Author: "Peter W. Gething" / Publisher: elsevier - Searchworks@Jio Institute Digital Library Search Results

9 results on '"Peter W. Gething"'

1. Mapping the global endemicity and clinical burden of Plasmodium vivax, 2000–17: a spatial and temporal modelling study

Author: Mohsen Naghavi, Ali H. Mokdad, Michael P Thorn, Peter W. Gething, Ric N. Price, Haidong Wang, Michele Nguyen, Michael Kutz, Grant Nguyen, Katya Anne Shackelford, Xie Rachel Kulikoff, Tim C.D. Lucas, Ursula Dalrymple, Anita Nandi, Daniel A. Pfeffer, Puja C Rao, Rosalind E. Howes, Alan D. Lopez, Ewan Cameron, Jennifer Rozier, Nancy Fullman, Daniel C Casey, Emma L. Collins, Harry S. Gibson, Chantal Huynh, Theo Vos, Samir Bhatt, Christopher J L Murray, Suzanne H. Keddie, Donal Bisanzio, J. Kevin Baird, Stephen S Lim, David L. Smith, Simon I. Hay, Daniel J. Weiss, Katherine E. Battle, Carlos A. Guerra, Katherine A. Twohig, and Joseph R Harris
Subjects: medicine.medical_specialty, Endemic Diseases, Oceania, Plasmodium vivax, Disease, 030204 cardiovascular system & hematology, Global Health, Article, 03 medical and health sciences, Medicine, General & Internal, MALARIA, Spatio-Temporal Analysis, 0302 clinical medicine, General & Internal Medicine, Epidemiology, parasitic diseases, Malaria, Vivax, medicine, Global health, Humans, 030212 general & internal medicine, Socioeconomic status, Asia, Southeastern, 11 Medical and Health Sciences, Science & Technology, biology, Incidence (epidemiology), 1. No poverty, Bayes Theorem, Plasmodium falciparum, General Medicine, biology.organism_classification, medicine.disease, 3. Good health, Geography, Population Surveillance, Africa, Americas, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, Malaria, Demography
Abstract: Summary Background Plasmodium vivax exacts a significant toll on health worldwide, yet few efforts to date have quantified the extent and temporal trends of its global distribution. Given the challenges associated with the proper diagnosis and treatment of P vivax , national malaria programmes—particularly those pursuing malaria elimination strategies—require up to date assessments of P vivax endemicity and disease impact. This study presents the first global maps of P vivax clinical burden from 2000 to 2017. Methods In this spatial and temporal modelling study, we adjusted routine malariometric surveillance data for known biases and used socioeconomic indicators to generate time series of the clinical burden of P vivax . These data informed Bayesian geospatial models, which produced fine-scale predictions of P vivax clinical incidence and infection prevalence over time. Within sub-Saharan Africa, where routine surveillance for P vivax is not standard practice, we combined predicted surfaces of Plasmodium falciparum with country-specific ratios of P vivax to P falciparum . These results were combined with surveillance-based outputs outside of Africa to generate global maps. Findings We present the first high-resolution maps of P vivax burden. These results are combined with those for P falciparum (published separately) to form the malaria estimates for the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study. The burden of P vivax malaria decreased by 41·6%, from 24·5 million cases (95% uncertainty interval 22·5–27·0) in 2000 to 14·3 million cases (13·7–15·0) in 2017. The Americas had a reduction of 56·8% (47·6–67·0) in total cases since 2000, while South-East Asia recorded declines of 50·5% (50·3–50·6) and the Western Pacific regions recorded declines of 51·3% (48·0–55·4). Europe achieved zero P vivax cases during the study period. Nonetheless, rates of decline have stalled in the past five years for many countries, with particular increases noted in regions affected by political and economic instability. Interpretation Our study highlights important spatial and temporal patterns in the clinical burden and prevalence of P vivax . Amid substantial progress worldwide, plateauing gains and areas of increased burden signal the potential for challenges that are greater than expected on the road to malaria elimination. These results support global monitoring systems and can inform the optimisation of diagnosis and treatment where P vivax has most impact. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Wellcome Trust.
Published: 2019

2. Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Author: Soufiane Boufous, Yousef Veisani, Mehran Asadi-Aliabadi, Sharath Burugina Nagaraja, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Getachew Mullu Kassa, Edward J Mills, Dimas Ria Angga Pribadi, William James Dangel, Mohamad-Hani Temsah, Catherine O. Johnson, Gregory A. Roth, Giuseppe Gorini, Fariborz Mansour-Ghanaei, Alberto Ortiz, Samad Azari, Assefa Ayalew Ayalew Ayalew Gebreslassie, Salime Goharinezhad, Stephanie R. M. Zimsen, Peng Zheng, Michael Assmus, Elisabetta Pupillo, Bach Xuan Tran, Lal B. Rawal, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Noushin Mohammadifard, Stephen S Lim, Ata Rafiee, Maria Inês Schmidt, Vincent C. Iannucci, Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo, Leah E. Cahill, Tauseef Ahmad, Platon D. Lopukhov, Kazumasa Yamagishi, Abdullah Al Mamun, Iqbal R. F. Elyazar, Giovanni Damiani, Mohammad Hossein Bakhshaei, Mehdi Fazlzadeh, Virginia Núñez-Samudio, Alyssa Pennini, Dietrich Plass, Atkilt Esaiyas Etisso, Gebre Teklemariam Demoz, Alexandrea Watson, Arvin Haj-Mirzaian, Paul S Briant, Frank B. Osei, Blair R. Bumgarner, Maciej Banach, Ravensara S. Travillian, Kai-Lan Chang, Shirin Djalalinia, Hasan Yusefzadeh, Silvano Gallus, Seyyed Meysam Mousavi, Bernhard T. Baune, Aaron van Donkelaar, Azeem Majeed, Hans Kromhout, Robert Ancuceanu, Blessing J. Akombi, Pushpendra Singh, Nayu Ikeda, William M. Gardner, Zahid A Butt, Mohammad Abdollahi, Temesgen Yihunie Akalu, Rahman Shiri, Benn Sartorius, Ai-Min Wu, Bing Fang Hwang, Flavia M. Cicuttini, Hiroyasu Iso, Luis Camera, Amin Soheili, Félix Carvalho, Yun Jin Kim, Caleb Mackay Salpeter Irvine, Mehdi Mirzaei-Alavijeh, Iman Halvaei, Saqib Ali, Giulio Castelpietra, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Ali Kazemi Karyani, Parkes J Kendrick, Hamidreza Haririan, Lucas Guimarães Abreu, Mukhammad David Naimzada, Jeff T. Zhao, Samiah Alam, Sorin Hostiuc, Shaun Wen Huey Lee, João Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia, Behzad Karami Matin, Cyrus Alinia, Takahiro Tabuchi, Manu Raj Mathur, Søren Thorgaard Skou, Thomas Khaled Dwayne Classen, Reza Heidari-Soureshjani, Massimo Cirillo, Nikita Otstavnov, Mehdi Bohluli, Ruth W. Kimokoti, Animut Tagele Tamiru, Masoumeh Sadeghi, Mohammad Ali Jahani, Itamar S. Santos, Mekdes Tigistu Yilma, Lars Johansson, Arielle Wilder Eagan, Nevine El Nahas, Silvia Schiavolin, Kevin D. Shield, Dinh-Toi Chu, Shiva Borzouei, Paul S. F. Yip, Beatrix Haddock, Gianfranco Alicandro, Vasily Vlassov, Deanna Anderlini, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Khalid A Altirkawi, Farahnaz Joukar, Aso Mohammad Darwesh, Ratilal Lalloo, Panniyammakal Jeemon, Rohollah Kalhor, Daniel Youngwhan Cho, Weijia Fu, João Pedro Silva, Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suarez, Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah, Mehdi Ahmadi, Jacob Olusegun Olusanya, José Neves, Gaorui Guo, Tomas Y. Yeheyis, John S. Ji, Charles D. H. Parry, Maryam Ghadimi, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Serge Resnikoff, Anna E. Torre, Vinod C Nayak, Jamileh Shadid, Susanne Breitner, Mohammad Khammarnia, Mathilde Touvier, Ensiyeh Jenabi, Hosna Janjani, Floriane Ausloos, Irmina Maria Michalek, Alexandra S. Boon-Dooley, Jessica A. Cruz, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Abiodun M. Adeoye, André Faro, Bartosz Miazgowski, Jobert Richie Nansseu, Erin C Mullany, Giannina Ferrara, Martin McKee, Emmanuel Peprah, Oommen John, Reza Saeedi, Yasser Vasseghian, Dragos Virgil Davitoiu, Sarah Wulf Hanson, Yingxi Zhao, Omid Shafaat, Ali Rajabpour-Sanati, Farid Najafi, Ana Maria Mantilla Herrera, Fatemeh Rajati, Tarun Gupta, Łukasz Szumowski, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Zhi Jiang Zhang, Osayomwanbo Osarenotor, Tanvir M. Huda, Perminder S. Sachdev, Farhad Ghamari, Era Upadhyay, Vivek Kumar, Guoqing Hu, Vinay Nangia, Vladimir Andreevich Korshunov, Saeed Shahabi, Golnaz Heidari, Ashraf Nabhan, Robert C. Reiner, Aziz Rezapour, Justin J. Lang, Rakhi Dandona, Josephine W. Ngunjiri, Anna-Karin Danielsson, André Karch, Filippo Ariani, Ahmed Abdelalim, Masih Tajdini, Stefanos Tyrovolas, Mohamed Hsairi, Jae Il Shin, Jasvinder A. Singh, Meghan D. Mooney, Fiona B. Bennitt, Hesam Alizade, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Pradhum Ram, Soraya Siabani, Evanson Z. Sambala, Reza Malekzadeh, Falk Schwendicke, Lalit Dandona, Masoud Moradi, Molly R Nixon, Roya Mirzaei, Rachel Feldman, Hosni Salem, Alberto L. García-Basteiro, Lorainne Tudor Car, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Ramesh Holla, Ritesh G. Menezes, Taraneh Yousefinezhadi, Hai Quang Pham, Hamideh Salimzadeh, Luisa Sorio Flor, Priya Rathi, Ali Bijani, Harvey Whiteford, Shanshan Li, Aleksandr Y. Aravkin, Joshua A. Salomon, Franz Castro, Lisa M. Force, Abdilahi Yousuf Yousuf, Mina Anjomshoa, Ken Takahashi, Maigeng Zhou, Telma Zahirian Moghadam, Maseer Khan, Irina Filip, Santi Martini, Randah R. Hamadeh, Somayeh Bohlouli, Joana Morgado-da-Costa, Tim Driscoll, Jingkai Wei, Hermann Brenner, Reza Rawassizadeh, Radoslaw Sierpinski, Saman Esmaeilnejad, Emmanuel Wandera Okunga, Marisa Freitas, Srikanta Banerjee, Feleke Mekonnen Demeke, Shahin Soltani, Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, Reed J D Sorensen, Elena V. Gnedovskaya, Johan Ärnlöv, Ivo Rakovac, Reza Mohammadpourhodki, Hussain Jafari, Atte Meretoja, Yasir Waheed, Fahad Alanezi, Arya Haj-Mirzaian, Sezer Kisa, Jaifred Christian F. Lopez, Khalid F. Alhabib, Basema Saddik, Michael R. Phillips, Vishnu