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• Energy upgrade is promoted by interprovincial coordinating of economy and resource. • Energy upgrade is determined by change of farmers' preference for low-quality energy. • Energy upgrade can be promoted together in agriculture and rural life. Rural energy upgrade in developing countries is an essential part of the world climate mitigation work. To systematically promote rural energy upgrade, we took the case of China and used a spatiotemporal model to investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics of energy ladders in agriculture and rural life of developing countries. The proportion of clean energy consumption in agriculture showed an interprovincial competition effect, whereas the proportion of oil consumption in rural life showed a demonstration effect. Severe reliance on coal hinders energy upgrade. Urbanisation has improved the clean level of energy use in agriculture but does not significantly affect the in rural life. Technological progress has increased the proportion of clean energy consumption but has little impact on the proportion of oil and gas consumption. The abundance of coal resources has prompted the massive use of coal and coal-fired power. Energy-use habit promotes the use of all types of energy. Except for that of gas, the consumption of different types of energy in agriculture and rural life mutually promotes. In summary, the development of energy technologies should be established based on the regional resource endowment and economic development level. Also, subsidy principles for clean energy projects should be established based on the development level of the agriculture and residents' income. Rural energy upgrade is coordinated with urbanisation and the modernisation of the agriculture and rural life styles while paying attention to the mutual promotion between the agriculture and rural life. During the change of the energy-use habit under policy guidance, attention must be paid to interprovincial cooperation. Finally, a reasonable market mechanism should be established to promote energy upgrade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most contemporary urban cellular automata (CA) models primarily focus on the simulation of urban land expansion, and cannot effectively simulate vertical urban growth. This study addresses this drawback by extending a patch-based urban CA model with a component that can predict the building volumes of an urban land expansion scenario. The proposed model is evaluated through a case study in the Guangzhou-Foshan metropolitan area, China. The horizontal urban growth simulations achieve a mean 'Figure-of-merit' value of 0.1406 at the cell level and an agreement of 97% at the pattern level. The building volume prediction made by the methods of random forest and k -nearest-neighbor has a testing R 2 of 0.90 and a mean percentage absolute error of 22%. The proposed model is applied to the urban growth projections under the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The results successfully reflect the influences that different SSPs have on vertical urban developments. These results also complement related research of urbanization projections under the SSPs, because most existing studies consider the impacts of horizontal urban growth only. As building volumes and heights are fundamental parameters to urban climate modeling, the ability of the proposed model to project future change in vertical urban developments can support the mitigation of climate change effects on human settlements. • Horizontal and vertical urban growth is simulated by using a patch-based CA model. • RF and k -nn are combined to predict building volumes and yield a high R 2 of 0.90. • The proposed model predicts building volumes and heights for the SSPs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Mixed-tree plantations can be a good silvicultural alternative to large-scale monoculture coniferous plantations for climate change mitigation, which is facilitated by the sequestration of atmospheric carbon dioxide. To evaluate the impacts of tree species compositions on the carbon storage capacity of plantation ecosystems, we measured the above and belowground biomass, as well as the carbon content, in three 27-year old forest plantations of monoculture Castanopsis hystrix (CH stand), monoculture Pinus massoniana (PM stand), and mixed C. hystrix and P. massoniana (mixed CH/PM stand) stands. We developed an allometric equation to estimate tree carbon storage. The carbon storage levels of understory, litter, and soil components were also estimated. Results show that biomass is positively correlated with carbon storage. The ecosystem carbon storage of the mixed CH/PM stand (327.03Mgha−1) was higher than those of the CH (314.59Mgha−1) and PM (293.60Mgha−1) stands. The majority of carbon storage was found in the soil pool (84.73%, 63.54%, and 75.80% in the CH, PM and mixed CH/PM stands, respectively). Almost 40% of soil carbon at a depth of 0–60cm was stored in the upper 20cm of the soil pool. Except for the vegetation layer, each layer of the CH and mixed CH/PM stands consisted of a higher amount of carbon than did the layers of the PM stand. These findings suggest that mixed CH/PM plantation stands or valuable indigenous CH plantation stands more substantially improve carbon storage in litter, soil, and ecosystems than do monoculture PM plantation stands. The results also imply that developing valuable indigenous tree species is a good silvicultural option for enhancing carbon sequestration and valuable timber cultivation in subtropical China. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Climate change was not on the policy agenda in Hong Kong before 2007. In 2010, a consultation document, Hong Kong’s Climate Change Strategy and Action Agenda, was published proposing a voluntary carbon intensity reduction target of 50–60% by 2020 (from the 2005 level). This review attempts to understand why there was a sudden shift to climate issues and whether the proposed strategy, actions and targets are appropriate to the climate change challenges faced by the city. Through synthesizing existing literature on climate change at the city level, a framework outlining possible actions at the strategic, knowledge accumulation and implementation phases is developed to position Hong Kong’s experience. It is found that Hong Kong’s move towards climate change is strongly affected by China’s efforts. The city is facing some real climate change threats. However, while the carbon intensity reduction target looks impressive, it is actually too modest for the city’s developed economy. The city needs to reflect critically on its economics-first strategy and undertake more refined vulnerability studies and risk assessments to identify spatially and sectorally-specific adaptation measures. To be a responsible global citizen and to pursue sustainable development, Hong Kong needs more concerted and comprehensive efforts to combat climate change. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The National 12th Five-Year-Plan for Social and Economic Development (2011–2015) (national development policy) in China requires knowledge of ecological complexity to better guide policy development for adaptation strategies and mitigation to complex climate change. The thinking of human–environment interactions supplements climate change related policies in supporting sustainability through adaptation and mitigation. Based on a review of the climate change contents of the National 10th and 11th Five-Year-Plan in China, the paper illustrates the complexity of climate changes that have affected China''s environmental sustainability now and offers policy viewpoints for the in-preparing 12th Five-Year Plan, with five core areas for the implementation of climate change policy: (A) development of the transition to a low carbon economy, (B) prevention and treatment of urban environmental negative effects caused by climate change, (C) adaptation to sea level rises in coastal zones, (D) maintaining the resilience of natural ecosystems affected by climate change, and (E) prevention and control of climate disaster and environmental risk. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Characterizing the carbon footprint (CF) of agricultural production offers key information for pursuing low carbon agriculture and food consumption. While China has long strived for increasing food production capacity for its large and still growing population, the high emissions cost, especially from the over use of agro-chemicals, has been widely debated for the last decade. However, the CF of China''s crop production has not yet been assessed. This paper reports a basic estimate of CF of crop production using national statistical data available for the period of 1993–2007. The dataset includes the amount of individual agricultural inputs (fertilizer, pesticide, diesel, plastic film, etc.), cultivation area and total of production whole crops. Using the emission factors estimated for China''s agricultural features and available abroad, the mean overall CF of China''s crop production was estimated to be 0.78±0.08tCEha−1 yr−1 and 0.11±0.01tCEt−1 yr−1, for land use and bulk production respectively. For the duration the data covered, the carbon intensity under cultivation land use was seen to increase since 1993. Among the total, fertilizer induced emissions exerted the largest contribution of ∼60%, being 0.45±0.04tCE per ha and 0.07±0.01tCE per ton of production, on average. Compared to the UK, the estimated overall CF of China''s crop production was higher in terms of cultivation land use. While there was a significant positive correlation of carbon intensity with total production, carbon efficiency was shown in a decreasing trend during 2003-2007. Therefore, low carbon agriculture should be pursued, and the priority should be given to reducing fertilizer application in agriculture of China. However, for developing best management practices for climate change mitigation in crop production of China, further studies of crop and regional specific CFs and the variation with climate conditions and agricultural managements are needed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Currently, China faces both the challenge of mitigating the CO2 emissions in coping with global climate change and abating air pollutants emissions in dealing with domestic environmental stresses. Although there being on-going discussions, it is still not clear for China that how to integrate greenhouse gas abatement into air pollution control policy framework now. In this study, we try to estimate CO2 reduction by major greening Olympic measures for 2008 Beijing Olympic Games, aiming to provide evidence on curbing CO2 emissions as a co-benefit for improving local air quality by mega-events. CO2 emission reduction by three types of measures has been estimated including: energy related measures, transport management, and temporary air pollution control measures. As estimated, from the perspective of long-term effect, the measure of clean energy substitution and improving energy efficiency and application of advance energy saving technologies would be cost -effectiveness measures for China addressing both air pollution control and green-house gases abatement. We suggest China government integrate CO2 reduction to local air quality improvement policy framework, and take mega-events as triggers for more sustainable urbandevelopment. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Unilateral Clean Development Mechanism (uCDM) projects are planned, implemented and financed by a Non-Annex I entity yet without the direct involvement of an Annex I entity. Currently in the CDM project pipeline, unilateral projects grow continuously. On the basis of a questionnaire survey and formal and informal discussions with key CDM stakeholders in China, which dominate the world CDM market, this study tested seven propositions: (1) uCDM provision provides lower risk to the host country investor; (2) uCDM provision lowers transaction costs; (3) uCDM provision helps to keep rent in the host country; (4) uCDM provision offers less technology transfer than normal CDM projects; (5) delayed financial flow in uCDM projects will be a major problem for developing uCDM projects; (6) the Chinese Government will promote uCDM policy in the future; and (7) there will be more uCDM projects in China in the future. The first six hypotheses were accepted while the final one was rejected. Outcomes of this study may help refine future uCDM policy. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Likely increase in energy use in air-conditioned office buildings due to climate change in subtropical Hong Kong was estimated for two emissions scenarios. Towards the end of the 21st century (i.e. 2091–2100), the average annual building energy use would be 6.6% and 8.1% more than that in 1979–2008 for low and medium forcing, respectively. Potential mitigation measures concerning the building envelope, internal condition, lighting load density (LLD) and chiller plant were considered. Thermal insulation to the external wall would not be effective to mitigate the expected increase in building energy use due to climate change. Controlling the amount of solar heat gain through the window would be a better option. Lowering the current LLD of 15W/m2 to about 13W/m2 would result in substantial energy savings because of the reduction in electricity consumption for both electric lighting and air-conditioning. As for the chiller plant, the coefficient of performance (COP) should be improved from the current minimum requirement of 4.7 to at least 5.5 to alleviate the impact of climate change. Raising the summer set point temperature (SST) to 25.5°C or higher would have high energy saving and hence mitigation potential, which could be readily applied to both new and existing buildings. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Future trends of cooling load due to heat gain through the building envelopes in the residential sector in subtropical Hong Kong under different emissions scenarios in the 21st century were investigated. Predicted monthly weather data from five general circulation models were gathered and analysed. An increasing trend of building envelope cooling load was observed. The average annual cooling load during the 2009–2100 period would be 6.1% and 9.8% more than that during 1979–2008 for low and medium forcing, respectively. If only the last 30 years (2071–2100) were considered, the percentage increase would be much larger at 12.3% and 21.6%. Four mitigation or energy conservation measures – raising the indoor temperature, thermal insulation, double glazing and tinted glass – were considered. Among them, raising the indoor temperature has the best mitigation potential because there is a growing awareness and recognition of adaptive thermal comfort and it can be readily applied to both existing and new buildings at no extra cost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) forest projects are perceived as an attractive way to both help mitigate climate change and transfer income to rural poor. However, to engender participation of small-scale producers, a CDM forest project must offer sufficient incentives, while minimizing their costs of participation, all the while respecting the need for additionality. Property rights, social capital and contractual rules are critical in the success of CDM forest projects. In this paper, we ask what factors affect participation in the world's first CDM project, established in Guangxi Province, China. Using village-level surveys, we find that although the project facilitates participation through carbon pooling and a share-holding system, much of the project land remains unforested. We find that the primary reasons for the unforested regions are constrained contractual rules, property rights allocation disputes and low levels of social capital in some villages. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Soil C sequestration in cropland could play an important role in mitigating the rapidly increasing CO2 emissions in China. Many efforts had been dedicated to estimating the potential for C sequestration in croplands. Potential increases in SOC in China''s croplands had been recently evaluated using inventory-up-scaling simulation and crop-soil C process-based modeling. In this study, data of SOC change at monitoring sites from croplands across mainland China were collected from publications available from 1985 to 2006 to perform a statistical analysis. The data set comprises 1081 observations (404 from rice paddies, RPs and 677 from dry croplands, DCs). Frequency analysis indicates that over 70% of observations show an increase in SOC, which is higher among RPs than DCs. To quantify SOC dynamics, a Relative Annual Change Index in gkg−1 year−1 (RAC, gkg−1 year−1) is defined and calculated using the initial and final SOC values for the duration of monitored observations. RAC values ranged from −0.806 to 0.963gkg−1 year−1 for DCs and from −0.597 to 0.959gkg−1 year−1 for RPs, respectively. From this data, the average is estimated to be 0.056±0.200gkg−1 year−1 for DCs, and 0.110±0.244gkg−1 year−1 for RPs, with an overall estimate for China''s croplands, with RPs and DCs combined, of 0.076±0.219gkg−1 year−1. A mean increase in topsoil C (0–20cm) stock of China''s croplands was estimated to be 25.5TgCyear−1 (8TgCyear−1 in RPs and 17.5TgCyear−1 in DCs) between 1985 and 2006, with a total topsoil C stock increase of 0.64 Pg C over the whole period. The annual stock increase may offset ∼20%, on average, of the total CO2 emissions of China for 1994. This study suggests an important role of China''s croplands, especially rice paddies, for C sequestration to mitigate climate change. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• Promote the construction of China's city-level CH 4 emission basic database • Calculate the anthropogenic CH 4 emissions for 340 Chinese cities in 2015 • Analyze the characteristics of anthropogenic CH 4 emissions in Chinese cities • Provide recommendations for China to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 China attaches great importance to methane (CH 4) emissions, and the "14th Five-Year Plan" will formulate actions related to CH 4 emission reduction. Accounting for and understanding CH 4 emissions at the city level are of great importance because cities are the focus of future mitigation and adaptation activities to address climate change, especially in developing nations. However, existing studies have not yet provided a complete and updated emissions database of city-level CH 4 emissions for China. To promote research on CH 4 emissions accounting, this paper applies a production-based method to calculate anthropogenic CH 4 emissions for 340 Chinese prefecture-level administrative units in 2015 based on multisource statistical information. The CH 4 emission sources considered in this paper are mainly divided into five categories: underground coal mining, rice cultivation, livestock management, straw burning, and waste treatment. The results show that the characteristics of CH 4 emissions in Chinese cities vary significantly and different emission sources present different spatial distribution characteristics. Moreover, there is an obvious single-source dominant pattern in the CH 4 emission structure of Chinese cities. More than 50% of the total CH 4 emissions in more than two-thirds of Chinese cities are from a single source. The accounting results are basically consistent with the official results, and the error range is within 20%, which is within the emission uncertainty range. The main contribution of this paper is the construction of a basic database to support China's efforts to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The reduction of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions relies on farmers' active involvement in mitigation actions. However, little is known about farmers' capability of engaging with climate change mitigation. This study addresses the gap by delineating an actor-centered, capability-based, and multi-dimensional framework of farmers' carbon capability to elucidate how and to what extent farmers are equipped to engage in climate change mitigation. A structural equation model and farm-level data collected from China are used to explore the structural relationships between the carbon capability constructs. The results show that farmers' intrapsychic constructs are pro-environmental, and their cognitive knowledge about pro-climate farming practices is moderate. However, the performance of pro-climate farming is largely not under farmers' behavioral control. Farmers generally have a weak tendency to perform stable pro-climate farming behaviors, while they are slightly more inclined to behave pro-environmentally in social interactions. In addition, farmers' behavioral control capability emerges as the strongest predictor of the behavioral capability of farming, which, in turn, is an essential prerequisite for both the behavioral capability of socializing and influence capability. The findings of this study have important strategic implications for policymakers seeking to reduce agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. • A conceptual framework of farmers' carbon capability is proposed and tested. • Analyses elucidate the aspects in and extent to which farmers are equipped to engage in climate change mitigation. • Pro-climate farming is largely not under farmers' behavioral control. • Farmers' control over pro-climate farming matters to their own behaviors but also to peers' responses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Promoting technology development co-operation is particularly relevant while addressing global climate change or regional pollution. Investors may contribute to increasing environmental-related patents, which may help to improve the quality of the environment as long as supported by proper regulations and policies. In the quest towards a cleaner environment via the mitigation of climate change, this study investigates the relationship between technological innovation, income level, renewable energy and carbon emissions in both the United States and China. Applying the dynamic auto-regressive distributive lag (DARDL) simulation method revealed varying impacts of regressors on CO 2 emissions in the short-run and long-run. Accordingly, this study empirically confirms that (i) technological innovation reduces carbon emissions in the United States but it is not statistically significant in China. (ii) Renewable energy reduces carbon emissions in both countries. (iii) The impact of income level on emissions decreases from short-run to long-run in both countries. Decision-makers in China should stimulate more effective environmental-related innovations to decrease CO 2 emissions and should permit easy access to environmental-related patents together with reducing its cost of registration. • Investigates the role of green technological innovation in decreasing CO 2 emissions. • Applies the novel Dynamic ARDL simulation. • Green technological innovation reduces CO 2 emissions in the U.S. Only. • Confirms that renewable energy mitigates CO 2 emissions both in the U.S. and China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, ozone pollution has attracted wide attention from the scientific community, policymakers and the public. Previous studies have already confirmed the effects of meteorological conditions on regional ozone pollution events in the last two decades. However, due to the lack of historical ozone observations, the relationship of climate variability and ozone pollution has been less discussed. In our study, we use the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data and modeled historical surface ozone from CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) to explore the impact of climate variability related to Tibetan Plateau on summertime (June, July and August) ozone in Central China during 1950–2019. The