cases that may arise. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The creation of a satellite rapid alert programme (DETER-A) in 2004 was a cornerstone of the Brazilian government's strategy to reduce deforestation. This programme allowed authorities to detect and respond rapidly to periods of deforestation. Due to the fact that the policy instrument was based on multispectral remote radar, weather-related obstacles posed a continuous impediment to the study of deforestation. This paper investigates to what extent cloud cover has reduced the effectiveness of the DETER-A program to detect deforestation. To test this hypothesis, survival model analysis is undertaken on satellite data derived measures of local deforestation. The emphasis is on the state of Maranhão, which is separated into two areas by an arbitrary line of demarcation (Legal Amazon delimitation) where the forest on one side is covered by the satellite monitoring program while the other is not. The results suggest that following the implementation of the satellite monitoring program, there was more deforestation in those years with more cloud persistence in the area covered by the program. Counterfactual simulations indicate that the absence of clouds would have prevented deforestation equivalent to almost 7% of the study region, which is equivalent to 73 million tonnes of CO 2 with a value of US$ 366 million. If the current monitoring system was replaced with the experimental policy instrument DETER-C/DETER INTENSO, cloud cover would be less of an impediment to deforestation detection. • Maranhao in Brazil is divided by an artificial line that separates it in two parts with two different deforestation monitoring policies. • Hence, it provides an ideal setting in which to study the impact of cloud cover on deforestation rates. • When a satellite monitoring programme is in operation, more deforestation occurs during years with greater cloud cover. • Highlights Improved satellite monitoring technologies may have a substantial effect on deforestation rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fake controversies have influenced policy making on health and environmental issues for decades, resulting in major implementation setbacks worldwide. As a case study, in this paper we examine fake controversies produced by a small group of active Brazilian researchers that have seriously impacted environmental conservation, particularly in issues related to deforestation and climate change. Based on the literature, we develop a typology of strategies deployed in fake controversies, which include manufacturing uncertainty, misusing scientific credentials, and disregarding scientific literature. Afterwards, we examine the influence of this group of contrarians at the National Congress. We then analyze the fake controversies promoted by these contrarians and argue that, to properly understand them, we need to consider a strategy so far overlooked in the literature: the manufacture of "pseudo-facts", namely, affirmations at odds with the established literature but that strives to appear as scientific facts. Unlike other contexts, in which contrarians have mainly sought to cast doubt on consensual issues by arguing that there are still considerable uncertainties surrounding them, in Brazil pseudo-facts on deforestation have been produced and published outside the peer-reviewed literature. We conclude the study with recommendations on how to oppose fake scientific controversies that threaten environmental conservation in general. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Does the adoption of agroforestry by small farmers in the Brazilian Amazon promote secondary forest succession on the degraded pastures and crop fields? New results from a small-scale farm agroforestry demonstration project, the Rondônia Agroforestry Pilot Project (RAPP) that began in 1992 are presented in this paper. In 1992, 242 farmers were surveyed by a stratified random sampling protocol, 50 of whom were selected to participate in the RAPP, constituting its experimental group. The remaining 191 farmers served as a control group. Farmers from both groups were re-surveyed in 2002 (after 10 years) and again in 2010 (after 18 years). Annual site visits to the experimental group farms were conducted from 1993 through 2003 to monitor agroforest plot development and management, and changes in pertinent socio-economic and household demographic characteristics such as household capacity, production systems, and social participation. Differences in property size, number of people permanently residing on the property, and social participation were found between the experimental and control group, with the experimental group having larger properties, more residents, and more participation in mutual aid associations. Control group farmers were also more reliant on cattle production (based on 2009 sales) despite having similar amounts of pasture as farmers in the experimental group. Within the experimental group, very few differences were found between farmers based on the type of agroforestry plot: timber, mixed or non-timber. Remote sensing analyses reveal long-term (10 years+) spectral differences in terms of the similarity to primary forest of both the agroforestry plots and the entire properties of the farms in this study. Experimental group farmers with mixed or timber-based agroforestry plots allowed more secondary forest succession to occur in and around their plots than farmers with non-timber plots. Although, on average, farm properties have become less spectrally similar to primary forest since 1992, properties with agroforestry plots tend to have more secondary succession and/or primary forest on their land in 2011. Several example properties are shown to illustrate the tendency of farmers with agroforestry plots to allow more secondary forest succession to occur on their land. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The Amazon continues to lose its natural vegetation, and Brazil, in particular, has a distinct agricultural frontier. We highlight the role of surveillance in reducing deforestation rates in the region. This paper lists the characteristics of the current agrarian structure and the surveillance information from Brazilian Institute of Environment and Natural Resources (IBAMA) with the current deforestation standards in the Amazonian municipalities. In addition, we investigate the relationship between the new areas of deforestation and the low level of agrarian technology in those areas. To do this, we used public deforestation data from the second half of the last decade (2005–2009). We also used agricultural census data to create an index of level of agrarian technology. Based on level of agrarian technology index it was possible to conclude that areas where agriculture and livestock have low level of agrarian technology coincide with the areas of highest deforestation in the Amazon. We found that agrarian structure guided the Amazonian deforestation at the end of this decade, as in previous decades. The maintenance of Agrarian structure in the region over the past 10 years makes us hypothesize that factors such as surveillance may determine decreases in deforestation rates. We showed that embargoed areas due to illegal deforestation occur in the critical areas of deforestation in Amazon, although do not get a clear any decrease in those deforestation rates caused by it. Possibly due to the time lag between recent changes in IBAMA surveillance approach and the society perception of the costs associated to illegal deforestation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper studies the dynamics of land-use in the Brazilian Amazon using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. A fixed effect panel data specification is used to control for the heterogeneity in the data. Meanwhile, spatial autocorrelation is also diagnosed by a statistical methodology that allows us to split the model in subsamples (clusters) of more homogenous municipalities. The clustering analysis shows that there are three clusters whose land-use patterns are strongly different in an economical point of view. The first cluster identifies municipalities dedicated to logging, natural resources exploitation and slash-and-burn cultures; the second cluster shows a more diversified agriculture; while the third cluster presents very developed intensive agriculture municipalities. Another contribution of this article relies on the assessment of contemporaneous causal relation among distinct land-uses areas. This new approach allows us to evaluate the dynamics relations arisen from unexpected innovations in the process of soil occupation. The impulse response functions (IRF) and the forecast error variance decompositions (FEVD) generate the following results: (1) in the opposition direction of previous studies, we find that the demand for cropping does not require to clear new areas of forest.; (2) contrary to previous studies we do not find indication that cattle ranching is the primary driver of deforestation; (3) the impact of a shock of pasture land on itself is virtually null at the initial stages, but increases over time, not requiring to clear extra areas of forest land but rather competing with crop land; (4) it seems that if not for all the Amazon Basin, at least in one cluster, cattle ranching and cropping could be competitive activities; and (5) we find out that in the long run pasture innovation is responsible for the major percent of the forecast error concern all land uses. It probably means that the destiny of distinct categories of land, in cluster one, is endogenously determine by activities connected to cattle. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Fed by demand for beef within Brazil and in global markets, the Brazilian herd grew from 147 million head of cattle in 1990 to ≈200 million in 2007. Eighty-three percent of this expansion occurred in the Amazon and this trend is expected to continue as the industry bounces back from a recent agricultural downturn. Intensification of the cattle industry has been suggested as one way to reduce pressure on forest margins and spare land for soybean or sugarcane production, and is the cornerstone of Brazil''s plan for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. To this end, federal credit programs and research and development activities in Brazil are aligning to support intensification goals, but there is no guarantee that this push for intensification will decrease