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Globally, the diverse bacterial genus Vibrio is the most important group of bacterial pathogens found in marine and coastal waters. These bacteria can cause an array of human infections via direct exposure to seawater or through the consumption of seafoods grown and cultivated in coastal and estuarine settings. Crucially, we appear to be on the cusp of an alarming global increase in Vibrio disease. A worldwide increase in seafood consumption, the globalisation of the seafood trade, the more frequent use of coastal waters for recreational activities, and climate change all contribute to greatly increased human health risks associated with Vibrio bacteria. Coupled with a population that is increasingly susceptible to more serious infections, we are likely to see a marked increase in both reported cases and fatalities in the near future. In this Personal View, we discuss and frame this important and emerging public health issue, and provide various contemporary case studies to illustrate how the risk profiles of pathogenic Vibrio bacteria have transformed in the past two decades-particularly in response to changing climatological and meteorological drivers such as marine coastal warming and extreme weather events such as heatwaves and storms. We share various approaches to help better understand and manage risks associated with these bacteria, ranging from risk mitigation strategies to enhanced epidemiological monitoring and surveillance approaches., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests We declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: Infections caused by non-cholera Vibrio species have undergone a global expansion over the past few decades reaching new areas of the world that were previously considered adverse for these organisms. The geographical extent of the expansion has not been uniform, and some areas have shown a rapid increase in infections., Methods: We applied a new generation of models combining climate, population, and socioeconomic projections to map future scenarios of distribution and season suitability for pathogenic Vibrio. We used the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 framework. Three datasets were used: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's CM4.0 sea surface temperature and sea surface salinity; the coastline length dataset from the World Resources Institute; and Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project 2b annual global population data. Future projections were used up to the year 2100 and historical simulations from 1850 to 2014. We also project human population at risk under different shared socioeconomic pathways worldwide., Findings: Projections showed that coastal areas suitable for Vibrio could cover 38 000 km of new coastal areas by 2100 under the most unfavourable scenario with an expansion rate of season suitability in these regions of around 1 month every 30 years. Population at risk in suitable regions almost doubled from 1980 to 2020 (from 610 million to 1100 million under the scenario of medium challenges to mitigation and adaptation, shared socioeconomic pathway 2-4.5), although the increment will be more moderate in the future and stabilises after 2050 at 1300 million. Finally, we provide the first global estimate for Vibrio infections, with values around half a million of cases worldwide in 2020., Interpretation: Our projections anticipated an expansion of both the temporal and spatial disease burden for Vibrio infections, in particular at high latitudes of the northern hemisphere. However, the largest extent occurred from 1980 to 2020 and a more moderate increase is expected for the future. The most positive outcome is that the projections showed that Vibrio morbidity will remain relatively stable over the coming decades., Funding: NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory and NOAA OceanWatch, and by the University of Miami's Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests We declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)