results show that in interdecadal timescale, the annual summertime ozone over Central China is significantly correlated (R = −0.52; P -value <0.05) with the springtime (March, April and May) thermal forcing, indicated by total atmospheric energy (TPE), over Tibetan Plateau. In high TPE years, the East Asian monsoon (southerly wind flow) and vertical ascending motion have been enhanced in summer. It is conducive to both the diffusion of ozone and its precursors and occurrence of cloudy and high humidity weather. These processes lead to lower ozone concentrations up to 6.97 ppb (compared with values averaged during 1950–2019) over Central China. On the contrary, in low TPE years, summertime surface ozone concentrations have been increased by 2.96 ppb (the mean value is 49.00 ppb and the standard deviation is 11.75 ppb for 1950–2019) on average of Central China, due to the weakened East Asian monsoon and weakened vertical ascent, thus the stable weather with low humidity and small near surface wind. After the year 2000, the TPE has increased with a rapid growth rate of 3 × 104 hPa J kg−1 yr−1. However, similar to the reported surface ozone increments based on the modeling results and observations, the CMIP6 summertime surface ozone has shown an increasing trend in the last two decades (0.45 ppb yr−1 and 0.25 ppb yr−1 over Central China and entire China during 1950–2019, respectively). While a decline trend (0.18 ppb yr−1) of ozone from 1980 to 2019 over Central China is calculated after the removal of emission-attributed trend. These results indicate that the ozone increasing trend dependent on the changes of precursor emissions has offset the ozone mitigation attributed to the climate. • Effect of springtime thermal forcing over TP on summertime ozone is revealed. • Thermal forcing over Tibetan Plateau has an interannual to decadal variation. • Historical weather over Asian monsoon region are affected by thermal forcing over TP. • Ozone increases due to emissions has offset the ozone mitigation due to the climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• CCUS chain relies on a functioning regulatory and legal system at domestic level. • CCUS regulation benefits from clarity on project permitting and risk allocation. • Promotion of CCUS requires mainstreaming it in the climate mitigation portfolio. • Compliance with international law provides a common denominator for CCUS chain. The development of the carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) supply chain will require the establishment of a regulatory and legal regime, both at the international and domestic level, to manage risks at various parts of the supply chain and to support technology investment. Within this regulatory and legal framework, the regional and domestic regime has been identified as a crucial factor that could facilitate or inhibit the creation of a CCUS supply chain at a larger scale. According to the relevant literature, policy backing for CCUS has been supported in several countries and jurisdictions which represent both the source and sink of carbon dioxide. To evaluate the legal and regulatory developments which underpin the global matching of CO 2 sources and sinks, this article reviews and critically analyzes the legal and regulatory systems to address various challenges facing the CCUS development in Europe, China and the Middle East, because these jurisdictions have good representations, as sinks and sources of CO 2 , in developing the CCUS supply chain. These challenges include ensuring regulatory clarity to support CCUS development, integration of CCUS in the portfolio of climate change mitigation to create an enabling environment to improve the financial viability of CCUS, and ensuring consistency with international law. The findings of this article suggest that the regulatory systems in the three regions face various challenges and this article proposes some regulatory changes that are necessary for facilitating the CCUS supply chain at the domestic and regional level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• An integrated top-down and bottom-up modeling framework was developed. • Analyze low-carbon pathways for Chinese iron & steel industry towards carbon neutrality. • Both the supply-side and demand-side contributions to decarbonization are explored. • Energy-saving retrofitting technologies help short-term CO 2 emissions reduction. • Breakthrough technologies are crucial in achieving carbon neutrality. Iron and steel production in China contributes to 14% of China's total energy-related CO 2 emissions. Decarbonizing the iron and steel sector will therefore play an important role in achieving the goal of carbon neutrality. This study explored possible low-carbon transition pathways for China's iron and steel industry to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. An integrated approach was developed that combined a computable general equilibrium model and a bottom-up technology-selection module. The results indicated that although energy-saving technologies can reduce CO 2 emissions in the short term, in the long term, adopting breakthrough technologies (e.g., carbon capture and storage (CCS) and hydrogen-based direct reduction (DR)), increasing the share of scrap-based electric arc furnace (EAF) steel production, and decarbonizing upstream energy-supply sectors will be crucial for climate change mitigation. Hydrogen-based DR could be an effective option for CO 2 emission reduction in scenarios where CCS is not available, with its share increasing to 23%–25% by 2050. System-wide cross-sector decarbonization can help achieve climate targets at lower costs through flexible technology combinations and avoid carbon leakage into upstream energy-supply sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

About 3 billion people still rely on traditional sources of fuel. Biomass-based fuels were responsible for more than 4 million deaths in 2012. Household energy consumption is steadily increasing across cities due to the urbanization of rural areas, more economic and travel activities. In this review, Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA) and other bibliometric tools were applied to determine the conceptual structure and typological thematic areas of household emissions in urban areas. The current state of knowledge and opportunities towards creating carbon-neutral cities indicated that while most of the research was focussed on cities and regions of developed countries and China, the mitigation activities grouped under three broad heads - reducing emissions, consumption and impact of household emissions. Strong heterogeneity between the urban and rural areas, fuel options and human choices gave rise to fuel-stacking in developing countries. Integrated modelling and inclusion of environmental and human behavioural components into economic models were recognised as emerging fields oriented towards a systems approach. Accessibility and availability of clean energy and clean energy appliances were identified as the biggest challenges. To create carbon-neutral urban areas, integrated modelling should include categorization of carbon policy according to local conditions, analysis of feedback loops, embedded emissions, the global and regional impact of household consumption patterns, and uncertainty associated with mitigation measures. [Display omitted] • Carbon neutral cities should have access equality despite income inequality. • Multiple Correspondence Analysis indicated mitigation research focused on emissions, consumption and impacts. • Integrated modelling and general equilibrium models were the two emerging themes. • Risk, uncertainty, embedded emissions and feedback loops should be integrated into emission models. • Availability and accessibility to cleaner fuels is the biggest challenge for creating carbon-neutral cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Climate-sensitive additive stand biomass models were developed. • The difference in biomass estimations when using the new models at a large scale was quantified. • Forecast combination method reduced the uncertainty from the biomass models. • About $8.3 million carbon services were underestimated using traditional models. • Climate-sensitive stand biomass models were recommended for carbon service accounting. Accurate forest carbon service accounting is essential for climate change mitigation. At present, the knowledge about whether and how climate-sensitive stand biomass models could reduce the uncertainty of forest biomass/carbon estimation is lacking. Hence, the aim of this study is to develop climate-sensitive stand biomass models and quantify their differences. Data containing 539 sample plots of larch plantations in northern and northeastern China were utilized to develop two basic and the corresponding climate-sensitive stand biomass models. Owing to the uncertainty from predictors, the forecast combination method was used to combine the two basic models (FCMs) and the two climate-sensitive models (CS-FCMs) and to quantify the difference in biomass estimations at the plot and regional scales. Results showed that the adjusted R 2 values of the stand biomass models were greater than 0.85 and the relative root mean square errors ranged from 5.51% to 22.62%. The CS-FCMs produced more accurate biomass estimates than the FCMs. The difference in biomass estimations derived from biomass models with and without climatic variables was 411,549 tons or 0.27% at the regional scale, but the carbon value difference amounted to about $8.3 million. This study underlined the importance of accurate carbon accounting based on climate-modified stand biomass models for forest carbon management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stringent mitigation measures have reduced wintertime fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) concentrations by 42.2% from 2013 to 2018 in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, but severe PM pollution still frequently engulfs the region. The observed nitrate aerosols have not exhibited a significant decreasing trend and constituted a major fraction (about 20%) of the total PM 2.5 , although the surface-measured NO 2 concentration has decreased by over 20%. The contributions of nitrogen oxides (NO X) emissions mitigation to the nitrate and PM 2.5 concentrations and how to alleviate nitrate aerosols efficiently under the current situation still remains elusive. The WRF-Chem model simulations of a persistent and heavy PM pollution episode in January 2019 in the BTH reveal that NO X emissions mitigation does not help lower wintertime nitrate and PM 2.5 concentrations under current conditions in the BTH. A 50% reduction in NO X emissions only decreases nitrate mass by 10.3% but increases PM 2.5 concentrations by 3.2%, because the substantial O 3 increase induced by NO X mitigation offsets the HNO 3 loss and enhances sulfate and secondary organic aerosols formation. Our results are further consolidated by the occurrence of severe PM pollution in the BTH during the COVID-19 outbreak, with a significant reduction in NO 2 concentration. Mitigation of NH 3 emissions constitutes the priority measure to effectively lower the nitrate and PM 2.5 concentrations in the BTH under current conditions, with 35.5% and 12.7% decrease, respectively, when NH 3 emissions are reduced by 50%. [Display omitted] • Nitrate has accounted for about 20% of the total PM 2.5 in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. • NO X emissions mitigation does not help lower wintertime nitrate and PM 2.5 concentrations. • A 50% reduction in NO X emissions decreases nitrate by 10.3% but increases PM 2.5 by 3.2%. • Nitrate and PM 2.5 are reduced by 35.5% and 12.7% with a 50% reduction in NH 3 emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS) is considered a critical carbon dioxide reduction technology for climate change mitigation. More recently, it has been attracting significant attention from the Chinese government, industry and academia in relation to its