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Big-data mining approaches based on Artificial Intelligence models can help forecast biodiversity changes before they happen. These approaches can predict macroscopic species distribution patterns and trends that can inform preventive measures to avoid the loss of ecosystem functions and services. They can, therefore, help study and mitigate climate change implications on biodiversity conservation in fragile ecosystems. Wetlands are particularly fragile ecosystems where climate change poses severe risks and has dramatically reduced their size over the past century, with profound consequences on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Through big-data mining approaches, we can predict future wetland biodiversity trends in the context of climate change. This paper proposes such predictive analysis for a specific wetland: The Massaciuccoli Lake basin in Tuscany, Italy. This basin is a critical tourist attraction due to its rich biodiversity, making it an area of interest for citizens, tourists, and scientists. However, the region's suitability for native and non-native species is at risk due to climate and land-use change. Using machine-learning models, we predict the potential effects of climate change on animal spatial distribution in the basin under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The results suggest that habitat suitability has generally improved from 1950 to today, presumably owing to the targeted conservation strategies adopted in the area, but climate change will severely reduce bird biodiversity by 2050 while favouring several insect species' proliferation and other species' habitat change, even under a medium-emission scenario. This will lead to significant changes in the basin's biodiversity. Our methodology is adaptable to other wetland basins, being fully based on open data and models. The spatially explicit modelling used in this research provides valuable information for policymakers and spatial planners, complementing traditional biodiversity trend analyses. [Display omitted] • Bayesian Open Science ecological niche models for 180 species in an Italian wetland • Environmental change in the last 70 years has benefited animal biodiversity • Climate change will disadvantage birds even under medium greenhouse gas emission • Climate change will alter other species' richness and habitat distribution [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current paper presents the development and testing of a multi-step methodology which integrates remotely sensed and ancillary data to estimate olive (Olea europaea L.) fruit yield in Tuscany (Central Italy). The processing of very high resolution (Ikonos) and high resolution (Landsat ETM+) images provides a map of olive tree canopy cover fraction for all Tuscany olive yards, which is used to extract olive tree NDVI values from MODIS imagery. The combination of these values with standard meteorological data within a modified parametric model (C-Fix) enables the prediction of daily olive tree gross primary production (GPP) for ten years (2000–2009). These GPP estimates are then joint to the respiration estimates of a bio-geochemical model (BIOME-BGC) to simulate olive tree net primary production (NPP). The NPP accumulated over proper periods of the ten growing seasons is finally converted into olive fruit yield, whose accuracy is assessed through comparison with provincial statistics. The methodology is only partly capable of capturing spatial and temporal olive fruit yield variability at province level, but can accurately reproduce inter-year yield variation over the entire region. The paper concludes with a discussion of the results achieved and with considerations on the research prospects. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Organic waste represents an opportunity and a challenge for policy decision makers and lately the attention has been focusing on community composting practices identifying the environmental and/or economic aspects. Evidence of citizens' attitudes and preferences is scarce, and this paper aims to fill this gap. The results of a contingent valuation survey in three councils of the Province of Siena, Tuscany (Italy) are reported along with an extended cost-benefit analysis. Results echo previous findings that GHGs emissions and money-saving for all municipalities are positive and encouraging; moreover, our study proves that citizens are keen to switch to the community recycling composter system. Citizens present heterogeneous preferences and accordingly to the current waste management system they might need a small financial compensation to switch in favour of the local community system. [Display omitted] • The paper evaluates environmental and economic sustainability of a community composting system by Contingent Valuation Method. • 92% of citizens are willing to participate in local community recycling of organic waste with minimal monetary compensation. • GHGs accounting and CBA results endorse the community recycling composter as a promising opportunity to reduce waste and recycle resources. • Cost-Benefit Analysis shows a net positive revenue for the community compost system. • Results support a switch towards local recycling facilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we analyse the effects of tourists' demand on the economic system of Tuscany using a multiplier model based on the (64 x 64) regional Social Accounting Matrix 2011. To this end, after identifying the exogenous and endogenous accounts (variables), we obtain endogenous account coefficients and impact multipliers. Evidence exists that tourism activity is well integrated into the regional economic system. Moreover, this activity has a remarkable impact on food production, value added, and households' expenditure. A policy simulation shows that a positive shock in tourists’ expenditure results in an overall positive increase in demand for agriculture and industry products, as well as in an increase in regional value added, and institutional sector activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Industrial ecology is presented in the literature as both a policy tool and an academic theory. This paper discusses a voluntary certification scheme adopted by the regional government of Tuscany (Italy) as a policy tool to disseminate the concepts of industrial ecology. The approval of a regional regulation represents the first adoption in European environmental and industrial policies of a voluntary tool aimed at stimulating the creation and dissemination of eco-industrial parks. This new certification method is analysed by focusing on