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Among ocular infections, trachoma is the main cause of blindness. Repeated conjunctival Chlamydia trachomatis infections lead to trichiasis, corneal opacification, and visual impairment. Surgery is often needed to relieve discomfort and preserve vision; however, a high postoperative trachomatous trichiasis (PTT) rate has been observed in various settings. We wanted to know why, whether PTT rates could be reduced, and how to manage the PTT that occurs. We performed a search of the literature. Of 217 papers screened, 59 studies were identified for inclusion as potentially relevant, the majority having been excluded for not directly concerning PTT in humans. Preventing PTT is a major challenge. Only one published trial, the STAR trial in Ethiopia, has reported a cumulative PTT rate <10% one year after surgery. The literature on the management of PTT is sparse. Though no PTT management guidelines are available, high-quality surgery with a low rate of unfavorable outcomes for PTT patients is likely to require enhanced training of a smaller group of highly-skilled surgeons. Based on the surgical complexity and the authors' own experience, the pathway for patients suffering from PTT should be studied further for improvement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agriculture is under transformation in sub-Saharan Africa where millions still do not have access to a healthy diet. Policy makers in this region should find ways to accelerate agricultural transformation while increasing access to healthy diets. Optimizing agriculture's public budget stands out as a handy option. By combining a dynamic computable general equilibrium model and a multi-criteria decision-making technique, and applying them in the context of Ethiopia, this paper points to an important trade-off that policy makers should keep in mind. An optimal allocation of agriculture's public budget aimed at increasing agri-food output, creating off-farm jobs and reducing rural poverty, which are agricultural transformation objectives, will help to reduce the cost of a healthy diet, allowing around 2 million more Ethiopians to afford it. This number could even be higher should policy makers allocate the budget optimally aiming at only lowering the cost of a healthy diet, but at the cost of reducing household income and slowing down transformation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a study that focuses on alleviating the impacts of grid outages in Ethiopia. To deal with grid outages, most industrial customers utilize backup diesel generators (DG) which are environmentally unfriendly and economically not viable. Grid-integration of hybrid renewable energy systems (HRES) might be a possible solution to enhance grid reliability and reduce environmental and economic impacts of utilizing DG. In this study, an optimization of grid integrated HRES is carried out for different dispatch and control strategies. The optimal power supply option is determined by performing comparative analysis of the different configurations of grid integrated HRES. The result of the study shows that grid integrated HRES consisting of photovoltaic and wind turbine as renewable energy sources, and battery and hydrogen as hybrid energy storage systems is found to be the optimal system to supply the load demand. From the hydrogen produced on-site, the FC generator and FCEVs consume 143 620 kg/yr of hydrogen which is equivalent to 394 955 kg/yr gasoline fuel consumption. This corresponds to saving 1 184 865 kg/yr of CO 2 emissions and 605 703 $/yr revenue. Besides, this system yields 547 035.4 $/yr revenue by injecting excess electricity to the grid. The study clearly shows the economic and environmental viability of this new technology for implementation. • Modeling and optimization of grid-integrated HRES including grid-reliability and dispatch control. • Storage of excess electricity produced from renewable energy sources in batteries. • Onsite production of renewable hydrogen with excess electricity produced from renewable energy sources. • The role of renewable hydrogen for simultaneous decarbonization of electricity and transportation sectors. • Minimizing overall operating costs by injecting excess electricity to the grid. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Language acquisition and learning literatures favour mother-tongue education policies, particularly in the early years of schooling. However, English Medium Instruction (EMI) remains a popular language policy position in multilingual contexts. This paper studies EMI transition policies using a longitudinal dataset from Ethiopia, by leveraging regional variation in education language policy reforms for causal identification. Employing a dynamic value-added model, this paper shows that students in schools using English as a medium of instruction have lower mathematics test scores (−0.25 standard deviations) compared to students in mother tongue education schools. Furthermore, English medium learners do not perform any better in their English test scores compared to mother tongue learners. These findings are in line with the international education literature on skill development, learning and second language acquisition. The main results support the prolonged utilisation of mother tongue instruction in primary education. These results are particularly relevant for policy makers in linguistically diverse contexts. • This paper studies the impact of English medium instruction policies on children's learning outcomes in the context of Ethiopia. • A value-added model of student attainment is used to estimate the impact of English medium instruction on student learning outcomes. • The main results show that mother tongue instruction has a positive impact on student learning. • Social and political contexts matter. As such, there is not one optimal language policy for all multilingual contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we studied the occurrence of ionospheric irregularities over Ethiopia as the consequence of the intense geomagnetic storm of March 2015 and June 2015. Total Electron Content (TEC) data obtained from six Ethiopian GPS reciever stations and those data were used to derive the ionospheric irregularities proxy indices, e.g.,rate of change of TEC (ROT) and ROT index (ROTI). These indices were used to characterize the intensity of the fluctuation of total electron content. ROTI was used as a criterion of ionospheric irregularities that took place during the storm. These indices were characterized along side with the disturbance storm time (Dst),the Interplanetary Electric Field (IEFy) and the SYM-H index (high resolution version of Dst) from ground-based magnetometers to see the effect of geomagnetic storm on horizontal component of geomagnetic field. Irregularities manifested in the form of fluctuations in TEC. Prompt penetration of electric field (PPEF) modulated the behaviour of irregularities during the initial and recovery phases of the geomagnetic storms. As a result,it was observed that the irregularities in the ionosphere of Ethiopia was in the range from weak to moderate. These irregularities generally occurred during the initial and recovery phases of the storm at all selected stations. The effect of electric field is found to depend on the local time at which the IMF Bz turned into southward. Therefore,east - west fluctuating Ey in March storm main phase is associated with suppression of irregularities in all stations and eastward Ey in the main phase of June 2015 is associated with small scale irregularity formation. The generation (inhibition) of irregularities is related to the effect of eastward (westward) storm time electric field disturbance dynamo electric fields and prompt penetration electric fields that created favourable (unfavourable) conditions for the generation of irregularities by uplifting (lowering) the F region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ethiopia has one of the most ambitious energy expansion programmes but to achieve these goals, policies must be aimed at localizing the development and manufacturing of energy technologies. However, the country is dependent on importing solar and wind energy technologies. The aim of this paper is therefore to explore the challenges of locally developing and manufacturing solar and wind energy technologies, the necessary assets and policy instruments that can facilitate localization of energy technologies. This was achieved through survey questionnaire and interview from different stakeholders. The results show that the region has very limited capability of developing and manufacturing of solar and wind energy technologies because of lack of investment capital, under developed solar and wind supply chain, lack of skilled workforce and others. To overcome these challenges, financial incentives for research and development, solar and wind based power generation, manufacturing are considered as the top policy instruments with other policies included in this paper. Therefore, a proper implementation of the internationally proven policy instruments recommended in this paper are urgently needed in the region in order to achieve one of the sustainable development goals that stipulate facilitation of the implementation of modern, affordable and sustainable energy to the society. • Ethiopia has very limited capability of developing solar and wind energy technologies. • The results show that Ethiopia has low level of local industrial assets. • Lack of investment capital is the top challenge for the technologies development. • Different financial incentives are key policy instruments for local capacity development. • Effective implementation of the recommended policies can have significant co-benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate-induced migration is an increasingly pressing issue in many African regions, as rising temperatures and extreme weather events have caused the displacement of vulnerable populations. This is especially so in Eastern Africa and the Horn of Africa, particularly Kenya and Ethiopia, where extreme weather events have led to rangeland degradation, crop failures, water shortages, and food insecurity. Hence, there is a perceived need to understand these processes better. Against this background, this paper reports on a study investigating the processes associated with climate-induced migration in Kenya and Ethiopia. The research method used consisted of an expert-driven assessment approach, which assesses the causes of climate-induced migration in Kenya and Ethiopia and its human and social implications on local communities. Data were collected from 110 experts residing and working on climate and migration-related issues in Ethiopia and Kenya via e-mail, whose knowledge of the current situation has enabled the identification of some important trends. The results show that climate change is a primary trigger of migration both internally and externally. The high number of migrants, many of whom living within levels of poverty in their home areas is straining resources and services in the receiving regions. Their presence is also leading to increased competition for jobs and resources. Additionally, it has increased urban poverty, as many migrants have little access to living space and health care. This paper provides a welcome addition to the literature in that it lists the causes and implications of climate-induced migration and, by doing so, fosters a better understanding of the current crisis and its implications. The implications of this paper to the overall knowledge of climate change and migration are twofold. First, it highlights the need for governments, international organisations, and other stakeholders better to understand the complex linkages between climate change and migration. Secondly, it shows the usefulness of better recognising how climate change can drive migration and the other factors shaping the