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1. Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Author: Wang, Haidong, Liddell, Chelsea A, Coates, Matthew M, Mooney, Meghan D, Levitz, Carly E, Schumacher, Austin E, Apfel, Henry, Iannarone, Marissa, Phillips, Bryan, Lofgren, Katherine T, Sandar, Logan, Dorrington, Rob E, Rakovac, Ivo, Jacobs, Troy A, Liang, Xiaofeng, Zhou, Maigeng, Zhu, Jun, Yang, Gonghuan, Wang, Yanping, Liu, Shiwei, Li, Yichong, Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Abubakar, Ibrahim, Achoki, Tom, Adelekan, Ademola, Ademi, Zanfina, Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw, Allen, Peter J, AlMazroa, Mohammad AbdulAziz, Alvarez, Elena, Amankwaa, Adansi A, Amare, Azmeraw T, Ammar, Walid, Anwari, Palwasha, Cunningham, Solveig Argeseanu, Asad, Majed Masoud, Assadi, Reza, Banerjee, Amitava, Basu, Sanjay, Bedi, Neeraj, Bekele, Tolesa, Bell, Michelle L, Bhutta, Zulfiqar, Blore, Jed D, Basara, Berrak Bora, Boufous, Soufiane, Breitborde, Nicholas, Bruce, Nigel G, Bui, Linh Ngoc, Carapetis, Jonathan R, Cárdenas, Rosario, Carpenter, David O, Caso, Valeria, Castro, Ruben Estanislao, Catalá-Lopéz, Ferrán, Cavlin, Alanur, Che, Xuan, Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia, Chowdhury, Rajiv, Christophi, Costas A, Chuang, Ting-Wu, Cirillo, Massimo, da Costa Leite, Iuri, Courville, Karen J, Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, Davis, Adrian, Dayama, Anand, Deribe, Kebede, Dharmaratne, Samath D, Dherani, Mukesh K, Dilmen, Uğur, Ding, Eric L, Edmond, Karen M, Ermakov, Sergei Petrovich, Farzadfar, Farshad, Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Fijabi, Daniel Obadare, Foigt, Nataliya, Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, Garcia, Ana C, Geleijnse, Johanna M, Gessner, Bradford D, Goginashvili, Ketevan, Gona, Philimon, Goto, Atsushi, Gouda, Hebe N, Green, Mark A, Greenwell, Karen Fern, Gugnani, Harish Chander, Gupta, Rahul, Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi, Hammami, Mouhanad, Harb, Hilda L, Hay, Simon, Hedayati, Mohammad T, Hosgood, H Dean, Hoy, Damian G, Idrisov, Bulat T, Islami, Farhad, Ismayilova, Samaya, Jha, Vivekanand, Jiang, Guohong, Jonas, Jost B, Juel, Knud, Kabagambe, Edmond Kato, Kazi, Dhruv S, Kengne, Andre Pascal, Kereselidze, Maia, Khader, Yousef Saleh, Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan, Khang, Young-Ho, Kim, Daniel, Kinfu, Yohannes, Kinge, Jonas M, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kosen, Soewarta, Defo, Barthelemy Kuate, Kumar, G Anil, Kumar, Kaushalendra, Kumar, Ravi B, Lai, Taavi, Lan, Qing, Larsson, Anders, Lee, Jong-Tae, Leinsalu, Mall, Lim, Stephen S, Lipshultz, Steven E, Logroscino, Giancarlo, Lotufo, Paulo A, Lunevicius, Raimundas, Lyons, Ronan Anthony, Ma, Stefan, Mahdi, Abbas Ali, Marzan, Melvin Barrientos, Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq, Mazorodze, Tasara T, McGrath, John J, Memish, Ziad A, Mendoza, Walter, Mensah, George A, Meretoja, Atte, Miller, Ted R, Mills, Edward J, Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin, Mokdad, Ali H, Monasta, Lorenzo, Montico, Marcella, Moore, Ami R, Moschandreas, Joanna, Msemburi, William T, Mueller, Ulrich O, Muszynska, Magdalena M, Naghavi, Mohsen, Naidoo, Kovin S, Narayan, KM Venkat, Nejjari, Chakib, Ng, Marie, de Dieu Ngirabega, Jean, Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J, Nyakarahuka, Luke, Ohkubo, Takayoshi, Omer, Saad B, Caicedo, Angel J Paternina, Wyk, Victoria Pillay-van, Pope, Dan, Pourmalek, Farshad, Prabhakaran, Dorairaj, Rahman, Sajjad UR, Rana, Saleem M, Reilly, Robert Quentin, Rojas-Rueda, David, Ronfani, Luca, Rushton, Lesley, Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya, Salomon, Joshua A, Sampson, Uchechukwu, Santos, Itamar S, Sawhney, Monika, Schmidt, Jürgen C, Shakh-Nazarova, Marina, She, Jun, Sheikhbahaei, Sara, Shibuya, Kenji, Shin, Hwashin Hyun, Shishani, Kawkab, Shiue, Ivy, Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora, Singh, Jasvinder A, Skirbekk, Vegard, Sliwa, Karen, Soshnikov, Sergey S, Sposato, Luciano A, Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi, Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos, Tabb, Karen M, Talongwa, Roberto Tchio, Teixeira, Carolina Maria, Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman, Thomson, Alan J, Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L, Toyoshima, Hideaki, Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala, Uwaliraye, Parfait, Uzun, Selen Begüm, Vasankari, Tommi J, Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales, Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich, Vollset, Stein Emil, Waller, Stephen, Wan, Xia, Weichenthal, Scott, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Weintraub, Robert G, Westerman, Ronny, Wilkinson, James D, Williams, Hywel C, Yang, Yang C, Yentur, Gokalp Kadri, Yip, Paul, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Younis, Mustafa, Yu, Chuanhua, Jin, Kim Yun, El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa, Zhu, Shankuan, Vos, Theo, Lopez, Alan D, Murray, Christopher J L, Wang, Haidong, Liddell, Chelsea A, Coates, Matthew M, Mooney, Meghan D, Levitz, Carly E, Schumacher, Austin E, Apfel, Henry, Iannarone, Marissa, Phillips, Bryan, Lofgren, Katherine T, Sandar, Logan, Dorrington, Rob E, Rakovac, Ivo, Jacobs, Troy A, Liang, Xiaofeng, Zhou, Maigeng, Zhu, Jun, Yang, Gonghuan, Wang, Yanping, Liu, Shiwei, Li, Yichong, Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Abubakar, Ibrahim, Achoki, Tom, Adelekan, Ademola, Ademi, Zanfina, Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw, Allen, Peter J, AlMazroa, Mohammad AbdulAziz, Alvarez, Elena, Amankwaa, Adansi A, Amare, Azmeraw T, Ammar, Walid, Anwari, Palwasha, Cunningham, Solveig Argeseanu, Asad, Majed Masoud, Assadi, Reza, Banerjee, Amitava, Basu, Sanjay, Bedi, Neeraj, Bekele, Tolesa, Bell, Michelle L, Bhutta, Zulfiqar, Blore, Jed D, Basara, Berrak Bora, Boufous, Soufiane, Breitborde, Nicholas, Bruce, Nigel G, Bui, Linh Ngoc, Carapetis, Jonathan R, Cárdenas, Rosario, Carpenter, David O, Caso, Valeria, Castro, Ruben Estanislao, Catalá-Lopéz, Ferrán, Cavlin, Alanur, Che, Xuan, Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia, Chowdhury, Rajiv, Christophi, Costas A, Chuang, Ting-Wu, Cirillo, Massimo, da Costa Leite, Iuri, Courville, Karen J, Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, Davis, Adrian, Dayama, Anand, Deribe, Kebede, Dharmaratne, Samath D, Dherani, Mukesh K, Dilmen, Uğur, Ding, Eric L, Edmond, Karen M, Ermakov, Sergei Petrovich, Farzadfar, Farshad, Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Fijabi, Daniel Obadare, Foigt, Nataliya, Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, Garcia, Ana C, Geleijnse, Johanna M, Gessner, Bradford D, Goginashvili, Ketevan, Gona, Philimon, Goto, Atsushi, Gouda, Hebe N, Green, Mark A, Greenwell, Karen Fern, Gugnani, Harish Chander, Gupta, Rahul, Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi, Hammami, Mouhanad, Harb, Hilda L, Hay, Simon, Hedayati, Mohammad T, Hosgood, H Dean, Hoy, Damian G, Idrisov, Bulat T, Islami, Farhad, Ismayilova, Samaya, Jha, Vivekanand, Jiang, Guohong, Jonas, Jost B, Juel, Knud, Kabagambe, Edmond Kato, Kazi, Dhruv S, Kengne, Andre Pascal, Kereselidze, Maia, Khader, Yousef Saleh, Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan, Khang, Young-Ho, Kim, Daniel, Kinfu, Yohannes, Kinge, Jonas M, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kosen, Soewarta, Defo, Barthelemy Kuate, Kumar, G Anil, Kumar, Kaushalendra, Kumar, Ravi B, Lai, Taavi, Lan, Qing, Larsson, Anders, Lee, Jong-Tae, Leinsalu, Mall, Lim, Stephen S, Lipshultz, Steven E, Logroscino, Giancarlo, Lotufo, Paulo A, Lunevicius, Raimundas, Lyons, Ronan Anthony, Ma, Stefan, Mahdi, Abbas Ali, Marzan, Melvin Barrientos, Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq, Mazorodze, Tasara T, McGrath, John J, Memish, Ziad A, Mendoza, Walter, Mensah, George A, Meretoja, Atte, Miller, Ted R, Mills, Edward J, Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin, Mokdad, Ali H, Monasta, Lorenzo, Montico, Marcella, Moore, Ami R, Moschandreas, Joanna, Msemburi, William T, Mueller, Ulrich O, Muszynska, Magdalena M, Naghavi, Mohsen, Naidoo, Kovin S, Narayan, KM Venkat, Nejjari, Chakib, Ng, Marie, de Dieu Ngirabega, Jean, Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J, Nyakarahuka, Luke, Ohkubo, Takayoshi, Omer, Saad B, Caicedo, Angel J Paternina, Wyk, Victoria Pillay-van, Pope, Dan, Pourmalek, Farshad, Prabhakaran, Dorairaj, Rahman, Sajjad UR, Rana, Saleem M, Reilly, Robert Quentin, Rojas-Rueda, David, Ronfani, Luca, Rushton, Lesley, Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya, Salomon, Joshua A, Sampson, Uchechukwu, Santos, Itamar S, Sawhney, Monika, Schmidt, Jürgen C, Shakh-Nazarova, Marina, She, Jun, Sheikhbahaei, Sara, Shibuya, Kenji, Shin, Hwashin Hyun, Shishani, Kawkab, Shiue, Ivy, Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora, Singh, Jasvinder A, Skirbekk, Vegard, Sliwa, Karen, Soshnikov, Sergey S, Sposato, Luciano A, Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi, Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos, Tabb, Karen M, Talongwa, Roberto Tchio, Teixeira, Carolina Maria, Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman, Thomson, Alan J, Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L, Toyoshima, Hideaki, Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala, Uwaliraye, Parfait, Uzun, Selen Begüm, Vasankari, Tommi J, Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales, Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich, Vollset, Stein Emil, Waller, Stephen, Wan, Xia, Weichenthal, Scott, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Weintraub, Robert G, Westerman, Ronny, Wilkinson, James D, Williams, Hywel C, Yang, Yang C, Yentur, Gokalp Kadri, Yip, Paul, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Younis, Mustafa, Yu, Chuanhua, Jin, Kim Yun, El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa, Zhu, Shankuan, Vos, Theo, Lopez, Alan D, and Murray, Christopher J L
Abstract: Background Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success. Methods We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0–6 days), late neonatal (7–28 days), postneonatal (29–364 days), childhood (1–4 years), and under-5 (0–4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29 000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030. Findings We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0–6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1–18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6–177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8–2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from –6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000–13 than during 1990–2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6%
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2. Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Author: Wang, Haidong, Liddell, Chelsea A, Coates, Matthew M, Mooney, Meghan D, Levitz, Carly E, Schumacher, Austin E, Apfel, Henry, Iannarone, Marissa, Phillips, Bryan, Lofgren, Katherine T, Sandar, Logan, Dorrington, Rob E, Rakovac, Ivo, Jacobs, Troy A, Liang, Xiaofeng, Zhou, Maigeng, Zhu, Jun, Yang, Gonghuan, Wang, Yanping, Liu, Shiwei, Li, Yichong, Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Abubakar, Ibrahim, Achoki, Tom, Adelekan, Ademola, Ademi, Zanfina, Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw, Allen, Peter J, AlMazroa, Mohammad AbdulAziz, Alvarez, Elena, Amankwaa, Adansi A, Amare, Azmeraw T, Ammar, Walid, Anwari, Palwasha, Cunningham, Solveig Argeseanu, Asad, Majed Masoud, Assadi, Reza, Banerjee, Amitava, Basu, Sanjay, Bedi, Neeraj, Bekele, Tolesa, Bell, Michelle L, Bhutta, Zulfiqar, Blore, Jed D, Basara, Berrak Bora, Boufous, Soufiane, Breitborde, Nicholas, Bruce, Nigel G, Bui, Linh Ngoc, Carapetis, Jonathan R, Cárdenas, Rosario, Carpenter, David O, Caso, Valeria, Castro, Ruben Estanislao, Catalá-Lopéz, Ferrán, Cavlin, Alanur, Che, Xuan, Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia, Chowdhury, Rajiv, Christophi, Costas A, Chuang, Ting-Wu, Cirillo, Massimo, da Costa Leite, Iuri, Courville, Karen J, Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, Davis, Adrian, Dayama, Anand, Deribe, Kebede, Dharmaratne, Samath D, Dherani, Mukesh K, Dilmen, Uğur, Ding, Eric L, Edmond, Karen M, Ermakov, Sergei Petrovich, Farzadfar, Farshad, Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Fijabi, Daniel Obadare, Foigt, Nataliya, Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, Garcia, Ana C, Geleijnse, Johanna M, Gessner, Bradford D, Goginashvili, Ketevan, Gona, Philimon, Goto, Atsushi, Gouda, Hebe N, Green, Mark A, Greenwell, Karen Fern, Gugnani, Harish Chander, Gupta, Rahul, Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi, Hammami, Mouhanad, Harb, Hilda L, Hay, Simon, Hedayati, Mohammad T, Hosgood, H Dean, Hoy, Damian G, Idrisov, Bulat T, Islami, Farhad, Ismayilova, Samaya, Jha, Vivekanand, Jiang, Guohong, Jonas, Jost B, Juel, Knud, Kabagambe, Edmond Kato, Kazi, Dhruv S, Kengne, Andre Pascal, Kereselidze, Maia, Khader, Yousef Saleh, Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan, Khang, Young-Ho, Kim, Daniel, Kinfu, Yohannes, Kinge, Jonas M, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kosen, Soewarta, Defo, Barthelemy Kuate, Kumar, G Anil, Kumar, Kaushalendra, Kumar, Ravi B, Lai, Taavi, Lan, Qing, Larsson, Anders, Lee, Jong-Tae, Leinsalu, Mall, Lim, Stephen S, Lipshultz, Steven E, Logroscino, Giancarlo, Lotufo, Paulo A, Lunevicius, Raimundas, Lyons, Ronan Anthony, Ma, Stefan, Mahdi, Abbas Ali, Marzan, Melvin Barrientos, Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq, Mazorodze, Tasara T, McGrath, John J, Memish, Ziad A, Mendoza, Walter, Mensah, George A, Meretoja, Atte, Miller, Ted R, Mills, Edward J, Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin, Mokdad, Ali H, Monasta, Lorenzo, Montico, Marcella, Moore, Ami R, Moschandreas, Joanna, Msemburi, William T, Mueller, Ulrich O, Muszynska, Magdalena M, Naghavi, Mohsen, Naidoo, Kovin S, Narayan, KM Venkat, Nejjari, Chakib, Ng, Marie, de Dieu Ngirabega, Jean, Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J, Nyakarahuka, Luke, Ohkubo, Takayoshi, Omer, Saad B, Caicedo, Angel J Paternina, Wyk, Victoria Pillay-van, Pope, Dan, Pourmalek, Farshad, Prabhakaran, Dorairaj, Rahman, Sajjad UR, Rana, Saleem M, Reilly, Robert Quentin, Rojas-Rueda, David, Ronfani, Luca, Rushton, Lesley, Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya, Salomon, Joshua A, Sampson, Uchechukwu, Santos, Itamar S, Sawhney, Monika, Schmidt, Jürgen C, Shakh-Nazarova, Marina, She, Jun, Sheikhbahaei, Sara, Shibuya, Kenji, Shin, Hwashin Hyun, Shishani, Kawkab, Shiue, Ivy, Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora, Singh, Jasvinder A, Skirbekk, Vegard, Sliwa, Karen, Soshnikov, Sergey S, Sposato, Luciano A, Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi, Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos, Tabb, Karen M, Talongwa, Roberto Tchio, Teixeira, Carolina Maria, Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman, Thomson, Alan J, Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L, Toyoshima, Hideaki, Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala, Uwaliraye, Parfait, Uzun, Selen Begüm, Vasankari, Tommi J, Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales, Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich, Vollset, Stein Emil, Waller, Stephen, Wan, Xia, Weichenthal, Scott, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Weintraub, Robert G, Westerman, Ronny, Wilkinson, James D, Williams, Hywel C, Yang, Yang C, Yentur, Gokalp Kadri, Yip, Paul, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Younis, Mustafa, Yu, Chuanhua, Jin, Kim Yun, El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa, Zhu, Shankuan, Vos, Theo, Lopez, Alan D, Murray, Christopher J L, Wang, Haidong, Liddell, Chelsea A, Coates, Matthew M, Mooney, Meghan D, Levitz, Carly E, Schumacher, Austin E, Apfel, Henry, Iannarone, Marissa, Phillips, Bryan, Lofgren, Katherine T, Sandar, Logan, Dorrington, Rob E, Rakovac, Ivo, Jacobs, Troy A, Liang, Xiaofeng, Zhou, Maigeng, Zhu, Jun, Yang, Gonghuan, Wang, Yanping, Liu, Shiwei, Li, Yichong, Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Abubakar, Ibrahim, Achoki, Tom, Adelekan, Ademola, Ademi, Zanfina, Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw, Allen, Peter J, AlMazroa, Mohammad AbdulAziz, Alvarez, Elena, Amankwaa, Adansi A, Amare, Azmeraw T, Ammar, Walid, Anwari, Palwasha, Cunningham, Solveig Argeseanu, Asad, Majed Masoud, Assadi, Reza, Banerjee, Amitava, Basu, Sanjay, Bedi, Neeraj, Bekele, Tolesa, Bell, Michelle L, Bhutta, Zulfiqar, Blore, Jed D, Basara, Berrak Bora, Boufous, Soufiane, Breitborde, Nicholas, Bruce, Nigel G, Bui, Linh Ngoc, Carapetis, Jonathan R, Cárdenas, Rosario, Carpenter, David O, Caso, Valeria, Castro, Ruben Estanislao, Catalá-Lopéz, Ferrán, Cavlin, Alanur, Che, Xuan, Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia, Chowdhury, Rajiv, Christophi, Costas A, Chuang, Ting-Wu, Cirillo, Massimo, da Costa Leite, Iuri, Courville, Karen J, Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, Davis, Adrian, Dayama, Anand, Deribe, Kebede, Dharmaratne, Samath D, Dherani, Mukesh K, Dilmen, Uğur, Ding, Eric L, Edmond, Karen M, Ermakov, Sergei Petrovich, Farzadfar, Farshad, Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Fijabi, Daniel Obadare, Foigt, Nataliya, Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, Garcia, Ana C, Geleijnse, Johanna M, Gessner, Bradford D, Goginashvili, Ketevan, Gona, Philimon, Goto, Atsushi, Gouda, Hebe N, Green, Mark A, Greenwell, Karen Fern, Gugnani, Harish Chander, Gupta, Rahul, Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi, Hammami, Mouhanad, Harb, Hilda L, Hay, Simon, Hedayati, Mohammad T, Hosgood, H Dean, Hoy, Damian G, Idrisov, Bulat T, Islami, Farhad, Ismayilova, Samaya, Jha, Vivekanand, Jiang, Guohong, Jonas, Jost B, Juel, Knud, Kabagambe, Edmond Kato, Kazi, Dhruv S, Kengne, Andre Pascal, Kereselidze, Maia, Khader, Yousef Saleh, Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan, Khang, Young-Ho, Kim, Daniel, Kinfu, Yohannes, Kinge, Jonas M, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kosen, Soewarta, Defo, Barthelemy Kuate, Kumar, G Anil, Kumar, Kaushalendra, Kumar, Ravi B, Lai, Taavi, Lan, Qing, Larsson, Anders, Lee, Jong-Tae, Leinsalu, Mall, Lim, Stephen S, Lipshultz, Steven E, Logroscino, Giancarlo, Lotufo, Paulo A, Lunevicius, Raimundas, Lyons, Ronan Anthony, Ma, Stefan, Mahdi, Abbas Ali, Marzan, Melvin Barrientos, Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq, Mazorodze, Tasara T, McGrath, John J, Memish, Ziad A, Mendoza, Walter, Mensah, George A, Meretoja, Atte, Miller, Ted R, Mills, Edward J, Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin, Mokdad, Ali H, Monasta, Lorenzo, Montico, Marcella, Moore, Ami R, Moschandreas, Joanna, Msemburi, William T, Mueller, Ulrich O, Muszynska, Magdalena M, Naghavi, Mohsen, Naidoo, Kovin S, Narayan, KM Venkat, Nejjari, Chakib, Ng, Marie, de Dieu Ngirabega, Jean, Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J, Nyakarahuka, Luke, Ohkubo, Takayoshi, Omer, Saad B, Caicedo, Angel J Paternina, Wyk, Victoria Pillay-van, Pope, Dan, Pourmalek, Farshad, Prabhakaran, Dorairaj, Rahman, Sajjad UR, Rana, Saleem M, Reilly, Robert Quentin, Rojas-Rueda, David, Ronfani, Luca, Rushton, Lesley, Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya, Salomon, Joshua A, Sampson, Uchechukwu, Santos, Itamar S, Sawhney, Monika, Schmidt, Jürgen C, Shakh-Nazarova, Marina, She, Jun, Sheikhbahaei, Sara, Shibuya, Kenji, Shin, Hwashin Hyun, Shishani, Kawkab, Shiue, Ivy, Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora, Singh, Jasvinder A, Skirbekk, Vegard, Sliwa, Karen, Soshnikov, Sergey S, Sposato, Luciano A, Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi, Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos, Tabb, Karen M, Talongwa, Roberto Tchio, Teixeira, Carolina Maria, Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman, Thomson, Alan J, Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L, Toyoshima, Hideaki, Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala, Uwaliraye, Parfait, Uzun, Selen Begüm, Vasankari, Tommi J, Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales, Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich, Vollset, Stein Emil, Waller, Stephen, Wan, Xia, Weichenthal, Scott, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Weintraub, Robert G, Westerman, Ronny, Wilkinson, James D, Williams, Hywel C, Yang, Yang C, Yentur, Gokalp Kadri, Yip, Paul, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Younis, Mustafa, Yu, Chuanhua, Jin, Kim Yun, El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa, Zhu, Shankuan, Vos, Theo, Lopez, Alan D, and Murray, Christopher J L
Abstract: Background Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success. Methods We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0–6 days), late neonatal (7–28 days), postneonatal (29–364 days), childhood (1–4 years), and under-5 (0–4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29 000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030. Findings We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0–6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1–18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6–177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8–2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from –6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000–13 than during 1990–2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6%
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3. Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Author: Wang, Haidong, Liddell, Chelsea A, Coates, Matthew M, Mooney, Meghan D, Levitz, Carly E, Schumacher, Austin E, Apfel, Henry, Iannarone, Marissa, Phillips, Bryan, Lofgren, Katherine T, Sandar, Logan, Dorrington, Rob E, Rakovac, Ivo, Jacobs, Troy A, Liang, Xiaofeng, Zhou, Maigeng, Zhu, Jun, Yang, Gonghuan, Wang, Yanping, Liu, Shiwei, Li, Yichong, Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Abubakar, Ibrahim, Achoki, Tom, Adelekan, Ademola, Ademi, Zanfina, Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw, Allen, Peter J, AlMazroa, Mohammad AbdulAziz, Alvarez, Elena, Amankwaa, Adansi A, Amare, Azmeraw T, Ammar, Walid, Anwari, Palwasha, Cunningham, Solveig Argeseanu, Asad, Majed Masoud, Assadi, Reza, Banerjee, Amitava, Basu, Sanjay, Bedi, Neeraj, Bekele, Tolesa, Bell, Michelle L, Bhutta, Zulfiqar, Blore, Jed D, Basara, Berrak Bora, Boufous, Soufiane, Breitborde, Nicholas, Bruce, Nigel G, Bui, Linh Ngoc, Carapetis, Jonathan R, Cárdenas, Rosario, Carpenter, David O, Caso, Valeria, Castro, Ruben Estanislao, Catalá-Lopéz, Ferrán, Cavlin, Alanur, Che, Xuan, Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia, Chowdhury, Rajiv, Christophi, Costas A, Chuang, Ting-Wu, Cirillo, Massimo, da Costa Leite, Iuri, Courville, Karen J, Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, Davis, Adrian, Dayama, Anand, Deribe, Kebede, Dharmaratne, Samath D, Dherani, Mukesh K, Dilmen, Uğur, Ding, Eric L, Edmond, Karen M, Ermakov, Sergei Petrovich, Farzadfar, Farshad, Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Fijabi, Daniel Obadare, Foigt, Nataliya, Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, Garcia, Ana C, Geleijnse, Johanna M, Gessner, Bradford D, Goginashvili, Ketevan, Gona, Philimon, Goto, Atsushi, Gouda, Hebe N, Green, Mark A, Greenwell, Karen Fern, Gugnani, Harish Chander, Gupta, Rahul, Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi, Hammami, Mouhanad, Harb, Hilda L, Hay, Simon, Hedayati, Mohammad T, Hosgood, H Dean, Hoy, Damian G, Idrisov, Bulat T, Islami, Farhad, Ismayilova, Samaya, Jha, Vivekanand, Jiang, Guohong, Jonas, Jost B, Juel, Knud, Kabagambe, Edmond Kato, Kazi, Dhruv S, Kengne, Andre Pascal, Kereselidze, Maia, Khader, Yousef Saleh, Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan, Khang, Young-Ho, Kim, Daniel, Kinfu, Yohannes, Kinge, Jonas M, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kosen, Soewarta, Defo, Barthelemy Kuate, Kumar, G Anil, Kumar, Kaushalendra, Kumar, Ravi B, Lai, Taavi, Lan, Qing, Larsson, Anders, Lee, Jong-Tae, Leinsalu, Mall, Lim, Stephen S, Lipshultz, Steven E, Logroscino, Giancarlo, Lotufo, Paulo A, Lunevicius, Raimundas, Lyons, Ronan Anthony, Ma, Stefan, Mahdi, Abbas Ali, Marzan, Melvin Barrientos, Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq, Mazorodze, Tasara T, McGrath, John J, Memish, Ziad A, Mendoza, Walter, Mensah, George A, Meretoja, Atte, Miller, Ted R, Mills, Edward J, Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin, Mokdad, Ali H, Monasta, Lorenzo, Montico, Marcella, Moore, Ami R, Moschandreas, Joanna, Msemburi, William T, Mueller, Ulrich O, Muszynska, Magdalena M, Naghavi, Mohsen, Naidoo, Kovin S, Narayan, KM Venkat, Nejjari, Chakib, Ng, Marie, de Dieu Ngirabega, Jean, Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J, Nyakarahuka, Luke, Ohkubo, Takayoshi, Omer, Saad B, Caicedo, Angel J Paternina, Wyk, Victoria Pillay-van, Pope, Dan, Pourmalek, Farshad, Prabhakaran, Dorairaj, Rahman, Sajjad UR, Rana, Saleem M, Reilly, Robert Quentin, Rojas-Rueda, David, Ronfani, Luca, Rushton, Lesley, Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya, Salomon, Joshua A, Sampson, Uchechukwu, Santos, Itamar S, Sawhney, Monika, Schmidt, Jürgen C, Shakh-Nazarova, Marina, She, Jun, Sheikhbahaei, Sara, Shibuya, Kenji, Shin, Hwashin Hyun, Shishani, Kawkab, Shiue, Ivy, Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora, Singh, Jasvinder A, Skirbekk, Vegard, Sliwa, Karen, Soshnikov, Sergey S, Sposato, Luciano A, Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi, Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos, Tabb, Karen M, Talongwa, Roberto Tchio, Teixeira, Carolina Maria, Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman, Thomson, Alan J, Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L, Toyoshima, Hideaki, Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala, Uwaliraye, Parfait, Uzun, Selen Begüm, Vasankari, Tommi J, Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales, Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich, Vollset, Stein Emil, Waller, Stephen, Wan, Xia, Weichenthal, Scott, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Weintraub, Robert G, Westerman, Ronny, Wilkinson, James D, Williams, Hywel C, Yang, Yang C, Yentur, Gokalp Kadri, Yip, Paul, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Younis, Mustafa, Yu, Chuanhua, Jin, Kim Yun, El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa, Zhu, Shankuan, Vos, Theo, Lopez, Alan D, Murray, Christopher J L, Wang, Haidong, Liddell, Chelsea A, Coates, Matthew M, Mooney, Meghan D, Levitz, Carly E, Schumacher, Austin E, Apfel, Henry, Iannarone, Marissa, Phillips, Bryan, Lofgren, Katherine T, Sandar, Logan, Dorrington, Rob E, Rakovac, Ivo, Jacobs, Troy A, Liang, Xiaofeng, Zhou, Maigeng, Zhu, Jun, Yang, Gonghuan, Wang, Yanping, Liu, Shiwei, Li, Yichong, Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Abubakar, Ibrahim, Achoki, Tom, Adelekan, Ademola, Ademi, Zanfina, Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw, Allen, Peter J, AlMazroa, Mohammad AbdulAziz, Alvarez, Elena, Amankwaa, Adansi A, Amare, Azmeraw T, Ammar, Walid, Anwari, Palwasha, Cunningham, Solveig Argeseanu, Asad, Majed Masoud, Assadi, Reza, Banerjee, Amitava, Basu, Sanjay, Bedi, Neeraj, Bekele, Tolesa, Bell, Michelle L, Bhutta, Zulfiqar, Blore, Jed D, Basara, Berrak Bora, Boufous, Soufiane, Breitborde, Nicholas, Bruce, Nigel G, Bui, Linh Ngoc, Carapetis, Jonathan R, Cárdenas, Rosario, Carpenter, David O, Caso, Valeria, Castro, Ruben Estanislao, Catalá-Lopéz, Ferrán, Cavlin, Alanur, Che, Xuan, Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia, Chowdhury, Rajiv, Christophi, Costas A, Chuang, Ting-Wu, Cirillo, Massimo, da Costa Leite, Iuri, Courville, Karen J, Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, Davis, Adrian, Dayama, Anand, Deribe, Kebede, Dharmaratne, Samath D, Dherani, Mukesh K, Dilmen, Uğur, Ding, Eric L, Edmond, Karen M, Ermakov, Sergei Petrovich, Farzadfar, Farshad, Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Fijabi, Daniel Obadare, Foigt, Nataliya, Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, Garcia, Ana C, Geleijnse, Johanna M, Gessner, Bradford D, Goginashvili, Ketevan, Gona, Philimon, Goto, Atsushi, Gouda, Hebe N, Green, Mark A, Greenwell, Karen Fern, Gugnani, Harish Chander, Gupta, Rahul, Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi, Hammami, Mouhanad, Harb, Hilda L, Hay, Simon, Hedayati, Mohammad T, Hosgood, H Dean, Hoy, Damian G, Idrisov, Bulat T, Islami, Farhad, Ismayilova, Samaya, Jha, Vivekanand, Jiang, Guohong, Jonas, Jost B, Juel, Knud, Kabagambe, Edmond Kato, Kazi, Dhruv S, Kengne, Andre Pascal, Kereselidze, Maia, Khader, Yousef Saleh, Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan, Khang, Young-Ho, Kim, Daniel, Kinfu, Yohannes, Kinge, Jonas M, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kosen, Soewarta, Defo, Barthelemy Kuate, Kumar, G Anil, Kumar, Kaushalendra, Kumar, Ravi B, Lai, Taavi, Lan, Qing, Larsson, Anders, Lee, Jong-Tae, Leinsalu, Mall, Lim, Stephen S, Lipshultz, Steven E, Logroscino, Giancarlo, Lotufo, Paulo A, Lunevicius, Raimundas, Lyons, Ronan Anthony, Ma, Stefan, Mahdi, Abbas Ali, Marzan, Melvin Barrientos, Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq, Mazorodze, Tasara T, McGrath, John J, Memish, Ziad A, Mendoza, Walter, Mensah, George A, Meretoja, Atte, Miller, Ted R, Mills, Edward J, Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin, Mokdad, Ali H, Monasta, Lorenzo, Montico, Marcella, Moore, Ami R, Moschandreas, Joanna, Msemburi, William T, Mueller, Ulrich O, Muszynska, Magdalena M, Naghavi, Mohsen, Naidoo, Kovin S, Narayan, KM Venkat, Nejjari, Chakib, Ng, Marie, de Dieu Ngirabega, Jean, Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J, Nyakarahuka, Luke, Ohkubo, Takayoshi, Omer, Saad B, Caicedo, Angel J Paternina, Wyk, Victoria Pillay-van, Pope, Dan, Pourmalek, Farshad, Prabhakaran, Dorairaj, Rahman, Sajjad UR, Rana, Saleem M, Reilly, Robert Quentin, Rojas-Rueda, David, Ronfani, Luca, Rushton, Lesley, Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya, Salomon, Joshua A, Sampson, Uchechukwu, Santos, Itamar S, Sawhney, Monika, Schmidt, Jürgen C, Shakh-Nazarova, Marina, She, Jun, Sheikhbahaei, Sara, Shibuya, Kenji, Shin, Hwashin Hyun, Shishani, Kawkab, Shiue, Ivy, Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora, Singh, Jasvinder A, Skirbekk, Vegard, Sliwa, Karen, Soshnikov, Sergey S, Sposato, Luciano A, Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi, Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos, Tabb, Karen M, Talongwa, Roberto Tchio, Teixeira, Carolina Maria, Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman, Thomson, Alan J, Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L, Toyoshima, Hideaki, Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala, Uwaliraye, Parfait, Uzun, Selen Begüm, Vasankari, Tommi J, Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales, Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich, Vollset, Stein Emil, Waller, Stephen, Wan, Xia, Weichenthal, Scott, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Weintraub, Robert G, Westerman, Ronny, Wilkinson, James D, Williams, Hywel C, Yang, Yang C, Yentur, Gokalp Kadri, Yip, Paul, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Younis, Mustafa, Yu, Chuanhua, Jin, Kim Yun, El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa, Zhu, Shankuan, Vos, Theo, Lopez, Alan D, and Murray, Christopher J L
Abstract: Background Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success. Methods We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0–6 days), late neonatal (7–28 days), postneonatal (29–364 days), childhood (1–4 years), and under-5 (0–4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29 000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030. Findings We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0–6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1–18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6–177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8–2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from –6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000–13 than during 1990–2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6%
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4. Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Author: Wang, Haidong, Liddell, Chelsea A, Coates, Matthew M, Mooney, Meghan D, Levitz, Carly E, Schumacher, Austin E, Apfel, Henry, Iannarone, Marissa, Phillips, Bryan, Lofgren, Katherine T, Sandar, Logan, Dorrington, Rob E, Rakovac, Ivo, Jacobs, Troy A, Liang, Xiaofeng, Zhou, Maigeng, Zhu, Jun, Yang, Gonghuan, Wang, Yanping, Liu, Shiwei, Li, Yichong, Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Abubakar, Ibrahim, Achoki, Tom, Adelekan, Ademola, Ademi, Zanfina, Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw, Allen, Peter J, AlMazroa, Mohammad AbdulAziz, Alvarez, Elena, Amankwaa, Adansi A, Amare, Azmeraw T, Ammar, Walid, Anwari, Palwasha, Cunningham, Solveig Argeseanu, Asad, Majed Masoud, Assadi, Reza, Banerjee, Amitava, Basu, Sanjay, Bedi, Neeraj, Bekele, Tolesa, Bell, Michelle L, Bhutta, Zulfiqar, Blore, Jed D, Basara, Berrak Bora, Boufous, Soufiane, Breitborde, Nicholas, Bruce, Nigel G, Bui, Linh Ngoc, Carapetis, Jonathan R, Cárdenas, Rosario, Carpenter, David O, Caso, Valeria, Castro, Ruben Estanislao, Catalá-Lopéz, Ferrán, Cavlin, Alanur, Che, Xuan, Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia, Chowdhury, Rajiv, Christophi, Costas A, Chuang, Ting-Wu, Cirillo, Massimo, da Costa Leite, Iuri, Courville, Karen J, Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, Davis, Adrian, Dayama, Anand, Deribe, Kebede, Dharmaratne, Samath D, Dherani, Mukesh K, Dilmen, Uğur, Ding, Eric L, Edmond, Karen M, Ermakov, Sergei Petrovich, Farzadfar, Farshad, Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Fijabi, Daniel Obadare, Foigt, Nataliya, Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, Garcia, Ana C, Geleijnse, Johanna M, Gessner, Bradford D, Goginashvili, Ketevan, Gona, Philimon, Goto, Atsushi, Gouda, Hebe N, Green, Mark A, Greenwell, Karen Fern, Gugnani, Harish Chander, Gupta, Rahul, Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi, Hammami, Mouhanad, Harb, Hilda L, Hay, Simon, Hedayati, Mohammad T, Hosgood, H Dean, Hoy, Damian G, Idrisov, Bulat T, Islami, Farhad, Ismayilova, Samaya, Jha, Vivekanand, Jiang, Guohong, Jonas, Jost B, Juel, Knud, Kabagambe, Edmond Kato, Kazi, Dhruv S, Kengne, Andre Pascal, Kereselidze, Maia, Khader, Yousef Saleh, Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan, Khang, Young-Ho, Kim, Daniel, Kinfu, Yohannes, Kinge, Jonas M, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kosen, Soewarta, Defo, Barthelemy Kuate, Kumar, G Anil, Kumar, Kaushalendra, Kumar, Ravi B, Lai, Taavi, Lan, Qing, Larsson, Anders, Lee, Jong-Tae, Leinsalu, Mall, Lim, Stephen S, Lipshultz, Steven E, Logroscino, Giancarlo, Lotufo, Paulo A, Lunevicius, Raimundas, Lyons, Ronan Anthony, Ma, Stefan, Mahdi, Abbas Ali, Marzan, Melvin Barrientos, Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq, Mazorodze, Tasara T, McGrath, John J, Memish, Ziad A, Mendoza, Walter, Mensah, George A, Meretoja, Atte, Miller, Ted R, Mills, Edward J, Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin, Mokdad, Ali H, Monasta, Lorenzo, Montico, Marcella, Moore, Ami R, Moschandreas, Joanna, Msemburi, William T, Mueller, Ulrich O, Muszynska, Magdalena M, Naghavi, Mohsen, Naidoo, Kovin S, Narayan, KM Venkat, Nejjari, Chakib, Ng, Marie, de Dieu Ngirabega, Jean, Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J, Nyakarahuka, Luke, Ohkubo, Takayoshi, Omer, Saad B, Caicedo, Angel J Paternina, Wyk, Victoria Pillay-van, Pope, Dan, Pourmalek, Farshad, Prabhakaran, Dorairaj, Rahman, Sajjad UR, Rana, Saleem M, Reilly, Robert Quentin, Rojas-Rueda, David, Ronfani, Luca, Rushton, Lesley, Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya, Salomon, Joshua A, Sampson, Uchechukwu, Santos, Itamar S, Sawhney, Monika, Schmidt, Jürgen C, Shakh-Nazarova, Marina, She, Jun, Sheikhbahaei, Sara, Shibuya, Kenji, Shin, Hwashin Hyun, Shishani, Kawkab, Shiue, Ivy, Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora, Singh, Jasvinder A, Skirbekk, Vegard, Sliwa, Karen, Soshnikov, Sergey S, Sposato, Luciano A, Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi, Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos, Tabb, Karen M, Talongwa, Roberto Tchio, Teixeira, Carolina Maria, Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman, Thomson, Alan J, Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L, Toyoshima, Hideaki, Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala, Uwaliraye, Parfait, Uzun, Selen Begüm, Vasankari, Tommi J, Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales, Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich, Vollset, Stein Emil, Waller, Stephen, Wan, Xia, Weichenthal, Scott, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Weintraub, Robert G, Westerman, Ronny, Wilkinson, James D, Williams, Hywel C, Yang, Yang C, Yentur, Gokalp Kadri, Yip, Paul, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Younis, Mustafa, Yu, Chuanhua, Jin, Kim Yun, El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa, Zhu, Shankuan, Vos, Theo, Lopez, Alan D, Murray, Christopher J L, Wang, Haidong, Liddell, Chelsea A, Coates, Matthew M, Mooney, Meghan D, Levitz, Carly E, Schumacher, Austin E, Apfel, Henry, Iannarone, Marissa, Phillips, Bryan, Lofgren, Katherine T, Sandar, Logan, Dorrington, Rob E, Rakovac, Ivo, Jacobs, Troy A, Liang, Xiaofeng, Zhou, Maigeng, Zhu, Jun, Yang, Gonghuan, Wang, Yanping, Liu, Shiwei, Li, Yichong, Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Abubakar, Ibrahim, Achoki, Tom, Adelekan, Ademola, Ademi, Zanfina, Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw, Allen, Peter J, AlMazroa, Mohammad AbdulAziz, Alvarez, Elena, Amankwaa, Adansi A, Amare, Azmeraw T, Ammar, Walid, Anwari, Palwasha, Cunningham, Solveig Argeseanu, Asad, Majed Masoud, Assadi, Reza, Banerjee, Amitava, Basu, Sanjay, Bedi, Neeraj, Bekele, Tolesa, Bell, Michelle L, Bhutta, Zulfiqar, Blore, Jed D, Basara, Berrak Bora, Boufous, Soufiane, Breitborde, Nicholas, Bruce, Nigel G, Bui, Linh Ngoc, Carapetis, Jonathan R, Cárdenas, Rosario, Carpenter, David O, Caso, Valeria, Castro, Ruben Estanislao, Catalá-Lopéz, Ferrán, Cavlin, Alanur, Che, Xuan, Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia, Chowdhury, Rajiv, Christophi, Costas A, Chuang, Ting-Wu, Cirillo, Massimo, da Costa Leite, Iuri, Courville, Karen J, Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, Davis, Adrian, Dayama, Anand, Deribe, Kebede, Dharmaratne, Samath D, Dherani, Mukesh K, Dilmen, Uğur, Ding, Eric L, Edmond, Karen M, Ermakov, Sergei Petrovich, Farzadfar, Farshad, Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Fijabi, Daniel Obadare, Foigt, Nataliya, Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, Garcia, Ana C, Geleijnse, Johanna M, Gessner, Bradford D, Goginashvili, Ketevan, Gona, Philimon, Goto, Atsushi, Gouda, Hebe N, Green, Mark A, Greenwell, Karen Fern, Gugnani, Harish Chander, Gupta, Rahul, Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi, Hammami, Mouhanad, Harb, Hilda L, Hay, Simon, Hedayati, Mohammad T, Hosgood, H Dean, Hoy, Damian G, Idrisov, Bulat T, Islami, Farhad, Ismayilova, Samaya, Jha, Vivekanand, Jiang, Guohong, Jonas, Jost B, Juel, Knud, Kabagambe, Edmond Kato, Kazi, Dhruv S, Kengne, Andre Pascal, Kereselidze, Maia, Khader, Yousef Saleh, Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan, Khang, Young-Ho, Kim, Daniel, Kinfu, Yohannes, Kinge, Jonas M, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kosen, Soewarta, Defo, Barthelemy Kuate, Kumar, G Anil, Kumar, Kaushalendra, Kumar, Ravi B, Lai, Taavi, Lan, Qing, Larsson, Anders, Lee, Jong-Tae, Leinsalu, Mall, Lim, Stephen S, Lipshultz, Steven E, Logroscino, Giancarlo, Lotufo, Paulo A, Lunevicius, Raimundas, Lyons, Ronan Anthony, Ma, Stefan, Mahdi, Abbas Ali, Marzan, Melvin Barrientos, Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq, Mazorodze, Tasara T, McGrath, John J, Memish, Ziad A, Mendoza, Walter, Mensah, George A, Meretoja, Atte, Miller, Ted R, Mills, Edward J, Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin, Mokdad, Ali H, Monasta, Lorenzo, Montico, Marcella, Moore, Ami R, Moschandreas, Joanna, Msemburi, William T, Mueller, Ulrich O, Muszynska, Magdalena M, Naghavi, Mohsen, Naidoo, Kovin S, Narayan, KM Venkat, Nejjari, Chakib, Ng, Marie, de Dieu Ngirabega, Jean, Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J, Nyakarahuka, Luke, Ohkubo, Takayoshi, Omer, Saad B, Caicedo, Angel J Paternina, Wyk, Victoria Pillay-van, Pope, Dan, Pourmalek, Farshad, Prabhakaran, Dorairaj, Rahman, Sajjad UR, Rana, Saleem M, Reilly, Robert Quentin, Rojas-Rueda, David, Ronfani, Luca, Rushton, Lesley, Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya, Salomon, Joshua A, Sampson, Uchechukwu, Santos, Itamar S, Sawhney, Monika, Schmidt, Jürgen C, Shakh-Nazarova, Marina, She, Jun, Sheikhbahaei, Sara, Shibuya, Kenji, Shin, Hwashin Hyun, Shishani, Kawkab, Shiue, Ivy, Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora, Singh, Jasvinder A, Skirbekk, Vegard, Sliwa, Karen, Soshnikov, Sergey S, Sposato, Luciano A, Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi, Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos, Tabb, Karen M, Talongwa, Roberto Tchio, Teixeira, Carolina Maria, Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman, Thomson, Alan J, Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L, Toyoshima, Hideaki, Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala, Uwaliraye, Parfait, Uzun, Selen Begüm, Vasankari, Tommi J, Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales, Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich, Vollset, Stein Emil, Waller, Stephen, Wan, Xia, Weichenthal, Scott, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Weintraub, Robert G, Westerman, Ronny, Wilkinson, James D, Williams, Hywel C, Yang, Yang C, Yentur, Gokalp Kadri, Yip, Paul, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Younis, Mustafa, Yu, Chuanhua, Jin, Kim Yun, El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa, Zhu, Shankuan, Vos, Theo, Lopez, Alan D, and Murray, Christopher J L
Abstract: Background Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success. Methods We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0–6 days), late neonatal (7–28 days), postneonatal (29–364 days), childhood (1–4 years), and under-5 (0–4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29 000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030. Findings We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0–6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1–18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6–177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8–2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from –6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000–13 than during 1990–2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6%
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5. Assessing COVID-19 pandemic policies and behaviours and their economic and educational trade-offs across US states from Jan 1, 2020, to July 31, 2022: an observational analysis.