Renjith, Yafeng Wang, Kevan R. Polkinghorne, Liliana G Ciobanu, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Gelin Xu, Richard C. Franklin, Junjie Wu, Thomas R. Hird, Mohammad Zamani, Diana Silva, Fotis Topouzis, Irena Ilic, Jeffrey D. Stanaway, Hadi Pourjafar, Huong Lan Thi Nguyen, Khaled Khatab, Ammas Siraj Mohammed, Ziyad Al-Aly, A. A. Fomenkov, Charlie Ashbaugh, Mowafa Househ, Paul I. Dargan, Endalkachew Worku Mengesha, Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary, Ernoiz Antriyandarti, Iffat Elbarazi, Dara K. Mohammad, Naznin Hossain, Reza Shirkoohi, João M. Furtado, Arash Ziapour, Morteza Jafarinia, M. Mofizul Islam, Anamika Pandey, Ahmed I. Hasaballah, Tanuj Kanchan, Lee Ling Lim, Muktar Omer Omer, Charles D.A. Wolfe, Ulrich O Mueller, Helen Bitew, V. Prakash, Fereshteh Mehri, Randall V. Martin, Claudiu Herteliu, Constance D. Pond, Min Jeong Shin, Morteza Oladnabi, Antonio Maria Borzì, Yousef Mohammad, Yuichiro Yano, Luke D. Knibbs, Kevin S Ikuta, Maryam Mirzaei, Andreea Mirica, Sofia Boston Redford, Siamak Sabour, Mariya Vladimirovna Titova, Davood Anvari, Ghobad Moradi, Jordi Alonso, Shiwei Liu, Theo Vos, Tuomo J. Meretoja, Ireneous N. Soyiri, Owen R. Cooper, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Kejia Hu, Hannah J. Henrikson, Sanni Yaya, Robert P. Dellavalle, Chidozie Declan Iwu, Sergey Soshnikov, Jee-Young Jasmine Choi, Satinath Mukhopadhyay, Zabihollah Yousefi, Iman El Sayed, Biresaw Wassihun Alemu, Neeti Kapoor, Ahmad Daryani, Cathleen Keller, Ibrahim Abdollahpour, Nuno Taveira, Masoud Foroutan, Fatemeh Amiri, Mariam Molokhia, Songhomitra Panda-Jonas, Amy E. Peden, Rufus Akinyemi, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Mostafa Amini-Rarani, J. Becker, Hamidreza Pazoki Toroudi, Ben Lacey, Kidanemaryam Berhe, Simon Yadgir, Spencer L. James, Cory N. Spencer, Aletta E. Schutte, Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi, Govinda Prasad Dhungana, Fereshteh Ansari, Rixing Xu, Jonathan F. Mosser, Josep Maria Haro, Enrico Rubagotti, Anurag Agrawal, Zahiruddin Quazi Syed, Hoa Thi Do, Ettore Beghi, Seyed Mohammad Kazem Aghamir, Abraham Geremew, Alireza Esteghamati, Paramjit Gill, Farzad Jalilian, J. Jason West, Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin, Albertino Damasceno, Bruce Bartholow Duncan, Nazir Fattahi, Daniel Cury Ribeiro, Michael Brauer, Mark A. Stokes, Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito, Lidia Morawska, Fiona J Charlson, Babak Moazen, Dejana Braithwaite, Jonathan M. Kocarnik, Sergio I. Prada, Andrea Farioli, Zahra Atafar, Heather Orpana, Daniela Balzi, Marco Vacante, Rahmatollah Moradzadeh, Jacek A. Kopec, Iván Landires, Robert G. Weintraub, Leonardo Roever, Yannick Béjot, Markus P. Schlaich, Hamed Zandian, Subramanian Senthilkumaran, Klara Dokova, Vahid Alipour, Sowmya J. Rao, Rakesh Ghosh, Omar Mukhtar Salman, Faris Lami, Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone, Hamid Reza Tohidinik, Seyed Mohammad Riahi, Adnan Kisa, Ghasem Azarian, Caroline Stein, Zulfiqar A. Bhutta, Sinead Langan, Kunihiro Matsushita, Lauren E. Schaeffer, Kathryn H. Jacobsen, Mehdi Naderi, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Nizal Sarrafzadegan, Bahram Armoon, Dan J. Stein, Jessica Fanzo, Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan, Luca Ronfani, Phetole Walter Mahasha, Nicholas J K Breitborde, Adrian Oţoiu, Arash Sarveazad, Marc L. Serre, Mostafa Hosseini, Nicolas Cherbuin, George D. Thurston, Jalal Arabloo, Mokhtar Mahdavi, Andre Rodrigues Duraes, Ana Laura Manda, Ahmed Abualhasan, Nima Rezaei, Yuan-Pang Wang, Theodore Patrick Younker, Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam, Borhan Mansouri, Adam E. Berman, Khezar Hayat, Rosario Cárdenas, Bolajoko O. Olusanya, Tommi Vasankari, Simon I. Hay, Fatemeh Ghaffarifar, Leo Stockfelt, Ai Koyanagi, Giorgia Giussani, Yuming Guo, Sonia Saxena, Deborah Carvalho Malta, Mehedi Hasan, Negar Rezaei, Maja Pasovic, Jukka Takala, Bogdan Oancea, Sare Safi, A. Werdecker, Florian Fischer, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed, Takeshi Fukumoto, Maha Atout, Brijesh Sathian, Cristina Bosetti, Mitchell T. Wallin, Agegnehu Bante, Helen Ippolito, Anthony Masaka, Chantal Huynh, Justin Lo, Jordan Weiss, Joemer C. Maravilla, Alberto Raggi, Peter W. Gething, Cristiana Abbafati, Daniela Ribeiro, Mohammad Farahmand, Yetunde O. John-Akinola, Isabela M. Benseñor, Emilie R Maddison, John J. McGrath, Salman Khazaei, Scott B. Patten, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Emmanuela Gakidou, Celine M. Barthelemy, Ashish Badiye, George C. Patton, Obinna Onwujekwe, Peter Allebeck, Victor Aboyans, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Mousa Yaminfirooz, Neeraj Bedi, Nicholas L S Roberts, Joht Singh Chandan, Hans W. Hoek, Usman Iqbal, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, Haley Lescinsky, Naohiro Yonemoto, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Anders Larsson, David