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The sequential rollout of diverse climate policies by national and local governing bodies has sparked a series of concerns regarding their efficacy and long-term impact. These policies function either as constraints or incentives within the carbon market eco-trading system. This study aims to bridge gaps in quantitative analysis of climate policy interactions by employing the Stackelberg game model to explore various policy mix and their impacts on both national and regional conditions. It explored the effects of seven types of policy packages (including reduction targets, free allowance allocations, guideline prices, and their mixed scenarios) on regional and national economic growth and decarbonization targets. Moreover, fine-grained example analyses based on China's carbon markets were used to capture these win-win signals. The results show that: (1) when accounting for regional disparities, a waterbed effect emerges, implying that no scenario can simultaneously achieve both accelerated net profit growth and significant emission reductions across all regions. (2) Interactions among climate policies may yield strengthening, overlapping, or weakening effects compared to the business- as -usual scenario. However, it is crucial to note that these effects typically exhibit an inverse relationship between net profit growth and emission reductions. (3) Carbon trading prices act as public signals that assist policymakers in determining the Stackelberg-Nash equilibrium points to pursue optimized net profits under emission constraints. Hence, policymakers are encouraged to embrace comprehensive, sustainable solutions, ensuring ongoing monitoring and timely policy adaptations that strike a balance between economic growth and emission reduction regarding regional disparities. • Climate policies interact, causing strengthening, overlapping, or weakening effects. • Carbon trading prices play as public signals in the process behind the game. • Total net profit growth entails emission increases or exacerbating regional inequality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Emission offshoring does not account for emission reductions in advanced economies. • Most advanced economies onshore more carbon emissions than they offshore emissions. • The USA net offshores emissions while China net onshores emissions. • Per-capita income does not predict which country specializes in green products. International trade and emission offshoring can reduce a country's domestic carbon dioxide emissions, helping it to reach emission reduction targets set under the prevailing territorial climate policy frameworks. We ask what is the net contribution of trade to national production-based emissions. Existing metrics (consumption-based emissions and the technology-adjusted balance of emissions embodied in trade) do not answer this question. Based on global multi-regional input-output tables and the domestic technology assumption, we calculate net emission onshoring as the difference between the emissions embodied in gross exports (onshoring) and the emissions avoided by gross imports (offshoring) for 43 countries between 2000–2014. We find that the USA offshores emissions and China onshores emissions; the aggregate trade balance explains this result while the trade composition plays a negligible role in either country. In general there is no cross-country relationship between net offshoring and per-capita income, and neither one between trade specialization in emission-intensive products and per-capita income. The developed countries' absolute decoupling of economic growth and production-based emissions since 2000 is "genuine" in the sense that it reflects domestic economic developments and is not owed to emission offshoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the effects derived from the application of local policies and measures on the update of the circulating vehicle fleet of the city of Madrid in terms of greenhouse gases and urban pollutants emissions. The identification of said effects has been possible thanks to the use of Vehicle Fleet Characterization Studies (VFCS), which have been applied to Madrid for the last 10 years. It explores the evolution of several indicators, such as fleet age or urban emissions, through the analysis of the results obtained in the VFCS performed in 2013, 2017 and 2022. These studies help decisively in the evaluation of traffic emissions, thus being a compelling tool in the elaboration of the urban inventories. They constitute a cornerstone in the assessment of the city environmental issues and the decision-making process to reduce the environmental impact and minimize transport-related problems. The results show that the renovation of the fleet has diminished the emission of nitrogen oxides and particulate matter, improving the air quality. However, the emissions of carbon dioxide stay almost unaffected, which suggests that the climate change policies should be oriented towards the decarbonization of the road traffic, mainly by switching to electric vehicles or low-carbon fuels. [Display omitted] • Vehicle fleet characterization as a useful analysis to develop local policies • Analyzing effects of local environmental policies or designing new ones • Emissions reduction: 42 % for NO x , 48 % for PM 2.5 and 8 % for CO 2 (average fleet) • Hybrids and low-emitting fuels have increased its presence in a combined 16 % • Air quality has greatly improved, but the impacts on climate change are still high [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of command-and-control target policies for climate governance is crucial in achieving China's "dual carbon" goals. We investigate the impact of multi-target policy on county-level carbon emissions, using the generalized difference-in-differences model for the gradual implementation at different phases of multiple policies. We find that the Carbon Intensity Reduction Target (CIRT) and Total Energy Consumption Target (TECT) policies promote carbon reduction, while the Energy Intensity Reduction Target (EIRT) policy has less reliable outcomes. In the eastern and central regions, the initial phase of carbon reduction is primarily propelled by the EIRT policy, subsequently transitioning to the dominant influence of the CIRT policy. In the later phase, carbon reduction in the eastern region is predominantly attributed to the CIRT policy, whereas in the central region, it results from the combined effects of the EIRT, CIRT, and TECT policies. In the western region, early policies have an insignificant impact on carbon reduction, and the later-phase effects shift from being primarily influenced by the EIRT to being predominantly influenced by the CIRT. Additionally, neglecting the impact of other policies with similar targets during the same period may lead to overestimation of the effects of EIRT and TECT and underestimation of the effect of CIRT. • Command-and-control target policies are crucial for China's "dual carbon" goals. • The effectiveness of climate policies varies by