Author: Bollyky TJ, Castro E, Aravkin AY, Bhangdia K, Dalos J, Hulland EN, Kiernan S, Lastuka A, McHugh TA, Ostroff SM, Zheng P, Chaudhry HT, Ruggiero E, Turilli I, Adolph C, Amlag JO, Bang-Jensen B, Barber RM, Carter A, Chang C, Cogen RM, Collins JK, Dai X, Dangel WJ, Dapper C, Deen A, Eastus A, Erickson M, Fedosseeva T, Flaxman AD, Fullman N, Giles JR, Guo G, Hay SI, He J, Helak M, Huntley BM, Iannucci VC, Kinzel KE, LeGrand KE, Magistro B, Mokdad AH, Nassereldine H, Ozten Y, Pasovic M, Pigott DM, Reiner RC Jr, Reinke G, Schumacher AE, Serieux E, Spurlock EE, Troeger CE, Vo AT, Vos T, Walcott R, Yazdani S, Murray CJL, and Dieleman JL
Subjects: Humans, Pandemics prevention & control, SARS-CoV-2, Educational Status, Policy, COVID-19 epidemiology
Abstract: Background: The USA struggled in responding to the COVID-19 pandemic, but not all states struggled equally. Identifying the factors associated with cross-state variation in infection and mortality rates could help to improve responses to this and future pandemics. We sought to answer five key policy-relevant questions regarding the following: 1) what roles social, economic, and racial inequities had in interstate variation in COVID-19 outcomes; 2) whether states with greater health-care and public health capacity had better outcomes; 3) how politics influenced the results; 4) whether states that imposed more policy mandates and sustained them longer had better outcomes; and 5) whether there were trade-offs between a state having fewer cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections and total COVID-19 deaths and its economic and educational outcomes., Methods: Data disaggregated by US state were extracted from public databases, including COVID-19 infection and mortality estimates from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's (IHME) COVID-19 database; Bureau of Economic Analysis data on state gross domestic product (GDP); Federal Reserve economic data on employment rates; National Center for Education Statistics data on student standardised test scores; and US Census Bureau data on race and ethnicity by state. We standardised infection rates for population density and death rates for age and the prevalence of major comorbidities to facilitate comparison of states' successes in mitigating the effects of COVID-19. We regressed these health outcomes on prepandemic state characteristics (such as educational attainment and health spending per capita), policies adopted by states during the pandemic (such as mask mandates and business closures), and population-level behavioural responses (such as vaccine coverage and mobility). We explored potential mechanisms connecting state-level factors to individual-level behaviours using linear regression. We quantified reductions in state GDP, employment, and student test scores during the pandemic to identify policy and behavioural responses associated with these outcomes and to assess trade-offs between these outcomes and COVID-19 outcomes. Significance was defined as p<0·05., Findings: Standardised cumulative COVID-19 death rates for the period from Jan 1, 2020, to July 31, 2022 varied across the USA (national rate 372 deaths per 100 000 population [95% uncertainty interval [UI] 364-379]), with the lowest standardised rates in Hawaii (147 deaths per 100 000 [127-196]) and New Hampshire (215 per 100 000 [183-271]) and the highest in Arizona (581 per 100 000 [509-672]) and Washington, DC (526 per 100 000 [425-631]). A lower poverty rate, higher mean number of years of education, and a greater proportion of people expressing interpersonal trust were statistically associated with lower infection and death rates, and states where larger percentages of the population identify as Black (non-Hispanic) or Hispanic were associated with higher cumulative death rates. Access to quality health care (measured by the IHME's Healthcare Access and Quality Index) was associated with fewer total COVID-19 deaths and SARS-CoV-2 infections, but higher public health spending and more public health personnel per capita were not, at the state level. The political affiliation of the state governor was not associated with lower SARS-CoV-2 infection or COVID-19 death rates, but worse COVID-19 outcomes were associated with the proportion of a state's voters who voted for the 2020 Republican presidential candidate. State governments' uses of protective mandates were associated with lower infection rates, as were mask use, lower mobility, and higher vaccination rate, while vaccination rates were associated with lower death rates. State GDP and student reading test scores were not associated with state COVD-19 policy responses, infection rates, or death rates. Employment, however, had a statistically significant relationship with restaurant closures and greater infections and deaths: on average, 1574 (95% UI 884-7107) additional infections per 10 000 population were associated in states with a one percentage point increase in employment rate. Several policy mandates and protective behaviours were associated with lower fourth-grade mathematics test scores, but our study results did not find a link to state-level estimates of school closures., Interpretation: COVID-19 magnified the polarisation and persistent social, economic, and racial inequities that already existed across US society, but the next pandemic threat need not do the same. US states that mitigated those structural inequalities, deployed science-based interventions such as vaccination and targeted vaccine mandates, and promoted their adoption across society were able to match the best-performing nations in minimising COVID-19 death rates. These findings could contribute to the design and targeting of clinical and policy interventions to facilitate better health outcomes in future crises., Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, J Stanton, T Gillespie, J and E Nordstrom, and Bloomberg Philanthropies., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests CA reports support for the current work from the Benificus Foundation. ADF reports other financial or non-financial support from Johnson & Johnson, Sanofi, and SwissRe outside of the submitted work. NF reports financial support from WHO and Gates Ventures outside of the submitted work. All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)
Published: 2023
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6. Delayed diagnosis of palatal adenoid cystic carcinoma: Review of diagnostic workup and image features of perineural spread.