C. Schwebel, Milena Ilic, Richard T. Burnett, Yang Liu, Carlo La Vecchia, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, Morteza Naserbakht, Sangram Kishor Patel, Melanie S. Hammer, Prasanna Mithra, Mohammad Amin Bahrami, Kanyin L. Ong, Mona Pathak, Afshin Maleki, Saeid Safiri, Masood Ali Shaikh, Kate Causey, Michael R.M. Abrigo, Jost B. Jonas, Dian Kusuma, Jagadish Rao Padubidri, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Ali S. Shalash, Abdiwahab Hashi, Ionut Negoi, Nataliya A. Foigt, Andrey Nikolaevich Briko, François Alla, Giuseppe Grosso, Houman Goudarzi, Di H. Cross, Vera Marisa Costa, Eduarda Fernandes, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Odgerel Chimed-Ochir, Sonia Rodríguez-Ramírez, Bo Norrving, Kerem Shuval, Jacob L. Stubbs, Muhammad Ali, Shuhei Nomura, Man Mohan Mehndiratta, Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna, Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Navid Rabiee, Dana Bryazka, Hussen Mohammed, Asadollah Gholamian, Ashley Marks, Rizwan Kalani, Molly E. Herbert, Islam Y. Elgendy, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Chuanhua Yu, Suzanne Polinder, Pascual R. Valdez, Jennifer Rickard, Kylie Ball, Turki Alanzi, Mohsen Bayati, Hamed Mirzaei, Christopher M Odell, Amira Shaheen, Ziad A. Memish, Thirunavukkarasu Sathish, Michael A. Piradov, Hamed Kalani, Lorenzo Monasta, Christopher S Yilgwan, Desalegn Getnet Demsie, Riaz Uddin, Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Vinay Srinivasan, Hamid Ahmadieh, Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes, Raffaele Palladino, Chukwudi A Nnaji, Mika Shigematsu, Stein Emil Vollset, Abbas Sheikhtaheri, Paulo A. Lotufo, Nasir Salam, Binyam Minuye Birihane, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Tomislav Mestrovic, Samer Hamidi, Rajesh Sagar, Mayowa O. Owolabi, Kara Estep, Ester Cerin, Michael T. Chung, Simon Øverland, Amir Taherkhani, Sheng Chia Chung, Martin Amogre Ayanore, Nikolaos Dervenis, Joan B. Soriano, Tahereh Javaheri, Victor Adekanmbi, Seid Tiku Mereta, Gbenga A. Kayode, Christopher R. Cederroth, Razique Anwer, Rajan Nikbakhsh, Kaja Abbas, Fatemeh Heydarpour, Louisa Degenhardt, Tahiya Alam, Mohammad Miri, Alibek Mereke, David Laith Rawaf, Ippazio Cosimo Antonazzo, Erkin M. Mirrakhimov, Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari, Desta Debalkie Atnafu, Davide Sattin, Moslem Soofi, Edris Hasanpoor, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Mika Kivimäki, Nikolay Ivanovich Briko, Joanna L Whisnant, Christopher J L Murray, Simin Mouodi, Alize J. Ferrari, Damian Santomauro, Katrin Burkart, Tudorel Andrei, Alberto Baldasseroni, Hafiz Ansar Rasul Suleria, Valery L. Feigin, Nauman Khalid, Ewerton Cousin, S. Mohammad Sajadi, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo, Shankar M Bakkannavar, Themba G.G. Ginindza, Sadaf G. Sepanlou, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Sanjay Basu, Getinet Ayano, Paula Moraga, Soheil Hassanipour, Jason A. Anderson, Catherine Bisignano, Iyad Sultan, Deepak Kumar Pasupula, Keivan Ahmadi, Fariba Dorostkar, Rajeev Gupta, David M. Pereira, Mustafa Z. Younis, Adel Spotin, Rasmus Havmoeller, Yeshambel T. Nigatu, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, Mithila Faruque, Alan D. Lopez, Shailesh Advani, Behshad Naghshtabrizi, Shane D. Morrison, Inga Dora Sigfusdottir, Konrad Pesudovs, Anna Gershberg Hayoon, Raaj Kishore Biswas, Reshmi Bhageerathy, H. Dean Hosgood, Giulia Carreras, Sarika Chaturvedi, James L. Fisher, In-Hwan Oh, G Anil Kumar, Christoph Nowak, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Puja C Rao, Marcel Ausloos, Ali Kabir, Rannveig Sigurvinsdottir, Leeberk Raja Inbaraj, Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez, Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos, Minh Nguyen, Ashkan Afshin, Payman Salamati, Colin Angus, Mona M. Khater, Ehsan Sadeghi, Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib, Antonio Biondi, Valentin Yurievich Skryabin, Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari, Andrew T Olagunju, Amir Radfar, Laith J. Abu-Raddad, Marcello Tonelli, Hesam Ghiasvand, Hanne Christensen, Juan Jesus Carrero, Maryam Adabi, Saravanan Muthupandian, Kurt Straif, Hossein Samadi Kafil, Lope H Barrero, Harish Chander Gugnani, Mohammad Fareed, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Jemal Abdu Mohammed, Juan A Rivera, Shai Linn, Saad M.A. Dahlawi, Janni Leung, Shokofeh Maleki, Mohd Anisul Karim, Kamarul Imran Musa, Farshad Pourmalek, Dietrich Rothenbacher, Kiomars Sharafi, Alessandra C. Goulart, Leila Doshmangir, Gabriele Nagel, Helena Manguerra, Olatunji O. Adetokunboh, Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi, Nermin Ghith, Maha El Tantawi, Awoke Misganaw, Yunquan Zhang, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Vahid Rashedi, Mehran Shams-Beyranvand, Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan, Holly E. Erskine, Ann Kristin