the prevention of pollution. The criteria required to obtain the qualification, and the roles and responsibilities of all the actors involved are outlined. Finally, the strengths and weaknesses of the certification scheme are highlighted and the Italian standard compared with the national standard issued in China by the State Environmental Protection Administration. The findings contribute to the discussion of policy measures aimed at disseminating the concepts of Industrial Ecology including a tool based on voluntary co-operation and third-party certifications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • DPSIR applied to beach contamination through data search and fieldwork. • Fieldwork allowed to gain insight into local pressures, state, and health impact of beach-stranded. • Main local responses: waste removal from drainage system and recycling of stranded material. • Local and regional efforts are required to build a systemic view of beach contamination. Beaches are affected by the accumulation of natural and anthropogenic material; however, this environmental issue has not yet been explored from a One Health perspective. In this paper, the conceptual framework of DPSIR (Drivers-Pressures-State-Impact-Response) was used to understand the beach-stranded material issue in a systemic way and a data-based classification for some environmental indicators was developed to support the DPSIR analysis. The model was applied to an Italian coastal municipality as a case study, through the collection of data from a variety of data sources: publicly accessible database, data from a stakeholders' network (i.e., coastal authority, solid waste company, sewerage company, drainage consortium), and fieldwork consisting in microbiological analysis of stranded material and underlying sand, visual census of macrolitter along beach and waterways. In the study area, solid wastes production was a high pressure (768 kg/capita/year), but in situ visual observations of floating wastes at the outlet of the canals revealed that the contribution of local waterways to marine litter was negligible, thus suggesting the effectiveness of the measures adopted along local waterways by the drainage consortium (i.e., grids at the drainage pumping stations). Nevertheless, very high quantity of anthropogenic wastes was counted during the beach litter surveys (603 items/100 m), probably as a result of coastal current pathway that transported material from major watercourses (>100 km2 drainage basin size; 23 items/h). On the contrary, local sewage production represented a very high pressure (>33,000 m3/km) that impacted on the microbiological quality of the stranded material with moderate to high level of fecal bacteria indicators detected in the beach cast. The underlying sand was affected by such contamination, with most of the sample within the provisional limit set by WHO for enterococci in beach sand (60 CFU/g) that was associated to a health risk of<5 % of gastroenteritis attributable to accidental ingestion of sand; nevertheless, some enterococci peak values (980 MPN/g) could be associated to a health risk for gastroenteritis>10 %. The beach-stranded material was collected without separating the sand, with annual quantity of 1,243 kg/m, that was processed in a dedicated facility allowing to recover up to 98 % of sand and biomass after the treatment, with moderate expenditure for the coastal municipality (22 €/m). Overall, this study allowed to better figure out the cause-effect relationships underlying the accumulation of stranded material along shoreline and the effectiveness of the management practices toward beach-stranded material. Therefore, the usage of the DPSIR framework as structuring model to understand the problem of stranded material could be useful for beach managers and administrators, and its adoption within beach management programs is worth for improving beach quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Functional richness, diversity and evenness are usually considered complementary facets of community structure. • Here we show that functional evenness fails to properly capture the regularity of species abundances in functional space. • We will thus introduce the notion of functional imbalance, an indicator of the strength of interaction between species abundances and their functional dissimilarities. • Functional diversity always increases with increasing functional imbalance. • Therefore, functional imbalance is a more appropriate indicator of this facet of community structure than functional evenness. It is generally assumed that functional richness, diversity and evenness are complementary and, taken together, describe different facets of the distribution of species and their abundances in functional space. However, although these three primary components of community structure are commonly accepted by most community ecologists, measures of functional evenness usually fail to properly capture the regularity of species abundances in functional space. In this paper we will use an underexplored decomposition of Rao's index of functional diversity to introduce the notion of functional imbalance, an indicator of the strength of interaction between species abundances and their functional dissimilarities. Functional diversity always increases with increasing functional imbalance. Therefore, functional imbalance seems a more appropriate indicator of this facet of community structure than functional evenness. A worked example aimed at evaluating the influence of grazing on plant community structure showed that all proposed measures of functional imbalance were able to highlight the main functional changes of a dry calcareous grassland in Tuscany (Italy) following grazing exclusion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This manuscript summarises the results of a project concerning the energy consumption of public buildings and utilities and the evaluation of the most effective and feasible ways to save energy in Certaldo, a small township in Tuscany with approximately 16,000 inhabitants. The energy analysis highlighted a specific partitioning of electric and thermal energy for final use. For example, more than 60% of the electricity consumption of the town is for street lighting, which is still uses obsolete and environmentally problematic lighting technologies, and more than 13% for lighting public schools. With respect to heat utilities, more than 60% of natural gas consumption is for heating public schools and 18% is for heating sport/athletic facilities. The partitioning of energy consumption introduced a list of requalification measures focused on specific areas: each area