Author: Lee PP, Guess GC, Schumacher AE, and Dalley RW
Subjects: Delayed Diagnosis, Humans, Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Paresthesia, Retrospective Studies, Carcinoma, Adenoid Cystic diagnostic imaging
Abstract: Objectives: Adenoid cystic carcinoma (ACC) is the malignancy most likely to spread perineurally. Delayed diagnosis often leads to undetected perineural spread (PNS). Better understanding of diagnostic processes, clinical and imaging features in ACC may allow earlier diagnoses., Materials and Methods: A retrospective records search of the University of Washington Radiology archive identified patients with palatal ACC diagnosis and pre-treatment MDCT and/or MRI. Demographic data, clinical findings, diagnostic workup history and image features including the presence of PNS were recorded., Results: 44 patients met inclusion and exclusion criteria. Symptoms included pain, mass, numbness, and sinonasal congestion. The most common finding on clinical examination was visible or palpable palatal mass. 55% of patients were evaluated by a dentist pre-diagnosis. Most common initial impressions were infection and/or dental disease. PNS was identified in 81.8% of patients, most commonly at pterygopalatine fossa, palatine foramina/canals, Vidian canal, or foramen rotundum. PNS was statistically significantly associated with paresthesia (p = 0.003) but not with tumor size, age, gender, or tobacco history. 44% of patients were diagnosed ≥1 year from initial symptoms, with a mean delay of 18.3 (range < 1-72) months., Conclusions: This study represents the first analysis of the nature of the diagnostic process of palatal ACC. Majorities of patients were evaluated by a general dentist pre-diagnosis. PNS was identified in a majority of patients and all the patients who presented with paresthesia had evidence of PNS. Despite patients presenting with paresthesia, palatal ACC is often initially misdiagnosed resulting in delayed diagnosis., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)
Published: 2021
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7. Osteoarthritis of the temporomandibular joint and increase of the horizontal condylar angle: a longitudinal study.

