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The processing of natural gas resources is a critical step for monetizing them. Its evaluation should deal with the volatility of prices of raw gas and natural gas liquids, the processing technology and the composition of the raw gas. This study combines different approaches – process engineering, probabilistic discounted cash flow (DCF), and market failure analysis – to evaluate the technical aspects, financial results and market barriers of natural gas processing. Two productive strategies are compared: fuels or petrochemicals. Brazil is used as a case study, since the country experienced a ramping production of associated rich gas from pre-salt basins and lacks the required gas processing capacity. Findings indicate that the processing plant designed with turboexpander was able to produce the required scale for the fuel and the petrochemical markets. The Petrochemical Strategy reached a higher average net present value (US$ 2448 millions) compared to the Fuel Strategy (US$ 2006 millions) in a 30-years DCF analysis, at a higher standard deviation, however. This highlights the importance of performing the stochastic NPV to deal with price volatilities. The Petrochemical Strategy is also challenged by market failures found in Brazil, while the Fuel Strategy has social and infrastructure advantages in a stablished domestic market. [Display omitted] • Two strategies for monetizing rich natural gas resources are compared: fuels and petrochemicals. • The method combines process engineering, probabilistic discounted cash flow and market analyses. • Both strategies proved to be feasible but petrochemicals reached a higher, although riskier, NPV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The state of São Paulo offers ten potential scenarios for the establishment of biorefineries. • Eucalyptus residues are a promising feedstock that produces 71,000 tons of bio-oil/year. • The minimum selling price of bio-oil varies according to plant capacities between from $11.6 to 19.3/GJ. • The minimum selling price of bio-oil is particularly sensitive to plant capacity and yield. • Co-processing bio-oil with vacuum gasoil can contribute 3.4 % of total "green fuel" in Brazil. Forestry residue is potentially useful for obtaining bio-oil and its by-products (biochar, syngas, and acid-rich aqueous extract) via fast pyrolysis. As such, we carried out a techno-economic analysis of both the production of bio-oil from Eucalyptus grandis residues (ER) and their availability in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. Discounted cash flow was used to calculate the minimum selling price (MSP) of bio-oil. Georeferencing identified the location of 20 Eucalyptus plantations, ten of which were selected due to their better economic performance. These ten plantations were potentially able to produce 59 million L/year of bio-oil. The economic analysis of the future biorefineries showed that an MSP of 11.6–19.3 $ (US)/GJ could support the processing of 60,000–5,000 tons/year of ER. A simulation of a large biorefinery revealed a capital investment (CAPEX) of around 6 M$ (US), reaching an operating expenditure peak of approximately 3 M$/year. The sensitivity analysis identified that plant capacity had the most significant impact on MSP, while the by-products (acid extract and biochar) lowered this by 22 %. The large biorefinery simulated using the Monte Carlo method had an 80 % chance of reaching a net present value (NPV) > 0, and an 80 % probability of reaching an internal rate of return (IRR) > 10 %. This study demonstrated that the production of bio-oils by the ten simulated centralized biorefineries is economically viable based on the NPV and IRR indicators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]