Knudsen, Marissa B Reitsma, Getayeneh Antehunegn Tesema, Javad Javidnia, Ismael R. Campos-Nonato, Biniyam Sahiledengle Geberemariyam, Godfrey Mutashambara Rwegerera, Alaa Badawi, James Leigh, Morteza Arab-Zozani, Kyle E. Simpson, Muluken Bekele Sorrie, Roghiyeh Faridnia, Vivekanand Jha, Tomasz Miazgowski, Aaron J Cohen, Chukwuma David Umeokonkwo, Alessandra Lugo, Adhanom Gebreegziabher Baraki, Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula, Caitlyn Steiner, Gholamreza Roshandel, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Tania G Sánchez-Pimienta, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Laura Kemmer, Ihoghosa Osamuyi Iyamu, Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi, Vivian Chia-Rong Hsieh, Kris J. Krohn, Phoebe Anne Rhinehart, Sarah Wozniak, Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam, Kate E. LeGrand, Christian Kieling, Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi, Robin Room, Zelalem Nigussie Azene, Kelly Cercy, Paul H. Lee, Stanislav S. Otstavnov, Dinesh Bhandari, Rafael Alves Guimarães, Zemenu Tadesse Tessema, Aziz Sheikh, Michellr L. Bell, Marwa Rashad Salem, Kirsten E. Wiens, Emma U.R. Smith, Hassan Abolhassani, Cristiano Piccinelli, Kedir Hussein Abegaz, G.K. Mini, Christian Razo, Manuela L. Ferreira, Diego De Leo, Francesco Saverio Violante, Aristidis Tsatsakis, Zahra Sadat Dibaji Forooshani, Tea Lallukka, Dickson A. Amugsi, Anna Poznańska, Graeme J. Hankey, Kewal Krishan, Maryam Zamanian, Eirini Skiadaresi, Jai K Das, Felix Greaves, Tessa M. Pilz, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Mansour Ghafourifard, M. DeLang, Morteza Mahmoudi, Alton Lu, Brian J. Hall, Ravi Prakash Jha, David Edvardsson, Xiu Ju George Zhao, Farshad Farzadfar, Hadi Hassankhani, Samuel M. Ostroff, Gerhard Sulo, Keyghobad Ghadiri, Neeraj Bhala, Stefan Lorkowski, Mohammad Rabiee, Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer Saraswathy, Amirhossein Sahebkar, Rashid Abdi Guled, Abdallah M. Samy, Roman Topor-Madry, Michal Grivna, Afsaneh Arzani, Ayesha Humayun, Simin Liu, Maryam Khayamzadeh, Davoud Adham, Ahad Bakhtiari, Shafiu Mohammed, Paolo Lauriola, Abbas Mosapour, Sophia Emmons-Bell, Khurshid Alam, Rajat Das Gupta, Matilde Leonardi, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Jeffrey V. Lazarus, Mohamed M. Gad, Kelly Compton, Leila R Kalankesh, Abdelrahman Ibrahim Abushouk, Mikk Jürisson, Catherine M. Antony, Ali A. Asadi-Pooya, Daniel Diaz, Salman Rawaf, Gina Agarwal, Ted R. Miller, Rebecca Ivers, João Vasco Santos, Savita Lasrado, Abdul Moiz Hafiz, Amir Almasi-Hashiani, Praveen Hoogar, Fares Alahdab, Om P Kurmi, Anbissa Muleta Senbeta, Tomi Akinyemiju, Boris Bikbov, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Amin Mousavi Khaneghah, Yahya Safari, Guilherme Borges, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Kenji Shibuya, Bahman Yousefi, Berrin Serdar, Karen M. Tabb, Sonali Kochhar, Till Bärnighausen, Kala M. Mehta, Mostafa Dianatinasab, Arash Etemadi, Melissa Y. Wei, Kiana Ramezanzadeh, Lingkan Barua, Zubair Kabir, Rade Vukovic, Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi, Shoshana H. Ballew, Miriam Levi, Zainab Samad, Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos, Juan Sanabria, Ramu Rawat, Chinwe Juliana Iwu, Gabrielle B. Britton, Colm McAlinden, Mohsen Naghavi, Maarten J. Postma, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Jalil Jaafari, Walter Mendoza, Mahesh P A, Pallab K. Maulik, Ali H. Mokdad, Andre M. N. Renzaho, Milena Santric-Milicevic, Parvaiz A Koul, Foad Abd-Allah, Mihaela Hostiuc, Richard G. Cowden, Ronny Westerman, Meghdad Pirsaheb, Department of Earth Observation Science, UT-I-ITC-ACQUAL, Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation, Real World Studies in PharmacoEpidemiology, -Genetics, -Economics and -Therapy (PEGET), Value, Affordability and Sustainability (VALUE), Microbes in Health and Disease (MHD), Tampere University, Tays Research Services, Health Sciences, Murray, C. J. L., Aravkin, A. Y., Zheng, P., Abbafati, C., Abbas, K. M., Abbasi-Kangevari, M., Abd-Allah, F., Abdelalim, A., Abdollahi, M., Abdollahpour, I., Abegaz, K. H., Abolhassani, H., Aboyans, V., Abreu, L. G., Abrigo, M. R. M., Abualhasan, A., Abu-Raddad, L. J., Abushouk, A. I., Adabi, M., Adekanmbi, V., Adeoye, A. M., Adetokunboh, O. O., Adham, D., Advani, S. M., Agarwal, G., Aghamir, S. M. K., Agrawal, A., Ahmad, T., Ahmadi, K., Ahmadi, M., Ahmadieh, H., Ahmed, M. B., Akalu, T. Y., Akinyemi, R. O., Akinyemiju, T., Akombi, B., Akunna, C. J., Alahdab, F., Al-Aly, Z., Alam, K., Alam, S., Alam, T., Alanezi, F. M., Alanzi, T. M., Alemu, B. W., Alhabib, K. F., Ali, M., Ali, S., Alicandro, G., Alinia, C., Alipour, V., Alizade, H., Aljunid, S. M., Alla, F., Allebeck, P., Almasi-Hashiani, A., Al-Mekhlafi, H. M., Alonso, J., Altirkawi, K. A., Amini-Rarani, M., Amiri, F., Amugsi, D. A., Ancuceanu, R., Anderlini, D., Anderson, J. A., Andrei, C. L., Andrei, T., Angus, C., Anjomshoa, M., Ansari, F., Ansari-Moghaddam, A., Antonazzo, I. C., Antonio, C. A. T., Antony, C. M., Antriyandarti, E., Anvari, D., Anwer, R., Appiah, S. C. Y., Arabloo, J., Arab-Zozani, M., Ariani, F., Armoon, B., Arnlov, J., Arzani, A., Asadi-Aliabadi, M., Asadi-Pooya, A. A., Ashbaugh, C., Assmus, M., Atafar, Z., Atnafu, D. D., Atout, M. M. W., Ausloos, F., Ausloos, M., Ayala