Author: Lee PP, Stanton AR, Schumacher AE, Truelove E, and Hollender LG
Subjects: Disease Progression, Humans, Longitudinal Studies, Temporomandibular Joint, Mandibular Condyle anatomy & histology, Osteoarthritis, Temporomandibular Joint Disorders
Abstract: Objective: Our previous study of patients with unilateral temporomandibular joint (TMJ) osteoarthritis (OA) showed that the affected joints had greater horizontal condylar angle (HCA) compared with the contralateral unaffected joints. However, it was unclear whether the HCA changes preceded or were the result of OA changes. The aim of this longitudinal study was to investigate the relationship between HCA and OA progression., Study Design: In total, 127 patients (with or without TMJ disorders) completed baseline and follow-up examinations (average time to follow-up 7.9 years). Generalized estimating equation models were used to account for correlation of observations within the same patients., Results: (1) HCA was greater in OA-affected joints than in unaffected joints (P = .04). (2) Increased HCA at follow-up was associated with change in joint status from no OA to OA. (P = .001). (3) Baseline HCA value alone did not predict future OA diagnosis. (4) All OA changes in fossa/articular eminence morphology, and some combinations of condylar changes, were associated with a greater HCA. (5) OA diagnosis was associated with pain during maximum opening (P = .005) and pain history (P = .002). (6) Aging alone was not correlated with increased HCA., Conclusions: Clinical progression of OA preceded increases in HCA. HCA alone did not predict OA development., (Copyright © 2019. Published by Elsevier Inc.)
Published: 2019
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8. Under-5 mortality in 2851 Chinese counties, 1996-2012: a subnational assessment of achieving MDG 4 goals in China.