timing and region. • Carbon intensity reduction targets consistently reduce emissions. • Combining multiple policies effectively cuts carbon emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2022, Saudi Arabia's anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions amounted to 810 million tons of CO 2 e. The country has pledged to cut its emissions by 278 million tons of CO 2 e per year by 2030. This paper contributes a modeling view on the climate-related effects of various energy policies on the Saudi energy system. We use an energy system model designed to represent seven sectors in the Saudi economy. In addition to a baseline, which entails the continuation of current domestic policies, we look at a scenario that incorporates some of the plans announced by the Saudi government. We also examine the baseline scenario with a cap on total CO 2 emissions equal to those exhibited with the announced plans. The model then makes the necessary decisions to abate CO 2. We find that the energy system contributes 130 million tons of CO 2 e to the nationally determined contribution amount in 2030. Also, a non-prescriptive scenario that caps energy-system CO 2 emissions produces the same emissions reductions as the announced plans while lowering the present cost by 2030 by $70 billion. The corresponding implicit marginal abatement cost of CO 2 approaches 35 $/tonCO 2 by 2045. This cost would displace around half of crude and fuel oil use in the Saudi energy system. • Saudi Arabia plans to cut annual greenhouse gas emissions by 278 million tonsCO 2 e. • We use a multi-sector model built from the ground up for Saudi Arabia. • The energy system can contribute 130 million tons of CO 2 e in reductions in 2030. • We find a scenario that achieves GHG abatement at a lower cost than official plans. • The marginal value attributed to CO 2 approaches 35 $ per tonCO 2 by 2045. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate policy is urgently needed to reduce emissions, but must also be evaluated in regard to its impact on human quality of life. To identify policy approaches that are able to achieve effective mitigation together with high levels of well-being, multiple human needs must be taken into account. To this end, we present an agent-based model that is able to describe the interaction between various economic sectors on the supply-side and individuals with heterogeneous incomes and needs on the demand-side. Individuals make choices under both income and time constraints; the latter being needed for non-market activities and time-intensive forms of consumption such as low-carbon modes of transport. The following climate policy instruments are considered: a carbon tax, permit trading, direct regulation, and investments in low-carbon infrastructure. Impacts are analyzed in regard to three different types of mitigation: avoid, shift, and improve. Results show that to achieve emission reductions together with high levels of well-being, carbon pricing is best combined with effective improvements of low-carbon infrastructure; revenue recycling should be progressive; and unnecessary abatement costs should be avoided. A comparison is provided with traditional formulations of social welfare. • An agent-based model with multiple sectors and human needs is presented. • Carbon pricing with progressive revenue recycling can improve well-being outcomes. • Carbon pricing can be enhanced through investments in low-carbon infrastructure. • Windfall profits and unnecessary abatement costs should be avoided. • Our approach resembles traditional social welfare analysis with a CES function. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is recognized as an important tool for addressing residual emissions and achieving net-zero emission targets. While some have cautioned that a focus on CDR in policy processes may lead to delayed efforts to mitigate emissions, others have argued that such concerns are unwarranted. Nevertheless, the circumstances under which CDR could help or delay emissions mitigation in given contexts remain unclear. This paper explores the emerging discourse on CDR in Switzerland. We examined how the CDR community legitimizes CDR and limits its scope, and what the implications are for emissions mitigation. Switzerland is home to growing businesses in CDR and has pioneered the implementation of international offsetting projects under Article 6.2 of the Paris Agreement. We found that numerous promises help legitimize and attract interest in CDR. Actors use discursive strategies and rules to limit CDR and avoid disappointment in its contribution to climate mitigation. The idea that emission reduction should prevail over removal is promoted accordingly, which ironically helps legitimize the CDR idea yet dodges the question of how much removal is possible and for balancing which emissions. Superficial engagement with the issue is reinforced by the normalization of inflated promises and the sentiment that the mitigation deterrence rhetoric erodes trust in CDR. We argue that this can contribute to mitigation delays by evading the debate on what it is possible to remove and taking resources from alternative measures. We recommend a thorough discussion to examine the risks and the implementation of rules that minimize them. • Mitigation deterrence discourse leads to efforts to avoid substitution dynamics. • "Reductions first" legitimizes CDR without coordinating emission residuals. • Inflated promises of CDR may reduce resources for more realistic measures. • Attention to CDR dynamics is required to help achieve comprehensive decarbonization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the recently proposed concept of "design coalitions," this paper analyzes stakeholder participation in a subnational U.S. climate change mitigation policy redesign process. We demonstrate the utility of design coalitions for analyzing policy design processes, contending that it provides an opportunity to examine the understudied "secondary beliefs" of actors as described by the advocacy coalition framework. Our case study consists of an iterative, inductive content analysis of written input to the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative's 2016 policy redesign process. We developed a typology of 12 distinct stakeholder types who coalesced in 19 separate design coalitions, each espousing a stance on one of 11 elements of the policy design. These coalitions were dynamic, with radically different sets of stakeholder types participating simultaneously in many different design coalitions without coordination, usually for their own unique reasons. We observe that, although the updated policy reflected many stakeholder's stances, their influence was limited by their exclusion from the agenda-setting phase of this policy redesign process. In this critical era of climate mitigation policy proliferation, it is important to develop a better understanding of climate policy design coalitions and how they engage in and influence climate mitigation policy design processes. • This research expands knowledge of