Quintanilla, B. P., Ayano, G., Ayanore, M. A., Azari, S., Azarian, G., Azene, Z. N., Badawi, A., Badiye, A. D., Bahrami, M. A., Bakhshaei, M. H., Bakhtiari, A., Bakkannavar, S. M., Baldasseroni, A., Ball, K., Ballew, S. H., Balzi, D., Banach, M., Banerjee, S. K., Bante, A. B., Baraki, A. G., Barker-Collo, S. L., Barnighausen, T. W., Barrero, L. H., Barthelemy, C. M., Barua, L., Basu, S., Baune, B. T., Bayati, M., Becker, J. S., Bedi, N., Beghi, E., Bejot, Y., Bell, M. L., Bennitt, F. B., Bensenor, I. M., Berhe, K., Berman, A. E., Bhagavathula, A. S., Bhageerathy, R., Bhala, N., Bhandari, D., Bhattacharyya, K., Bhutta, Z. A., Bijani, A., Bikbov, B., Bin Sayeed, M. S., Biondi, A., Birihane, B. M., Bisignano, C., Biswas, R. K., Bitew, H., Bohlouli, S., Bohluli, M., Boon-Dooley, A. S., Borges, G., Borzi, A. M., Borzouei, S., Bosetti, C., Boufous, S., Braithwaite, D., Breitborde, N. J. K., Breitner, S., Brenner, H., Briant, P. S., Briko, A. N., Briko, N. I., Britton, G. B., Bryazka, D., Bumgarner, B. R., Burkart, K., Burnett, R. T., Burugina Nagaraja, S., Butt, Z. A., Caetano dos Santos, F. L., Cahill, L. E., Camera, L. L. A., Campos-Nonato, I. R., Cardenas, R., Carreras, G., Carrero, J. J., Carvalho, F., Castaldelli-Maia, J. M., Castaneda-Orjuela, C. A., Castelpietra, G., Castro, F., Causey, K., Cederroth, C. R., Cercy, K. M., Cerin, E., Chandan, J. S., Chang, K. -L., Charlson, F. J., Chattu, V. K., Chaturvedi, S., Cherbuin, N., Chimed-Ochir, O., Cho, D. Y., Choi, J. -Y. J., Christensen, H., Chu, D. -T., Chung, M. T., Chung, S. -C., Cicuttini, F. M., Ciobanu, L. G., Cirillo, M., Classen, T. K. D., Cohen, A. J., Compton, K., Cooper, O. R., Costa, V. M., Cousin, E., Cowden, R. G., Cross, D. H., Cruz, J. A., Dahlawi, S. M. A., Damasceno, A. A. M., Damiani, G., Dandona, L., Dandona, R., Dangel, W. J., Danielsson, A. -K., Dargan, P. I., Darwesh, A. M., Daryani, A., Das, J. K., Das Gupta, R., das Neves, J., Davila-Cervantes, C. A., Davitoiu, D. V., De Leo, D., Degenhardt, L., Delang, M., Dellavalle, R. P., Demeke, F. M., Demoz, G. T., Demsie, D. G., Denova-Gutierrez, E., Dervenis, N., Dhungana, G. P., Dianatinasab, M., Dias da Silva, D., Diaz, D., Dibaji Forooshani, Z. S., Djalalinia, S., Do, H. T., Dokova, K., Dorostkar, F., Doshmangir, L., Driscoll, T. R., Duncan, B. B., Duraes, A. R., Eagan, A. W., Edvardsson, D., El Nahas, N., El Sayed, I., El Tantawi, M., Elbarazi, I., Elgendy, I. Y., El-Jaafary, S. I., Elyazar, I. R., Emmons-Bell, S., Erskine, H. E., Eskandarieh, S., Esmaeilnejad, S., Esteghamati, A., Estep, K., Etemadi, A., Etisso, A. E., Fanzo, J., Farahmand, M., Fareed, M., Faridnia, R., Farioli, A., Faro, A., Faruque, M., Farzadfar, F., Fattahi, N., Fazlzadeh, M., Feigin, V. L., Feldman, R., Fereshtehnejad, S. -M., Fernandes, E., Ferrara, G., Ferrari, A. J., Ferreira, M. L., Filip, I., Fischer, F., Fisher, J. L., Flor, L. S., Foigt, N. A., Folayan, M. O., Fomenkov, A. A., Force, L. M., Foroutan, M., Franklin, R. C., Freitas, M., Fu, W., Fukumoto, T., Furtado, J. M., Gad, M. M., Gakidou, E., Gallus, S., Garcia-Basteiro, A. L., Gardner, W. M., Geberemariyam, B. S., Gebreslassie, A. A. A. A., Geremew, A., Gershberg Hayoon, A., Gething, P. W., Ghadimi, M., Ghadiri, K., Ghaffarifar, F., Ghafourifard, M., Ghamari, F., Ghashghaee, A., Ghiasvand, H., Ghith, N., Gholamian, A., Ghosh, R., Gill, P. S., Ginindza, T. G. G., Giussani, G., Gnedovskaya, E. V., Goharinezhad, S., Gopalani, S. V., Gorini, G., Goudarzi, H., Goulart, A. C., Greaves, F., Grivna, M., Grosso, G., Gubari, M. I. M., Gugnani, H. C., Guimaraes, R. A., Guled, R. A., Guo, G., Guo, Y., Gupta, R., Gupta, T., Haddock, B., Hafezi-Nejad, N., Hafiz, A., Haj-Mirzaian, A., Hall, B. J., Halvaei, I., Hamadeh, R. R., Hamidi, S., Hammer, M. S., Hankey, G. J., Haririan, H., Haro, J. M., Hasaballah, A. I., Hasan, M. M., Hasanpoor, E., Hashi, A., Hassanipour, S., Hassankhani, H., Havmoeller, R. J., Hay, S. I., Hayat, K., Heidari, G., Heidari-Soureshjani, R., Henrikson, H. J., Herbert, M. E., Herteliu, C., Heydarpour, F., Hird, T. R., Hoek, H. W., Holla, R., Hoogar, P., Hosgood, H. D., Hossain, N., Hosseini, M., Hosseinzadeh, M., Hostiuc, M., Hostiuc, S., Househ, M., Hsairi, M., Hsieh, V. C. -R., Hu, G., Hu, K., Huda, T. M., Humayun, A., Huynh, C. K., Hwang, B. -F., Iannucci, V. C., Ibitoye, S. E., Ikeda, N., Ikuta, K. S., Ilesanmi, O. S., Ilic, I. M., Ilic, M. D., Inbaraj, L. R., Ippolito, H., Iqbal, U., Irvani, S. S. N., Irvine, C. M. S., Islam, M. M., Islam, S. M. S., Iso, H., Ivers, R. Q., Iwu, C. C. D., Iwu, C. J., Iyamu, I. O., Jaafari, J., Jacobsen, K. H., Jafari, H., Jafarinia, M., Jahani, M. A., Jakovljevic, M., Jalilian, F., James, S. L., Janjani, H., Javaheri, T., Javidnia, J., Jeemon, P., Jenabi, E., Jha, R. P., Jha, V., Ji, J. S., Johansson, L., John, O., John-Akinola, Y. O., Johnson, C. O., Jonas, J. B., Joukar, F., Jozwiak, J. J., Jurisson, M., Kabir, A., Kabir, Z., Kalani, H., Kalani, R., Kalankesh, L. R., Kalhor, R., Kanchan, T., Kapoor, N., Karami