Author: Wang Y, Li X, Zhou M, Luo S, Liang J, Liddell CA, Coates MM, Gao Y, Wang L, He C, Kang C, Liu S, Dai L, Schumacher AE, Fraser MS, Wolock TM, Pain A, Levitz CE, Singh L, Coggeshall M, Lind M, Li Y, Li Q, Deng K, Mu Y, Deng C, Yi L, Liu Z, Ma X, Li H, Mu D, Zhu J, Murray CJ, and Wang H
Subjects: Age Factors, Child, Preschool, China epidemiology, History, 20th Century, History, 21st Century, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Models, Econometric, Socioeconomic Factors, Child Mortality history, Healthy People Programs statistics & numerical data, Infant Mortality history
Abstract: Background: In the past two decades, the under-5 mortality rate in China has fallen substantially, but progress with regards to the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4 at the subnational level has not been quantified. We aimed to estimate under-5 mortality rates in mainland China for the years 1970 to 2012., Methods: We estimated the under-5 mortality rate for 31 provinces in mainland China between 1970 and 2013 with data from censuses, surveys, surveillance sites, and disease surveillance points. We estimated under-5 mortality rates for 2851 counties in China from 1996 to 2012 with the reported child mortality numbers from the Annual Report System on Maternal and Child Health. We used a small area mortality estimation model, spatiotemporal smoothing, and Gaussian process regression to synthesise data and generate consistent provincial and county-level estimates. We compared progress at the county level with what was expected on the basis of income and educational attainment using an econometric model. We computed Gini coefficients to study the inequality of under-5 mortality rates across counties., Findings: In 2012, the lowest provincial level under-5 mortality rate in China was about five per 1000 livebirths, lower than in Canada, New Zealand, and the USA. The highest provincial level under-5 mortality rate in China was higher than that of Bangladesh. 29 provinces achieved a decrease in under-5 mortality rates twice as fast as the MDG 4 target rate; only two provinces will not achieve MDG 4 by 2015. Although some counties in China have under-5 mortality rates similar to those in the most developed nations in 2012, some have similar rates to those recorded in Burkina Faso and Cameroon. Despite wide differences, the inter-county Gini coefficient has been decreasing. Improvement in maternal education and the economic boom have contributed to the fall in child mortality; more than 60% of the counties in China had rates of decline in under-5 mortality rates significantly faster than expected. Fast reduction in under-5 mortality rates have been recorded not only in the Han population, the dominant ethnic majority in China, but also in the minority populations. All top ten minority groups in terms of population sizes have experienced annual reductions in under-5 mortality rates faster than the MDG 4 target at 4.4%., Interpretation: The reduction of under-5 mortality rates in China at the country, provincial, and county level is an extraordinary success story. Reductions of under-5 mortality rates faster than 8.8% (twice MDG 4 pace) are possible. Extremely rapid declines seem to be related to public policy in addition to socioeconomic progress. Lessons from successful counties should prove valuable for China to intensify efforts for those with unacceptably high under-5 mortality rates., Funding: National "Twelfth Five-Year" Plan for Science and Technology Support, National Health and Family Planning Commission of The People's Republic of China, Program for Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Team in University, the National Institute on Aging, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)
Published: 2016
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9. Changes in health in England, with analysis by English regions and areas of deprivation, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

