Search

We present a systematic review of the scientific production on climate adaptation in Brazil, using quantitative and qualitative methodologies. The analysis of adaptation categories indicated a good balance between social (38 %) and institutional (33 %) adaptation actions, with a lesser share of physical/infrastructure adaptation (25 %). Assessed impacts tend to focus on higher temperature or heat events (21 %), mainly with regard to human health, along with droughts or water resources issues (20 %), particularly agricultural production. The studied biomes or environments showed a predominance of the most populous areas, such as urban (27 %) and coastal (17 %), indicating the need to target climate adaptation actions at the various Brazilian natural biomes, which, together, are addressed in only 30 % of the papers analysed (all six biomes combined). Indexes development and documentary analysis were predominant methodologies. The dialogue between science and society must be improved, especially with public management, in the production, execution and dissemination of climate adaptation actions. Nature-based solutions were listed as emerging solutions for addresing climate change impacts, acting both for mitigation and adaptation. Popular participation was pointed out by several authors as fundamental in the joint construction of these actions, as well as the provision of information on access to climate finance, which may be of interest to both public and the private sectors. • A review of the scientific production in climate adaptation in Brazil was performed. • Indexes development and documentary analysis were the predominant methodologies. • Only 30 % of papers evaluated the various natural biomes in Brazil, such as the Amazon. • Engineering fields need better integration with the human aspects of climate change. • Popular participation and the dialogue between science and society must be enhanced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The energy sector has a vital role in climate change mitigation. In Brazil, the electricity generation sector is strongly dependent on hydropower generation, but thermoelectricity contribution has increased leading to a more carbon-intensive electricity mix. This trend will be aggravated with the expected significant increase in the electricity demand until 2050 and with the potential limitation of hydropower generation expansion due to environmental constraints. The extent of the role of solar power to overcome these challenges in the future has been hidden by energy modelling assumptions. A review on how solar energy has been considered in different models, was performed. The research further assessed the relevance of assumptions by developing an optimization model to explore the cost-effectiveness of solar electricity large-scale deployment up to 2050. The work found that most published solar energy assessments based on long-term energy modelling for Brazil currently are not updated regarding several assumptions, leading to models results where solar appears with a marginal role. The energy modeling exercise shows solar PV is cost-effective for Brazil, providing more than 36% of total electricity in 2050. This is a different conclusion from the energy and power modeling exercises conducted until now, where solar deployment has been underestimated. • The work assesses how energy model inputs have affected solar cost-effectiveness for Brazil. • Assumptions on hydropower expansion and technology costs critically affect solar cost-effectiveness. • Energy model exercises have underestimated the potential of solar energy in Brazil. • Solar energy may have an important role in the future Brazilian power sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Graphical abstract Highlights • Specialisation at national level hampers mitigation-adaptation integration. • Local actors prioritize climate adaptation but lack of influence hinders action. • Decentralisation affects cross-level power differentials in land and climate domains. • Dominant national level communities exclude localities from policy decisions. Abstract This article proposes an innovative theoretical framework that combines institutional and policy network approaches to study multi-level governance. The framework is used to derive a number of propositions on how cross-level power imbalances shape communication and collaboration across multiple levels of governance. The framework is then applied to examine the nature of cross-level interactions in climate change mitigation and adaptation policy processes in the land use sectors of Brazil and Indonesia. The paper identifies major barriers to cross-level communication and collaboration between national and sub-national levels. These are due to power imbalances across governance levels that reflect broader institutional differences between federal and decentralized systems of government. In addition, powerful communities operating predominantly at the national level hamper cross-level interactions. The analysis also reveals that engagement of national level actors is more extensive in the mitigation and that of local actors in the adaptation policy domain, and specialisation in one of the climate change responses at the national level hampers effective climate policy integration in the land use sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Integrating the source to sink BECCS chain into an energy system optimization model. • CCS cost-storage curves are created to analyze cost-competitiveness of BECCS. • Assess the dynamic relation between negative emissions and land use change emissions. • Total system costs decrease when BECCS is modelled endogenously. • Source-sink matching shows higher CO 2 injection rates (250 Mt CO 2) can be reached than mentioned in scientific literature (up to 135 Mt CO 2). • Unrestricted modeling of BECCS increases demand for biomass. Even though this comes with a higher EF due to LUC emissions, still net GHG benefits are larger. Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) can lead to negative emissions, and is seen as an important option to decarbonize energy systems. Its potential decarbonization contribution depends on low-carbon resource availability, its ability to meet end-use demand and the geological storage potential to safely trap CO 2. Here an energy system model is used to assess the BECCS decarbonization potential in Brazil, considering uncertainty in low-carbon biomass resources, and storage potential, injection rates and costs of CO 2 storage, assessed in eight scenarios. A spatial explicit analysis is done to make improved estimates on the storage potential, injection rates, and costs for CO 2 storage in the Rio Bonito saline aquifer of the Paraná basin. Although there are large differences in storage potential (12–117 Gt CO 2) and costs (on average 5–15 $/t CO 2), the accumulated volume of CO 2 stored between 2010 and 2050 is 2.9 Gt CO 2 for all scenarios, with injection rates around 240 Mt CO 2 in 2050. This shows that BECCS is a cost-competitive option to decarbonize the Brazilian energy system, even under pessimistic estimates of CO 2 storage potential and costs, and low biomass availability. The cheapest sink locations are selected, in the high development scenario. When CCS development is low, injection rates are the limiting factor. Locations are selected with the highest injection rates, even though sometimes more expensive. When CO 2 storage is limited, total system costs increase, mainly because decarbonization of the industry and freight transport sector relies on more expensive decarbonization options such as green hydrogen. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Different long-term mitigation scenarios indicate carbon capture and storage associated with biomass (BECCS) might play a significant role in climate-change mitigation efforts, especially when it comes to long-term temperature stabilization. The ethanol fermentation process is considered as an early opportunity for BECCS deployment due to its low capture costs. Being a major ethanol producer, Brazil stands in a privileged position for the development of this technological option. However, previous scientific studies indicate several challenges for the deployment of a CO 2 transportation network in the country, mostly as a result of the associated seasonality of the sugarcane industry and consequent idleness observed in the carbon transportation infrastructure. To address those issues, this study developed and applied a methodology to design an optimum carbon network considering an alternative concept: the incorporation of new CO 2 emission sources aiming at guaranteeing adequate operational flows throughout the year, minimizing idleness and reducing transportation costs. Findings indicate that the incorporation of new CO 2 emission sources reduces transportation costs. The inclusion of CO 2 from both the cogeneration process and fossil sources results in an average levelized cost of transportation of 26 US$/tCO 2 (54% lower than transportation costs in the baseline case). However, this reduction in transportation costs does not compensate for the increase in capture costs, resulting in higher levelized abatement costs for the whole system. Indeed, cases including cogeneration have reached a levelized abatement cost of approximately 125 US$/tCO 2 (84% higher than in the baseline case). Nevertheless, by reducing transportation costs the strategy adopted in this study could facilitate the development of a carbon transportation network. Additionally, the integration of fossil-derived CO 2 has proved beneficial to the system, allowing improvements in flow regularity and reducing idleness problems related to the seasonality of biogenic sources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although the role of subnational governments in multi-level climate governance is recognized by scholars and policymakers, we still know little about whether and why some subnational jurisdictions in the Global South decide to engage in decentralized climate action. This article yields new insights on this question by explaining variations in the decision of Brazilian states to establish legal frameworks for jurisdictional REDD+, enabling them to receive transnational climate finance, in the early stages of the emergence of REDD+ in Brazil between 2007 and 2017. We draw on key informant interviews with policy entrepreneurs and actors to understand the roles played by (1) the transnational pathways of influence associated with the regime complex for REDD+ and (2) the strategies adopted by state-level policy entrepreneurs in subnational REDD+ readiness policy processes in Brazil in five case studies (Amazonas, Acre, Mato Grosso, Pará and Amapá). According to respondents, credible market incentives were the key influence for state governors to adopt a jurisdictional framework to channel REDD+ funds, but transnational norms and material assistance played important mediating roles. The perceived credibility of market incentives was influenced by: (1) the presence of policy entrepreneurs at the state level; (2) the timing of strategies employed by policy entrepreneurs; (3) the policy beliefs held by the governor regarding environmental issues; and (4) evidence regarding availability of REDD+ finance for states. • Subnational governments in Brazil have played an increasingly important role in jurisdictional REDD+ policymaking. • Credible market incentives were key for Amazonian state governors to adopt jurisdictional REDD+ legal frameworks. • Credibility of market incentives was shaped by policy entrepreneurs at the state level and the timing of their strategies. • Other key factors shaping perceptions were the governors' policy beliefs and evidence of availability of REDD+ finance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work evaluates implications of incorporating LCA-GHG (life cycle assessment of GHG emissions) into the optimisation of the power generation mix of Brazil through 2050, under baseline and low-carbon scenarios. Furthermore, this work assesses the impacts of enacting a tax on LCA-GHG emissions as a strategy to mitigate climate change. To this end, a model that integrates regional life cycle data with optimised energy scenarios was developed using the MESSAGE-Brazil integrated model. Following a baseline trend, the power sector in Brazil would increasingly rely on conventional coal technologies. GHG emissions from the power sector in 2050 are expected to increase 15-fold. When enacting a tax on direct-carbon emissions, advanced coal and onshore wind technologies become competitive. GHG emissions peak at 2025 and decrease