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Geospatial climate change projections are critical for assessing climate change impacts and adaptations across a wide range of disciplines. Here we present monthly-based grids of climate change projections at a 2-km resolution covering Canada and the United States. These data products are based on outputs from the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and include projections for 13 General Circulation Models (GCMs), three Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP1 2.6, SSP2 4.5, and SSP5 8.5), four 30-year time periods (2011–2040, 2021–2050, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100), and a suite of climate variables, including monthly maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, climate moisture index, and various bioclimatic summaries. The products employ a delta downscaling method, which combines historical normal values at climate stations with broad-scale change projections (or deltas) from GCMs, followed by spatial interpolation using ANUSPLIN. Various quality control efforts, described herein, were undertaken to ensure that the final products provided reasonable estimates of future climate.

The Oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis (Handel), an important pest of horticultural crops, was studied at seven ecologically pertinent constant temperatures (15, 18, 22, 25, 29, 32, and 35 °C) under a photoperiod of 12:12 h L:D with a relative humidity of 60 ± 10 % to establish its temperature-based development. The study was incepted to devise temperature-driven phenology models and to analyze the abundance and distribution risk of B. dorsalis in India based on CMIP6 projections based on the model outcomes. Using the Insect Life Cycle Modelling software, B. dorsalis process-based phenophases models were linked with three global climate models (GCMs) and two climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). The results revealed that the lowest temperature threshold (LTT) for the development of the egg, larva, pupa, male, and female of B. dorsalis were 9.8, 6.9, 9.7, 14.2, and 14.3 °C, respectively. The maximum number of females per female (net reproductive rate, R0) (385.738 ± 7.62) and individuals per female (808.987 ± 13.409) (gross reproduction rate, GRR) per generation was succeeded at a constant temperature of 26 °C. At 29 °C, the maximum females per female (0.164 ± 0.0006 per day) (intrinsic rate of increase, rm) and lowest doubling time (Dt) (4.22 ± 0.02 days) was noted. Temperatures between 26 and 29 °C were optimum for B. dorsalis survival, growth, and multiplications, leading to less generation time and increased population potential. The distribution and abundance indices projected for current climates (1970–2000) successfully fit the identified dispersal areas of B. dorsalis in India. The projections under the changing climates in India indicated that increase in temperature in future climate for B. dorsalis will be less suitable (∼65 %) for very high establishments (0.8–1.0 establishment risk index) but an increase in abundance and damage potential (16.48–71.39 %) is expected based on increased activity, and generation risk indices. In conclusion, the predicted abundance and damage potential suggest that B. dorsalis India will pose a considerable risk to horticultural crops in future climate scenarios. The study results offer important baseline data for developing the strategies of B. dorsalis management and phytosanitary actions at particular, local, and national levels in India.

The distribution dynamics of invasive alien plants is the fundamental information for early detection and rapid response (EDRR) to these species in a new habitat. Based on the field survey data and online databases, the present research work utilized Maximum Entropy model (Maxent) to simulate the distribution dynamics of four invasive plants Ageratina adenophora (Spreng.) R. M. King et H. Rob., Alternanthera philoxeroides (Mart.) Griseb., Ambrosia artemisiifolia L. and Mikania micrantha Kunth in China, under current and future climate (2041–2060, 2061–2080, 2081–2100) in two shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs: SSP 245 and 585) of the newly released coupled model intercomparison project phase6 (CMIP6). All the suitable habitat areas of these plants will significantly expand in the future, but at different expansion levels. M. micrantha will have the largest distribution area (increase by 61–120%), while A. adenophora will expand by 7–33%, A. philoxeroides by 12–74%, and A. artemisiifolia by 8–27%, respectively. Additionally, the habitat centers of the four species will shift to north, i.e., A. philoxeroides, A. artemisiifolia and M. micrantha to northwest, and A. adenophora to northeast, except that the core distributions of A. adenophora and A. artemisiifolia will move to southwest under one certain environment scenario (SSP 245 in the period of 2061–2080). Compared to aspect index and slope topographical variables, the population density, temperature, and precipitation are found to be more important variables in describing the distribution of these plants. The dynamics of habitats of these four species and the correlating driver factors proposed in this work provide essential insights into future spatial management of invasive plants and biodiversity conservation in China, which is, not only human activities should be regulated and the migration of invasive species be reduced, but also the monitoring of high-risk areas should be strengthened in order to ensure effective EDRR.