actor engagement in climate policy design processes. • We develop the concept of design coalitions & explore its relevance to climate policy. • Here, actors aligned in design coalitions based on the "secondary beliefs" of the ACF. • Each type of stakeholder participated in a unique set of design coalitions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sub-Saharan Africa is a region with a large population living without electricity. This study investigates the grid balancing role of bioenergy in a sub-Saharan Africa's fully renewable power sector to address the energy poverty challenge in the region, using Ghana as a case country. Two methods are employed: the bioenergy estimation method, for deriving Ghana's technical bioenergy potential, and the LUT model, for the power sector transition modelling. The Ghanaian bioenergy potential of 48.3 TWh is applied on the power sector using the LUT model to develop six alternative scenarios, emphasising on the role of bioenergy, greenhouse gas emissions costs, and climate change mitigation policies. The results of the Best Policy Scenario reveal that with an electrical efficiency of 37.2%, 18 TWh of electricity, which is 16.9% of Ghana's electricity demand by 2050, could be produced from bioenergy for grid balancing. Also, the levelised cost of electricity declines from 48.7 €/MW in 2015 to 36.9–46.6 €/MWh in 2050. Whereas the cost of electricity increases to 76.4 €/MWh in the Current Policy Scenario without greenhouse gas emissions costs. The results show the viability of a relatively cheap and bioenergy balanced sustainable renewable power system for the sub-Saharan African region. • The role of modern bioenergy is examined in renewable energy (RE) dominated power systems. • A comprehensive bioenergy potential assessment for the case of Ghana is presented. • Bioenergy provides flexibility in hybrid solar PV-battery dominated power systems. • Levelised cost of electricity for 100% RE ranges from 37 - 46.6 €/MWh in 2050. • Sustainable modern bioenergy contribution in power systems substantially reduces system costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following the Paris Agreement's climate targets and the modelling community's scenarios of how to reach them, carbon dioxide removal is gaining increasing importance in national climate policies. This is also the case in Denmark – considered by itself and others a climate frontrunner – where biochar is envisioned to cover 10% of the 2030 reduction goal. However, apart from research experiments and test sites, biochar is at the time of research not employed in Denmark, raising the question how it came to constitute a large part of the national goal. This paper explores how biochar, as a method for carbon removal, comes into being as a relevant solution in Danish climate policy, and what this means for emission reduction efforts. Through document analysis, participatory observation, field visits and semi-structured interviews, I employ the framework of the dramaturgical regime and analyse how biochar is enacted as a climate solution through policy documents, conferences, media and network meetings. Here the concept of enactment indicates that different people's actions are not overtly coordinated, and the effects of such actions are not necessarily fully intentional, but they are nevertheless political. I argue that through different scientific, administrative, political, and media practices, biochar is enacted as a viable climate solution that enables the continuation of current forms of production and consumption. As biochar likely substitutes for emission reductions and is in risk of failing to deliver the anticipated amount of carbon removals, the enactment of biochar as a climate solution in Danish climate policy possibly constitutes a case of mitigation deterrence. • Biochar is enacted as a relevant solution in Danish climate policy. • This occurs in policy documents, conferences, media and network meetings. • Enactments enable a continuation of current forms of production and consumption. • Including biochar in Danish climate policy is possibly a case of mitigation deterrence. • Enactments can show how mitigation deterrence can come about as an emergent effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies are rapidly evolving from renderings in climate models towards an explicit and essential component of climate policy-making. This has raised concerns that the expectations of future large-scale availability of CDR technologies may deter mitigation, i.e., delay or substitute emission reduction efforts. Here, we develop a conceptual approach to systematically study such mitigation deterrence effects in climate policy-making processes. The approach integrates literature on sociotechnical imaginaries and the cultural political economy of mitigation deterrence with historical-materialist policy analysis. It follows within-case process tracing to uncover whether and how expectations of CDR technologies either weaken 'conventional' mitigation targets in policy formulation or encourage policy designs which treat 'conventional' mitigation and CDR as equivalent. Using critical instances of contestation in the policy process, this approach also allows us to identify nascent constellations of actors and interests as well as emerging fault lines related to CDR technologies. Empirically, the paper focusses on the EU Sustainable Carbon Cycles Strategy and the current negotiations over an EU Carbon Removal Certification Framework. We show that even though it is too early to pin-point clear-cut instances of mitigation deterrence related to CDR technologies in EU climate policy-making, critical opportunities to prevent such effects have already been missed in both climate target formulation and policy design. • Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies are currently being integrated into EU climate policy. • This poses the risks of mitigation deterrence, i.e., reduced emission reduction efforts. • We developed a conceptual approach to systematically trace mitigation deterrence in climate policy-making. • Opportunities to forestall mitigation deterrence have already been missed in critical EU climate policy initiatives. • Separating targets and specifying the use of carbon removal credits could contribute to prevent mitigation deterrence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change poses an enormous challenge to countries across the world. News is a crucial channel to draw society's attention to this issue and strengthen climate governance initiatives, such as carbon emission reduction. The aim of this research was to investigate the effects of carbon-related news on carbon emissions and carbon transfer. First, we analyzed the topics of carbon-related news from media outlets such as ABC , CNN , and The Guardian from 2009 to 2019. Then, we calculated the carbon emissions from both production- and consumption-based perspectives and constructed the carbon transfer network of major countries around the world. Finally, we examined the direct and lag effects of carbon-related