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Displacement of fossil fuels by forest bioenergy can contribute to climate change mitigation by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, GHG savings are not realised until the avoided fossil emissions offset the loss of atmospheric carbon (C) that would have been sequestered if the biomass was not used for bioenergy (i.e. time to C sequestration parity). We estimated the potential for mitigating GHG emissions and the timing of these atmospheric benefits when substituting conventional natural gas (NG) with renewable natural gas (RNG) produced from different forestry feedstocks within three Canadian provinces, and assessed the uncertainty among these estimates. We calculated the GHG balance of RNG using the alternative fate of biomass and the use of NG as base-case scenarios. Immediate to long-term time to C sequestration parity was typically in the order of residues burned < mill residues < harvest residues decaying on site < salvaged trees. The potential GHG savings from using harvest and mill residues to produce RNG within the three provinces ranged from 52.4 to 77.8 Mt CO 2eq a−1. Sensitivity analyses suggest that time to C sequestration parity in the best-case scenarios relative to the baseline can be reduced up to 17 years by using harvest residues that decay rapidly (based on feedstock species, size and geographic region), and reduced up to 8 years by improving the efficiency of the thermochemical conversion process. These two considerations are key for ensuring significant GHG reductions from RNG use within a timescale that helps Canada meet its GHG mitigation targets. • Immediate GHG benefits for RNG produced with residues otherwise burned on site. • No short-term C sequestration parity time for RNG produced with forest residues. • C sequestration parity time >100 years for RNG produced with salvaged trees. • Potential net GHG savings of 52.4–77.8 Mt CO 2eq.year−1 for RNG use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ever-increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions worldwide make it quite challenging to meet country-specific Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) targets. Therefore, it is evident that the existing emissions abatement measures need to be taken a step further. Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes (ITMOs) are allowed in Article 6.2 of the Paris Agreement as a cooperative approach to achieving NDC goals. There is a potential to create ITMOs between Canada and China by replacing coal use in China with British Columbia (BC)'s liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply. Replacing coal with LNG in energy generation applications is a promising approach to mitigate emissions. With global and national pressures to reduce emissions, China has created a market for LNG imports to cater to its rising natural gas (NG) consumption due to the coal-to-gas source switching strategy. However, the terms under Article 6.2 requires generated ITMOs to ensure environmental integrity, support sustainable development goals, and have a robust accounting system. Therefore, the current study aims to quantify the life cycle environmental outcomes of generating ITMOs by exporting LNG from BC to Chinese end-users while integrating uncertainties and to provide policy recommendations in adherence with the requirements of Article 6.2. Different LNG export scenarios were generated in the study and environmental impacts of each scenario were assessed and compared using a life cycle assessment (LCA) framework developed by the authors. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were conducted to understand the impacts created by the data uncertainties in the final result. By replacing conventional coal with NG, approximately 40–45% and 26%–32% emissions reductions can be obtainable for Chinese textile and chemical industries, respectively. The highest emissions reduction of approximately 60% was observed when coal is replaced with NG for district heating. The life cycle emissions (LCE) quantification framework provided in the study provides stakeholders with a systematic approach to determine the total GHG emissions and emissions reduction potential of different LNG export scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]