afterwards, reaching an emission level 40% lower in 2050 than that of 2010. However, if impacts were evaluated through the entire life cycle of power supply systems, LCA-GHG emissions would be 50% higher in 2050 than in 2010. This is due to loads associated with the construction of plant infrastructures and extraction and processing of fossil fuel resources. Thus, taxes might not be as effective in tackling GHG emissions as shown by past studies, if they are only applied to direct emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to quantify the environmentally sustainable and economically feasible potentials of agricultural and agro-industrial residues to generate electricity via direct combustion in centralised power plants in Brazil. Further, the energy savings and greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction potential of replacing natural gas-based electricity by bioenergy have been assessed. To this end, a methodology has been developed based on an integrated evaluation, incorporating statistical and geographical information system (GIS)-based analysis, and a life-cycle-assessment approach. Results reveal that the environmentally sustainable generation potential is nearly 141 TWh/year, mainly concentrated in the South, Southeast, and Midwest regions of the country. Sugarcane, soybean and maize crop residues are the major feedstocks for available bioenergy. On the other hand, the economic potential is far lower, accounting to 39 TWh/year. The total GHG mitigation is nearly 18 million tonne CO 2 e and could reach 64 million tonne CO 2 e yearly, if the technical potential is considered. The gap between technical and economic potentials implies that constraints to bioenergy are not related to a lack of resources, but rather associated to economic, logistical, regulatory and political barriers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: It is regularly argued that CCS deployment is more likely to occur in developed countries associated with high fossil fuels dependence levels, Greenhouse Gases (GHG) emissions sources and to the implementation of specific taxes to GHG. Somewhat counter-intuitively, though, two of the most progressive countries with respect to CCS deployment, Norway and Brazil, only partially fulfill these criteria. Our preliminary analysis suggests that CCS in both cases has been applied as a strategic tool for economic competitiveness, rather than a climate change mitigation option, with public and/or private regulatory arrangements providing initial incentives to take the technology off the ground. This has important implications for policy making since it, by alter our notion of the drivers for action, may call for alternative configurations of incentive structures and policy instruments. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• A dynamic climate change impact evaluation framework is proposed. • Bamboo bio-concrete is a good climate change mitigation and adaptation alternative. • Bamboo bio-concrete presents a reliable carbon-thermal energy solution. • Bamboo bio-concrete provides a promising alternative for developing countries. This study aims to present a framework to quantify the climate change impact during the buildings' life cycle. The proposed framework is tested on a bamboo bio-concrete (BBC) building and compared with conventional constructive systems, in a Brazilian housing project considering six cities using Dynamic Life Cycle Assessment (DLCA) and thermal energy simulation. The increase of BBC in the building envelope, from 10 cm to 20 cm, leads to the improvement of carbon stock and reduces operational carbon. The BBC can be considered a potential alternative for climate change mitigation and adaptation and developed where bamboo is an available source. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Tree species richness, composition and carbon stock recover during forest succession. • Endemic and threatened species richness show no relationship with forest age. • After 20 yr, secondary forests recovered on average 16–52% of old-growth forests values. • 20-yr-old secondary forests are potentially sequestering 1.78 Mg C ha−1 yr−1. • Recovery time predictions are far beyond the targeted by national restoration efforts. The Atlantic forest is one of the most threatened tropical forest ecosystem in the world, and despite current knowledge, its ability to recover structure and diversity after a disturbance is still a matter of debate. Quantifying carbon stocks and species diversity in forests at different successional stages and assessing their recovery capacity is important for designing local conservation and restoration strategies. We investigated the resilience potential of lowland Atlantic forests at landscape-scale using a chronosequence approach in 160 0.1-ha permanent plots, three old-growth and 13 second-growth forests at various stages of recovery. We assessed whether tree species richness, including species with high conservation values (endemic and threatened), composition and aboveground carbon stock recover along succession; and estimated how much of the old-growth forest values the 20-yr-old secondary forests had attained and the time needed to reach old-growth forests levels. Species richness, composition and carbon stock tended to recover along the chronosequence, while endemic and threatened species showed no relationship with forest age. After 20 yr of succession, the secondary forests recovered on average 52% of total species richness, 21% of species composition and only 16% of carbon stock of old-growth forests. We predicted that the absolute recovery of lowland Atlantic forests would take eight decades to thousands of years, much longer than the 10–40 years targeted by national efforts to restore degraded ecosystems. Despite slow recovery, these regenerating forests are important for climate mitigation and biodiversity conservation as they potentially sequester 1.78 Mg C ha−1 yr−1 and harbor a number of species comparable to old-growth forests. Our findings indicate that achieving landscape restoration and conservation goals through passive restoration can be a challenge, highlighting the need to invest in management plans in areas with relatively low resilience and high biodiversity and carbon conservation values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]