Matin, B., Karch, A., Karim, M. A., Kassa, G. M., Katikireddi, S. V., Kayode, G. A., Kazemi Karyani, A., Keiyoro, P. N., Keller, C., Kemmer, L., Kendrick, P. J., Khalid, N., Khammarnia, M., Khan, E. A., Khan, M., Khatab, K., Khater, M. M., Khatib, M. N., Khayamzadeh, M., Khazaei, S., Kieling, C., Kim, Y. J., Kimokoti, R. W., Kisa, A., Kisa, S., Kivimaki, M., Knibbs, L. D., Knudsen, A. K. S., Kocarnik, J. M., Kochhar, S., Kopec, J. A., Korshunov, V. A., Koul, P. A., Koyanagi, A., Kraemer, M. U. G., Krishan, K., Krohn, K. J., Kromhout, H., Kuate Defo, B., Kumar, G. A., Kumar, V., Kurmi, O. P., Kusuma, D., La Vecchia, C., Lacey, B., Lal, D. K., Lalloo, R., Lallukka, T., Lami, F. H., Landires, I., Lang, J. J., Langan, S. M., Larsson, A. O., Lasrado, S., Lauriola, P., Lazarus, J. V., Lee, P. H., Lee, S. W. H., Legrand, K. E., Leigh, J., Leonardi, M., Lescinsky, H., Leung, J., Levi, M., Li, S., Lim, L. -L., Linn, S., Liu, S., Liu, Y., Lo, J., Lopez, A. D., Lopez, J. C. F., Lopukhov, P. D., Lorkowski, S., Lotufo, P. A., Lu, A., Lugo, A., Maddison, E. R., Mahasha, P. W., Mahdavi, M. M., Mahmoudi, M., Majeed, A., Maleki, A., Maleki, S., Malekzadeh, R., Malta, D. C., Mamun, A. A., Manda, A. L., Manguerra, H., Mansour-Ghanaei, F., Mansouri, B., Mansournia, M. A., Mantilla Herrera, A. M., Maravilla, J. C., Marks, A., Martin, R. V., Martini, S., Martins-Melo, F. R., Masaka, A., Masoumi, S. Z., Mathur, M. R., Matsushita, K., Maulik, P. K., Mcalinden, C., Mcgrath, J. J., Mckee, M., Mehndiratta, M. M., Mehri, F., Mehta, K. M., Memish, Z. A., Mendoza, W., Menezes, R. G., Mengesha, E. W., Mereke, A., Mereta, S. T., Meretoja, A., Meretoja, T. J., Mestrovic, T., Miazgowski, B., Miazgowski, T., Michalek, I. M., Miller, T. R., Mills, E. J., Mini, G. K., Miri, M., Mirica, A., Mirrakhimov, E. M., Mirzaei, H., Mirzaei, M., Mirzaei, R., Mirzaei-Alavijeh, M., Misganaw, A. T., Mithra, P., Moazen, B., Mohammad, D. K., Mohammad, Y., Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, N., Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A., Mohammadifard, N., Mohammadpourhodki, R., Mohammed, A. S., Mohammed, H., Mohammed, J. A., Mohammed, S., Mokdad, A. H., Molokhia, M., Monasta, L., Mooney, M. D., Moradi, G., Moradi, M., Moradi-Lakeh, M., Moradzadeh, R., Moraga, P., Morawska, L., Morgado-da-Costa, J., Morrison, S. D., Mosapour, A., Mosser, J. F., Mouodi, S., Mousavi, S. M., Mousavi Khaneghah, A., Mueller, U. O., Mukhopadhyay, S., Mullany, E. C., Musa, K. I., Muthupandian, S., Nabhan, A. F., Naderi, M., Nagarajan, A. J., Nagel, G., Naghavi, M., Naghshtabrizi, B., Naimzada, M. D., Najafi, F., Nangia, V., Nansseu, J. R., Naserbakht, M., Nayak, V. C., Negoi, I., Ngunjiri, J. W., Nguyen, C. T., Nguyen, H. L. T., Nguyen, M., Nigatu, Y. T., Nikbakhsh, R., Nixon, M. R., Nnaji, C. A., Nomura, S., Norrving, B., Noubiap, J. J., Nowak, C., Nunez-Samudio, V., Otoiu, A., Oancea, B., Odell, C. M., Ogbo, F. A., Oh, I. -H., Okunga, E. W., Oladnabi, M., Olagunju, A. T., Olusanya, B. O., Olusanya, J. O., Omer, M. O., Ong, K. L., Onwujekwe, O. E., Orpana, H. M., Ortiz, A., Osarenotor, O., Osei, F. B., Ostroff, S. M., Otstavnov, N., Otstavnov, S. S., Overland, S., Owolabi, M. O., P A, M., Padubidri, J. R., Palladino, R., Panda-Jonas, S., Pandey, A., Parry, C. D. H., Pasovic, M., Pasupula, D. K., Patel, S. K., Pathak, M., Patten, S. B., Patton, G. C., Pazoki Toroudi, H., Peden, A. E., Pennini, A., Pepito, V. C. F., Peprah, E. K., Pereira, D. M., Pesudovs, K., Pham, H. Q., Phillips, M. R., Piccinelli, C., Pilz, T. M., Piradov, M. A., Pirsaheb, M., Plass, D., Polinder, S., Polkinghorne, K. R., Pond, C. D., Postma, M. J., Pourjafar, H., Pourmalek, F., Poznanska, A., Prada, S. I., Prakash, V., Pribadi, D. R. A., Pupillo, E., Quazi Syed, Z., Rabiee, M., Rabiee, N., Radfar, A., Rafiee, A., Raggi, A., Rahman, M. A., Rajabpour-Sanati, A., Rajati, F., Rakovac, I., Ram, P., Ramezanzadeh, K., Ranabhat, C. L., Rao, P. C., Rao, S. J., Rashedi, V., Rathi, P., Rawaf, D. L., Rawaf, S., Rawal, L., Rawassizadeh, R., Rawat, R., Razo, C., Redford, S. B., Reiner, R. C., Reitsma, M. B., Remuzzi, G., Renjith, V., Renzaho, A. M. N., Resnikoff, S., Rezaei, N., Rezapour, A., Rhinehart, P. -A., Riahi, S. M., Ribeiro, D. C., Ribeiro, D., Rickard, J., Rivera, J. A., Roberts, N. L. S., Rodriguez-Ramirez, S., Roever, L., Ronfani, L., Room, R., Roshandel, G., Roth, G. A., Rothenbacher, D., Rubagotti, E., Rwegerera, G. M., Sabour, S., Sachdev, P. S., Saddik, B., Sadeghi, E., Sadeghi, M., Saeedi, R., Saeedi