decision to migrate. The paper concludes by stating the urgent need for policies and programmes that support climate change-induced migrants. Also, it draws attention to the usefulness of promoting sustainable development in their origin countries and destinations, so that migration is not necessarily perceived as the only response to climate change. A further conclusion is that there is a perceived need for providing access to resources such as education, health care, and livelihood opportunities and establishing mechanisms to ensure a safe and dignified return for those who choose to do so. • Climate change is a significant driver for migration in Kenya and Ethiopia. • Droughts, conflicts, and crop failures are among the key drivers of migration. • Male migration is more prominent than a female one. • Limited access to productive resources leads to outmigration from rural areas. • Lockdowns associated with the COVID-19 pandemic did not cause any major migration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we describe anatomical structures of 11 fossil wood samples collected from two localities (Brown Sands and Flat Sands) of the Usno Formation, in the Lower Omo valley, Ethiopia. On the basis of former stratigraphy and new investigation, notably Ar/Ar dating of intercalated tuffs and palaeomagnetic studies, the samples are dated between 3.33 and 3.21 Ma. The identified wood samples have been collected within two distinct stratigraphic layers deposited during this time range. The oldest one from Brown Sands includes Albizia sp., Entada sp. and a possible Combretaceae or Leguminosae. The youngest assemblage from White Sands includes many representatives of Combretaceae including Combretum molle and Terminalia sp. associated with Erythrina sp. These assemblages strongly differ from other Miocene and Pliocene wood assemblages known from Ethiopia. Palaeoenvironmental interpretation of the identified tree taxa support affinities with the extant mid-elevation Albizia forest replaced by Combretum/Terminalia woodland in about one hundred thousand years. In the Lower Omo valley, the more humid character of the Pliocene vegetation strongly contrast with the arid Acacia/Commiphora steppe widely spread over the region today. Such past vegetation attests to much wetter and favourable climatic conditions under seasonal climate. However significant changes in the floristic composition of tree cover occurring within a timespan of hundred thousand years, plays in favour of climatic and palaeo-environmental instabilities at a time when Australopithecus afarensis existed in the Turkana basin and flourished elsewhere in Ethiopia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The implementation of a distribution generation (DG) system is used to meet rapidly increasing electricity demand while reducing power reliability issues. Power from the distribution system may be interrupted for a variety of reasons, but DG can provide power during those interruption hours. The main goal of this paper is to design and model a 500 kW solar farm in Arba Minch, Ethiopia. PVsyst software is used to assess and model a 500 kW solar system. Maximum solar irradiation of 2,067 kW/m2 is achieved at a tilt angle of 15°. The annual energy production is 878 MWh with an efficiency ratio of 83 %. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the governance of transport infrastructure interfaces. These are connection or touching points that bring together different city systems, technical characteristics and governance regimes. The empirical evidence comes from Ethiopia's new rail systems and is based on experiences in two cities, the capital Addis Ababa and the second largest city Dire Dawa. The techno-spatial and organisational boundaries that define infrastructure interfaces are under-researched across disciplines. Yet it is at these hotspots of urban governance where many critical questions for cities arise: who governs, what to prioritise, how to coordinate? Based on a multiple case study approach, this paper combines socio-spatial analysis with institutional analysis of infrastructure governance. The findings include the identification of highly centralised and hierarchical governance and coordination dynamics, as well as the critical role of a new bureaucracy (the Ethiopian Railway Corporation) structured around core railway engineering competence rather than urban transport and development expertise. More generally, it is a techno-political alliance in Ethiopia which shapes urban development and the rollout of infrastructure at an unprecedented speed and scale. • Transport interfaces are useful entry points to analyse urban governance. • Ethiopia managed to design and build complex rail systems at a very fast pace. • As a trade-off there was very little coordination with other sectors & stakeholders. • The federal government centralised decisions and city authorities were overruled. • Urban development in Ethiopia is highly technocratic & backed by political leaders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we investigate behavioral constraints to savings among smallholder farmers in rural Ethiopia. Increasing savings by overcoming such behavioral constraints has been documented to have positive effects on various outcomes such as health, education, and agricultural investments. We causally identify a strong increase in savings to a soft commitment device in the form of a moneybox with a regular savings plan. In our randomized field experiment, we also provide personalized feedback consisting of recommendations to self-set saving goals. These recommendations trigger increases in savings of up to 36 percent. In a detailed analysis of the behavioral characteristics driving these results, we find a strong and robust link between financial confidence and savings behavior. In particular, the savings of underconfident individuals are less than 2/3 of the savings of overconfident individuals — an association stronger than other behavioral traits such as risk-lovingness and present-biasedness. Remarkably, the effect of our personalized feedback is particularly strong for underconfident individuals. We discuss possible underlying mechanisms, rule out a set of alternative behavioral explanations, and address crowding-out behavior into other forms of saving. 1 1 We particularly thank Niels Kemper for valuable discussions and inputs during the design of the intervention. Additionally, we thank Jasper Haller, Jan Nimczik, Maria Isabel Santana, and seminar participants at the University of Mannheim and at the Verein für Socialpolitik for very helpful comments and suggestions. Special thanks go to our excellent survey teams from the University of Mekelle, in particular the team leader Dr. Melaku Behre and his team. Jonas Casper, Onur Eryilmaz, Adelina Garamow, Yilma Tedesse, and Philipp Wind provided excellent research assistance. Financial support from SFB 884 Political Economy of Reforms is acknowledged. This study obtained IRB approval from the University of Mannheim "Ethikkommission". The paper was previously circulated under the title "Underconfidence and the Use of Persuasive Messages in the Attainment of Savings Goals". The study is registered at AEA RCT Registry under # AEARCTR-0000613. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the persistent effect of the 1998–2000 Ethiopia–Eritrea conflict on human capital accumulation. The empirical findings indicate that exposure to conflict during early childhood increases the probability of grade repetition (for boys and girls) and school dropout (especially for boys), and decreases student achievement in mathematics and language scores (mainly for girls) a decade later. Identification of the effect is based on a difference-in-difference approach that exploits temporal and regional variation of the conflict. These effects are robust when including region-specific trends, school, grade, class, and teacher level fixed effects, and other student and family characteristics. The paper provides the first estimates on the long-term effect of exposure to conflict at early (before school-age) childhood on test scores of primary school students. • I examine the causal effect of Ethiopia-Eritrea conflict on human capital accumulation in Ethiopia. • The analysis uses school survey data from Ethiopia and applies reduced form difference in-difference analysis. • Exposure to the conflict decreases maths and language scores and increases likelihood of grade repetition and school dropout. • Exposure to the conflict during early childhood persists more than exposure at a later ages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ethiopia has an urban land lease policy in place to facilitate the transfer of land for residential, commercial and industrial purposes. Because of the lease policy, many cities have experienced significant expansion through massive conversion of agricultural land. Although the lease policy has been in place for nearly three decades, little is known about its effectiveness in promoting sustainable urban land use. This paper examines the effects of the lease policies on urban land use efficiency (ULUE). Building on the institutional credibility thesis, this paper investigated the performance of land institutions using the urban land use efficiency approach. Remote sensing data was used to investigate urban land use efficiency through spatiotemporal analysis of land use change. Analysis of satellite imagery was performed using ArcGIS. Moreover, quantitative and qualitative data from secondary sources were studied. The study findings show that in almost all study areas, urban land use efficiency is low, which is mainly reflected in the forms of land hoarding, land banking, illegal land grabbing, informal settlement, land use fragmentation and urban sprawl. A significant portion of the land transferred for various urban uses has remained vacant or underutilised for years, in direct violation of the provisions of the lease policy. This means that the lease policy has hardly been enforced to ensure efficient urban land utilization. This demonstrates the ineffectiveness (dysfunctionality) of the existing land institutions. It is concluded that some elements of the lease policy have evolved into an empty institution, i.e., a symbolic institutional arrangement that is largely ignored by socioeconomic and political actors. • The effect of urban lease policy formulation and implementation on urban land use efficiency was analyzed. • The analysis was conducted using remote sensing data and the institutional credibility thesis. • The results show urban land use inefficiency in Ethiopia due to gaps in land policies formulation and implementation. • The lease policy lacks relevant provisions to ensure sustainable urban land utilization. • Empty institutions exist primarily because the enforcement of policies leaves much to be desired. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agricultural innovations are inclusive when they are used by any member of society who wants to use them. Conversely, agricultural innovations that can only be used by a specific privileged group within society can be characterized as "exclusive". The first objective of this paper is to examine the inclusivity of agricultural innovations in Ethiopia, using national representative data and considering a wide portfolio of innovations resulting from the collaborative research between CGIAR and its national partners. Second, we also examine how measurement error may affect how we characterize the inclusivity of agricultural innovations. We use nationally-representative survey data from Ethiopia (collected in 2018/19) in which best-practice measures of the adoption of a large number of agricultural innovations were embedded, including the adoption of CGIAR-related improved maize varieties measured using two different approaches: subjective, self-reported survey data; and objective DNA fingerprinting of crop samples taken from the same farmers' plots. A rich set of household variables is also collected in the survey, which allows characterizing the types of farmers that are adopting different innovations, and the extent to which conclusions regarding the inclusivity of innovations depends on the measurement of the latter. Many innovations are not disproportionately more likely to be adopted by male, larger, richer, or more connected farmers. When using self-reported data on adoption of improved maize varieties, adoption appears positively correlated with having larger landholdings and households with lower female participation in agriculture, and negatively correlated with poorer households (being among the bottom 40% of consumption distribution). Substituting survey responses with the results of DNA fingerprinting these correlations disappear, with farm size, gender and poverty status no longer predictive of adoption. The results suggest the potential value of offering a menu of innovations to farmers to increase inclusivity, as it allows each farmer to be a critical consumer of potential innovations and select those that best correspond to their own needs and constraints. We also highlight how important data quality is in ensuring we have correct information about inclusive innovation. [Display omitted] • Nationally representative data on adoption of agricultural innovations for Ethiopia. • Examines importance of representative samples and valid measurement in shaping understanding of inclusive innovation. • Patterns of inclusiveness are innovation-specific and can be subject to measurement error. • Objective measures (e.g. DNA fingerprinting for crop variety adoption) can provided unbiased picture of inclusive innovation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agroforestry represents a potentially multi-beneficial approach to land management as it may enhance a farming household's income and income stability simultaneously with nutrition security and climate change mitigation. However, our comprehension of the specific characteristics within agroforestry systems that bolster economic productivity remains limited, exacerbating the challenges of land management for smallholder livelihoods. This complexity is compounded by the potential influence of carbon revenue, adding an additional layer of intricacy to the equation. This paper aimed to identify the key economic determinants of multistrata agroforestry in sub-Saharan Africa with and without potential carbon revenue. A quantitative survey of 135 farmers was performed regarding their multistrata agroforestry systems with contrasting histories in three regions of Ethiopia. The carbon sequestration rate and carbon stocks in agroforestry were assessed on one-fifth (27) of the farms. The relative importance of hypothetical determinants of agroforestry systems' economic performance was modeled using descriptive statistics and generalized linear models. Farm size and fertilizer usage were the primary drivers of the farm economy, but farm net income was also highly influenced by the richness and diversity of the income sources. In addition, tree diversity had a positive impact on the net income, whereas the proportion of legume trees and trees with a large diameter correlated negatively with the income. Potential carbon revenue at prices of US$40 tCO 2 −1 and US$100 tCO 2 −1 increased income for multistrata agroforestry farms without significantly changing the magnitude of the identified key determinants. This suggests that the most economically viable agroforestry systems inherently possess a strong capacity for carbon sequestration, effectively serving as carbon sinks. Consequently, carbon revenue serves as a compelling financial incentive for the adoption of these agroforestry systems. Ultimately, this research underscores the pivotal role of biological and product diversity in shaping economic productivity within multistrata agroforestry systems. Moreover, it highlights the accessibility of diversity management for smallholder farmers, even under conditions of resource constraints. [Display omitted] • The economic determinants of agroforestry systems remain not well understood. • The determinants with and without potential access to carbon market were identified. • The farm income was mainly affected by farm size and fertilizer use. • Diversity of the income sources was key determinant regardless of carbon revenue. • Diversity is manageable for all smallholder farmers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The newest infection is a novel coronavirus named COVID-19, that initially appeared in December 2019, in Wuhan, China, and is still challenging to control. The main focus of this paper is to investigate a novel fractional-order mathematical model that explains the behavior of COVID-19 in Ethiopia. Within the proposed model, the entire population is divided into nine groups, each with its own set of parameters and initial values. A nonlinear system of fractional differential equations for the model is represented using Caputo fractional derivative. Legendre spectral collocation method is used to convert this system into an algebraic system of equations. An inexact Newton iterative method is used to solve the model system. The effective reproduction number (R 0) is computed by the next-generation matrix approach. Positivity and boundedness, as well as the existence and uniqueness of solution, are all investigated. Both endemic and disease-free equilibrium points, as well as their stability, are carefully studied. We calculated the parameters and starting conditions (ICs) provided for our model using data from the Ethiopian Public Health Institute (EPHI) and the Ethiopian Ministry of Health from 22 June 2020 to 28 February 2021. The model parameters are determined using least squares curve fitting and MATLAB R2020a is used to run numerical results. The basic reproduction number is R 0 = 1.4575. For this value, disease free equilibrium point is asymptotically unstable and endemic equilibrium point is asymptotically stable, both locally and globally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract With Universal Health Coverage (UHC) now entrenched among the top global development priorities, questions arise as to the conditions under which politicians commit to UHC and why certain strategies for health financing and access are favoured over others. The Ethiopian government has been piloting and scaling-up Community-Based Health Insurance (CBHI) for the informal sector since 2010 and is establishing Social Health Insurance for formal sector workers as a means of achieving UHC. CBHI covers 11 million people making it one of the largest health insurance schemes in Africa. This paper employs a process tracing methodology to examine the political drivers of the adoption and evolution of state health insurance based on 28 key informant interviews conducted between 2015 and 2018 with politicians, policymakers and donor officials. The paper highlights the inadequacy of existing theories—focusing on interest group mobilisation, electoral competition and bureaucratic actors—for explaining the Ethiopian case. Instead the paper proposes an 'Adapted Political Settlements' framework that explains the state's push to expand CBHI and stalled progress on SHI. This framework highlights the interests and ideas of the ruling coalition as important drivers of reform. In a context of ruling party dominance and minimal threat from electoral competition, the ruling coalition has sought to build political legitimacy through the delivery of socioeconomic progress, including health services. The policy idea of health insurance, meanwhile, has secured elite commitment due to its fit with deeply held ideas within the ruling coalition concerning the importance of self-reliance and resource mobilisation for development. Finally, the centralisation of power within the ruling coalition prior to 2012 enabled the emergence of a long-term developmental vision and the marginalisation of opposition to health insurance, while fragmentation of the ruling coalition since 2012 has led SHI to stall. Highlights • Ethiopia is pursuing Universal Health Coverage through health insurance. • Interest group, electoral and bureaucratic theories cannot explain the policy choices. • 'Adapted Political Settlements' framework explains CBHI expansion and SHI stalling. • Key factors include ruling coalition dominance and coherence, and party ideology. • The Ethiopian scheme was inspired by a study tour to Rwanda's Mutuelles de Santé. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • This paper uses exogenous variation during the growing season to identify the role of income on discounting in the Highlands of Ethiopia. • We take advantage of the availability of panel data to control for individual specific sources of heterogeneity. • We find that income variations driven by anomalies in rainfall are strong predictors of farmers' subjective discount rates. • We estimate that a 10% increase in negative rainfall anomalies, increases subjective discount rates by 20%. • Discounting is significantly correlated with the likelihood of undertaking agricultural investments. Abstract We have combined farm household panel data, weather data and discount rates, as measured by a hypothetical survey question, to estimate the impact of income on discounting. This paper has found that income variation driven by anomalies in rainfall during the main growing season is a strong predictor of farmers' subjective discount rates. Farmers prefer a smaller immediate reward to a larger deferred one when affected by negative income shocks, while they display lower discount rates when the income shocks are positive. We have also found that higher discount rates are negatively correlated with profitable agricultural investments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Environmental problems and health risks stemming from the household use of traditional fuels remain a significant challenge for households living in poverty in developing countries. This paper applies a logit model to analyze the driving factors of a household's decision regarding the adoption of solar energy technology. To do this, the study uses cross-sectional data collected from two kebeles in the neighborhoods of Woliso, a town of Oromia regional state in central Ethiopia. The results reveal that a great number of factors were found to have positive effect on solar energy technology adoption. The findings of this paper establish that wealthy and more educated households are more likely to adopt solar energy technology compared to poorer ones. Male-headed households are less likely to adopt solar energy technology compared to female-headed counterparts. The main implication of this study is that there is a scope for poverty reduction policies and adult education that targets household heads and spouses to promote adoption of solar energy technology. Therefore, policymakers could target appropriate measures in order to improve household wealth, education, and awareness. In this way, there is a much higher chance for them to successfully promote solar energy use by rural households. Highlights • Econometric model used to analyze determinants of household solar PV technology adoption. • Increase in the household wealth found to increase the likelihood of solar PV adoption. • Higher level of education of head and spouse increased the odd of solar energy adoption positively. • Education and poverty reduction policies promote household uptake of solar energy technology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Much has been written about the increasing contributions of non-governmental actors, such as environmental NGOs (ENGOs), to sustainable development, particularly in forest and environmental governance. However, little empirical evidence exists concerning the role and impact of these new actors in policy decisions where pluralist politics are lacking. By presenting the