In the Anthropocene, there is a strong interlinkage among water, energy, and the environment. The water-energy-environment nexus (WEEN) has been vigorously advocated as an emerging development paradigm and a global research agenda. Based on the nexus concept, a framework for the WEEN complex system simulation and risk assessment is developed. The three metropolitan areas of the city cluster along the middle reaches of the Yangtze River (CCMRYR) are taken as the objects. Regional policies are combined with generic shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) to form a localized SSPs suitable for the research region. The dynamic simulation of the WEEN complex system and the risk analysis are carried out with the combination of system dynamics models and copula functions. Results show that: There are obvious differences in water utilization, energy consumption, air pollutant emissions, and water pollutant emissions among the three metropolitan areas. The issue of high carbon intensity in the Wuhan Metropolitan Coordinating Region needs to be emphasized and solved from the perspective of optimizing the industrial structure. Adhering to current development patterns, there will be successive peaks in water utilization, energy consumption, and carbon emissions in Wuhan, Dongting Lake, and Poyang Lake Metropolitan Coordinating Region by 2030, leading to high synergy risks at the systemic level, with maximum values of 0.84, 0.85, 0.62, respectively. A development path based on conservation priorities indicates that future policymaking needs to prioritize a resource-saving and pollution-control development pattern directed by technological upgrading against the backdrop of scarce natural resource endowments. The localized SSPs are a beneficial extension that enriches the narrative of regional-scale SSPs. The evolutionary trajectories and risk assessments of WEEN complex systems under different localized SSPs provide a sweeping insight into the consequences of policy decisions, thus enabling policymakers to appraise policy rationality and implement appropriate corrective measures., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Unprecedented human induced changes to the climate system have already contributed to a variety of observed impacts to both ecosystems and populations. Decision-makers demand impact assessments at the regional-to-local scale to be able to plan and define effective climate action measures. Integrated socio-ecological assessments that properly consider system uncertainties require the use of prospective scenarios that project potential climate impacts, while accounting for sectoral exposure and adaptive capacity. Here we provide an integrated assessment of climate change to the whale watching sector by: 1) extending the European Shared Socio-economic Pathways (Eur-SSPs) and developing four whale watching SSP narratives (WW-SSPs) and 2) characterize each key element comprised in the WW-SSPs for the time period 2025-2055. We applied this approach in a case study for the Macaronesia region where we developed scenarios which integrate the socio-economic (WW-SSPs), climate (RCPs) and ecological (species' thermal suitability responses) dimensions of whale watching. These scenarios were used by local stakeholders to identify the level of preparedness of the whale watching sector. When confronted with scenarios that combine this ecological dimension with projected climate changes and the four different socioeconomic narratives, stakeholders assessed the whale watching sector in Macaronesia as being somewhat prepared for a Sustainable World and a Fossil Fuel Development World, but somewhat unprepared for a Rivalry World. No consensus was reached regarding the sector's preparedness level under an Inequality World scenario. Our study demonstrates the importance of considering multiple dimensions when assessing the potential challenges posed by climate change and provides a needed resource to help the whale watching sector in Macaronesia, and elsewhere, in its effort to devise efficient climate action policies and strategies., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Understanding the distribution of hyperaccumulators helps to implement more efficient phytoremediation strategies of contaminated sites, however, limited information is available. Here, we investigated the geographical distribution of the first-known arsenic-hyperaccumulator Pteris vittata in China and the key factors under two climate change scenarios (SSP 1-2.6 and SSP 5-8.5) at two time points (2030 and 2070). Species distribution model (MaxEnt) was applied to examine P. vittata distribution based on 399 samples from field surveys and existing specimen records. Further, among 23 environmental factors, 11 variables were used in the MaxEnt model, including temperature, precipitation, elevation, soil property, and UV-B radiation. The results show that P. vittata can grow in ~23% of the regions in China. Specifically, it is mainly distributed in 11 provinces of southern China, including Hainan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi, Fujian, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu. Besides, eastern Sichuan, and southern Henan, Shaanxi, and Anhui are suitable for P. vittata growth. Under two climate change scenarios, P. vittata distribution in China would decrease by ~5.76-7.46 × 10 4  km 2 in 2030 and ~3.22-4.68 × 10 4  km 2 in 2070, with southern Henan and most Jiangsu being unsuitable for P. vittata growth. Among the 11 environmental variables, the minimum temperature of coldest month (bio6) and temperature annual range (bio7) are the two key factors limiting P. vittata distribution. At bio6 <-5 °C and/or bio7 >33 °C, the regions are unsuitable for P. vittata growth. Based on the MaxEnt model, precipitation had limited effects, so P. vittata can probably survive under both dry and moist environments. This study helps guide phytoremediation of As-polluted soils using P. vittata and provides an example to evaluate habitat suitability of hyperaccumulators at international scales., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

The Indus River Basin faces severe water quality degradation because of nutrient enrichment from human activities. Excessive nutrients in tributaries are transported to the river mouth, causing coastal eutrophication. This situation may worsen in the future because of population growth, economic development, and climate change. This study aims at a better understanding of the magnitude and sources of current (2010) and future (2050) river export of total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) by the Indus River at the sub-basin scale. To do this, we implemented the MARINA 1.0 model (Model to Assess River Inputs of Nutrients to seAs). The model inputs for human activities (e.g., agriculture, land use) were mainly from the GLOBIOM (Global Biosphere Management Model) and EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Model) models. Model inputs for hydrology were from the Community WATer Model (CWATM). For 2050, three scenarios combining Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs 1, 2 and 3) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6 and 6.0) were selected. A novelty of this study is the sub-basin analysis of future N export by the Indus River for SSPs and RCPs. Result shows that river export of TDN by the Indus River will increase by a factor of 1.6-2 between 2010 and 2050 under the three scenarios. >90% of the dissolved N exported by the Indus River is from midstream sub-basins. Human waste is expected to be the major source, and contributes by 66-70% to river export of TDN in 2050 depending on the scenarios. Another important source is agriculture, which contributes by 21-29% to dissolved inorganic N export in 2050. Thus a combined reduction in both diffuse and point sources in the midstream sub-basins can be effective to reduce coastal water pollution by nutrients at the river mouth of Indus., (Copyright © 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)