the demand for land at the forest margin and as result curb CO2 emissions from deforestation. In this paper we use a spatially explicit rent model which incorporates the local effects of biophysical characteristics, infrastructure, land prices, and distance to markets and slaughterhouses to calculate 30-year Net Present Values (NPVs) of extensive cattle ranching across the Brazilian Amazon. We use the model to ask where extensive ranching is profitable and how land acquisition affects profitability. We estimate that between 17% and 80% of land in the Amazon would have moderate to high NPVs when ranched extensively if it were settled, i.e. if the rancher does not buy the land but acquires it through land grabbing. In addition, we estimate that between 9% and 13% of land in the Amazon is vulnerable to speculation (i.e. areas with positive NPVs only if land is settled and not purchased), which suggests that land speculation is an important driver of extensive ranching profitability, and may continue to be in the future. These results suggest that pro-intensification policies such as credit provision for improved pasture management and investment in more intensive production systems must be accompanied by implementation and enforcement of policies that alter the incentives to clear forest for pasture, discourage land speculation, and increase accountability for land management practices if intensification of the cattle sector is to deter new deforestation and displace production from low-yield, extensive cattle production systems in frontier regions of the Brazilian Amazon. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper analyzes the impact of agricultural technical efficiency on the propensity of farmers to convert natural land into agricultural plots, i.e., to deforest, in the Brazilian Legal Amazon (BLA). A two-step econometric approach is adopted. A bootstrapped translog stochastic frontier that is a posteriori checked for functional consistency is used to assess technical efficiency and these estimates are put into a land-use model to assess the impact of productivity on deforestation. Analysis of agricultural census tract data suggests that technical efficiency has a U-shaped effect: both less and more efficient farms use more land for their agricultural activities and so have a positive effect on deforestation. However, the majority of farms in the BLA are on the ascendant slope, so that efficiency implies more deforestation in the BLA. The poor environmental valuation of the Brazilian forest, the uneven land distribution, and the problem of the de facto openly accessed forested and “unproductive” lands in the BLA could explain the U-shaped effect of technical efficiency on the conversion of forested land into agricultural land. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Understanding actor-specific responsibility for deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon is key in adjusting policy and resource allocation in the face of current forest destruction. However, previous research shows that there is great variability in such assessments. To contribute to the ongoing discussions on forest conservation and rural development policies in the Amazon, this paper studies actor-specific deforestation and its environmental effects in four municipalities situated along the Transamazon Highway. We used spatially explicit methods that integrate a database of 8281 georeferenced properties with a time series of remote-sensing data covering four periods between 1986 and 2007. We also included landscape ecology metrics as improved indicators of the complex environmental effects of forest fragmentation. The analysis demonstrates that smallholders (defined as colonists who own less than 100ha of land) were responsible for 23% of total deforestation in the study region while accounting for 55% of the total properties. We also explored the relationship between property size and deforestation at the property level, finding that it closely follows a power distribution. Property deforestation increased with property size, while the percentage of property deforestation decreased. In spite of this, compliance with current legal requirements to maintain 50% of property forest cover was not statistically different between smallholders and largeholders. In comparison to municipalities dominated by medium- and large-scale ranchers, the smallholder-dominated municipality of Medicilândia showed better performance in all applied landscape metrics with well-established relationships with the provision of important environmental goods and services. Although all studied municipalities showed severe accumulated deforestation, Medicilândia experienced an abrupt decrease in municipal deforestation after 1999 to just 0.03%year−1, while municipalities dominated by larger holders maintained or increased their previous deforestation rates to between 0.90% and 1.34%year−1 in the same period. This indicates that the smallholders’ productions schemes in our study area might present potential for agricultural frontier stabilization based on improved land-use efficiency. The policy implications of our findings are discussed, especially with regard to the role of smallholders in productive forest