research, development and deployment. This paper screens 1,202 unique scientific articles from Web of Science related to China's CCUS and employs Citespace to conduct a knowledge mapping of the domain. The results show that the number of publications have increased and CCUS has become a multidisciplinary area of study. The paper visually demonstrates the most productive institutions, main authors, and primary sources of China's CCUS research domain. Moreover, the paper explains how the research topics have changed over time and discovers the current research frontiers including "pipeline", "shale gas" and "steel". Of significant interest is the finding that China's CCUS research progress appears to be directly related to the increasing policy support through China's five-year planning process. However, research regarding public perception, financial mechanisms and appropriate business models for CCUS deployment is found to be less prevalent. Recommendations to improve research in these areas are provided from the perspective of government intervention. This paper also highlights the importance of continued government support for CCUS as part of the national development strategy for carbon emissions reduction and transitioning towards a low carbon future. • The evolution of China's CCUS research is identified using a bibliometric method. • Outlines research foci, most productive organizations, main authors and top-tier journals. • Government intervention appears the most significant driver for CCUS development in China. • Three research areas−"pipeline", "shale gas" and "steel"− are receiving strongest policy support. • The topics "public perception", "financial mechanisms", and "business models"− lack sufficient focus in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increasing vehicle numbers in China have raised issues on effective mitigation of the vehicular NO x emissions recently. Notably, temporally growing and spatial agglomeration of high vehicular NO x emissions make an essential challenge to the mitigation strategy-makers. However, so far, there have been few studies to give insight into the socioeconomic drivers like the spatial imbalance of socioeconomic development, vehicle structure and road infrastructure to help governors. To fill the above gap, this study explores drivers of temporal change and spatial differences by building a temporal-spatial decomposition model and accounting for national and regional NO x emissions from vehicles in China from 2005 to 2015. Results show that, of all the driving forces in this study, only road vehicle carrying capacity (ΔN VI) acts as a primary driving force for both temporal growing and spatial agglomeration of vehicular NO x emissions in China. Regional vehicle emission intensity (ΔN NI) and road economic growth (ΔN EI) only mainly contributed to spatial agglomeration. While economic development (ΔN G) played a crucial role in the temporal growing of vehicular NO x emissions in China. These findings indicate that the future mitigation policy should fully cover the comprehensive socioeconomic factors, which would be useful for China and other developing countries when aiming to improve the performance of their current vehicle emissions policy system. Image 1 • China's NO x emissions from provincial vehicles were estimated during 2005–2015. • A new temporal-spatial decomposition model was built to identify emission drivers. • Road vehicle carrying capacity drives both temporal change and spatial difference. • Regional emission intensity and road economic growth affect spatial difference. • Economic development played a crucial role in the temporal change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a low-cost, low-carbon, and clean renewable energy, hydropower is crucial to carbon emissions reduction and climate change mitigation. Compared with non-steady and highly volatile renewable energy, flexible hydropower can help secure the reliable operation of the grid. However, development cost increase, resettlement and environmental issues have recently hindered China's hydropower development. This paper first reviews the history and current status of hydropower development in China, integrates the economy-energy-environment system, the water-energy-food nexus, and socio-hydrology theory to analyze the complex influence mechanism of hydropower development, and identifies driving factors of hydropower development through a cost-benefit analysis. Then, the quantitative system dynamics (SD) model of hydropower development is constructed based on the interdisciplinary qualitative analysis. Combining incentive policies and technological progress, four scenarios are set. The multi-scenario prediction results and sensitivity analysis results of the SD model indicate that incentive policies can enhance the attractiveness of hydropower investment and significantly promote long-term stable hydropower development, while technological progress can improve the efficiency and carbon emissions reduction benefits of hydropower. Based on the comparative analysis of these results, specific policy recommendations for promoting sustainable development of green hydropower in China are proposed in terms of four aspects: the hydropower development concept, cooperation mechanism, policy mechanism, and technological progress. Image 1 • The influence mechanism of hydropower development is analyzed systematically. • Analytical frame integrates water, energy, economy, energy, environment, society. • System dynamics model is constructed based on an interdisciplinary analysis. • Multi-scenario results indicate different impacts of policy and technology. • Policy recommendations for sustainable hydropower development are proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Establishes a comprehensive framework to explore the multiple-effects exerted by urbanization on future building carbon emissions. • Constructs a carbon emission dynamic scenario simulation model by combining the extended Kaya identity and Monte Carlo simulation. • The building sector will reach its peak at 3.09 (±0.36) Bt CO 2 in 2037 (±4). • Rural residential building sector will be the first to reach its energy and emission peak. • Economic urbanization and space urbanization exert major promoting effects on the peaking time and emission peaks of building carbon emissions. The accelerating urbanization has posed great challenges to China's carbon-mitigation efforts and global climate change response. However, how does the urbanization process impact the peak of future carbon emissions from buildings is still unclear. This study first establishes a comprehensive urbanization framework from three dimensions. Then, a dynamic scenario simulation model is innovatively constructed by combining the extended Kaya identity and Monte Carlo simulation approach to explore future dynamic evolution trajectory, possible peaks and peaking time of China's building carbon emissions from 2000 to 2050, considering the uncertainties of factors. Finally, dynamic sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate the contributions of different dimensions of the urbanization. Results show that under the business-as-usual scenario, the rural residential building sector will be the first to reach its energy peak in 2027. Dynamic scenario simulation shows that the building sector will peak at 3.09 (±0.36) Bt CO 2 in 2037 (±4). Specifically, the urban residential building sector will peak at 1.27 (±0.18) Bt CO 2 in 2040 (±4), while the rural residential building sector will peak at 0.51 (±0.03) Bt CO 2 in 2021 (±4) and the commercial building sector will peak in 2038 (±4) at 1.41 (±0.30) Bt CO 2. Dynamic sensitivity analysis indicates that rural–urban migration will exert promoting effect on the peaking time and emission peaks of building carbon emissions through the concomitant effects of the urbanization process, i.e., the economic urbanization and space urbanization. Overall, this study can provide a better insight into the impact of urbanization on carbon emission peak and can support governments and decision-makers to formulate effective carbon-mitigation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• SOC protection mechanisms varied across three grasslands. • SOC stock in the alpine meadow was the largest pool and mostly physically protected. • The typical steppe and desert SOC stocks were smaller and mostly chemically protected. • Typical steppes possess greater potential to sequester C in soil. • Associations with protected C were observed for bacterial and fungal taxa. Sequestration of carbon (C) in soils provides an important tool for climate change mitigation and grasslands offer significant potential for this approach. In this study, we examined soil organic C (SOC) protection mechanisms in alpine meadow, typical steppe and desert grassland ecosystems located in the Gansu province of China. We also examined which microbial taxonomic groups are associated with physically protected C and unprotected C. Soil samples for the study were collected from 0∼10 and 10∼20 cm soil depths from a desert in Ping Shan Hu county, typical steppe in Huanxian county and alpine meadow in Maqu county. The soil samples were subjected to the soil physiochemical fractionation to identify physically, chemically and biochemically protected and unprotected C. The soil bacterial and fungal communities were examined by DNA metabarcoding using Illumina sequencing, and redundancy analysis was used to identify microbial taxa with close associations with physically protected C and unprotected C. The alpine meadow consisted of the largest SOC stock, mostly physically protected (87.14 %), while also consisting of a large amount of unprotected C. Typical steppe and desert SOC stocks were smaller but the C was in chemically protected stable forms (86.25 % and 60.22 % respectively). The redundancy analysis identified bacterial phyla Proteobacteria, Acidobacteria and Verrucomicrobia and the fungal phyla Zygomycota and Chytridiomycota as microbial groups that were significantly related to physical C protection and unprotected C. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A successful transformation from conventional to renewable energy can contribute to climate change mitigation and regional development. As the co-host city of the 2022 Winter Olympic Games and the only National Renewable Energy Demonstration Zone in China, Zhangjiakou urgently needs to transform its conventional energy-dependent industries. This paper establishes a Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP)-Zhang model to examine the environmental and socio-economic effects of renewable energy development in Zhangjiakou by projecting the energy consumption and associated greenhouse gas emissions by various sectors over the 2016–2050 period. Two scenarios are designed, i.e., the business as usual scenario (BAU) and the integrated scenario (INT) (including three sub-scenarios, i.e., renewable energy alternatives scenario (REA), industrial structure optimization scenario (ISO) and energy saving facility scenario (ESF)). Results indicate that under the INT scenario, Zhangjiakou's greenhouse gas emissions would peak in 2030 with 13.23% of lower energy consumption when compared with the BAU scenario. Compared with the conventional energy, renewable energy shows competitive advantages in terms of greenhouse gas reduction, employment opportunities and economic costs. The total number of employees would reach 0.15 million by 2050 under the INT scenario, 1.71 times more than that in the BAU scenario. Feasible low-carbon pathways and co-benefits strategies associated with industrial transformation and renewable energy substitution should be pursued in future actionable plans. Results found in this study could provide importance information for achieving renewable energy transformation and associated socio-environmental benefits within and beyond China. • A LEAP-Zhang model is established to analyze energy-related socio-environmental dynamics. • The energy-related GHG emissions