Author: Newton JN, Briggs AD, Murray CJ, Dicker D, Foreman KJ, Wang H, Naghavi M, Forouzanfar MH, Ohno SL, Barber RM, Vos T, Stanaway JD, Schmidt JC, Hughes AJ, Fay DF, Ecob R, Gresser C, McKee M, Rutter H, Abubakar I, Ali R, Anderson HR, Banerjee A, Bennett DA, Bernabé E, Bhui KS, Biryukov SM, Bourne RR, Brayne CE, Bruce NG, Brugha TS, Burch M, Capewell S, Casey D, Chowdhury R, Coates MM, Cooper C, Critchley JA, Dargan PI, Dherani MK, Elliott P, Ezzati M, Fenton KA, Fraser MS, Fürst T, Greaves F, Green MA, Gunnell DJ, Hannigan BM, Hay RJ, Hay SI, Hemingway H, Larson HJ, Looker KJ, Lunevicius R, Lyons RA, Marcenes W, Mason-Jones AJ, Matthews FE, Moller H, Murdoch ME, Newton CR, Pearce N, Piel FB, Pope D, Rahimi K, Rodriguez A, Scarborough P, Schumacher AE, Shiue I, Smeeth L, Tedstone A, Valabhji J, Williams HC, Wolfe CD, Woolf AD, and Davis AC
Subjects: Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Cause of Death trends, England epidemiology, Female, Health Status Disparities, Humans, Incidence, Life Expectancy trends, Life Tables, Male, Prevalence, Risk Factors, Health Status, Poverty Areas
Abstract: Background: In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), knowledge about health and its determinants has been integrated into a comparable framework to inform health policy. Outputs of this analysis are relevant to current policy questions in England and elsewhere, particularly on health inequalities. We use GBD 2013 data on mortality and causes of death, and disease and injury incidence and prevalence to analyse the burden of disease and injury in England as a whole, in English regions, and within each English region by deprivation quintile. We also assess disease and injury burden in England attributable to potentially preventable risk factors. England and the English regions are compared with the remaining constituent countries of the UK and with comparable countries in the European Union (EU) and beyond., Methods: We extracted data from the GBD 2013 to compare mortality, causes of death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with a disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in England, the UK, and 18 other countries (the first 15 EU members [apart from the UK] and Australia, Canada, Norway, and the USA [EU15+]). We extended elements of the analysis to English regions, and subregional areas defined by deprivation quintile (deprivation areas). We used data split by the nine English regions (corresponding to the European boundaries of the Nomenclature for Territorial Statistics level 1 [NUTS 1] regions), and by quintile groups within each English region according to deprivation, thereby making 45 regional deprivation areas. Deprivation quintiles were defined by area of residence ranked at national level by Index of Multiple Deprivation score, 2010. Burden due to various risk factors is described for England using new GBD methodology to estimate independent and overlapping attributable risk for five tiers of behavioural, metabolic, and environmental risk factors. We present results for 306 causes and 2337 sequelae, and 79 risks or risk clusters., Findings: Between 1990 and 2013, life expectancy from birth in England increased by 5·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 5·0-5·8) from 75·9 years (75·9-76·0) to 81·3 years (80·9-81·7); gains were greater for men than for women. Rates of age-standardised YLLs reduced by 41·1% (38·3-43·6), whereas DALYs were reduced by 23·8% (20·9-27·1), and YLDs by 1·4% (0·1-2·8). For these measures, England ranked better than the UK and the EU15+ means. Between 1990 and 2013, the range in life expectancy among 45 regional deprivation areas remained 8·2 years for men and decreased from 7·2 years in 1990 to 6·9 years in 2013 for women. In 2013, the leading cause of YLLs was ischaemic heart disease, and the leading cause of DALYs was low back and neck pain. Known risk factors accounted for 39·6% (37·7-41·7) of DALYs; leading behavioural risk factors were suboptimal diet (10·8% [9·1-12·7]) and tobacco (10·7% [9·4-12·0])., Interpretation: Health in England is improving although substantial opportunities exist for further reductions in the burden of preventable disease. The gap in mortality rates between men and women has reduced, but marked health inequalities between the least deprived and most deprived areas remain. Declines in mortality have not been matched by similar declines in morbidity, resulting in people living longer with diseases. Health policies must therefore address the causes of ill health as well as those of premature mortality. Systematic action locally and nationally is needed to reduce risk exposures, support healthy behaviours, alleviate the severity of chronic disabling disorders, and mitigate the effects of socioeconomic deprivation., Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Public Health England., (Copyright © 2015 Newton et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)
Published: 2015
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10. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990-2013: quantifying the epidemiological transition.