case of forest policy-making in Ethiopia, this paper illustrates the strategies of ENGOs, and how and to what extent they have impacted policy decisions, in a ‘semi-authoritarian’ context, where public policies are typically the exclusive mandate of governmental actors. We applied the policy arrangement approach (PAA), enriched with an ENGO classification, to analyze and explain the dynamics and nuances of policy processes. Our study finds that ENGOs do have an influence on policy-making under ‘semi-authoritarianism’, even without being formally invited to do so. However, influencing policy under such circumstances requires a circumspect approach and follows more complex pathways than the conventional policy-making steps in a democratic context. When the formal avenue for their participation in the policy-making process is restricted, these actors employ indirect strategies of catalyzing policy processes, such as demonstrating innovative policy approaches by implementing pilot projects, documenting and communicating field evidence and best practices, forming strong networks with like-minded actors, forging alliances with key decision makers, and investing sufficient human and financial resources to push the adoption of a new policy. The findings and the conclusions drawn in this paper are consistent with the conceptual framework employed. The PAA has proved to be a suitable analytical tool to understand and explain policy processes in various polities, from pluralist democracies to (semi-)authoritarianism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the relationship between land tenure security and land degradation. It investigates how land degradation is viewed, and, in turn, managed by rural land users in Ethiopia through a case study in two districts of the Amhara region. Many have argued that Ethiopia’s land tenure system lacks the tenure security required to stimulate investment for enhanced agricultural productivity and sustainable land use. The state’s continued ownership of land has been widely criticized by scholars and international development agencies, arguing that it has created a high degree of tenure insecurity – which, is believed to be responsible for the lack of investment in land and the lack of environmental conservation. However, this paper argues that the narrative that the farmers’ lack of tenure security contributes to the widespread land degradation problem appears to be misleading. While the literature suggests an inverse relationship between land tenure security and land degradation, the evidence in this paper contradicts this and mobilises relevant data to explain why this is the case. Despite tenure insecurity, poor people in the two Amhara study sites are making substantial investments to halt and reverse land degradation – though to quite differing degrees – and by so doing, are simultaneously investing in the security of their land tenure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This paper provides fresh evidence on the ex durante impacts of an armed conflict on households' food security in Ethiopia. • We also assess potential mechanisms and hence evaluate impacts on livelihood activities and access to food markets. • Seven months into the conflict, we find that the war increased the probability of moderate to severe food insecurity by 37 percentage points. • We show that exposure to one additional battle leads to 1 percentage point increase in the probability of moderate to severe food insecurity. • The conflict has significantly reduced access to food through supply chain disruptions and by curtailing non-farm livelihood activities. • Non-farm and wage related activities were affected the most whereas farming activities were relatively more resilient. Ethiopia recently experienced a large-scale war that lasted for more than two years. Using unique High-Frequency Phone Survey (HFPS) data, which span several months before and after the outbreak of the war, this paper provides evidence on the immediate impacts of the conflict on households' food security. We also assess potential mechanisms and evaluate impacts on proximate outcomes, including on livelihood activities and access to food markets. We use difference-in-differences and two-way fixed effects estimation to compare trends across affected and unaffected regions (households) and before and after the outbreak of the war. Seven months into the conflict, we find that the war was associated with a 37 percentage points increase in the probability of moderate to severe food insecurity. Using the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), we show that exposure to an additional battle leads to a 1 percentage point increase in the probability of moderate or severe food insecurity. The conflict was associated with significant reduction in access to food through supply chain disruptions and by curtailing non-farm livelihood activities. Non-farm and wage related activities were affected the most, whereas farming activities were relatively more resilient. Our estimates, which likely underestimate the true average effects on the population, constitute novel evidence on the near-real-time impacts of large-scale conflict. Our work highlights the potential of HFPS to monitor active and large-scale conflicts, especially in contexts where conventional data sources are not immediately available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2015, a video of policemen beating up an Ethiopian-born first Lieutenant in the Israeli Defense Forces, was published by the Israeli media and triggered a massive protest against police brutality and discrimination of the Ethiopian community. The current study aimed to understand the meaning the members of the Ethiopian community attribute to the protest, and its' relation to their experiences within the Israeli society. The paper is based on data gathered through interviews with 19 young Ethiopian Israeli adults. The analysis revealed that the participants' interaction with Israeli society is characterized by a shared experience of discrimination and racism, which shaped their perception of protest as a means of speaking out, strengthening a collective identity and achieving feelings of empowerment. However, individual differences were found in the way the participants believed their protest should be conducted. Findings suggest that an understanding of protest should take into account not only shared group experience but also illuminate individual differences. Universalist understandings of protest should be widened to include an examination of how protest can inform us about the social and historical process of relations between a minority group and the majority group. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest Landscape Restoration (FLR) is globally recognized for the restoration of diverse forest ecosystem services across extensive landscapes. Many studies have emphasized the importance of cross-sectoral policy alignment. However, current initiatives aimed at restoration face obstacles due to fragmented management structures across different sectors. This study argues that bridging this gap necessitates a deeper understanding of policy mix elements and their characteristics. This involves scrutinizing policy instruments in various domains to gain insight into complex policy design problems. Using Ethiopia as a case, we identified four sectoral policies due to their relevance to FLR. Within these policy domains, a total of 11 major goals and 46 instruments were identified. We employed a methodological approach known as the Cross-Impact Matrix (CIM) to analyze the interaction between goals and instruments as a specific characterization of the policy mix in FLR-related policies. The results reveal varying levels of coherence based on 121 interactions among eleven goals in the CIM. Additionally, the consistency of instruments was analyzed through 2116 interactions among 46 instruments. As a result of these interactions, specific regulatory instruments, like the acquisition and use of agricultural land, negatively impact FLR efforts by introducing the risk of overlapping and insecure land use rights, including those related to the 2018 Forest Development, Conservation, and Utilization Proclamation and others. This overlap potentially creates challenges when implementing other policy instruments that support FLR. On the other hand, the REDD+ policy creates a positive and conducive environment for implementing other instruments. In conclusion, this paper underscores the importance of considering the complex nature and dynamics of real-world challenges in shaping the policy mix for FLR. • The factors that shape policy mix for Forest landscape restoration (FLR) are complex and dynamic, hence requiring attention. • The interaction among regulatory, procedural, economic, and informational policy tools influence the outcomes of FLR. • Key policy instruments trigger ripple effects in the policy mix, needing attention to address trade-offs and align synergies. • A methodological approach like cross-impact matrix is important for assessing the coherence and consistency of policy mix. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Market systems interventions are an increasingly common approach to agricultural development. While the impacts of these interventions on poverty reduction and market participation by smallholders has been studied, little is known about their contributions to building climate resilience. This paper analyzes the compatibility of market systems and climate resilience approaches to agricultural development, using the United States government’s Feed the Future program as an empirical case study. Drawing on case studies in Ethiopia and Honduras, the paper examines the synergies and tensions between market systems and climate resilience approaches. The study finds that the market systems interventions have contributed to climate resilience, but also evidence of significant limitations due to fundamental tensions between market system and resilience approaches in terms of what their goals are, who they target, and how they approach their objectives. This study has important implications for the design and implementation of climate resilience programs and policies, as well as the expectations that agricultural development programs will be able to build climate resilience. Recognizing the inherent tensions that exist between market systems approaches and resilience approaches and explicitly discussing the trade-offs between the goals, target audiences, and primary mechanisms of each approach would represent an important step forward if market systems programs are going to contribute to climate resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides a multi-scalar examination of the Ethiopian coffee sector and its pursuit of climate resilience. Concern is growing about the potential impact of climate change on Arabica coffee in Ethiopia and the 25 million livelihoods it supports. Arabica coffee has a relatively narrow envelope of climatic suitability and recent studies suggest that the area of bioclimatically suitable space for the species in its native Ethiopia could decline dramatically in the coming decades. We adopt a critical perspective on resilience that reflects on the situated nature of the ecology/science of coffee and climate change and the operation of social, economic, and discursive power across scales, paying particular attention to the differentiated impacts of climate change and associated resilience strategies. This analysis begins by reviewing Ethiopia’s Climate Resilient Green Economy strategy and argues that the current lack of attention to coffee is inappropriate considering the coffee sector’s vulnerability to climate change, economic importance and association with forests. The paper then examines the contemporary coffee sector which provides the context for reflecting on three potential responses to the threat climate change poses; a spatial response from farmers, adaptive farm management responses such as changing shade levels and the development of the country’s genetic resources to cultivate improved varieties. The analysis explores the disconnect between the interventions emerging from national and international institutions and the local context. The multi-scale approach highlights the presence of complex normative trade-offs associated with pursing climate resilience strategies and reinforces the importance of appreciating the dynamics which influence decision-making in the country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the healthcare needs, access to healthcare, and healthcare strategies of Ethiopian migrant domestic workers (MDWs) in Lebanon, drawing on qualitative empirical research. The analysis focusses on four types of health care needs: minor illnesses, pregnancies, serious illnesses (such as cancer, tuberculosis or heart problems), and emergencies (due to accidents, suicide attempts or assaults). Predictably, access to healthcare is distinctly differentiated according to an MDW's status as a documented, freelancer, or undocumented worker. Drawing on the concepts of systemic health inequities and inter-personal racial discrimination, the paper provides evidence for inequitable access to healthcare experienced by Ethiopian women in Lebanon. I identify the specific forms of exclusion they experience and develop a matrix for analysis of systemic inequities in access to healthcare differentiated by migrant status. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Ethiopia implemented widespread agricultural inteventions in the past decades. • We estimate the yields and food security impacts of the interventions implemented by the Ethiopian Agricultural Transformation Agency (ATA) between 2011 and 2016. • We combine project and remote-sensing data with a nationally representative household panel survey. • Our identification strategy exploits the temporal and geographic variation in the roll-out of the ATA interventions. • Results show that large-scale agricultural interventions are associated with higher agricultural yields and better food security outcomes. In the past decades, the Government of Ethiopia implemented widespread interventions with the objective of modernizing the agricultural sector and stimulating transformative growth. This paper assesses the agricultural yields and food security impacts of those interventions. Combining project and remote-sensing data with a nationally representative household panel survey, we identify impacts by exploiting the temporal and geographic variation in the roll-out of the interventions implemented by the Ethiopian Agricultural Transformation Agency from 2011 to 2016. Results show that large-scale agricultural interventions are associated with higher agricultural yields and better food security outcomes. These outcomes underscore the linkages that persist between agricultural development and food security for rural households living in mostly agrarian economies and the potential for systems-wide interventions to catalyze agricultural transformation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Ethiopia's food system sustainability was estimated at 0.46 on a 0–1 scale in 2020. • Ethiopia's sustainability falls short of the 0.75 satisfactory benchmark. • Social and Environmental dimensions exceed a discrete sustainability level of 0.5. • Economic, and food and nutrition security dimensions receive low scores, below 0.5. In the face of continuous population growth, environmental degradation, climate extremes and enduring abject poverty, ensuring sustainability of the food system is of crucial importance. As such, developing a comprehensive measure of sustainability has been of a great interest for both researchers and policy makers so as to measure progresses and evaluate the outcomes overtime. This paper attempts to assess the food system sustainability (FSSI) in Ethiopia over the past two decades from 2001 to 2020. A composite index was constructed by aggregating 24 selected food system indicators in the four food system dimensions: environmental, economic, social, and food and nutrition security. 'Distance to a Reference' method was employed for data normalization, whereas equal weighting and linear aggregation methods were used for aggregating the indicators in each dimension. The result showed that in a scale from 0 to 1, better score was achieved in the social dimension (0.66), followed by environmental dimension (0.52), and food and nutrition dimension (0.43), with the least recorded in the economic dimension (0.31) in 2020. The overall Food System Sustainability Index for the most recent year (2020) was estimated to be 0.46 which is far below a satisfactory level of food system sustainability (0.75) as per OECD Classification of Sustainability Indices. The result calls for policy interventions aimed at improving the overall food system sustainability in light of the four food system dimensions, in general, and the weak dimensions, in particular. Given the predictable need for more food production in the face of growing populace, interventions that enhance synergies and limit the potential trade-off among the food system outcomes, as well as striking the right balance should be the policy direction for Ethiopia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study of inequality of opportunity and its main drivers is a major task in the field of economics. This paper aims to estimate a comprehensive database of socio-economic variables for five African countries (Ethiopia, Ghana, Uganda, Malawi, and Nigeria) using imputation techniques, with the ultimate goal of approximating the degrees of intergenerational transmission and social mobility. To achieve this goal, the transition matrix methodology is used in three domains: education, occupation, and income. The results show that the domain with the highest levels of mobility, in general terms, is education, and the lowest, income. Key findings reveal significant variations in the levels of social mobility across these domains depending on the studied country, such as in income mobility with respect to parents: Ethiopia is at the top with a high percentage of individuals experiencing upward mobility, and Malawi at the bottom, with a high percentage of individuals experiencing downward mobility. Moreover, the mobility levels of individuals tend to be higher for mothers than for fathers, which implies a greater improvement when compared to the most vulnerable group, i.e., women. No very significant differences have been found in the levels of mobility between baron sons and women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biomass remains the most important energy carrier of rural households in low- and middle-income countries, but its indoor combustion has grave impacts on human health and its extraction is associated with negative effects on ecosystems. Currently, robust and comprehensive data are lacking to trace biomass flows from ecosystems to consumption in households and quantify the related services. This impedes analyses of the social and environmental impacts of biomass use. By developing a source-to-service approach, this paper analyses the provision of domestic energy services in three villages in rural Ethiopia using a socio-metabolic perspective. We combine quantitative and qualitative methods to study the dynamics of domestic biomass use for energy and examine social and environmental implications. We find that the average household consumes 84 GJ/year of biomass (15 GJ per capita/year). Space heating, food and drinking water preparation combined require 86% of domestic energy. Improved cookstoves can reduce domestic energy use by 12%. Our results open new avenues for advancing the scientific understanding of rural energy systems dependent on biomass. These insights are essential to enhance research on sustainable energy systems in rural, bioenergy-dependent areas and may also prove useful in designing policies and innovations to improve provisioning of energy services. [Display omitted] • On average rural households in 3 studied villages in Ethiopia consume 84 GJ/yr of bioenergy • Space heating, food and drinking water preparation consume almost nine tenth of the total domestic energy • Family size, land and livestock assets are all significantly related with energy consumption • Adoption of improved cookstoves can be linked to a reduction in energy consumption of 12% • Combining MEFA and HANPP offers an avenue to analyse bioenergy systems from source to service [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper firstly analyzes the land use - land cover (LULC) in Lake Ziway watershed (Ethiopia) and quantifies the changing patterns from 1973 to 2014 using Landsat images. Secondly, the paper estimates sediment yields using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model). It also assesses and estimates water abstraction from Lake Ziway using survey data. The study shows that the conversions from woodlands into agricultural lands and settlement areas are the major detected LULC changes. Of the total area of the watershed, agricultural lands and settlement areas together increased from 57% in 1973 to 75% in 2014 at the expense of woodlands whose areas decreased from 26.16% to 6.63% in the study periods. The study also shows that water abstraction and sediment loads are increasing at Lake Ziway watershed. The major driving forces behind these LULC changes and the impacts on the lake natural condition are anthropogenic factors such as population growth, land policy changes and deforestation. Increasing demands for more land and water resources, i.e., land for settlements and cultivation, wood for fuel and charcoals, and water for irrigation and municipal water supply, are the underlying causes for the observed changes on the watershed resources. Thus, if the existing scenarios of human pressures are left neglected without management interventions, severe watershed degradations will continue to further affect the watershed's resources including the hydrology. Therefore, responsible government institutions should start mobilizing the local communities along with providing financial and material supports for watershed rehabilitation through afforestation and soil and water conservation activities. Additionally, the free-access practices for water use should be replaced by user-charge policy to regulate water abstractions in order to adequately sustain the water level of Lake Ziway and its feeder rivers. In this respect, this study provides firsthand information to policy makers and planners to put in place a comprehensive land and water use plan and regulations against the unruly human actions in the watershed before irreversible losses might happen to Lake Ziway and its watershed resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we investigated the occurrence of GPS Loss of Lock(LOL) events and its characteristics in Ethiopia using three dual-frequency geodetic GPS receivers in Bahir Dar (geographic 11.599°N,37.359°E), Debark (geographic 13.150°N, 37.893°E), and Assosa (geographic 10.051°N,34.553°E) during the period from January to December for the year 2015. On average at the three stations,we confirmed that LOL events occurred within the hours of 19:00 LT-25:00 LT,while the maximum number of LOL events had been localized within the hours of 21:00 LT-23:00 LT. This implice that LOL events were more common during the post-sunset hours. On monthly basis, a maximum number of LOL events were observed in the months of April,and March, with a limited number of LOL events observed in the remaining months of the year at low latitudes,such as Bahir Dar, Debark, and Assosa stations. Seasonally, at the three stations and throughout 2015 studied maximum number of LOL occurrences were observed during equinoxes and substantially decreased during solstices. In particular, the months around the December solstice