are estimated for the Olympic year and peak year. • The environmental, economic and employment effects of renewable energy transition are estimated. • Feasible energy transition pathways are proposed for achieving socio-environmental benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Building energy use is becoming increasingly important in China. Despite a rapid growth in recent years, energy use intensity in China is still relatively low compared to other advanced economies; thus, there is still substantial room for it to increase as living standards and industrial services are improved. It is therefore important to focus on the future development of building energy use by considering new trends in the building and energy sectors, as well as the role of occupant behavior. This study uses the China Building Energy Model (CBEM) to model China's building energy consumption and carbon emissions up to 2050 for different scenarios based on these considerations. The results indicate that building energy use will be 80% higher than the current situation if the strategies of the 13th Five-Year Plan are maintained and approximately 10% higher if stronger strategies toward energy efficiency are employed. Carbon emissions are predicted to peak around 2020 to 2035. The contributions of key strategies in different subsectors are also discussed. This research suggests that, through the use of suitable strategies and policies, energy use and carbon emissions in China's building sector can achieve the combined goals of energy revolution and climate change mitigation. • China's building energy consumption and carbon emissions up to 2050 were modeled. • China's building energy use will be 10%–80% higher under different scenarios. • The contributions of key strategies in different subsectors were discussed. • China's building sector is able to develop sustainably with suitable strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Rational reducing fertilizer and water inputs could effectively reduce N 2 O emission and Net-GWP together with maintain the grape yield. • High N 2 O emission and Net-GWP in table grape vineyard was probably attributed to the high fertilizer and water inputs. • The Manufacture and transport of N fertilizer, N 2 O emission, and electricity generation were the main contributors to vineyard Net-GWP. Ensuring fruit productivity and mitigation climate change under low consumption of fertilizer and irrigation can contribute to sustainable agriculture. The objective of this study was to determine whether higher fruit production and lower net global warming potential (Net-GWP) could be realized concomitantly by reducing the amount of fertilizer and water applied. The effect of water and fertilizer management on fruit yield, N 2 O and CH 4 emissions variation was measured over a two-year period to gain insight into Net-GWP and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) in wine grape vineyard (WGV) and table grape vineyard (TGV) in North China. Two fertilizer and water managements were set in each vineyard: optimized practice (OP) treatment and traditional practice (TP) treatment. The results showed that the OP treatment significantly (P < 0.05) increased grape fruit by 10.2 % and 10.7 % in WGV and TGV, respectively, in comparison with TP treatment. Besides, the fluxes N 2 O and CH 4 showed significant seasonal variation and the maximum were occurred from April to September and the N 2 O emissions were strongly decreased in OP treatment. Compared with the TP treatment, the OP treatment significantly (P < 0.05) decreased the Net-GWP and GHGI by 13.2 % and 21.5 % in WGV, as well as decreased that by 21 % and 28.6 % in TGV. The process of manufacture and transport of N fertilizer, the N 2 O emission and the electricity generation for pumping irrigation were the three main contributors to vineyard Net-GWP. Thus we concluded that higher fruit production and lower Net-GWP could be realized concomitantly by reducing fertilizer and water application in WGV and TGV in North China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• EBSR divides responsibility for emissions in trade between producers and consumers. • EBSR goes beyond consumption-based (CBA) and production-based (PBA) accounting. • Responsibility is proportional to economic benefits from emitting free of charge. • With EBSR, China is attributed higher responsibility for emissions than in CBA. • Lower responsibility is attributed to both the US and the EU. How to share responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions between consumers and producers is a highly sensitive question in international climate policy negotiations. Traditional 'Production-Based Accounting' (PBA), which assigns responisibility to the region where emissions are released, has frequently been challenged by 'Consumption-Based Accounting' (CBA) schemes that suggest that greenhouse gas emissions generated to produce traded goods and services should be attributed to their final consumers. PBA and CBA both lack a sound foundation in economic theory as they do not consider the economic benefits accruing to producers or consumers if carbon emissions do not carry a price that reflects their social costs. We build on well-established economic theory to derive how to share responsibility for trade-related emissions between producers and consumers and apply this novel approach for the most prominent bilateral trade relationships using multi-regional input–output data. We propose an 'Economic Benefit Shared Responsibility' (EBSR) scheme, in which China is attributed significantly higher responsibility for emissions than in CBA, while lower emissions and responsibility are attributed to both the US and the EU. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Effective international cooperation is an important measure to mitigate climate change. The purpose of this study is to clarify the research progress in the field of cooperation on emission reduction, identify the influential authors and articles, and reveal the main research topics. Based on the bibliometric method and the Web of Science database, this study analyzes the literature in the field of cooperation on emission reduction. The results show that the publications in this field have increased significantly over the past decade, with the USA and China are the most influential countries. Keyword co-occurrence and frequency analysis show that the most important research topics are as follows: burden-sharing and equity, the stability of the climate coalition and international environmental agreements, technology transfer and climate finance, the linkage of carbon markets, and the response to noncooperation behavior. The main methods involved are game theory model, integrated assessment models, and computable general equilibrium model. Equitable distribution of mitigation responsibilities is the basis for cooperation on carbon reduction. Specific rulebooks for carbon market linkage is the key to its successful implementation. This study helps researchers to clarify the current research status in the field of cooperation on emission reduction and provide valuable information for future research. Image 1 • A bibliometric review of cooperation on climate mitigation was conducted. • Highly cited articles and references are discussed to explore the research theme. • Collaboration networks between countries are shown with the visualization tools. • The research hotspots are discussed based on the keywords co-occurrence analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Food waste (FW) has become a global sustainability challenge due partly to its significant environmental impacts (e.g., greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions) from traditional treatment methodologies such as landfill and incineration. This is particularly the case for developing countries, for example over 90% of FW in China is currently blended with municipal solid waste and disposed of by landfilling and incineration. The anaerobic digestion (AD) technologies for energy recovery, however, has often been identified as an effective approach for mitigating FW treatment related GHG emissions. In order to benchmark and quantify such reduction potentials, a dynamic model has been built to characterize the generation and flow of FW and treatment associated GHG emissions in China from 2001 to 2040. Our results show that the total FW generation from household and catering sectors reached 170 ± 30 Mt in 2018 and will steadily increase to approximately 220 ± 42 Mt by 2040. Accordingly, the FW treatment related GHG emissions reached 137 ± 26 Mt CO 2 e in 2018 and would rise to approximately 180 Mt±33 CO 2 e by 2040 if waste management continues with the current pattern in a Business As Usual (BAU) scenario. Compared to the BAU scenario, the scenarios subject to AD technology implementation (from conservative to optimistic) could significantly reduce GHG emissions and ensure a proportional contribution of this sector to China's national emission reduction goal (55% by 2025 and 65% by 2030 compared to 2005). Specifically, a cumulative amount of approximately 1.9 Bt CO 2 e could be mitigated between 2019 and 2040 under the optimistic scenario (with 60%, 80%, and 80%, respectively, of household food waste, catering food waste, and waste cooking oil treated by AD). These findings could not only inform evidence-based policy making to facilitate the waste-to-energy development for FW treatment in China, but also shed light on the sustainable FW management and AD technology implementation in other developing countries. • The total generation of food waste from both household and catering sectors reached 170 ± 30 Mt in 2018. • Over 90% of food waste is currently blended with municipal solid waste and disposed of by landfilling and incineration. • Anaerobic digestion based waste-to-energy technologies can halve the GHG emissions of food waste treatment in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Species diversity enhanced soil organic carbon storage in subtropical forests. • Soil organic carbon storage decreased with MAT and MAP in subtropical forests. • Soil organic carbon storage was closely related to leaf litter C/N and root biomass. Tropical and subtropical forest ecosystems play an important role in the global carbon regulation. Although positive relationships between biodiversity and soil organic carbon (SOC) storage have been found in experimental grasslands, biodiversity effects on SOC storage in natural forests remain debated. Based on a large dataset from 523 forest inventory plots across subtropical forests in China, we tested the relationship between biodiversity and SOC storage and examined whether environmental conditions (temperature, precipitation, soil properties) and litter quantity (leaf litter and root biomass) and quality (leaf litter carbon to nitrogen ratio [leaf litter C/N]) had effects on SOC storage. Furthermore, we used linear mixed-effects models to test the relative effects of biodiversity, environmental conditions, and litter quantity and quality on SOC storage. We used structural equation models to test how these variables directly or indirectly affected SOC storage. We found that species diversity, together with climatic factors (mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation), leaf litter C/N and root biomass determined SOC storage in subtropical forests at a large spatial scale. SOC storage was most strongly affected by climatic factors, followed by leaf litter C/N. Species diversity had both direct and indirect (through root biomass and leaf litter C/N) effects on SOC storage after accounting for environmental conditions. We also found that the positive diversity–SOC storage relationships were stronger in low and medium mean annual precipitation. Our findings highlight that higher species diversity can lead to higher SOC storage and therefore the conservation of biodiversity could play an important role in climate change mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Halocarbon