has an energy saving potential and specific feasible energy requalification technologies in addition to the possible introduction of suitable renewables. The selection of the proposed interventions was based on the results of model simulations, municipal urban regulations and prevailing trends resulting from a survey of municipalities that are the same size as Tuscany. The type and impact of these interventions were also in agreement with the trends found in different international contexts. In the final part of this paper, some instruments and considerations regarding the evaluation of the return on investment (ROI) for investments in energy bill reduction are presented. Although few data are available in the literature about actions to improve energy efficiency in the public sector of small municipalities, the comparison of energy consumption of Certaldo with that of bigger towns with similar climate conditions showed a reasonable proportionality to population and size of the urban area. Thus, the methodology and the examined solutions could be considered a representative case study and a starting point for municipalities with a similar size and number of inhabitants. Finally, a curve of profitability for investments in energy efficiency of the administration was constructed. It can be extended, at least in a first approximation, to similar cases. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Since carbon dioxide (CO2) is the major greenhouse gas emitted by human activities, it is necessary to assess its sources and sinks, simulating the complex dynamics of CO2 flows involved in the carbon balance. To understand the advantages of carbon models for the political and environmental management of a region, we model the carbon cycle of Siena Province, a fairly large area in Tuscany (central Italy). The model develops the socio-ecological processes that determine the anthropogenic emissions and removals of CO2 from 2006 to 2016. We also include sources of the powerful greenhouse gas methane (CH4), such as landfills, wastewater treatment, combustion of fossil fuels and livestock. We then estimate the carbon footprint of Siena Province and elaborate six scenarios of emission reduction. The dynamic model proposed in this paper provides a good quantitative estimation of variations in emissions of CO2 and CH4 on a local scale, quantifying present and future sources and sinks of carbon in the study area. The scenarios of emission reduction are useful for assessing regional management in time. Economic aspects are not considered in the scenarios of emission reduction, because while the economy influences the choice of solutions it does not affect the model results. Siena Province therefore has an instrument for setting guidelines for good management of the resources and natural capital it administers; the model improves as it is updated year by year. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this paper, the profiles of three artificial coarse-grained beaches located at Marina di Pisa (Tuscany, Italy) were monitored from April 2008 to May 2009 in order to define the response of the beaches to major storms that occurred during the study. Two beaches are similar, the third differs in length and in the level of protection, being less than half the length of the others and devoid of an offshore submerged breakwater. The work was achieved by means of accurate topographic surveys intended to reconstruct the beach profile from the backshore up to the foreshore-upper shoreface transition (step). The surveys were performed with an RTK-GPS instrument, which provided extremely precise recording of the beach. The most significant features of the beaches were tracked during each survey; in particular, the landward foot of the storm berm, the crest of the storm berm, the coastline, and the step crest were monitored. Five cross-shore transects were traced on each beach. Along these transects, any meaningful slope change was recorded to obtain accurate sections of the beach. The field datasets were processed with AutoCAD software to compare the beach profile evolution during the year-long research. The results showed a comparable evolution of the twin beaches: the resulting storm berm retreat of about 15 to 19m is a remarkable feature considering the coarse grain size and the offshore protection. Due to the absence of the breakwater, the third beach was characterized by even higher values of recession (over 20m), and showed hints of wave reflection-related processes after the huge, steep storm berm had been formed and grown after the high energy events. These processes were not as evident on the twin beaches. These results underline the different response of three similar protection schemes, and the importance that frequent monitoring of the beach morphology holds when it comes to coastal management issues. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• Sample of 13 Masonry Churches in Tuscany (Italy). • Territorial Seismic Risk Assessment. • Critical Insight into the Results obtained with expeditious approaches. Among heritage buildings, masonry churches are complex structures often characterized by an open plan layout with slender perimeter walls. Their vulnerability to earthquakes is frequently increased by the absence of adequate connections between the various parts of the structural complex, together with the presence of thrusting horizontal elements such as masonry vaults and timber roofs. In this paper, the vulnerability and the seismic risk of thirteen masonry churches located in Tuscany (Italy) have been analysed with simplified methods to establish a first screening of the risk of this heritage typology. The methods are that proposed by Lourenço and Roque in 2006 and the so-called first level of analysis (LA-1), introduced by the Italian code. For one of these churches, the Basilica of San Francesco in Arezzo, the analyses of second (LA-2) and third (LA-3) level have been also performed according to the same code. The results highlight the contribution of the simplified approaches to establish a first selection of the priorities for subsequent investigations and, if needed, proper interventions. Approximately one-half of the churches composing the sample have the normalized simplified indexes lower than one, indicating the need of further investigations. For the Basilica of San Francesco the results of LA-2 level of analysis confirm the conclusions obtained with the more simplified procedures, while a criticism is highlighted with the LA-3 approach when the N2 method is adopted in combination with a pushover methodology of analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]