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Abstract: Tools to predict fracture risk are useful for selecting patients for pharmacological therapy in order to reduce fracture risk and redirect limited healthcare resources to those who are most likely to benefit. FRAX® is a World Health Organization fracture risk assessment algorithm for estimating the 10-year probability of hip fracture and major osteoporotic fracture. Effective application of FRAX® in clinical practice requires a thorough understanding of its limitations as well as its utility. For some patients, FRAX® may underestimate or overestimate fracture risk. In order to address some of the common issues encountered with the use of FRAX® for individual patients, the International Society for Clinical Densitometry (ISCD) and International Osteoporosis Foundation (IOF) assigned task forces to review the medical evidence and make recommendations for optimal use of FRAX® in clinical practice. Among the issues addressed were the use of bone mineral density (BMD) measurements at skeletal sites other than the femoral neck, the use of technologies other than dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, the use of FRAX® without BMD input, the use of FRAX® to monitor treatment, and the addition of the rate of bone loss as a clinical risk factor for FRAX®. The evidence and recommendations were presented to a panel of experts at the Joint ISCD-IOF FRAX® Position Development Conference, resulting in the development of Joint ISCD-IOF Official Positions addressing FRAX®-related issues. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Purpose: Physical activity helps maintain mobility, physical functioning, bone mineral density (BMD), muscle strength, balance and, therefore, may help prevent falls and fractures among the elderly. Meanwhile, it is theoretically possible that physical activity increases risk of fractures as it may increase risk of falls and has only a modest effect on BMD. This review aims to assess the potential causal association between physical activity and osteoporotic fractures from an epidemiological viewpoint. Methods: As the medical literature lacks direct evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with fracture end points, a meta-analysis of 13 prospective cohort studies with hip fracture end point is presented. The current evidence base regarding the link between exercise and fracture risk determinants (namely, falls, BMD, and bone quality) are also summarized. Results: Moderate-to-vigorous physical activity is associated with a hip fracture risk reduction of 45% (95% CI, 31-56%) and 38% (95% CI, 31-44%), respectively, among men and women. Risk of falling is suggested to be generally reduced among physically active people with a potential increased risk in the most active and inactive people. Positive effects of physical activity on BMD and bone quality are of a questionable magnitude for reduction of fracture risk. Conclusion: The complexity of relationship between physical activity and osteoporotic fractures points out to the need for RCTs to be conducted with fractures as the primary end point. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: A sample size of 30 degrees of freedom (df) for bone mineral density (BMD) precision studies may be insufficient for reliably categorizing change. Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate the effect of precision study sample size on identifying change in clinical patients. Least significant change (LSC) from 198 spine and 193 total hip scan-pairs was used to categorize change for 1420 patients undergoing BMD monitoring. Relative to this reference change fraction (RCF), LSC limits were identified that gave specified deviations from the RCF (−25% to +25%). Confidence limits (95% and 80%) for these LSC values (5 to 500 df) were estimated using ‘bootstrap’ samplings. A sample size providing 140 df is needed to avoid overdetecting spine change by 5% and 150 df to avoid underdetecting spine change by 5% with 95% confidence limits. A sample size of 30 df resulted in up to a 12.5% overdetection and 10.0% underdetection of spine or hip change based upon 95% confidence limits. In conclusion, assessing the effect of precision study sample size on classifying change in monitored patients is an important element of the precision assessment that is neglected in current recommendations. Sample sizes larger than 30 df are required if low levels of categorization error are to be achieved. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Osteoporosis is a major public health problem in the Western countries and is projected to have a similar impact in the Middle East. It has been suggested that peak bone mineral density (BMD), a major determinant of osteoporotic fractures later in life, may be lower in this part of the world compared with the Western world. The purpose of the Iranian Multicenter Osteoporosis Study was to determine peak bone mass in a randomly chosen sample of healthy Iranian subjects. A total of 5201 participants (2340 males, mean age 42.7±13.8) were recruited based on randomized clustered sampling from all regions of five major cities across the country. In women, peak lumbar BMD (1.182±0.127 g/cm2) occurred in the 29- to 33-yr age group, whereas peak total femur BMD (1.006±0.126 g/cm2) occurred in the 32- to 36-yr age group. In men, peak lumbar BMD (1.181±0.153 g/cm2) and femoral BMD (1.096±0.159 g/cm2) both occurred in the 20- to 24-yr age group. When standardized to mg/cm2 units using established formulas, Iranian peak bone mass values are comparable with that of Western countries and are generally higher than that of Eastern Asian and Middle Eastern countries. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• We aimed to determine the association between percentage body fat and incident fractures, separately for men and women. • We included 14,129 participants from the EPIC-Norfolk Prospective Population Cohort Study. • In women, a lower percentage body fat was associated with a higher risk of any fracture and specifically of hip fracture. • In men, the risk of any fracture did not change with percentage body fat, while the risk of hospitalisation for a hip fracture increased with percentage body fat. • These findings add to the important evidence base regarding the risk of a serious and prevalent adverse outcome. This cohort study aimed to determine the association between body fat percentage (BF%), incident fractures and calcaneal broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA). Participants were drawn from the EPIC-Norfolk Prospective Population Cohort Study (median follow-up = 16.4 years). Cox models analysed the relationship between BF% and incident fractures (all and hip). Linear and restricted cubic spline (RCS) regressions modelled the relationship between BF% and BUA. 14,129 participants (56.2 % women) were included. There were 1283 and 537 incident all and hip fractures respectively. The participants had a mean (standard deviation) age of 61.5 (9.0) years for women and 62.9 (9.0) years for men. Amongst men, BF% was not associated with incident all fractures. While BF% < 23 % (median) was not associated with hip fractures, BF% > 23 % was associated with increased risk of hip fractures by up to 50 % (hazard ratio (95 % confidence interval) = 1.49 (1.06–2.12)). In women, BF% < 39 % (median) was associated with up to 32 % higher risk of all fractures (1.32 (1.13–1.44)), while BF% > 35 % was not associated with this outcome. Higher BF% was associated with lower risk of incident hip fractures in women. Higher BF% was associated with higher BUA amongst women. Higher BF% up to ~23 % was associated with higher BUA amongst men. Higher BF% is associated with lower risk of fractures in women. While there was no association between BF% and all fractures in men, increasing BF% >23 % was associated with higher risk of hip fractures in men. This appears to be independent of estimated bone mineral density. Fracture prevention efforts need to consider wider physical, clinical, and environmental factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]