emissions in the building sector is increasing. • Non-Annex parties become bigger emitter instead of Annex parties. • Building sector accounts for more than half of global HFCs emissions. • Data sufficiency is key barrier for policy making. • Building cooling demand increase will push further halocarbon emissions. Estimates of the non-CO 2 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions contributed by the buildings sector are necessary to evaluate this sector's potential for climate change mitigation. As data is lacking on fluorinated gases (F-gases) and hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions from the buildings sector, this study aimed to estimate these emissions. First, the share of total global GHG emissions represented by buildings-sector emissions was estimated. Then, the HFC emissions of the buildings sectors in several countries (USA, EU, Japan, and China) are compiled. Next, based on necessary assumptions, global buildings-sector HFC emissions were estimated. Finally, this paper discusses implications for policy-makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• An efficient theoretical framework considering multiple carbon pools and wood products was developed. • The optimal rotations were quite sensitive to the considered carbon pools, stand conditions and economic parameters. • The gaps of the optimal rotations between LEV and MSY were as large as 15 years of larch plantations. Plantations can provide a large amount of wood products for human society but also have incredible potential to sequester carbon dioxide from the atmosphere due to its growth. However, management of these even-aged plantations to maximize the joint benefits of wood production and carbon sequestration objectives for forest managers and policymakers remains unclear, especially under the stringent targets of 2 °C climatic change mitigation. Therefore, an efficient theoretical framework based on the typical Hartman model was developed in this paper to determine the optimal rotations of even-aged plantations, in which multiple wood products and carbon pools within an infinite time horizon were considered. As an example, the sensitivity of the optimal rotations and their corresponding land expectation values (LEVs) with respect to different carbon pools (i.e., wood products, bioenergy, harvested residuals, stump roots, and naturally generated dead organic matter), as well as a set of stand conditions (site index and stand density) and economic parameters (carbon price and discount rate) were quantitatively evaluated for state-owned larch plantations in northeast China. The results showed that the alternative carbon pools could increase the optimal rotations of larch plantations by 1–3 years for a commonly used management scenario (site index = 16 m, carbon price = 100 CNY/ton)). The optimal rotations decreased linearly with increasing site indices (R 2 = 0.95) and initial densities (R 2 = 0.98) but increased linearly with increasing carbon prices (R 2 = 0.99); however, significant negative exponential trends were observed with increasing discount rates (R 2 = 0.92). Except for some extreme cases (site index ≤12 m, discount rate ≥ 6%), the optimal rotations of LEVs are usually larger than those of maximizing sustainable timber yield, in which the differences between them were as much as approximately 4 years of site index (20 m), 6 years of initial density (6666 trees/ha), 15 years of carbon price (1000 CNY/ton) and 9 years of discount rate (3%). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Blue Carbon (BC) strategy refers to the approaches that mitigate and adapt to climate change through the conservation and restoration of seagrass, saltmarsh and mangrove ecosystems and, in some BC programs, also through the expansion of seaweed aquaculture. The major losses of coastal habitats in combination with the commitments of China under the Paris Agreement provide unique opportunity and necessity to develop a strong Chinese BC program. Here, we (1) characterize China's BC habitats, examine their changes since 1950 along with the drivers of changes; (2) consider the expansion of seaweed aquaculture and how this may be managed to become an emerging BC resource in China, along with the engineering solutions required to enhance its potential; and (3) provide the rationale and elements for BC program in China. We find China currently has 1326–2149 km2 wild and 2–15 km2 created mangrove, saltmarsh and seagrass habitats, while 9236–10059 km2 (77–87%) has been lost since 1950, mainly due to land reclamation. The current area of farmed seaweed habitat is 1252–1265 km2, which is close to the area of wild mangrove, saltmarsh and seagrass habitats. We conclude that BC strategies have potentials yet to be fully developed in China, particularly through climate change adaptation benefits such as coastal protection and eco-environmental co-benefits of seaweed farming such as habitat creation for fish and other biota, alleviation of eutrophication, hypoxia and acidification, and the generation of direct and value added products with lower environmental impact relative to land-based production. On this basis, we provide a roadmap for BC strategies adjusted to the unique characteristics and capacities of China. Blue Carbon (BC) plays important roles in climate change mitigation/adaptation. In this paper, we 1) characterize China's BC habitats and examine their changes since 1950 along with the drivers of changes; 2) consider the expansion of seaweed aquaculture and how this may be managed to become an emerging BC resource in China, along with the engineering solutions required to enhance its potential; 3) provide the rationale and elements for BC program in China; and 4) draw a roadmap for BC strategies adjusted to the unique characteristics and capacities of China.Porphyra farm in Dongtou, Wenzhou city, Zhejiang province, China. Image 1 • China's Blue Carbon (BC) habitats, changes and the drivers of changes since 1950. • Potential BC resources, seaweed aquaculture expansion with engineering solutions. • BC Benefits for climate adaptation and co-benefits for environment and economy. • Great potential of China's BC strategies through climate change adaptation benefits. • A roadmap for BC strategies adjusted to the China's characteristics and capacities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's transportation industry, with its typical characteristics of "high energy consumption and high emissions", is a key point for China's CO 2 emission reduction. An investigation of the driving factors of China's transport energy-related CO 2 emissions has great importance for clarifying the "gains" and "losses" as well as the future focuses of CO 2 emissions emission reduction in this sector. Existing studies on the driving factors of transport CO 2 emissions in China fail to incorporate effects of technology and efficiency into decomposition analysis framework. Based on the provincial panel data of China's transportation industry for the period of 2004–2016, this paper uses a comprehensive decomposition framework, which combines the logarithmic mean Divisia index method (LMDI) and production-theoretical decomposition analysis (PDA), to decompose China's transport CO 2 emissions into nine components: emission factor effect, energy structure effect, scale effect, regional structure effect, energy-saving technology effect, production technology effect, energy efficiency effect, production efficiency effect, and potential energy intensity effect. The main results indicate that: (1) during the sample period, China's transport industry witnessed 498.998 million tons (Mt) CO 2 emissions growth. Scale effect was the largest contributor, followed by production technology, energy-saving technology, and energy structure; (2) the improvement of energy efficiency and production efficiency, the decline of electricity's emission factor, and regional structure adjustment played active roles in the CO 2 emission reduction of transportation industry; (3) the performance of various driving factors varies greatly in different provinces. Local governments should establish and implement policies tailored to their characteristics. • A production-theoretical approach was used for China's transport CO 2 emissions. • It can decompose CO 2 emissions from technology and efficiency perspectives. • Results show that during 2004–2016, China's transport CO 2 emissions increased by 498.998 Mt. • Output effect was the largest contributor to this remarkable increase of transport CO 2 emissions. • Technology and efficiency factors cumulatively reduced 242.1 Mt transport CO 2 emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Emissions of different classes (10 income groups) were accounted using survey data. • Population expansion of classes and change of consumption patterns were captured. • Urban middle-class and the rich contributed to 40%, 38% of total CO 2 , respectively. • Consumption pattern and population of middle class were main drivers of emissions. The sizes of China's middle and rich classes have undergone rapid and sustained growth, which has a considerable influence on consumption and the consequent carbon emissions from population growth and shifts in consumption patterns. However, the contributions of specific income classes and the effects of their population expansion have not been quantitatively evaluated. Here, we incorporated national household surveys with input-output tables from 2010–2016 and used structural decomposition analysis to determine the effects at both the national and sectoral levels. We found that the urban and rural middle classes (including lower-middle, middle, and higher-middle income groups), accounting for 39% and 27% of the total population, contributed nearly 40% and 15% of the total household consumption emissions in 2016, respectively. In comparison, the urban rich class contributed 32% of carbon emissions, with only 11% of the total population in 2016. Furthermore, the population expansion of the urban middle and rich classes strongly drove the growth of emissions from 2012 to 2016 (26% and 38% of the total increase, respectively). The consumption pattern changes of the middle and rich classes drove 131% and 83% of the growth from 2010 to 2016, respectively. Other factors, e.g., carbon intensity and industrial structure, exerted negative effects in some years. Thus, the rising middle and rich classes were the primary drivers of China's carbon emissions. Energy supply, metal smelting, wholesale and retail were the most affected sectors. The results suggested a sustained pressure of climate change mitigation in consideration of its grand plan for middle-class expansion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The energy stored in biomass, a key component of global sustainable energy, is essential for achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, especially for climate change mitigation and energy security. However, it remains unknown how much energy is stored in the vegetation biomass of China's terrestrial ecosystems. Furthermore, the shortage of biomass has limited the development of China's bioeconomy and bioenergy industry, requiring us to seek more multi-source and sustainable biomass supplies. In view of this, through comprehensive investigations and systematic data integration (including biomass data, calorific value data, land cover data, climate data, etc.), we explored the gross biomass energy (BE) reserves and their spatiotemporal pattern based on a total of 14 vegetation types that account for 76.24% of China's land area. The theoretical potential of gross BE in China was estimated as 535.91 EJ in 2010, which was equivalent to 18.29 Gt standard coal. BE showed a trend of continuous increase from 1980 to 2060 and is expected to peak in 2030. Importantly, BE (per land area or per capita) was significantly negatively correlated with provincial development levels in China. Our findings indicate that China has abundant BE reserves, which have potential as