news attention and contents on carbon emissions and carbon transfer by using the extended population, affluence, and technology (STIRPAT) model as the analytical framework. The results showed the following. First, countries are paying increasing attention to carbon-related issues with the rise of global carbon emissions, and they mainly focus on the social aspects of carbon emissions. Second, there are differences in production- and consumption-based carbon emissions by country. The amount of embodied carbon transfer between countries has increased over time and the carbon transfer network has become tighter. Finally, carbon-related news has a positive impact on improving carbon emissions and carbon transfer worldwide. Different news topics have also shown varying effects on carbon emissions and carbon transfer. In summary, this study further revealed the impacts of carbon-related news on carbon emissions and transfer and accordingly provided policy implications in carbon emission reduction for the government. • The evolution of carbon-related news topics are analyzed. • The effects of carbon-related news on carbon emissions and carbon transfer are investigated. • Carbon-related news has a positive impact on improving carbon emissions and carbon transfer worldwide. • Different news topics have led to different effects on carbon emissions and carbon transfer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a demand-driven growth model is used to explore climate change scenarios faced by the South African economy. The focus is on key macroeconomic variables including employment, productivity, income distribution, trade, and fiscal balances. Results show that emission reduction alone will not put South Africa on a sustainable and equitable growth path. Expansionary macroeconomic policies are necessary. We show that, under sufficient global mitigation, expansionary fiscal and monetary policies lead to faster output and productivity growth, higher employment, and lower inequality. By contrast, macroeconomic tightening or "free riding" on global emission reduction lead to inferior outcomes, putting sustainable development out of reach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Combatting climate change has risen to the top of the international policy discourse. Effective governance necessitates the generation of concise information on the costs-effectiveness of policy instruments aimed at reducing atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) approach is a framework commonly used to summarise information of potential mitigation effort, and can help in identifying the most cost-effective managerial and technological GHG mitigation options. Agriculture offers key opportunities to mitigate GHG emissions and utilise carbon (C) sink potentials. Therefore, a number of countries have developed national agricultural MACCs in the last decade. Whilst these MACCs have undoubtedly been catalysers for the information exchange between science and policy, they have also accentuated a range of constraints and limitations. In response, each of the scientific teams developed solutions in an attempt to address one or more of these limitations. These solutions represent ‘lessons learned’ which are invaluable for the development of future MACCs. To consolidate and harness this knowledge that has heretofore been dispersed across countries, this paper reviews the engineering agricultural MACCs developed in European countries. We collate the state-of-the-art, review the lessons learnt, and provide a more coherent framework for countries or research groups embarking on a trajectory to develop an agricultural MACC that assesses mitigations both within the farm gate and to the wider bioeconomy. We highlight the contemporary methodological developments, specifically on 1) the emergence of stratified MACCs; 2) accounting for soil carbon sequestration 3) accounting for upstream and downstream emissions; 4) the development of comprehensive cost-calculations; 5) accounting for environmental co-effects and 6) uncertainty analyses. We subsequently discuss how the mitigation potential summarised by MACCs can be incentivised in practice and how this mitigation can be captured in national inventories. We conclude that the main purpose of engineering MACCs is not necessarily the accurate prediction of the total abatement potential and associated costs, but rather the provision of a coherent forum for the complex discussions surrounding agricultural GHG mitigation, and to visualise opportunities and low-hanging fruit in a single graphic and manuscript. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Promoting inclusive and sustainable economic and social development whilst simultaneously adapting to climate change impacts and mitigating greenhouse gas emissions – Climate Compatible Development (CCD) – requires coherent policy approaches that span multiple sectors. This paper develops and applies a qualitative content analysis to assess national sector policies of ten southern African countries to determine their approaches for water, agriculture, forestry and energy and their compatibility with the aims of the three dimensions of CCD (development, climate adaptation and climate mitigation). Results indicate that sector policies currently only partially support shifts towards CCD, with approaches that both complement and detract from CCD being prioritized by national governments. Agriculture offers the greatest number of potentially viable approaches capable of achieving the development, adaptation and mitigation aims inherent in CCD, while energy the least. National governments should focus on developing coherent, cross-sector approaches that deliver such potential triple wins in order to promote new forms of inclusive and sustainable economic and social development, whilst facilitating adaptation to climate change impacts and supporting mitigation activities. Doing so will also go a long way towards ensuring the progress needed for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Climate Agreement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abatement of Greenhouse gas emissions is the top concern of global climate change policy. On November 4, 2016, the day when the Paris Agreements took effect officially, the State Council of China issued the Work Plan for the Control of Greenhouse Gas Emissions during the 13th Five-Year Period as its national policy for climate change. An important regulation is the carbon dioxide emission performance for key power generation groups, i.e. carbon dioxide emissions for power supply within 550 g/kWh by 2020. The Top five state-owned generation groups (Top Five hereafter), namely China Huaneng Group, China Guodian Corporation, China Huadian Corporation, China Datang Corporation and State Power Investment Corporation (SPIC), produce more than 40% of electricity in China and hold critical role in the compliance to this new regulation. This paper estimates the CO 2 emissions performance of Top five by 2020 with best available data. We find that with the exception of