Author: Murray CJ, Barber RM, Foreman KJ, Abbasoglu Ozgoren A, Abd-Allah F, Abera SF, Aboyans V, Abraham JP, Abubakar I, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NM, Achoki T, Ackerman IN, Ademi Z, Adou AK, Adsuar JC, Afshin A, Agardh EE, Alam SS, Alasfoor D, Albittar MI, Alegretti MA, Alemu ZA, Alfonso-Cristancho R, Alhabib S, Ali R, Alla F, Allebeck P, Almazroa MA, Alsharif U, Alvarez E, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Ameh EA, Amini H, Ammar W, Anderson HR, Anderson BO, Antonio CA, Anwari P, Arnlöv J, Arsic Arsenijevic VS, Artaman A, Asghar RJ, Assadi R, Atkins LS, Avila MA, Awuah B, Bachman VF, Badawi A, Bahit MC, Balakrishnan K, Banerjee A, Barker-Collo SL, Barquera S, Barregard L, Barrero LH, Basu A, Basu S, Basulaiman MO, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Beghi E, Bekele T, Bell ML, Benjet C, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Benzian H, Bernabé E, Bertozzi-Villa A, Beyene TJ, Bhala N, Bhalla A, Bhutta ZA, Bienhoff K, Bikbov B, Biryukov S, Blore JD, Blosser CD, Blyth FM, Bohensky MA, Bolliger IW, Bora Başara B, Bornstein NM, Bose D, Boufous S, Bourne RR, Boyers LN, Brainin M, Brayne CE, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJ, Brenner H, Briggs AD, Brooks PM, Brown JC, Brugha TS, Buchbinder R, Buckle GC, Budke CM, Bulchis A, Bulloch AG, Campos-Nonato IR, Carabin H, Carapetis JR, Cárdenas R, Carpenter DO, Caso V, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castro RE, Catalá-López F, Cavalleri F, Çavlin A, Chadha VK, Chang JC, Charlson FJ, Chen H, Chen W, Chiang PP, Chimed-Ochir O, Chowdhury R, Christensen H, Christophi CA, Cirillo M, Coates MM, Coffeng LE, Coggeshall MS, Colistro V, Colquhoun SM, Cooke GS, Cooper C, Cooper LT, Coppola LM, Cortinovis M, Criqui MH, Crump JA, Cuevas-Nasu L, Danawi H, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dansereau E, Dargan PI, Davey G, Davis A, Davitoiu DV, Dayama A, De Leo D, Degenhardt L, Del Pozo-Cruz B, Dellavalle RP, Deribe K, Derrett S, Des Jarlais DC, Dessalegn M, Dharmaratne SD, Dherani MK, Diaz-Torné C, Dicker D, Ding EL, Dokova K, Dorsey ER, Driscoll TR, Duan L, Duber HC, Ebel BE, Edmond KM, Elshrek YM, Endres M, Ermakov SP, Erskine HE, Eshrati B, Esteghamati A, Estep K, Faraon EJ, Farzadfar F, Fay DF, Feigin VL, Felson DT, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JG, Ferrari AJ, Fitzmaurice C, Flaxman AD, Fleming TD, Foigt N, Forouzanfar MH, Fowkes FG, Paleo UF, Franklin RC, Fürst T, Gabbe B, Gaffikin L, Gankpé FG, Geleijnse JM, Gessner BD, Gething P, Gibney KB, Giroud M, Giussani G, Gomez Dantes H, Gona P, González-Medina D, Gosselin RA, Gotay CC, Goto A, Gouda HN, Graetz N, Gugnani HC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gutiérrez RA, Haagsma J, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hagan H, Halasa YA, Hamadeh RR, Hamavid H, Hammami M, Hancock J, Hankey GJ, Hansen GM, Hao Y, Harb HL, Haro JM, Havmoeller R, Hay SI, Hay RJ, Heredia-Pi IB, Heuton KR, Heydarpour P, Higashi H, Hijar M, Hoek HW, Hoffman HJ, Hosgood HD, Hossain M, Hotez PJ, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Hu G, Huang C, Huang JJ, Husseini A, Huynh C, Iannarone ML, Iburg KM, Innos K, Inoue M, Islami F, Jacobsen KH, Jarvis DL, Jassal SK, Jee SH, Jeemon P, Jensen PN, Jha V, Jiang G, Jiang Y, Jonas JB, Juel K, Kan H, Karch A, Karema CK, Karimkhani C, Karthikeyan G, Kassebaum NJ, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kazanjan K, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Keren A, Khader YS, Khalifa SE, Khan EA, Khan G, Khang YH, Kieling C, Kim D, Kim S, Kim Y, Kinfu Y, Kinge JM, Kivipelto M, Knibbs LD, Knudsen AK, Kokubo Y, Kosen S, Krishnaswami S, Kuate Defo B, Kucuk Bicer B, Kuipers EJ, Kulkarni C, Kulkarni VS, Kumar GA, Kyu HH, Lai T, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lam H, Lan Q, Lansingh VC, Larsson A, Lawrynowicz AE, Leasher JL, Leigh J, Leung R, Levitz CE, Li B, Li Y, Li Y, Lim SS, Lind M, Lipshultz SE, Liu S, Liu Y, Lloyd BK, Lofgren KT, Logroscino G, Looker KJ, Lortet-Tieulent J, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lucas RM, Lunevicius R, Lyons RA, Ma S, Macintyre MF, Mackay MT, Majdan M, Malekzadeh R, Marcenes W, Margolis DJ, Margono C, Marzan MB, Masci JR, Mashal MT, Matzopoulos R, Mayosi BM, Mazorodze TT, Mcgill NW, Mcgrath JJ, Mckee M, Mclain A, Meaney PA, Medina C, Mehndiratta MM, Mekonnen W, Melaku YA, Meltzer M, Memish ZA, Mensah GA, Meretoja A, Mhimbira FA, Micha R, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Mitchell PB, Mock CN, Mohamed Ibrahim N, Mohammad KA, Mokdad AH, Mola GL, Monasta L, Montañez Hernandez JC, Montico M, Montine TJ, Mooney MD, Moore AR, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moran AE, Mori R, Moschandreas J, Moturi WN, Moyer ML, Mozaffarian D, Msemburi WT, Mueller UO, Mukaigawara M, Mullany EC, Murdoch ME, Murray J, Murthy KS, Naghavi M, Naheed A, Naidoo KS, Naldi L, Nand D, Nangia V, Narayan KM, Nejjari C, Neupane SP, Newton CR, Ng M, Ngalesoni FN, Nguyen G, Nisar MI, Nolte S, Norheim OF, Norman RE, Norrving B, Nyakarahuka L, Oh IH, Ohkubo T, Ohno SL, Olusanya BO, Opio JN, Ortblad K, Ortiz A, Pain AW, Pandian JD, Panelo CI, Papachristou C, Park EK, Park JH, Patten SB, Patton GC, Paul VK, Pavlin BI, Pearce N, Pereira DM, Perez-Padilla R, Perez-Ruiz F, Perico N, Pervaiz A, Pesudovs K, Peterson CB, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Phillips BK, Phillips DE, Piel FB, Plass D, Poenaru D, Polinder S, Pope D, Popova S, Poulton RG, Pourmalek F, Prabhakaran D, Prasad NM, Pullan RL, Qato DM, Quistberg DA, Rafay A, Rahimi K, Rahman SU, Raju M, Rana SM, Razavi H, Reddy KS, Refaat A, Remuzzi G, Resnikoff S, Ribeiro AL, Richardson L, Richardus JH, Roberts DA, Rojas-Rueda D, Ronfani L, Roth GA, Rothenbacher D, Rothstein DH, Rowley JT, Roy N, Ruhago GM, Saeedi MY, Saha S, Sahraian MA, Sampson UK, Sanabria JR, Sandar L, Santos IS, Satpathy M, Sawhney M, Scarborough P, Schneider IJ, Schöttker B, Schumacher AE, Schwebel DC, Scott JG, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Serina PT, Servan-Mori EE, Shackelford KA, Shaheen A, Shahraz S, Shamah Levy T, Shangguan S, She J, Sheikhbahaei S, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shinohara Y, Shiri R, Shishani K, Shiue I, Shrime MG, Sigfusdottir ID, Silberberg DH, Simard EP, Sindi S, Singh A, Singh JA, Singh L, Skirbekk V, Slepak EL, Sliwa K, Soneji S, Søreide K, Soshnikov S, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Stanaway JD, Stathopoulou V, Stein DJ, Stein MB, Steiner C, Steiner TJ, Stevens A, Stewart A, Stovner LJ, Stroumpoulis K, Sunguya BF, Swaminathan S, Swaroop M, Sykes BL, Tabb KM, Takahashi K, Tandon N, Tanne D, Tanner M, Tavakkoli M, Taylor HR, Te Ao BJ, Tediosi F, Temesgen AM, Templin T, Ten Have M, Tenkorang EY, Terkawi AS, Thomson B, Thorne-Lyman AL, Thrift AG, Thurston GD, Tillmann T, Tonelli M, Topouzis F, Toyoshima H, Traebert J, Tran BX, Trillini M, Truelsen T, Tsilimbaris M, Tuzcu EM, Uchendu US, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Uzun SB, Van Brakel WH, Van De Vijver S, van Gool CH, Van Os J, Vasankari TJ, Venketasubramanian N, Violante FS, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Wagner GR, Wagner J, Waller SG, Wan X, Wang H, Wang J, Wang L, Warouw TS, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Wenzhi W, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Whiteford HA, Wilkinson JD, Williams TN, Wolfe CD, Wolock TM, Woolf AD, Wulf S, Wurtz B, Xu G, Yan LL, Yano Y, Ye P, Yentür GK, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Yu C, Zaki ME, Zhao Y, Zheng Y, Zonies D, Zou X, Salomon JA, Lopez AD, and Vos T
Subjects: Aged, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Mortality, Premature, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, Socioeconomic Factors, Chronic Disease epidemiology, Communicable Diseases epidemiology, Global Health statistics & numerical data, Health Transition, Life Expectancy, Wounds and Injuries epidemiology
Abstract: Background: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age-sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development., Methods: We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time., Findings: Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6-6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0-65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0-71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9-5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5-59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7-64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3-7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6-29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non-communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries., Interpretation: Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition--in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden--is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions., Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)
Published: 2015
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11. Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