feedstocks for the production of different forms of energy in the context of sustainable development. Furthermore, more advanced low-cost technologies, such as coal and biomass co-gasification, are expected to promote the transformation and upgradation of energy systems in China in the future. • Diverse biomass supply ensures sustainable bioenergy without adverse effects on food security and the environment. • Biomass energy in China was approximately 535.91 EJ (or 18.29 Gt standard coal), representing a steady increase from 1980 to 2060. • A negative correlation between biomass energy and provincial development level highlights the importance of effective compensation policies for sustainability. • Ample biomass is vital in scenarios of upgrading energy and stimulating green economic growth in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As bioenergy produces neutral or even negative carbon emissions, the assessment of biomass resources and associated emissions mitigation is a key step toward a low carbon future. However, relevant comprehensive estimates lack in China. Here, we measure the energy potential of China's domestic biomass resources (including crop residues, forest residues, animal manure, municipal solid waste and sewage sludge) from 2000 to 2016 and draw the spatial-temporal variation trajectories at provincial resolution. Scenario analysis and life cycle assessment are also applied to discuss the greenhouse gas mitigation potentials. Results show that the collectable potential of domestic biomass resources increased from 18.31 EJ in 2000 to 22.67 EJ in 2016 with overall uncertainties fluctuating between (−26.6%, 39.7%) and (−27.6%, 39.5%). Taking energy crops into account, the total potential in 2016 (32.69 EJ) was equivalent to 27.6% of China's energy consumption. If this potential can be realized in a planned way to displace fossil fuels during the period 2020–2050, cumulative greenhouse gas emissions mitigation would be in the range of 1652.73–5859.56 Mt CO 2 -equivalent, in which the negative greenhouse gas emissions due to the introduction of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage would account for 923.78–1344.13 Mt CO 2 -equivalent. Contrary to increasing bioenergy potentials in most provinces, there are declining trends in Tibet, Beijing, Shanghai and Zhejiang. In addition, Yunnan, Sichuan and Inner Mongolia would have the highest associated greenhouse gas mitigation potentials. This study can provide valuable guidance on the exploitation of China's untapped biomass resources for the mitigation of global climate change. • China's bioenergy potential in 2016 accounted for 27.6% of its energy consumption. • The bioenergy potential in Tibet, Beijing, Shanghai and Zhejiang was declining. • GHG mitigation potentials of China's bioenergy would be 1653–5860 Mt CO 2 e by 2050. • China's bioenergy can contribute 6–21% to a global carbon mitigation goal in 2050. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Risk perception understanding is fundamental for risk management. The effects of catastrophic events on public risk perception of projects such as nuclear plants have become a critical concern, however, there is still few studies concentrate on public risk perception of extreme weather brought by climate change. In this study, the proposed statistical methods were applied to evaluate the impacts of Typhoon Meranti on climate change risk perception of undergraduates from Xiamen University, China. It is found that both the evaluation on personal efforts and domestic community efforts on climate change mitigation were significantly affected by the Typhoon Meranti, while the public risk perception structure of climate change did not change significantly after the typhoon. Meanwhile, disciplinary background, teaching contents and the location of hometown are main influential factors on interviewees' risk perception of climate change. The results indicated that the transformation of public risk perception is a long-term process, education can be an effective approach to promote public's concern and comprehension on climate change. The proposed framework explores a quantitative method to measure the impacts of an extreme weather event on public risk perception and its policy implications on public risk. Image 1 • Public risk perception changes after an extreme event are quantitatively studied. • Evaluation on personal and domestic community level efforts affected significantly. • The structure of public risk perception of climate change remained post-typhoon. • Education can be effective to promote public's concern and comprehension on climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mass absorption efficiency (MAE) and mass scattering efficiency (MSE) of aerosols are critical to their light extinction capacity. In winter in northern China, episodes of clear air and heavy haze alternately occur due to the high primary emission and secondary formation of aerosols, coupled with changing weather conditions. These occurrences facilitate detailed investigation of how significant changes in the pollution level impact the MAE and MSE, they also enable the determination of whether current air quality improvement measures are also beneficial to the mitigation of climate change, to avoid climatic side effects of attempts to clean the air. In the present study, a one-month observation campaign was conducted in Beijing, China, during the 2016–2017 winter season. A photoacoustic extinctiometer, which is an in situ measurement instrument, was used to investigate the aerosol absorption coefficient (σ a) and scattering coefficient (σ s) at an infra-red wavelength of 870 nm. The MAE and MSE were found to vary differently with increasing pollution level. A positive correlation between the particulate matter concentration (PM 2.5) and the MAE was observed for PM 2.5 < 100 μg m−3, with the increase in the MAE declining for PM 2.5 = 100–200 μg m−3, and the MAE subsequently stabilizing. In contrast, the MSE continuously increased with increasing PM 2.5. The single scattering albedo (SSA), which governs the climatic effect of aerosols, was observed to be a function of both σ a and σ s , increasing from 0.827 ± 0.018 (average ± standard deviation) for a bottom particulate matter concentration group of (0, 25] μg m−3 to 0.924 ± 0.007 for a top particulate matter concentration group of (300, 400] μg m−3, indicating a positive correlation between the SSA and PM 2.5. These observations suggest a risk of current clean air measures weakening or eliminating the cooling effect of ambient aerosols in northern China. It seems that no previous study has involved the simultaneous acquisition of σ a and σ s at the same wavelength with the purpose of determining how increasing air pollution differently impacts the MAE and MSE. Practical measures that can be used to decrease the black carbon-to-PM 2.5 ratio include phasing out or reducing black carbon-rich sources and promoting technologies that decrease the black carbon-to-organic carbon ratio. Image 1 • MAE and MSE were found to show different responses to escalating pollution levels. • A risk of weakened cooling effect of ambient aerosol with the clean air process. • Practical solution was proposed to against the risks in China's clean air process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Baseline scenarios are essential and important in forward-looking studies. • Carbon tax policy impacts are found to be highly diverse across baseline scenarios. • Output levels can change dramatically (e.g. −19% to −64% for power output in India). • Real GDP can also change significantly (e.g. −0.66% to 1.54% in China). • Baselines with honed renewable projections facilitates fewer economic trade-offs. As a result of statistical contingencies, research frequently employs aged databases to examine the impacts of energy and climate change policies in contemporary situations, or in forward timeframes out to 2050 or even 2100. These forward-looking studies require a base case scenario in order to assess the impacts of a policy. In this article, we hypothesise how a baseline is 'rolled forward', and specifically, how this process can materially alter the apparent performance of an energy or climate change policy. In the literature, we find a variety of methods are used to update databases and project forward base case scenarios, some which scale an entire economy to a general trend of growth, whereas others account for sectoral differences. We extend a global electricity-detailed model (GTAP-E-Power) to examine our hypothesis. We evaluate impacts of a world-wide carbon tax policy ($50/t of carbon dioxide equivalent) using three different baselines, with varying levels of specificity relating to macroeconomic projections and sectoral developments and constraints. Results show the impact on sectors and the overall economy in all countries are highly diverse when different baselines are used. For example, fossil-based power output in the United States declines between 36.7 and 65.5% while Real GDP in China declines between −0.66 and −1.54% for an identical policy, depending on which baseline methodology is used. Above all, we find that stronger development of renewable energy and technology in the baselines results in lower costs of a climate change mitigation policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Paris Agreement on climate change has calls for urgent, radical, and transformative actions in mitigation and adaptation, particularly in terms of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emission. There are many terms used to describe the process of reducing GHGs, including decarbonization, low carbon development (LCD) or low carbon transition (LCT). The conceptualization of these terms remains puzzling and there has not been any consensus to explain the meaning and their interrelationship. Clearer definition and conceptual boundaries are necessary to improve the coherence of overarching practices to cut CO 2 emission. The paper aims to review key concepts related to climate change mitigation related to the reduction of CO 2 and efforts toward net-zero emission in the academic literature, by (1) examining progress of the literature over time, (2) identifying geographical locus and sectoral focus of the literature, (3) determining the interrelationships between the key concepts. We use a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) method for data collection by selecting peer-reviewed literature from Scopus and analyzing the data with content analysis and bibliometric analysis. The findings are, firstly, the publications of the literature are influenced by global and national climate change policies and the interest of scholars affiliated to institutions from major emitter countries. Therefore, the literature is mostly originating from countries that emit the most CO 2 while also implement mitigations to reduce CO 2 emission. Secondly, China is the country where studies are mostly focused and also where the authors are affiliated/located. However, publications from the United Kingdom are cited the most. Thirdly, there are three clusters of literature found, namely that LCD and LCT are the terms used to identify visions for climate mitigation, while decarbonization is the actions and processes to achieve either LCD or LCT (as the visions). • The dynamic of climate change policies influence the literature trend. • The literature is mostly originating from major CO 2 emitter. • Low carbon development and low carbon transition are visional terms. • Decarbonization indicates the processes of decoupling CO 2 to achieve the visions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Petroleum refining is a technology complex, energy- and CO 2 emission-intensive industrial process, which is affected by the type and property of the crude oil. China has been the exploitation of crude oil to paraffinic most. This paper targets to quantify and evaluate the material or energy metabolism and environment loads of paraffin-based petroleum at refining