SPIC the rest four can’t reach the target under their established clean energy development strategies. Carbon lock-in renders China’s power generation utilities unable to make timely adjustment in their development trajectory and reach the performance target within five years. The paper concludes with policy implications on how to better implement this regulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The European Green Deal aims to put the EU on track towards climate neutrality by 2050. One of the key elements is a more stringent greenhouse gas emission reduction target of 55% below 1990 levels by 2030. We analyse the socio-economic consequences of alternative policy pathways to reach that target, either relying more on regulatory standards, on carbon pricing, or a mix of both. We develop a modelling framework that captures macro-economic and sectoral impacts and closely aligns economic and energy system modelling. We further decompose aggregate labour market outcomes into skill and occupation types, and downscale representative household results to micro-level household data to evaluate the distributional effects across income groups with heterogeneous expenditure patterns. By combining models and datasets, our framework enables incorporating a high degree of technological detail while revealing socio-economic aspects of the transition that may go unnoticed in coarse, aggregate assessments. In particular, our results highlight the heterogeneous impacts of climate policy across sectors, worker skill types and income groups, which may require particular attention in climate policy design and corresponding complementary measures to ensure a fair transition to a low-carbon economy. • We assess different policy packages to achieve stricter EU 2030 climate targets. • A framework for climate policy assessment needs to be both broad and detailed. • We develop such a framework by linking energy models with economic models and data. • We downscale aggregate results for labour markets and household consumption. • Results illustrate model uncertainty and policy design potential to alter outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We investigate the link between investment in renewable energy technologies on environmental quality. • Our methodological approach utilises an interactive-fixed effects model to deal with endogeneity issues. • Our findings show that R&D investment in renewables has a significant positive effect on environmental quality. In this paper, we investigate the impact of public investment in R&D in renewable energy technologies on environmental quality using a spectrum of environmental emissions. We employ new and innovative panel data methods to address the existing econometric issues in estimating the effect of R&D on greenhouse gas emissions. Then, using data from advanced and emerging economies that span the period from 1980 to 2020, we find that R&D investment in renewable technologies has a significant positive effect on environmental quality by reducing a range of pollutants, including carbon dioxide, methane, and other pollutants. The results are robust to a series of sensitivity tests. The findings have important policy implications for climate change and various recent environmental initiatives, including the transition to net-zero emissions and sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Integrated assessment models have become the primary tools for comparing climate policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Such policies have often been identified by considering a planner who seeks to make optimal trade-offs between the costs of carbon abatement and the economic damages from climate change. The planning problem has been formalized as one of optimal control, the objective being to minimize the total costs of abatement and damages over a time horizon. Studying climate policy as a control problem presumes that a planner knows enough to make optimization feasible, but in practice, physical and economic uncertainties abound. Manski, Sanstad, and DeCanio (2021) proposed and studied use of the minimax-regret (MMR) decision criterion to account for deep uncertainty in climate modeling. Here we study choice of climate policy that minimizes maximum regret with deep uncertainty regarding both the correct climate model and the appropriate time discount rate to use in intergenerational assessment of policy consequences. The analysis considers a range of discount rates to express both empirical and normative uncertainty about the appropriate magnitude of this parameter. The findings are novel and informative. The MMR analysis points to use of a relatively low discount rate of 0.02 for climate policy. The MMR decision rule keeps the maximum future temperature increase below 2 °C above the 1900–09 level for most of the parameter values used to weight costs and damages. • We address deep uncertainty in climate policy modeling using the minimax regret (MMR) approach from formal decision theory. • Deep uncertainty arises because of uncertainties about the geophysical processes governing the climate and the future evolution of technology and the economy. • Additionally, "normative uncertainty" exists because of disagreement or lack of knowledge about the appropriate discount rate. • In our computational analysis, the MMR rule indicates that climate policy should act as if the discount rate were in the neighborhood of 2% per annum. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of internal carbon prices (ICPs) is a practice by which companies voluntarily attach a hypothetical cost to their carbon emissions to help prioritize low-carbon investment projects. We find that ICP use is driven by external carbon constraints and by firms' exposure to formal carbon pricing systems, next to various firm and society characteristics. The size of the gap between countries' actual and intended emissions alone, without a translation into stringent climate policies, does not play a role. These findings inform policymakers and investors about when and why firms account for future carbon constraints internally. A key societal risk is that corporate investments are not sufficiently directed at a future low-carbon economy. Stringent climate policies that provide predictable pathways appear to help firms mitigate the misalignment of their investments by using ICPs and thereby contribute to a less erratic and less expensive transition of the energy system. • We study how the use and the level of internal carbon prices relates to carbon constraints and cost uncertainty. • We use exposure to pricing systems and the carbon emission reduction rate implied by policies to assess constraints. • We find that climate policy stringency increases the likelihood of adopting internal carbon prices. • Firms use internal carbon prices to bring forward low-carbon investments in anticipation of future costs. • Stringent climate policies and explicit pricing systems provide pathways for investment in low-carbon technologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Finance has become a crucial agenda in climate change negotiations in recent years. Meanwhile, multilateral negotiations on climate change as a whole are making meager progress, and increasingly observed are activities by national governments and transnational non-state actors. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate how investment towards low-carbon development could be materialized in Asia. A thorough review of current financial assistance for developing countries in Asia was conducted, and the amount of funding proved to be relatively modest to achieve the aim. We then examined financial policy instruments that could be implemented in the region. We estimated that USD125–149 billion per year would be needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the region by 2035. We also estimated that more than a half of this amount of funding could be achieved by public sector if several key policy instruments were agreed upon and enacted at regional and national levels in Asia. The role of private sector investment was also found to be indispensable in fulfilling all the long-term investment needs related to climate mitigation in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The MS and the PE models of agenda-setting can be combined to provide a holistic framework. • Policy windows or punctuations can last longer than both models anticipate. • Multiple complete couplings can take place within the opening of a policy window. • Agenda-setting models need to be revised to better account for party politics. For decades Norwegian climate policy has largely ignored the agricultural sector and focused on cost-effective emission reductions abroad. Yet in June 2020, Norway decided to ban the cultivation of peatlands to protect critical carbon sinks, and the issue became 'high politics'. We explain this radical policy change by combining an adapted version of the Multiple Streams framework with the Punctuated Equilibrium model of agenda-setting. We argue that the two models combined can provide a holistic explanatory framework, albeit with two revisions. Firstly, the window of opportunity or punctuation was in our case of a longer duration than both models anticipate. Secondly, we find that multiple complete couplings can take place within the opening of a policy (or more specifically, a decision) window. Both findings can be explained by party competition, thus underlining the need to revise agenda-setting models to better account for party politics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Policy makers worldwide are recently debating options to implement an effective climate policy that would put a cap on green house gas emissions. At the same time, investors are carefully evaluating the profitability of unconventional fossil fuels such as shale oil. To enhance the understanding of the impacts of a climate policy such as the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009, on oil shale production – and vice versa – we have customized an integrated assessment model, the Climate and Energy Assessment for Resiliency model for Unconventional Fossil Fuels to the U.S. Western Energy Corridor. Our analysis indicates that while the bill would increase the production cost of oil shale, the industry remains highly profitable in the longer-term, generating a potential profit of about $10 to $16 billion per year by 2040 at 2.5million barrels per day. These results suggest that the oil shale industry may comfortably face the enactment of a carbon policy, albeit with some caveats. Furthermore, while its potential economic impact on non-compliant industries may be severe, it would generate mounting profits for those achieving energy efficiency gains, thereby increasing the profitability of energy efficiency investments. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

[Display omitted] • A 4.5% increase in risk of dementia admission per 1°C increase above 17°C. • Emergency admissions may increase by 300% in 2040 under high emissions scenario. • Identifying people with dementia as high-risk population over summer is advocated. The impacts of a changing climate on current and future dementia burdens have not been widely explored. Time-series negative binomial regression analysis was used to assess acute associations between daily ambient temperature and counts of emergency admissions for dementia in each Government region of England, adjusting for season and day-of-week. Using the latest climate and dementia projections data, we then estimate future heat-related dementia burdens under a high emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5), where global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continue to rise, and a low emissions scenario (RCP2.6), where GHG emissions are sizeably reduced under a strong global mitigation policy. A raised risk associated with high temperatures was observed in all regions. Nationally, a 4.5% (95% Confidence interval (CI) 2.9%–6.1%) increase in risk of dementia admission was observed for every 1 °C increase in temperature above 17 °C associated with current climate. Under a high emissions scenario, heat-related admissions are projected to increase by almost 300% by 2040 compared to baseline levels. People living with dementia should be considered a high-risk group during hot weather. Our results support arguments for more stringent climate change mitigation policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development of renewable energy sources (RES) is considered to be a key instrument in addressing climate change. However, different RES have different potential and economic feasibility depending on country-specific conditions and mitigation ambitions. Understanding the relative importance of each RES could help policymakers focus their efforts on the most promising options. In this paper, we focus on Ukraine and explore the potential of biomass use under two mitigation scenarios – with 68% and 83% of greenhouse gas emissions reduction in 2050 relative to the 2010 level. First, using the TIMES-Ukraine energy system model, we show that biomass would play a major role in the future climate mitigation. If constrained at the baseline scenario level (due to political or other reasons), mitigation costs would be substantially higher – by 14.0–19.6 B € or 10.8–14.3 €/tCO 2 -eq., over the 2020–2050 time frame. Second, we quantify the importance of each biomass source. We show that woody biomass and bioliquids are the most important biofuels under the high-ambition climate scenario, while biowaste and bioliquids play a key role in the lower ambition pathway. Finally, we analyse the current policy environment in the context of future biomass development and conclude with a set of policy recommendations toward the realization of the biomass potential in Ukraine. We believe that findings presented in the paper would be relevant not only for supporting the decision-making process in Ukraine, but could also provide useful insights for other countries with similar conditions. • Two scenarios with 68% and 83% reduction in GHG emissions in 2050 relative to 2010. • Over 50% of all renewable energy is coming from biomass under both scenarios. • Bioenergy constraint increases mitigation costs by 10.8–14.3 EUR/tCO 2 or 2.4–3.2 times. • No significant impact of the biogas availability on the mitigation costs. • Constraining biowoods , bioliquids or biowaste increases costs by at least 35% each. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper criticizes the progress of the Brazilian government in preventing greenhouse gas emissions originating in urban areas. In 2009, Brazil approved its “National Policy on Climate Change”, complementing the 2008s National Plan on Climate Change (NPCC). In these documents, the federal government established measures to be undertaken in order to reduce greenhouse gases emissions, focusing on deforestation. However, the federal government should have regulated urban emissions, since the present Brazilian urbanization context, with big metropolises and the gradual migration of the population to the suburbs, represents a burden on climate change. With this new reality, transport and electricity use tend to grow, with the consequent increase in emissions. On the other hand, the municipalities are responsible for most city planning and transportation policies in Brazil. Pressed by their daily needs, they show little concern towards climate change and do not include the regulation of major sources of emissions among their priorities. Consequently, the municipalities are inefficient in preventing climate change. There are two main explanations for that: they do not have the know-how to prevent emissions; and they do not share this political agenda, since the impact of climate change is seldom acknowledged in the city where the emissions occur. Therefore, the central government has a role to play in regulating urban emissions. The study concludes that the National Plan and the National Policy, being federal documents, should have addressed urban emissions throughout the nation. Ultimately, they should be revised to guide city planners into planning greener cities. In order to succeed in this task, this legislation should not only require the reduction of emissions, but it should also indicate to the municipalities how they might achieve the reduction. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Low carbon cities. What, exactly, are we talking about? Are we talking about lifestyles, activities, or enterprises? Are we talking about individual or group voluntary behavior change or a policy framework that seeks to encourage behavior change by regulatory force? Faced with an enormous literature that mixes related topics like sustainable development/climate change/energy conservation/low carbon, it is not surprising to hear about local governments’ or planners’ “climate change initiatives”. This paper describes/reflects on how officials in Broward County, Florida, are dealing with issues of awareness, governance, measurement, and instruments for challenges arising from the combined threats of energy depletion and climate change. The overriding objective of this paper is to provide some pith for the discussion of planning for low carbon cities. To this end, we describe and reflect on the planning management responses of Broward County, Florida, USA – as an illustrative local government – in dealing with climate change challenges (CCC), energy conservation (EC) and greenhouse gas reduction (GHG). Both description and reflection are important as it is primarily the latter that provides the critical perspective necessary for assessing both potential and effect. The paper is organized into five sections. The first two sections address the “contextual” questions raised above: what is the level of knowledge and/or awareness among the collection of planners and/or local governments; and, what are/is appropriate responses of different levels of government. In the next section, we review overall levels of knowledge and awareness of basic science and policy dimensions, with particular attention paid to (a version of the) US planning profession. This is followed by a discussion of “theoretical” prescriptions for actions at different levels of government. The third and fourth sections focus on Broward County. The third section describes the county and presents a current measurement of its carbon footprint (at least at the level to which it can be measured). The fourth section describes the operational response of Broward County government. The final section returns to the original questions of knowledge and appropriate types of responses and argues that while the Broward response is generally effective in certain aspects, the current policy paradigm contains both strengths and weaknesses, which are generally outlined and discussed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper is motivated by the mismatch between emission of greenhouse gases and effective mitigation policies. Science now calls for every tool to be considered in order for radical changes to mitigate the situation more effectively. This paper considers Norway''s huge Sovereign Wealth Fund which, although withdrawing investment from firms causing severe environmental damage, does not categorize climate change as ‘severe environmental damage’. The main reason is a basis of overlapping consensus, which also hinders argumentation for this practice. Overlapping consensus is part of the broader theory “Justice as Fairness” as conceived by John Rawls. The consensus is with regard to having a socially just system. The word ‘overlapping’ refers to people having different reasons for supporting the system. However using overlapping consensus for investment-strategies represents an extension beyond its original intention, and moreover, removes mitigating climate change from the agenda. Removing the basis of overlapping consensus opens up scope for value-based discourse conceived by Habermas’ communicative action and discourse ethics. The immense severity of climate change demands value-based and substantial arguments from powerful sovereign wealth funds, to consider the acceptability of their practice. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Proposals being considered by the U.S. Congress would establish a cap-and-trade system to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions approximately 2% annually through 2050. Past cap-and-trade policies for other pollutants have distributed allowances free to the regulated companies, leaving consumers uncompensated for passed-through costs needed to achieve the required reductions. Social equity concerns were not a major issue because the total costs were relatively small. However, Americans currently spend about $1 trillion/year on energy, directly and indirectly via the goods and services they consume. If a cap on carbon emissions results in significant increases in energy prices, social equity concerns could quickly dominate the debate over climate policy. This paper confirms earlier studies that a traditional cap-and-trade policy is regressive and would cause the cost of reducing GHG emissions to fall disproportionately on low income households. This paper explores ways to ameliorate those effects, using highly disaggregated data available on consumer expenditures and energy-input¿output analyses of the U.S. economy. Emissions are estimated based on direct and embodied energy use at the household level. Social equity concerns are taken into account and the consequences of cap-and-trade policies are assessed by quantifying the extent to which the expenditure patterns of the poor are significantly more energy intensive than those of the rich. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