recorded the smallest number of LOL events for each station included here. We found that over the length of the 12 months of data included in this analysis, 551,782 and 160 LOL events had been observed in the Bahir Dar, Debark, and Assosa stations, respectively, inflicting extreme damage to GPS navigation. This implice that Debark station had the most LOL events, while Assosa station had the least number of LOL events, and Bahir Dar station had intermediate number of LOL events. We also found that the majority of LOL events in all stations took place when the elevation angle was low (between 30° and 40°),but Debark also has some LOL cases at higher elevations(greater than 50°) than other stations and Assosa had no LOL occurrences for higher elevations angle. Aside from that, LOL events show special azimuth distribution characteristics, with the discovered LOL events at the three stations concentrated in the northern areas of the sky between North-West and North-East [330°-360°; 0°-30°]. Finally, it may also open up the opportunity of the usage of the quantity of LOL events as a proxy measure of ionospheric irregularity or ionospheric scintillation for low latitudes such as Ethiopia's Bahir Dar, Debark, and Assosa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Following a national policy reform of early childhood education in Ethiopia, the enrolment rate increased from 5 percent in 2010 to 46 percent in 2016. • Following this large-scale expansion of early childhood education, we find that inequalities in preschool access persisted with respect to a child's geographical location, gender, age. • Parental literacy plays a significant role in determining preschool participation in both 2010 and 2016. • After the expansion, preschool participation is significantly and positively associated with children's early reading skills in primary schools. In Ethiopia, major policy reforms to increase equitable access to pre-primary education were instigated in 2010, leading to a surge in pre-primary school enrolment. This paper investigates the effects of the expansion on who gets access to pre-primary education and on readiness for primary school. We find that inequalities in pre-primary access between advantaged and disadvantaged regions of the country persist following the reforms, with girls less likely to attend school, particularly in more disadvantaged regions. More than half of children enrolled in pre-primary classrooms are below the official age of 6 years. Children from more advantaged backgrounds (those whose parents are literate, have reading materials at home, and live in urban areas) are more likely to participate in pre-primary schools both before and after the reform. Yet pre-primary education could play a role in equalizing opportunities in primary school: we find pre-primary participation to be positively associated with children's reading skills in Grades 2 and 3 of primary school after the expansion. These findings highlight the need to focus policy attention on efforts to reduce barriers to pre-primary access for children in disadvantaged circumstances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, a great interest in the social dynamics of access to land and livelihoods across Africa, especially that of youth, has emerged in the context of increased competing demands for land and youth employment challenges. Research on land issues in Ethiopia tends to focus on documenting how small and fragmented landholdings have become or on how rural people adapt to these land constraints, often focusing on the application of other agricultural inputs. As a result, studies have rarely focused on the evolving dynamics of access to land. Based on fieldwork in Ethiopia, this paper explores whether and how land is accessed, especially by the rural youth, under the prevailing context of narrowing access to land and the implications of this for rural migration. The paper demonstrates that young people are less likely than their parents' generation to be able to access land independently, suggesting generational patterns of differentiation around land access and livelihood trajectory. It demonstrates that currently there are very limited opportunities for the rural youth to gain access to land except through land inheritance and gifts from their parents. But even these long-standing land distribution practices appear unsustainable. As the prospect of gaining access to land has become more challenging, young people are increasingly engaging in labour migration to find work elsewhere. Employment opportunities are, however, limited and unevenly distributed. In light of this, key issues that policymakers should be concerned with include improving rural youth's access to farmland and employment opportunities. This point is important vis à vis the government's recent drive to facilitate the acquisition of large expanses of farmland in various areas of the country by large investors and local elites in the form of long-term leases to establish plantations, thus reducing the amount of land which the rural youth can potentially access. • Access to land has become more challenging for young people; they are less likely than their parents' generation to be able to access land independently. • Land inheritance and gifts appear to be the key sources of land access for the youth. • Decreased land access is forcing rural young people away from agricultural livelihoods and to migrate in search of other sources of income. • Generational patterns of differentiation around land access and livelihood trajectory are important. • Understanding the evolving dynamics of access to land and livelihoods is crucial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Provide a mathematical model to describe finely the interactions between the three decision making levels of a supply chain. • Study the transport related decision in the operational, by including a detailed and generic Vehicle Routing Problem, due their great influence on the supply chain performance. • Propose a novel and generic iterative multiscale strategy that decomposes the problem in both time and level of decision. • Demonstrate the relevance of a fine modeling of the operational level on the beneficial consequences on the other decision levels and the quality of the solution. • Consider a real case study to provide decision support for policy makers, investors and stakeholders of bioethanol supply chain in Ethiopia. The optimization of supply chain, a subject of active research in process system engineering, frequently leads to large Mixed Integer Linear or Non-Linear Problems more particularly when applied to realistic industrial cases. In this domain, one main challenge concerns multi scale modeling to accurately integrate the different decision scales (from strategic to operational) and to study the impact of the decision across these scales, in order to effectively contributes to intelligent and coherent decision making. Unfortunately, very few papers cover the three decision levels - strategic (long-term decisions: supply network design), tactical (medium-term decisions: management of network design) and operational (short- term decisions: routing, inventory management...) to have a holistic perspective of the supply chain. Therefore, the first objective of this paper is to model as finely as possible the three decision levels by focusing more particularly on the transport related decision due to their importance on the supply chain performances. As a progress, the Vehicle Routing Problem, one of the most studied problem in logistic and one of the most complex, is integrated into a strategic and tactical model. But, the resulting large-scale MILP model must be solved in a reasonable computational time. To achieve this second objective, we developed a novel iterative multi scale strategy that optimizes the model at two spatial and two temporal scales. This strategy is based on a deep knowledge of the mathematical models and especially of the variables that strongly influence the resolution. The real biofuel supply chain in the Ethiopian country is used to demonstrate the capabilities of the approach, and the improvement in computing time and solution strategy. In addition to the change in the design of the supply chain network, the use of an operational model that finely describes the transport activities shows that the costs related to these activities are often underestimated by a factor between 2 and 3 in the classical models of the literature. The main perspectives of this work are to address the two main shortcomings of the proposal: writing and solving in a reasonable computational time a single model rather than using a decomposition (especially useful for multi-objective optimization) and integrating other decisions at the operational level to not be limited to those related to transportation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pastoral and agro-pastoral (PAP) systems in East Africa face a range of challenges including increased climate variability. Various measures have been proposed to improve the resilience of pastoral/agro-pastoral (PAP) systems to drought. However, identifying the most effective measure for a given system and location is complicated, and tools are required to appraise measures on a consistent basis. This paper develops a model of a PAP system and uses it to assess the effects of four measures (Index-based livestock insurance, IBLI; Commercial destocking with an early warning system, EWS; Rangeland restoration, RR; Fodder planting, FP) on the resilience of the PAP system. It also quantifies the greenhouse gas (GHG) effects of the measures, thereby identifying potential trade-offs and synergies between the policy objectives of resilience and climate smart agriculture (CSA). A dynamic model of the Borena pastoral cattle system was developed to undertake the analysis. At its core is a herd model that calculates the changes in cattle population over time. Feed availability and drought occurrence affect fertility and mortality rates, which in turn determine the population and (meat and milk) production. A suite of indicators covering the three dimensions of CSA (increasing productivity, enhancing resilience and reducing GHG emissions) were developed, and used to compare the situation with and without measures. Destocking with an early warning system provides the biggest increases (relative to the no measure situation) in production and profit, due to the way it changes the herd size and structure. It maintains a larger herd than any of the other measures, and a greater proportion of the herd are adult females. Fodder planting and rangeland restoration provide moderate increases in production and profit. Index-based livestock insurance provides a moderate increase in protein production, but has no effect on profit, as it is designed to reduce risk rather than increase productivity or profit, at least in the short term. All of the measures increase the total emissions relative to the no measure scenario. In terms of the three dimensions of climate-smart agriculture, IBLI leads to some improvements in productivity and resilience but leads to large increases in total emissions, and modest increases in emissions intensity (EI). EWS leads to large increases in productivity and resilience. However, it also leads to large increases in total emissions and a mixed effect on EI. FP and RR improve productivity and increase total emissions, while having little effect on EI or resilience. This paper illustrates the way in which systems dynamic model can be used to appraise measures designed to improve resilience. The result identify potential synergies and tensions between the goals of resilience and climate smart agriculture, and raises the question of whether fully climate-smart goals are viable in these systems. [Display omitted] • A model of a pastoral cattle system in Ethiopia was developed and used to investigate resilience. • Four measures were