process unit-level through the established petroleum flow and energy flow on the CO 2 emissions accounting framework, and explores energy conservation and CO 2 emission reduction pathways and policy implications, using a typical paraffin-based petroleum refining enterprise in China as a case. The results indicated that the crude oil from the inputs were fractionated in the atmospheric and vacuum distillation (AVD) unit, and its energy consumption and CO 2 emissions accounted for 14.38% and 13.2% of the total energy consumption and CO 2 emissions in the case study, respectively. With the transformation of petroleum refinery plant structure, fluid catalytic cracking (FCC), ketone benzol dewaxing (KBD), and delayed coking units dominated more energy consumption and CO 2 emissions. FCC unit was both the largest energy consumer and supplier, flue gas waste heat recovery efficiency of which was an important factor affecting energy conservation and CO 2 emission reduction for FCC unit and even enterprise. KBD unit records the largest energy and CO 2 emission intensities, which are 67.95 kgce/t product and 256.82 kgCO 2e /t product respectively, due to the high wax content of paraffin-based crude oil and the coal-dominated power generation structure. Based on these research findings, three mitigation policy recommendations were proposed, including the improvement of energy efficiency, optimization of energy consumption structure and product output structure. Carbon capture and storage can reduce CO 2 emission by about a third in the concentrated units of primary energy consumption (i.e. AVD, FCC, and DC). The results of this paper are key components of the life cycle assessment of the CO 2 emissions of petroleum fuels produced by domestic paraffin-based crude oil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Abnormal correlation was verified between the actual evaporation (AE) and evaporation demands (ED) in the humid region. • Penman and Budyko equations were combined to assess the integrated response chain from a changing environment to AE. • The compensation function of afforestation was highlighted for the decrease in AE against the impact of decreasing ED. • Transformation mechanism of the Penman into Bouchet hypotheses is investigated in the regional water-energy balance. Generally, atmospheric evaporation demand (AED) shows a positive correlation with actual evaporation (AE) in the Yangtze River basin. In order to explore whether and why abnormal correlation exits in its five sub-basins, the temporal changes between AED and AE were compared, and then the impacts of climate change and human activities on abnormal correlations were assessed using the sensitivity method of Penman equation and the decomposition method of Budyko equation. The results indicated: (1) Pan evaporation and potential evaporation (indicators of AED) decreased at rates of up to -0.04 and -0.06 mm d−1 decade−1, respectively. In contrast, the water budget-derived evaporation (an indicator of AE) increased at the rate of 0.09 mm d−1 decade−1 in the Fuhe River basin and remained stable in other basins. Abnormal correlations (nonpositive correlations) were observed. (2) Decreasing net radiation and wind speed were major climate factors resulting in simultaneous temporal decreases in AED and AE. In contrast, afforestation was a major human factor leading to an increase in annual AE of 78 mm, but had no effect on AED. Afforestation was the primary driving force of the abnormal correlation. These results could provide water-energy guidance for urban climate change mitigation and flood/drought disaster management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest-steppe ecotones are generally regarded as very sensitive to climate change. However, it is still unclear whether they can be used to track past climate changes due to the combined effects of climate forcing and topographic factors. We first explored shifts of the whole forest-steppe ecotone in northern China during the Holocene by collecting 383 topsoil pollen samples to establish discriminant functions representative of forest, forest-steppe ecotone, and temperate steppe. The discriminant functions were applied to 39 fossil pollen sites to reconstruct the range of the forest-steppe ecotone during the Holocene. Our results showed that the shift of the forest-steppe ecotone exhibited a generally consistent trend with the intensity of the EASM, which was characterized by southward retreat during the early Holocene from 12,000 to 8000 cal. yr BP, northward expansion during the middle Holocene from 8000 to 4000 cal. yr BP, and southward retreat during the late Holocene from 4000 to 0 cal. yr BP, suggesting a dominant role of precipitation provided by the EASM. However, some sites in mountainous regions still indicated forest group membership within the ecotone, implying possible vertical forest migration. We stress that EASM and topography co-determine the shift of the forest-steppe ecotone in northern China, and mountainous terrain differences also benefit the vertical forest migrations when threatened by the dry climate. Our study implies that future climate change may cause three-dimensional changes in vegetation, which should be considered in climate change mitigation. • East Asian summer monsoon and topography co-determine the shift of the forest-steppe ecotone in northern China. • Mountainous terrain differences also benefit the vertical forest migrations when threatened by the dry climate. • The climate indication of the forest-steppe ecotone needs to be considered from three dimensions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large ammonia (NH 3) emissions contribute approximately 8–30% to the fine particle pollution in China and highlight the need for understanding the emission trends and mitigation effects of NH 3 in the future. The purpose of this study is to predict the NH 3 emissions and analyze the mitigation potential up to year 2040 by scenario analysis based on the established new NH 3 emission inventory from anthropogenic sources for the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region. The results showed that the total NH 3 emission in the BTH region was estimated at 966.14 Gg in 2016. Under the Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario, the total NH 3 emissions in 2030 and 2040 would increase by 13% and 26% compared with 2016 levels, with average annual growth rates of 0.9% and 1.0%, respectively. Livestock will continue to dominate NH 3 emissions in the future, with the proportions of total emissions increasing from 57% in 2016 to 64% in 2030 and 68% in 2040. The share of the second-largest NH 3 emission source, synthetic fertilizer application, will decrease from 36% in 2016 to 31% in 2030 and 27% in 2040. Among five other sources, the largest change occurred in waste disposal, increasing notably by 3.31 times from 2016 to 2040 owing to rapid urbanization. Under the Combined Options (CO) scenario, the total NH 3 emissions could be reduced by as much as 34% by 2030 and 50% by 2040 compared with the BAU scenario, which is attributed to livestock (24% in 2030, 37% in 2040) and synthetic fertilizer application (10% in 2030, 13% in 2040), respectively. This study can give a reliable estimation of anthropogenic NH 3 emission in the BTH region during 2020–2040 and provide a valuable reference for effective mitigation measures and control strategies for policy makers. Image 1 • The NH 3 emission trends from seven sectors were predicted during 2020–2040. • More efforts should be directed to reduce NH 3 emission from livestock source. • The NH 3 mitigation effects from various control measures till 2040 were compared. The total NH 3 emissions would increase in the future and livestock source had largest mitigation potential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A multi-GCM ensemble simulation and optimization approach is developed. • The developed approach can effectively tackle multiple uncertainties. • The impact of climate change on energy-economy-carbon nexus system is investigated. • Renewable energy will gradually replace fossil fuel for mitigating climate change. • There is a tradeoff between carbon dioxide emission and system cost. Climate change mitigation by reducing carbon dioxide emission becomes one of the major challenges for energy systems. In this study, a multi-GCM ensemble simulation and optimization approach is developed for analyzing the impact of climate change on China's energy-economy-carbon nexus system under multiple uncertainties through integrating techniques of multiple global climate models, support-vector-regression, Monte Carlo simulation, and interval chance-constrained programming within a general framework. The developed approach can tackle multiple uncertainties existed in global climate models, random carbon dioxide emission and complex optimization process. Results disclose that (i) the national electricity demand would grow around 58.6% in the next 30 years under climate change; (ii) for climate change mitigation and sustainable development, fossil fuel would be gradually replaced by renewable energy (i.e. the share of fossil fuel to the total energy supply decreasing 22.5% and the share of electricity generated from renewable energy increasing 27.0% by 2050); (iii) compared to the peak value in 2030, carbon dioxide emission would reduce 15.1% by 2050, most reduction from coal-fired power generation; (iv) there is a tradeoff between carbon dioxide emission and system cost as p-level decreases from 0.15 to 0.01 (i.e. carbon dioxide emission can reduce 1.9% with 3.7% of raised system cost). It is desired for China to adjust its current energy supply structure for reducing carbon emission and seeking a low-carbon developmental path. The most effective way is to eliminate some small coal-fired units. A number of wind-power and solar-power projects are expected to be implemented due to their abundant potential markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has established national CO 2 peak emission targets and launched a series of low-carbon pilot programs to tackle climate change. Research on regional peak CO 2 emission targets and the establishment of mitigation roadmaps based on local characteristics is fundamental for achieving the national goals. This study analyzed the peak CO 2 emission targets by applying the stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology (STIRPAT) and long-range energy alternatives planning system (LEAP) models to data from Yunnan province, China. This study also simulated and measured the effectiveness of the CO 2 abatement potential by decomposing the peak CO 2 emissions for 14 subscenarios. The results showed that peak emissions will reach 200 Mt CO 2 e in Yunnan over a prolonged period from 2024 to 2028, and differences in the social-economic stages will result in different peak emissions from various sectors. Our research also found notable differences between different mitigation effects. Promoting hydro power, saving energy in the steel manufacturing and chemical sectors, employing highly efficient combustion engines in vehicles, developing public transport, and conserving urban residential energy should be considered as short-term primary actions. Clean-energy vehicles and saving energy in public buildings should be considered in the long term. Therefore, this study can provide a suitable reference to policymakers and stakeholders for identifying the most effective policy measures and actions for different sectors in low-carbon pilot planning programs. Image 1 •The regional peak CO 2 emission targets and mitigation roadmaps are established in the paper.. •A synthesized model to evaluate peak CO 2 emission and establish long-term mitigation roadmap is developed. •The effectiveness of the CO 2 abatement potential is measured by decomposing the peak CO 2 emissions for 14 subscenarios. •The implementation of high effective mitigation actions must be given the highest priority. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]