We analyse Japanese newspaper coverage of global warming from January 1998 to July 2007 and how public opinion during parts of that period were influenced by newspaper coverage. We show that a dramatic increase in newspaper coverage of global warming from January 2007 correlated with an increase in public concern for the issue. Before January 2007, we find that coverage of global warming had an immediate but short-term influence on public concern. With such transitory high levels of media coverage we suggest that for more effective communication of climate change, strategies aimed at maintaining mass-media coverage of global warming are required. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• We modelled prospective life cycle impacts of aluminum production sector up to 2100. • SSP narratives are leveraged to model technology penetration and grid mix evolution. • We forecast global carbon intensities from 8.6 to 18.0 kg CO 2 eq/kg as baseline. • Majority of improvements result from policy in the energy sector. • Absolute sector-wide CO 2 reduction is realistic with aggressive policy efforts. Aluminium is an energy intensive material with an environmental footprint strongly dependent on the electricity mix consumed by the smelting process. This study models prospective environmental impacts of primary aluminium production according to different integrated assessment modeling scenarios building on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their climate change mitigation scenarios. Results project a global average carbon intensity ranging between 8.6 and 18.0 kg CO 2 eq/kg in 2100, compared to 18.3 kg CO 2 eq/kg at present, that could be further reduced under mitigation scenarios. Co-benefits with other environmental indicators are observed. Scaling aluminium production impacts to the global demand shows total emission between 1250 and 1590 Gt CO 2 eq for baseline scenarios by 2050 while absolute decoupling is only achievable with stringent climate policy changing drastically the electricity mix. Achieving larger emission reductions will require circular strategies that go beyond primary material production itself and involve other stakeholders along the aluminium value chain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article reviews climate change mitigation policies implemented in five major emitting economies: China, the European Union, India, Japan and the United States. It analyses their historical performance in terms of energy system and greenhouse gas emissions indicators. In cases where policies aim to reduce future emissions, their target performance levels are assessed. The review centres on the sectors of electricity generation, passenger vehicles, freight transport, forestry, industry, buildings, agriculture, and oil and gas production. Most focus countries have implemented successful policies for renewable energy, fuel efficiency, electrification of passenger vehicles, and forestry. For other sectors, information is limited or very heterogeneous (e.g. buildings, appliances, agriculture) or there are few comprehensive policies in place (e.g. industry). The article further presents an explorative emissions scenario developed under the assumption that all countries will replicate both the observed trends in sector-level indicators and the trends that policies for future emissions reductions aspire to achieve. It shows that the global replication of sector progress would reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 by about 20% compared to a current policies scenario. All countries analysed would overachieve the emissions reduction targets in their post-2020 climate targets. However, the resulting reduction in global emissions by 2030 would still not be sufficient to keep the world on track for a global cost-effective pathway that keeps temperature increase below 2°C. The findings of this study emphasise the need for transformative policies to keep the Paris Agreement temperature limit within reach. • China, the EU, Japan, India and the USA have effective policies for renewable energy, passenger vehicles, and forestry. • Other sectors are lagging behind in climate change mitigation. • Global replication of sector policies would reduce emissions by 20% in 2030. • This would, however, not close the emissions gap in 2030. • Implied emissions reductions go beyond the Nationally Determined Contributions for all economies analysed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Most effective measures are associated to the reduction of deforestation. • Most effective policy instrument would be a fee for deforestation. • Experts emphasized efficiency and legitimacy of policy instruments. • More attention should be paid to the vertical coherence of policy instruments. The land use sector offers government the means to contribute to the achievement of climate change mitigation targets. The aim of this study was to identify the most important policy instruments for supporting climate change mitigation efforts in the land-use sector in Finland and increase understanding on the performance of these instruments. This was done by analysing experts' views on the most effective policy instruments related to climate change mitigation in agricultural and urban land use in Finland and identifying the criteria that experts use when evaluating these instruments. The experts' views were obtained by interviews, a workshop and a survey, and the results were qualitatively and quantitatively analysed. The experts emphasized the effectiveness of economic policy instruments in the promotion of practical measures for climate change mitigation. According to the experts, the most effective policy instrument for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the land use sector would be a fee for deforestation. However, based on the analyses using four other evaluation criteria (efficiency, legality, democracy, legitimacy), economic policy instruments imply greater challenges than regulatory or informational policy instruments. Furthermore, based on the results, the coherence of economic policy instruments, i.e. to what extent they have synergies in achieving different policy objectives, needs to be carefully examined in the planning phase. In particular, more attention should be paid to the analysis of relationship across different scales of governance when designing new policy instruments for climate change mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]