conservation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper shows the results of an assessment on the current extent of Neotropical dry forests based on a supervised classification of MODIS surface reflectance imagery at 500-m resolution. Our findings show that tropical dry forests extend for 519,597km2 across North and South America. Mexico, Brazil and Bolivia harbor the largest and best-preserved dry forest fragments. Mexico contains the largest extent at 181,461km2 (38% of the total), although it remains poorly represented under protected areas. On the other hand, Brazil and Bolivia contain the largest proportion of protected tropical dry forests and the largest extent in continuous forest fragments. We found that five single ecoregions account for more than half of the tropical dry forests in the Americas (continental and insular) and these ecoregions are: the Chiquitano dry forests, located in Bolivia and Brazil (27.5%), the Atlantic dry forests (10.2%), the Sinaloan dry forests in Mexico (9.7%), the Cuban dry forests (7.1%) and the Bajio dry forests in Mexico (7%). Chiquitano dry forests alone contain 142,941km2 of dry forests. Of the approximately 23,000km2 of dry forest under legal protection, 15,000km2 are located in just two countries, Bolivia and Brazil. In fact, Bolivia protects 10,609km2 of dry forests, where 7600km2 are located within the Chiquitano dry forest ecoregion and protected by a single park. Low extent and high fragmentation of dry forests in countries like Guatemala, Nicaragua, Ecuador, Costa Rica and Peru means that these forests are at a higher risk from human disturbance and deforestation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Estimates of greenhouse-gas emissions from deforestation are highly uncertain because of high variability in key parameters and because of the limited number of studies providing field measurements of these parameters. One such parameter is burning efficiency, which determines how much of the original forest''s aboveground carbon stock will be released in the burn, as well as how much will later be released by decay and how much will remain as charcoal. In this paper we examined the fate of biomass from a semideciduous tropical forest in the “arc of deforestation,” where clearing activity is concentrated along the southern edge of the Amazon forest. We estimated carbon content, charcoal formation and burning efficiency by direct measurements (cutting and weighing) and by line-intersect sampling (LIS) done along the axis of each plot before and after burning of felled vegetation. The total aboveground dry biomass found here (219.3Mgha−1) is lower than the values found in studies that have been done in other parts of the Amazon region. Values for burning efficiency (65%) and charcoal formation (6.0%, or 5.98MgCha−1) were much higher than those found in past studies in tropical areas. The percentage of trunk biomass lost in burning (49%) was substantially higher than has been found in previous studies. This difference may be explained by the concentration of more stems in the smaller diameter classes and the low humidity of the fuel (the dry season was unusually long in 2007, the year of the burn). This study provides the first measurements of forest burning parameters for a group of forest types that is now undergoing rapid deforestation. The burning parameters estimated here indicate substantially higher burning efficiency than has been found in other Amazonian forest types. Quantification of burning efficiency is critical to estimates of trace-gas emissions from deforestation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The red ceramic industry in Brazil, consisting of over 7000 companies, requires large amounts of thermal energy, currently being met mainly by native fuelwood, which causes serious deforestation and soil erosion problems. The use of firewood does not allow achieving good energy performance in industrial ceramic kilns, causing high energy losses, low productivity and low quality products (bricks and roof tiles). Thus, to implement higher added value products, besides mitigate environmental problems caused by deforestation, the use of natural gas by the sector seems to be a promising alternative. Brazil’s natural gas market has grown at a fast pace in recent years. Its share in the country’s primary energy consumption increased from 3.7% to 9.3% between 1998 and 2007, compared to almost 21% in the world. The development of the Brazilian natural gas industry was grounded on stepping up supplies through integration with Bolivia from where natural gas is imported, together with fiscal incentives for promoting the demand. This paper estimates that the natural gas market that could be developed in the Brazilian red ceramic industry corresponds to less than 5% of the total industrial natural gas consumption, meaning that a major technological transformation of the country’s red ceramic industry will not severely affect the natural gas market equilibrium, contributing to reduce the country’s high rates of deforestation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper focuses on the impact of property rights insecurity on deforestation in the Brazilian Legal Amazon. Deforestation is considered as a risk management