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• We assessed the climate change impact on wheat production in China. • We employed the FGLS, DOLS, and D–K estimation techniques. • Temperature negatively affected wheat production in the long–run. • Precipitation contributed positively to wheat production in the long-run. • Agro–chemical input (fertilizer use) enhanced wheat production in the long–run. Northern and Southern regions are the two major wheat production belts of China. Agro–climatic resources have changed significantly in recent years, threatening staple food production in these regions. As a result, it is critical to investigate the long–term effect of climate change and agri–inputs on wheat production in China's top six wheat producing provinces (Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu, Anhui, and Hubei) from 1995 to 2020. The estimated long-run results from the FGLS, DOLS, and D–K estimators revealed that climatic factors, specifically temperature, had a negative impact on wheat production, while precipitation had a positive impact. The findings also revealed that agrochemical inputs, such as fertilizer, increases wheat production, whereas pesticide use decreases wheat production significantly. The results from the Dumitrescu–Hurlin panel causality test showed a bidirectional causality between rainfall, fertilizer use, and cultivated area with wheat production, while a unidirectional causality association is running from labor force to wheat production. The current study provides several critical policy recommendations for China's sustainable food production through green agricultural practices and robust climate mitigation strategies. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Irrigated agriculture is strongly affected by climate change and management. • Management adaptation may achieve sustainable agricultural production by the 2030s. • Climate change mitigation will determine agricultural productivity by the 2080s. • Further adaptation or strong mitigation is needed to secure food productivity. Future irrigated agriculture will be strongly affected by climate change and agricultural management. However, the extent that agricultural management adaptation can counterbalance negative climate-change impacts and achieve sustainable agricultural production remains poorly quantified. Such quantification is especially important for the Indus basin, as irrigated agriculture is essential for its food security and will be highly affected by increasing temperatures and changing water availability. Our study quantified these effects for several climate-change mitigation scenarios and agricultural management-adaptation strategies using the state-of-the-art VIC-WOFOST hydrology–crop model. Our results show that by the 2030s, management adaptation through improved nutrient availability and constrained irrigation will be sufficient to achieve sustainable and increased agricultural production. However, by the 2080s agricultural productivity will strongly depend on worldwide climate-change mitigation efforts. Especially under limited climate-change mitigation, management adaptation will be insufficient to compensate the severe production losses due to heat stress. Our study clearly indicates the limits to management adaptation in the Indus basin, and only further adaptation or strong worldwide climate-change mitigation will secure the Indus' food productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]