Search

Farming systems face dual pressures of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to mitigate climate change and safeguarding food security to adapt to climate change. Building soil organic carbon (SOC) is proposed as a key strategy for climate change mitigation and adaptation. However, practices that increase SOC may also increase nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions, and impact crop yields and on-farm income. A comprehensive assessment of the effects of different management practices on trade-offs between GHG emissions and agricultural systems profitability under climate change is needed. We aimed to: (1) analyze the long-term trends of SOC and N 2 O emissions, and ascertain whether the croplands of the study region are net GHG sources or sinks under climate change; (2) quantify the GHG abatement on a gross margin basis; (3) identify effective management practices that could achieve a win-win strategy; and (4) investigate sources of uncertainty in estimates of GHG emissions and gross margins under climate change. APSIM was used to simulate the effects of three crop residue retention rates (10%, 50% and 100%), and six representative crop rotations (wheat-canola, wheat-field pea-wheat-canola, wheat-field pea-wheat-oats, wheat-wheat-barley, wheat-wheat-canola, and wheat-wheat-oats) under two Shared Socio-economic Pathways scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) using climate projections from 27 GCMs. GHG emissions and gross margins from 1961 to 2092 were assessed across 204 study sites in southeastern Australia. Our results showed that residue retention can turn the soil from a carbon source (10% retention, 304–450 kg CO 2 -eq ha−1 yr−1) to a carbon sink (100% retention, −269 ∼ −57 kg CO 2 -eq ha−1 yr−1), and the potential of carbon sequestration was partly offset by concomitantly increased N 2 O emissions. The wheat-wheat-canola rotation with full residue retention was shown to be a win-win solution with both large potential of GHG abatement and high gross margin compared with other rotations. Spatial analysis showed that the southeastern part of the study region, with higher rainfall, had higher gross margins, while the drier northwestern part had greater GHG emission reduction potentials. Although climate change led to increased GHG emissions and decreased yields for some crops, these adverse effects were overweighed by the higher SOC and yield advantages from full residue retention. This study emphasizes the significant potential for agronomic management to maximize gross margin and reduce GHG emissions under climate change in southeast Australia. Results from this study could be used by farmers and policymakers to mitigate climate change without compromising agroecosystem profitability. [Display omitted] • APSIM was used to simulate the effects of residue retention and crop rotation on GHG emissions and gross margins. • Retaining all crop residues could turn the soil from a carbon source to a carbon sink, and benefit gross margins. • Enhancement of residue retention on GHG abatement overweighed adverse effects of climate change under SSP245 and SSP585. • The wheat-wheat-canola rotation was the most beneficial in terms of GHG mitigation and profitability compared with others. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sequestering atmospheric carbon in soils is considered a key climate change mitigation strategy and including cover crops into cropping systems is commonly promoted as a management change that can increase soil organic carbon (SOC). Projecting SOC changes under climate change when cover crops are integrated into a cropping system is important because climate is a key driver of SOC dynamics and projected changes in climate are uncertain. Further, projecting SOC changes can provide landholders with information on the risk associated with the use of cover crops to generate carbon credits considering the inherent uncertainty in SOC changes under a changing climate. The Agricultural Production SIMulator was used to simulate SOC and yields of a typical crop rotation, with and without a cow pea cover crop, at 204 sites in the Riverina region of Southern Australia. Sowing cover crops reduced crop yields and increased SOC relative to the crop rotation without cover crops. GHG emissions associated with indirect land use change due to reduced crop yields and N 2 O emissions from the cover crop meant that sowing cover crops was unlikely to provide climate change mitigation. The number of carbon credits generated by participating in the soil carbon method of the Australian government's emissions reduction program varied greatly across the region with some sites not generating any credits. The implications of these results are discussed with respect to climate change mitigation and the risk of entering a SOC trading program when costs of compliance are high and the ability to generate carbon credits is uncertain. • Cover crops replace traditional fallow periods in dryland cropping systems. • Cowpea cover crops reduced the yield of cereal, oilseed and legume crops. • Total GHG emissions were generally greater than SOC sequestration. • Replacing fallows with cowpeas unlikely to reduce GHG emissions. • Climate change mitigation was variable across the region of interest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]