analysed: livestock insurance; managed destocking; rangeland restoration; fodder planting. • Destocking provides the biggest increase in production and profit, due to the way it changes the herd size and structure. • Fodder planting and rangeland restoration increase production and profit. Insurance increases production but not profit. • All of the measures increase the total GHG emissions but lead to little change in emissions intensity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Market orientation have increasingly been adopted to tackle food insecurity. • Social exchange theory – a theory for understanding social behaviours. • Market orientation strengthens market-based exchange relationships. • Market orientation disrupts traditional exchange relationships. • Alternative policy that enhance market and non-market based relationship is needed. In recent decades, small-scale farmers' market orientation approaches have increasingly been adopted to tackle the problem of food insecurity. However, little is known about how this affects other non-market exchange relationships. The present paper addresses this knowledge gap using qualitative data gathered from small-scale farmers at three selected sites in northern Ethiopia. We took a social exchange theory perspective to examine how resource exchanges have altered after-market orientations in rural communities. The results indicate that, in addition to the benefits for better-off households, integration into the market economy improves the bargaining power and autonomy of middle-income groups as well as the physically fit younger generations. The results also suggest that market orientation generates new livelihood opportunities and market-based relationships, which in turn facilitate the formalisation and transformation of local institutions. On the other hand, market orientation has adverse impacts on traditional practices of resource exchange – such as labour for labour, oxen for labour, labour for harvest/yield, or labour for food – or the exchange of other services. Our results indicate that because these in-kind resource exchange relationships have been replaced by monetary transactions, the poor have become even more vulnerable. The policy implication is that while promoting market-driven approaches to food security, complementary mechanisms must be put in place to empower those living in the most vulnerable conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The widespread introduction of ICTs and digitised data management systems is one of the most important developments amongst African tax administrations in recent years. However, very little evidence is available on their effectiveness to increase compliance and on how taxpayers respond to these changes. This paper starts filling this gap by reporting three sets of results from Ethiopia. First, we evaluate the impact of a technological innovation, the adoption of electronic sales registration machines, on taxpayers' self reports. We find a positive impact on tax revenue, which increases by at least 12% for income taxes and 48% for VAT. However, taxpayers respond by simultaneously adjusting both reported sales and costs, thus yielding net revenue gains that are proportionally lower than the increase in sales. Second, we use a letter experiment to show that the main mechanism through which the machines increase tax revenue is compliance, rather than any change in real business activity. Third, we document how the revenue administration does not make use of available data to its full potential, as many discrepancies remain undetected. However, machine adoption improves the accuracy of those taxpayer records, reducing dicrepancies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary It is well-documented that early-life outcomes can have lasting impacts during adulthood. This paper investigates two of the main potential channels—childhood health and schooling outcomes—through which the Eritrean–Ethiopian war may have long-term economic impacts. Using unique child-level panel data from Ethiopia, identification is based on a difference-in-difference approach, using two points in time at which older and younger children have the same average age and controlling for observable household and child-level time-variant characteristics. The paper contributes to an empirical literature that relies predominantly on cross-sectional comparisons of child cohorts born before and after the war in war-affected and unaffected regions. The results show that war-exposed children have a one-third of a standard deviation lower height-for-age z-score and a 12-percentage point higher incidence of childhood stunting. In addition, exposed children are less likely to be enrolled in school, complete fewer grades (given enrollment), and are more likely to exhibit reading problems (given enrollment). While analyzing the exact mechanisms is challenging, suggestive evidence indicates that child health reduces child education, in particular the probability of child enrollment at school. These are disconcerting findings, as early-life outcomes can have lasting impacts during adulthood. Future research that focuses on mechanisms through which war affects children may improve the design of appropriate policies that aim to target and support children confronted with war. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Food insecurity, the state of being without reliable access to a sufficient quantity of safe, nutritious food, is a persistent problem in rural Ethiopia. However, little qualitative research has explored how food insecurity affects children over time, from their point of view. What are the effects of economic ‘shocks’ such as illness, death, loss of livestock, drought and inflation on availability of food, and children's well-being? To what extent do social protection schemes (in this case, the Productive Safety Net Programme) mitigate the long-term effects of food insecurity for children? The paper uses a life-course approach, drawing on analysis of four rounds of qualitative longitudinal research conducted in 2007, 2008, 2011 and 2014, with eight case study children, as part of Young Lives, an ongoing cohort study. Children's descriptions of the importance of food and a varied diet (dietary diversity) in everyday life were expressed in a range of qualitative methods, including interviews, group discussions and creative methods. The paper suggests that while the overall picture of food security in Ethiopia has improved in the past decade, for the poorest rural families, food insecurity remains a major factor influencing decisions about a range of matters – children's time allocation, whether to continue in school, whether to migrate for work, and whether they marry. The paper argues that experiences of food insecurity need to be understood holistically, in relation to other aspects of children's lives, at differing stages of the life-course during childhood. The paper concludes that nutritional support beyond early childhood needs to be a focus of policy and programming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Foot and mouth disease (FMD), world’s most important highly infectious and contagious trans-boundary animal diseases, is responsible for huge global losses of livestock production as well as severe impacts on international trade. This vesicular disease is caused by foot and mouth disease virus of the genus Aphthovirus, family Picornaviridae. Currently FMD is major global animal health problem and endemic in Africa including Ethiopia. This paper systematically reviewed the sero-prevalence reports, associated risk factors and distribution of FMD in Ethiopia with the main aim of making compressive document on prevalence, risk factor and distribution of the disease thus helping as a basis for designing effective control strategies. FMD is widely distributed in Ethiopia and its prevalence varies from place to place with seropositivity that ranges from 5.6% to 42.7% in cattle and from 4% to 11% in small ruminant and in 30% in ungulate wildlife. In Ethiopia endemic distributions of five of seven serotypes, namely serotypes O, A, C, SAT1 and SAT2 have been documented. The dominant serotype being reported recently is serotype O and serotype C has not been reported in the country since 1983. However, serotype C specific antibody was detected in cattle indicating that circulation of serotype C viruses in the country may have gone unnoticed. The most common risk factor associated with FMD infection in Ethiopia includes production system, geographic location, species, age of animals, contact with wildlife and season of the year, mixed animal species and Breed. Conclusively, this paper revealed as FMD is posing a major threat in different area of the country thereby causing substantial economic losses through morbidity, mortality and restriction of international trade. Thus, demanding for great attention as its occurrence is may affect the export earnings of the country thereby threaten the livelihood of farmers and economy of the country at large. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Mobile phone based applications are considered by many as potentially useful for addressing challenges and improving the quality of data collection in developing countries. Yet very little evidence is available supporting or refuting the potential and widely perceived benefits on the use of electronic forms on smartphones for routine patient data collection by health workers at primary health care facilities.Methods: A facility based cross sectional study using a structured paper checklist was prepared to assess the completeness and accuracy of 408 electronic records completed and submitted to a central database server using electronic forms on smartphones by 25 health workers. The 408 electronic records were selected randomly out of a total of 1772 maternal health records submitted by the health workers to the central database over a period of six months. Descriptive frequencies and percentages of data completeness and error rates were calculated.Results: When compared to paper records, the use of electronic forms significantly improved data completeness by 209 (8%) entries. Of a total 2622 entries checked for completeness, 2602 (99.2%) electronic record entries were complete, while 2393 (91.3%) paper record entries were complete. A very small percentage of error rates, which was easily identifiable, occurred in both electronic and paper forms although the error rate in the electronic records was more than double that of paper records (2.8% vs. 1.1%). More than half of entry errors in the electronic records related to entering a text value.Conclusions: With minimal training, supervision, and no incentives, health care workers were able to use electronic forms for patient assessment and routine data collection appropriately and accurately with a very small error rate. Minimising the number of questions requiring text responses in electronic forms would be helpful in minimizing data errors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is generally believed that tenure security has improved due to the programme of land certification. In this paper I argue the opposite. Tenure security concerns three different rights: possession, renting and latent rights. Rights of possession are believed to have improved, but the evidence is weak and conflicting. Land rentals are expanding and farmers face high tenure insecurity. The main problem, though, is latent rights, with great insecurity and increased conflict levels. Despite rapid economic development there is considerable social malaise, an unfortunate agricultural structure, and considerable pressure for land redistribution due to unresolved land tenure issues. The paper is based on the certification literature and primary material from North Shäwa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores Ethiopian physicians’ responses to tensions produced by gaps between ideals of biomedicine and realities of clinical practice in two rural Ethiopian hospitals. Physicians engage in creativity and improvisation, including relying on informal networks and practices and tinkering within diagnoses and procedures, to overcome constraints of lack of resources and limited opportunities to engage in “good medicine.” These courageous, but often unsuccessful attempts to mitigate professional and personal conflicts within their medical practices represent improvisation in impossible circumstances. This paper results from ethnographic research conducted in 2013–2014 and includes participant observations and qualitative interviews in two hospitals within the same community. The inherent conflicts among globalized standards, unpredictable transnational medical networks, and innovative practices produce tenuous clinical spaces and practices that rely on a mosaic of techniques and ad hoc connections. Tinkering and improvisation often fail to mediate these conflicts, contributing to physician disenchantment and departure from the community. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ethiopian farmers have been using an ox-drawn breaking plough, known as ard plough – maresha, for thousands of years. Maresha is a pointed, steel-tipped tine attached to a draught pole at an adjustable shallow angle. It has narrow side-wings, attached to the left and right side of it, to push soil to either side without inverting. The aim of this paper is to explore the effect of side-wings on draught using a field soil bin test facility. To this end, a mobile and an in-situ soil bin test system, for online measurements of draught, was designed and developed. This research considered tool geometry ( maresha plough with and without side-wings) and rake angle (shallow – 8°, medium deep – 15°, and deep – 24°, representing primary, secondary and tertiary tillage processes in Ethiopia, respectively). Maresha plough with side-wings has greater contact area, between the moving soil and tool, than its wingless counterpart. When the ploughshare surface and soil slide relative to one another, the draught expected to increase with contact area, as adhesion and friction resistance increases with area. However, experimental analysis indicated that the maresha with side-wings required less draught compared to maresha without side-wings ( ρ < 0.001) . This might be attributed to the effect of side-wings on crack propagation by a wedging effect to enhance and facilitate subsequent ploughing. This paper also dealt with the effect of rake angle on draught. Though the depth setup was getting smaller d 1 < d 2 < d 3 for the successive tillage runs, analysis showed increment in draught force ( ρ < 0.001) with rake angle. This might be attributed to higher soil compaction that comes with depth and downward force resulting from repeated use of maresha every season to the same depth for thousand years. Although more and rigorous studies should be undertaken considering soil, tool, and operational parameters to arrive at conclusive results, this paper gave some insights regarding effect of side-wings on maresha plough and rake angle on draught. This shows that there is still room for improvement of maresha plough geometry for minimum draught requirement and optimum soil manipulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Until recently, the price of electricity in Ethiopia was among the lowest in the world. Such low prices have contributed to a substantial financial deficit for the government-owned electric utility and led to a degradation in the quality of electricity services delivered to customers. In December 2018, the utility increased the electricity tariff to help to finance improvements in the quality of electricity services. This paper studies the effect of the revised tariff on urban household electricity consumption and alternative fuel expenditure. The study relied on two rounds of household survey data and six years of electricity consumption data from the utility company. The study finds that prepaid customers reduced their electricity consumption by about 22 kWh per month in the post-tariff-adjustment periods, equivalent to about 10% of electricity expenditure and 14% of daily consumption. In the overall sample, however, consumption slightly increased over time. These results imply that the price elasticity of demand for electricity in urban Ethiopia is highly inelastic. Moreover, households did not shift substantially toward the use of alternative fuels. The findings indicate that governments and utilities in settings where electricity is priced well below cost-covering levels may be able to increase revenues and improve their balance sheets with relatively modest effects on households' electricity consumption, though effects from more substantial tariff hikes should be examined. • The price of electricity in Ethiopia was until recently among the lowest in the world. • The utility company increased the electricity tariff with the aim of improving the quality of electricity services. • This paper studies the effect of the revised tariff on urban households' electricity consumption. • The study result shows a highly inelastic demand. • The study has policy implications in settings where electricity price is well below cost-covering level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Mental models shape our system understanding and preferences for decision making. • Economic variables were identified as key drivers as well as key sensitivities. • Women's models diverged most frequently from other group models. • Stakeholder groups experienced different degrees and types of social learning. • Individual and group-level mental modeling are complementary approaches. Managing social-ecological systems increasingly requires collaboration among diverse teams with a wide range of worldviews and perspectives. Increased attention to the social and cultural factors that shape environmental outcomes is needed for these collaborative teams to function effectively. Mental models are cognitive representations of the external world which guide an individual's thinking, decision-making, and behavior. They are critical elements of collaborative environmental management because they shape our understanding of social-ecological systems, our perceptions of environmental problems, and our preferences for certain management actions. In this paper, we describe an iterative process of constructing and revising mental models at both individual and small group levels over the course of a year in a community-based conservation area in the Ethiopian highlands. We compared mental models of the conservation area from four groups involved in management to identify commonalities and differences in the way people conceptualize the area. While we found high variability in mental models both within and across groups, most participants perceived social, economic, and political variables to be the key drivers of change in this system. Economic variables were also identified as key sensitivities, along with biotic and livelihood variables. However, groups differed considerably in how they thought about relationships between these variables, particularly political and economic variables. We used interviews with participants to assess how they learned throughout the mental modeling process, finding evidence of changes to stakeholder relationships, system understanding, and the time horizons used in planning. Women farmers differed from other groups at multiple stages in our process, both in the structure of the models they produced and in the social learning they experienced. Our study was strengthened by the iterative process that allowed individuals and small groups to reflect on their own understanding and share it with others, resulting in increased communication, mutual respect, and understanding among members of the management team. These findings point to the complementarity of both individual and group-level mental modeling for nuanced system understanding, and emphasize the need for diverse perspectives in collaborative environmental management in order for holistic understanding of both problems and solutions to emerge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The scale and pace of land tenure change for agricultural development, often known as 'land grabbing' or 'global land rush,' are historically unprecedented. Control over millions of hectares of land has shifted over the past decade for the production of food, fiber, and biofuel. However, the rapidly growing body of research on land tenure change provides few rigorous assessments of deforestation across multiple countries with distinct biophyisical and socioeconomic characteristics. In this paper, based on spatial boundaries of land transactions (LTs) in Cambodia, Ethiopia, Liberia, and Peru, we investigate their association with deforestation using a pixel-based matching approach. Our findings suggest that the context, size, and distribution of LTs and the associated deforestation patterns vary substantially across the four countries. Land tenure change significantly accelerates deforestation in Cambodia and Liberia, but such acceleration is insignificant in Ethiopia. In Peru, we observe the opposite trend, where areas adjacent to LTs experience higher deforestation than areas within. Our analysis reveals how patterns and outcomes of LTs are linked to country characteristics and contexts, and suggests that sweeping generalizations about positive or negative consequences of LTs on deforestation and possibly other socioenvironmental outcomes need to attend more closely to specific patterns and drivers of LTs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on the investigation of the long-term behavior of the equatorial ionosphere in Ethiopia. To explore the extended ionospheric variations, we analyze Total Electron Content (TEC) fluctuations in conjunction with solar activity indices, including F10.7 radio flux, EUV radiation, and Sunspot Number (SSN). The dataset used encompasses GPS-derived TEC records spanning 11 consecutive years from 2007 to 2017, corresponding to the period of solar cycle 24. Our analysis shows that the highest TEC levels generally occur during the post-noon hours, while the lowest values are observed around post-midnight or early morning. Notably, exceptions to this pattern are found in 2011 and 2013 when the highest TEC levels are observed during the December solstice. Otherwise, the seasonal TEC variation exhibits a semi-annual pattern, with peak TEC values occurring during the equinoxes and the lowest values during the solstices. Further examination demonstrates that in both solar activity phases, TEC magnitude is higher during the March Equinox compared to the September Equinox, and slightly higher during the December Solstice compared to the June Solstice. This reveals an asymmetry in the seasonal variations, encompassing the equinoxes, solstices, and the ascending and descending phases of the solar cycle. Our study confirms that long-term fluctuations in ionospheric TEC closely correspond to variations in solar activity indices. Correlation analysis indicates a strong link between all solar activity indices and TEC. Notably, while a negative correlation is observed in 2007, the correlation in 2011 is remarkably stronger. Additionally, we find that the long-term TEC variation exhibits stronger correlations with EUV and F10.7 radio flux than with SSN, with correlation coefficients of 0.86, 0.85, and 0.78, respectively. Lastly, our study extends previous research by identifying the long-term trends of vertical TEC (vTEC) in relation to various driving factors such as F10.7, SSN, and EUV. • Seasonal total electron content (TEC) fluctuation shows a semi-annual distribution. • Solar activity indices and the ionospheric TEC are correlated. • Low correlation between TEC and solar indices at the minimum of the solar cycle 24. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]