Author: Wang H, Liddell CA, Coates MM, Mooney MD, Levitz CE, Schumacher AE, Apfel H, Iannarone M, Phillips B, Lofgren KT, Sandar L, Dorrington RE, Rakovac I, Jacobs TA, Liang X, Zhou M, Zhu J, Yang G, Wang Y, Liu S, Li Y, Ozgoren AA, Abera SF, Abubakar I, Achoki T, Adelekan A, Ademi Z, Alemu ZA, Allen PJ, AlMazroa MA, Alvarez E, Amankwaa AA, Amare AT, Ammar W, Anwari P, Cunningham SA, Asad MM, Assadi R, Banerjee A, Basu S, Bedi N, Bekele T, Bell ML, Bhutta Z, Blore JD, Basara BB, Boufous S, Breitborde N, Bruce NG, Bui LN, Carapetis JR, Cárdenas R, Carpenter DO, Caso V, Castro RE, Catalá-Lopéz F, Cavlin A, Che X, Chiang PP, Chowdhury R, Christophi CA, Chuang TW, Cirillo M, da Costa Leite I, Courville KJ, Dandona L, Dandona R, Davis A, Dayama A, Deribe K, Dharmaratne SD, Dherani MK, Dilmen U, Ding EL, Edmond KM, Ermakov SP, Farzadfar F, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fijabi DO, Foigt N, Forouzanfar MH, Garcia AC, Geleijnse JM, Gessner BD, Goginashvili K, Gona P, Goto A, Gouda HN, Green MA, Greenwell KF, Gugnani HC, Gupta R, Hamadeh RR, Hammami M, Harb HL, Hay S, Hedayati MT, Hosgood HD, Hoy DG, Idrisov BT, Islami F, Ismayilova S, Jha V, Jiang G, Jonas JB, Juel K, Kabagambe EK, Kazi DS, Kengne AP, Kereselidze M, Khader YS, Khalifa SE, Khang YH, Kim D, Kinfu Y, Kinge JM, Kokubo Y, Kosen S, Defo BK, Kumar GA, Kumar K, Kumar RB, Lai T, Lan Q, Larsson A, Lee JT, Leinsalu M, Lim SS, Lipshultz SE, Logroscino G, Lotufo PA, Lunevicius R, Lyons RA, Ma S, Mahdi AA, Marzan MB, Mashal MT, Mazorodze TT, McGrath JJ, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mensah GA, Meretoja A, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Mohammad KA, Mokdad AH, Monasta L, Montico M, Moore AR, Moschandreas J, Msemburi WT, Mueller UO, Muszynska MM, Naghavi M, Naidoo KS, Narayan KM, Nejjari C, Ng M, de Dieu Ngirabega J, Nieuwenhuijsen MJ, Nyakarahuka L, Ohkubo T, Omer SB, Caicedo AJ, Pillay-van Wyk V, Pope D, Pourmalek F, Prabhakaran D, Rahman SU, Rana SM, Reilly RQ, Rojas-Rueda D, Ronfani L, Rushton L, Saeedi MY, Salomon JA, Sampson U, Santos IS, Sawhney M, Schmidt JC, Shakh-Nazarova M, She J, Sheikhbahaei S, Shibuya K, Shin HH, Shishani K, Shiue I, Sigfusdottir ID, Singh JA, Skirbekk V, Sliwa K, Soshnikov SS, Sposato LA, Stathopoulou VK, Stroumpoulis K, Tabb KM, Talongwa RT, Teixeira CM, Terkawi AS, Thomson AJ, Thorne-Lyman AL, Toyoshima H, Dimbuene ZT, Uwaliraye P, Uzun SB, Vasankari TJ, Vasconcelos AM, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Waller S, Wan X, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Westerman R, Wilkinson JD, Williams HC, Yang YC, Yentur GK, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Younis M, Yu C, Jin KY, El Sayed Zaki M, Zhu S, Vos T, Lopez AD, and Murray CJ
Subjects: Child, Preschool, Global Health statistics & numerical data, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Organizational Objectives, Risk Factors, Socioeconomic Factors, Child Mortality trends, Global Health trends, Infant Mortality trends
Abstract: Background: Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success., Methods: We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29,000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030., Findings: We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0-6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1-18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6-177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8-2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from -6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone., Interpretation: Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030., Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, US Agency for International Development., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)
Published: 2014
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11 results on '"Schumacher, Austin E."'

1. Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

2. Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

3. Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

4. Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

5. Assessing COVID-19 pandemic policies and behaviours and their economic and educational trade-offs across US states from Jan 1, 2020, to July 31, 2022: an observational analysis.

6. Delayed diagnosis of palatal adenoid cystic carcinoma: Review of diagnostic workup and image features of perineural spread.

7. Osteoarthritis of the temporomandibular joint and increase of the horizontal condylar angle: a longitudinal study.

8. Under-5 mortality in 2851 Chinese counties, 1996-2012: a subnational assessment of achieving MDG 4 goals in China.

9. Changes in health in England, with analysis by English regions and areas of deprivation, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

10. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990-2013: quantifying the epidemiological transition.

11. Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

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