strategy: property rights insecurity reduces the present value of forests and fosters forest conversion into agricultural and pasture lands. Moreover, deforestation is the consequence of strategic interactions between landowners and squatters. Landowners clear the forest preventively in order to assert the productive use of land and to reduce the expropriation risk. Squatters invade land plots, clear the forest and may afterwards gain official recognition with formal property titles. A particular attention is paid to the measure of land property rights insecurity in the Brazilian context. It is assumed that property rights insecurity has a multidimensional character taken into account by the number of homicides related to land conflicts and expropriation procedures. Principal component analysis allows synthesising such information. An econometric model of deforestation is estimated on a panel dataset on the 1988¿2000 period and the nine states of the Brazilian Legal Amazon. The hypothesis that insecure land property rights contribute to higher rates of deforestation is not rejected when the simultaneity bias between insecure property rights and deforestation is addressed. This result questions the modality of the Brazilian land reform that considers forested areas as unproductive and thus open for expropriation procedures. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Patterns in property values provide strong signals about the future and sustainability of land use. This paper analyzes the determinants of land value in an Amazonian frontier settlement. We estimate hedonic price functions to identify factors that affect the value of farm properties in the western Brazilian Amazon. Distance to market explains nearly one-third of the variation in farm value, as predicted by the von Thünen model. After controlling for location relative to the central market and for municipality, we find that investment in the farms (as reflected in the stocking rate of pastures and the establishment of home gardens) has the next largest impact on land value. The value per hectare of land is negatively related to total lot size, suggesting that any economies of scale are outweighed by the cost of accessing remote corners of large properties. We do not find that land values are related to available measures of biophysical factors or to historic or current land use. Our results do not identify any premium for forest cover or for land uses considered to be more sustainable than pasture on the property itself. However, farm values are affected by neighboring land cover, specifically, the extent of barren land. Thus, local knowledge of factors contributing to future productivity, as summarized in land values, confirms that soil exhaustion can lead to a general decline in property values, while investments in a property both as a homestead and as a farm can help sustain frontier settlements. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The process of human occupation in Brazilian Amazonia is heterogeneous in space and time. The goal of this paper is to explore intra-regional differences in land-use determining factors. We built spatial regression models to assess the determining factors of deforestation, pasture, temporary and permanent agriculture in four space partitions: the whole Amazon; the Densely Populated Arch (southern and eastern parts of the Amazon), where most deforestation has occurred; Central Amazon, where the new frontiers are located; and Occidental Amazon, still mostly undisturbed. Our land-use data combines deforestation maps derived from remote sensing and 1996 agricultural census. We compiled a spatially explicit database with 50 socio-economic and environmental potential factors using 25km×25km regular cells. Our results show that the concentrated deforestation pattern in the Arch is related to the diffusive nature of land-use change, proximity to urban centers and roads, reinforced by the higher connectivity to the more developed parts of Brazil and more favorable climatic conditions, expressed as intensity of the dry season. Distance to urban centers was used as a proxy of accessibility to local markets, and was found to be as important as distance to roads in most models. However, distance to roads and to urban centers does not explain intra-regional differences, which were captured by other factors, such as connection to national markets and more favorable climatic conditions in the Arch. Agrarian structure results show that areas in which the land structure is dominated by large and medium farms have a higher impact on deforestation and pasture extent. Temporary and permanent agriculture patterns were concentrated in areas where small farms are dominant. We conclude that the heterogeneous occupation patterns of the Amazon can only be explained when combining several factors related to the organization of the productive systems, such as favorable environmental conditions and access to local and national markets. Agrarian structure and land-use analysis reinforced this conclusion, indicating the heterogeneity of land-use systems by type of actor, and the influence of the agrarian structure on land-use patterns across the region. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In the Brazilian Amazon, colonization is modifying the landscape at an exceedingly fast pace. Recently established households practice slash-and-burn agriculture and participate in the overall deforestation of the Amazon. Near the Transamazon highway, these family agricultural practices are the main cause of deforestation. The study presented here is oriented toward a better understanding of the impacts of farming practices on soil chemical composition. This study used a sampling design based on soil samples taken on farm plots, which had been submitted to a wide range of spatial and temporal sequential land-uses, including soils that were only recently denuded. The data shows that soil responses (organic matter (OM) content, fertility and mercury (Hg) retention) to these varied land-uses were relatively similar, suggesting that the most important event determining the responses was deforestation itself. This is well illustrated by the Hg content of soils, which changed immediately after deforestation and then only slightly thereafter. This phenomenon could also be seen in the base cation (calcium (Ca), potassium (K) and magnesium (Mg)) content which rose drastically after deforestation and tended to stay high for a period up to 10 years of cropping and pasture. This lasting cation rise is reflected by ammonium (NH4) displacement from surface soils. Indeed, inorganic nitrogen (N) is the most important nutrient loss upon deforestation. Nonetheless, when time spent in fallow was greater than 15 years, base cations (Ca, Mg, K), available N and phosphorus (P) contents tended to go back to initial forest soil values and in some cases to exceed them. Soil type was seen to mediate responses to land-use. Clay-sandy soils showed a lower content of available N and carbon (C) than clayey soils at the soil surface, a difference that was accentuated by deforestation. Conversely, the higher initial content of Hg in clayey soils was associated with a more important Hg loss from the soil's surface. By shedding light on the consequences of family practices for OM, nutrient status and Hg depletion, this paper gives a new perspective on soil responses to agricultural practices. These conclusions need to be addressed in a strategy plan to limit family land-use impacts on soils and the surrounding ecosystems. Recommendations for more sustainable land uses are proposed based on what has been learned about soil responses to local agricultural practices. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• We explore stakeholders perceptions on REDD+ finance in Brazil, Indonesia and Vietnam. • Actors agree that the lack of finance is not the most significant challenge. • Addressing funding gaps alone will not help to advance REDD+ policies. • Effective REDD+ implementation requires improved forest governance. • Recognizing and addressing drivers of deforestation are essential for REDD+ success. Financing REDD+ is complex, due to the need to seek answers not only to the question of who should finance REDD+, but also who should benefit from it. This paper examines the perceptions of REDD+ stakeholders in Brazil, Indonesia and Vietnam on different aspects of financing: who should finance REDD+ and who should receive REDD+ benefits for what. Our findings show these issues are political, driven by economic considerations at national level and – despite the narrative of inclusive, participatory decision making – are largely determined by governments. Lack of finance was thereby not always considered by national policy actors to be the most significant challenge during 2010–2019; rather other issues – like lack of knowledge on REDD+ by relevant actors; ineffective coordination between state agencies, the private sector and civil society; unclear tenure rights; ineffectively addressing the main deforestation drivers; low law enforcement capacity; and unclear benefit-sharing mechanisms – have also been perceived to impede REDD+ implementation and payment distributions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on environmental protection and legislation in Brazil. We evaluate major legislative actions, environmental fines and deforestation since January 2019. We show that 57 legislative acts aimed at weakening environmental protection in Brazil during the current administration, almost half of which in the seven-month period of the pandemic in Brazil, with September 2020 as the month with the most legislative acts (n = 16). These acts either deregulated or weakened current environmental legislation, with a number of them aimed at dismantling the main federal institutions in charge of environmental protection. We also found a 72% reduction in environmental fines during the pandemic, despite an increase in Amazonian deforestation during this period. We conclude that the current administration is taking advantage of the COVID-19 pandemic to intensify a pattern of weakening environmental protection in Brazil. This has the potential to intensify ongoing loss of biodiversity, greenhouse gas emissions, and the likelihood of other zoonotic disease outbreaks, and inflict substantial harm to traditional and indigenous peoples. We highlight the key role of the scientific community, media and civil society, national and international levels, in order to reverse these harmful actions. • 57 legislative acts have aimed to weaken the environmental legislation during the current administration. • 49% of changes in environmental legislation occurred during the 7-months period of the pandemic. • A reduction of about 70% of environmental fines occurred from March to August 2020. • Protected areas were weakened through exoneration of chief staff during the pandemic. • The administration is pushing rules and simplifying norms, especially since the pandemic began. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Terra Legal had no overall impact on deforestation as of 2012. • Deforestation levels increased following Terra Legal in highly registered counties. • Spatial spillovers from Terra Legal were minimal in the short term. • Temporary crop cultivation decreased with greater registered area. • Investment loans increased in counties with more area registered by small and medium farms. This paper estimates the early impacts of Terra Legal , a large property rights reform, on deforestation and farming in the Brazilian Amazon. Twelve and a half million hectares, more than 2.5% of the Brazilian Amazon, have been registered under this program. The establishment of property rights may increase a farmer's incentive to invest in his land and expand his farm due to a lower risk of expropriation. On the other hand, the enforcement of conservation requirements may be easier when farmers have legal titles to their land. We use county level data from 2007 to 2012 on farm registrations, deforestation, crop choice and bovine management to test the impact of the Terra Legal land reform. While we find no overall impact of the program on deforestation during the period in our sample, we do show that there is substantial heterogeneity in impacts across counties. Counties with the largest area registered do have an increase in the level of area deforested, but they also have a decrease in the rate of deforestation. We investigate the extent to which changes in deforestation are related to the amount of registration that occurs among small, medium and large farms, and find limited support for less deforestation among counties with more area registered by small farms; more area registered by large farms is associated with a higher level of deforestation, but a decreased deforestation rate. Our results suggest that land tenure reform can create incentives to decelerate deforestation. Farm size has a strong impact on the farm management changes generated by improved property rights; coupling land tenure reforms with incentives to intensify production rather than expand could lead to reduced deforestation, particularly among small farms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical forest loss currently contributes 5 to 15% of anthropogenic carbon emissions to the atmosphere. The large uncertainty in emissions estimates is a consequence of many factors, including differences in definitions of forests and degradation, as well as estimation methodologies. However, a primary factor driving uncertainty is an inability to properly account for forest degradation. While remote sensing offers the only practical way of monitoring forest disturbances over large areas, and despite recent improvements in data quality and quantity and processing techniques, remote sensing approaches are still limited in their ability to detect forest degradation. In this paper, a system is presented that uses time series of Landsat data and spectral mixture analysis to detect both degradation and deforestation in forested landscapes. The Landsat data are transformed into spectral endmember fractions and are used to calculate the Normalized Degradation Fraction Index (NDFI; Souza et al., 2005). The spectrally unmixed data are used for disturbance monitoring and land cover classification via time series analysis. To assess the performance of the system, maps of deforestation and degradation were used to stratify the study area for collection of sample data to which unbiased estimators were applied to produce accuracy and area estimates of degradation and deforestation from 1990 to 2013. The approach extends previous research in spectral mixture analysis for identifying forest degradation to the temporal domain. The method was applied using the Google Earth Engine and tested in the Brazilian State of Rondônia. Degradation and deforestation were mapped with 88.0% and 93.3% User's Accuracy, and 68.1% and 85.3% Producer's Accuracy. Area estimates of degradation and deforestation were produced with margins of error of 13.9% and 5.3%, respectively, over the 24 year time period. These results indicate that for Rondônia a decreasing trend in deforestation after 2004 corresponds to an increase in degradation during the same time period. • A methodology is presented for detecting forest degradation and deforestation. • The approach is based on spectral unmixing and time series analysis using Landsat. • Unbiased area estimates are calculated from 1990 to 2013 for Rondônia, Brazil. • High precision is achieved on the area estimates of the disturbance classes. • A decrease in deforestation in 2004 corresponded to an increase in degradation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]