Moghaddam, S., Safari, Y., Safi, S., Safiri, S., Sagar, R., Sahebkar, A., Sajadi, S. M., Salam, N., Salamati, P., Salem, H., Salem, M. R. R., Salimzadeh, H., Salman, O. M., Salomon, J. A., Samad, Z., Samadi Kafil, H., Sambala, E. Z., Samy, A. M., Sanabria, J., Sanchez-Pimienta, T. G., Santomauro, D. F., Santos, I. S., Santos, J. V., Santric-Milicevic, M. M., Saraswathy, S. Y. I., Sarmiento-Suarez, R., Sarrafzadegan, N., Sartorius, B., Sarveazad, A., Sathian, B., Sathish, T., Sattin, D., Saxena, S., Schaeffer, L. E., Schiavolin, S., Schlaich, M. P., Schmidt, M. I., Schutte, A. E., Schwebel, D. C., Schwendicke, F., Senbeta, A. M., Senthilkumaran, S., Sepanlou, S. G., Serdar, B., Serre, M. L., Shadid, J., Shafaat, O., Shahabi, S., Shaheen, A. A., Shaikh, M. A., Shalash, A. S., Shams-Beyranvand, M., Shamsizadeh, M., Sharafi, K., Sheikh, A., Sheikhtaheri, A., Shibuya, K., Shield, K. D., Shigematsu, M., Shin, J. I., Shin, M. -J., Shiri, R., Shirkoohi, R., Shuval, K., Siabani, S., Sierpinski, R., Sigfusdottir, I. D., Sigurvinsdottir, R., Silva, J. P., Simpson, K. E., Singh, J. A., Singh, P., Skiadaresi, E., Skou, S. T. S., Skryabin, V. Y., Smith, E. U. R., Soheili, A., Soltani, S., Soofi, M., Sorensen, R. J. D., Soriano, J. B., Sorrie, M. B., Soshnikov, S., Soyiri, I. N., Spencer, C. N., Spotin, A., Sreeramareddy, C. T., Srinivasan, V., Stanaway, J. D., Stein, C., Stein, D. J., Steiner, C., Stockfelt, L., Stokes, M. A., Straif, K., Stubbs, J. L., Sufiyan, M. B., Suleria, H. A. R., Suliankatchi Abdulkader, R., Sulo, G., Sultan, I., Szumowski, Tabares-Seisdedos, R., Tabb, K. M., Tabuchi, T., Taherkhani, A., Tajdini, M., Takahashi, K., Takala, J. S., Tamiru, A. T., Taveira, N., Tehrani-Banihashemi, A., Temsah, M. -H., Tesema, G. A., Tessema, Z. T., Thurston, G. D., Titova, M. V., Tohidinik, H. R., Tonelli, M., Topor-Madry, R., Topouzis, F., Torre, A. E., Touvier, M., Tovani-Palone, M. R. R., Tran, B. X., Travillian, R., Tsatsakis, A., Tudor Car, L., Tyrovolas, S., Uddin, R., Umeokonkwo, C. D., Unnikrishnan, B., Upadhyay, E., Vacante, M., Valdez, P. R., van Donkelaar, A., Vasankari, T. J., Vasseghian, Y., Veisani, Y., Venketasubramanian, N., Violante, F. S., Vlassov, V., Vollset, S. E., Vos, T., Vukovic, R., Waheed, Y., Wallin, M. 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S., Lacey, B, Sartorius, B, Abbafati, C, Abbas, K, Abbasi-Kangevari, M, Abd-Allah, F, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahi, M, Abdollahpour, I, Abegaz, K, Abolhassani, H, Aboyans, V, Abreu, L, Abrigo, M, Abualhasan, A, Abu-Raddad, L, Abushouk, A, Adabi, M, Adekanmbi, V, Adeoye, A, Adetokunboh, O, Adham, D, Advani, S, Afshin, A, Agarwal, G, Aghamir, S, Agrawal, A, Ahmad, T, Ahmadi, K, Ahmadi, M, Ahmadieh, H, Ahmed, M, Akalu, T, Akinyemi, R, Akinyemiju, T, Akombi, B, Akunna, C, Alahdab, F, Al-Aly, Z, Alam, K, Alam, S, Alam, T, Alanezi, F, Alanzi, T, Alemu, B, Alhabib, K, Ali, M, Ali, S, Alicandro, G, Alinia, C, Alipour, V, Alizade, H, Aljunid, S, Alla, F, Allebeck, P, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Al-Mekhlafi, H, Alonso, J, Altirkawi, K, Amini-Rarani, M, Amiri, F, Amugsi, D, Ancuceanu, R, Anderlini, D, Anderson, J, Andrei, C, Andrei, T, Angus, C, Anjomshoa, M, Ansari, F, Ansari-Moghaddam, A, Antonazzo, I, Antonio, C, Antony, C, Antriyandarti, E, Anvari, D, Anwer, R, Appiah, S, Arabloo, J, Arab-Zozani, M, Aravkin, A, Ariani, F, Armoon, B, Arnlov, J, Arzani, A, Asadi-Aliabadi, M, Asadi-Pooya, A, Ashbaugh, C, Assmus, M, Atafar, Z, Atnafu, D, Atout, M, Ausloos, F, Ausloos, M, Ayala Quintanilla, B, Ayano, G, Ayanore, M, Azari, S, Azarian, G, Azene, Z, Badawi, A, Badiye, A, Bahrami, M, Bakhshaei, M, Bakhtiari, A, Bakkannavar, S, Baldasseroni, A, Ball, K, Ballew, S, Balzi, D, Banach, M, Banerjee, S, Bante, A, Baraki, A, Barker-Collo, S, Barnighausen, T, Barrero, L, Barthelemy, C, Barua, L, Basu, S, Baune, B, Bayati, M, Becker, J, Bedi, N, Beghi, E, Bejot, Y, Bell, M, Bennitt, F, Bensenor, I, Berhe, K, Berman, A, Bhagavathula, A, Bhageerathy, R, Bhala, N, Bhandari, D, Bhattacharyya, K, Bhutta, Z, Bijani, A, Bikbov, B, Bin Sayeed, M, Biondi, A, Birihane, B, Bisignano, C, Biswas, R, Bitew, H, Bohlouli, S, Bohluli, M, Boon-Dooley, A, Borges, G, Borzi, A, Borzouei, S, Bosetti, C, Boufous, S, Braithwaite, D, Brauer, M, Breitborde, N, Breitner, S, Brenner, H, Briant, P, Briko, A, Briko, N, Britton, G, Bryazka, D, Bumgarner, B, Burkart, K, Burnett, R, Burugina Nagaraja, S, Butt, Z, Caetano Dos Santos, F, Cahill, L, Camera, L, Campos-Nonato, I, Cardenas, R, Carreras, G, Carrero, J, Carvalho, F, Castaldelli-Maia, J, Castaneda-Orjuela, C, Castelpietra, G, Castro, F, Causey, K, Cederroth, C, Cercy, K, Cerin, E, Chandan, J, Chang, K, Charlson, F, Chattu, V, Chaturvedi, S, Cherbuin, N, Chimed-Ochir, O, Cho, D, Choi, J, Christensen, H, Chu, D, Chung, M, Chung, S, Cicuttini, F, Ciobanu, L, Cirillo, M, Classen, T, Cohen, A, Compton, K, Cooper, O, Costa, V, Cousin, E, Cowden, R, Cross, D, Cruz, J, Dahlawi, S, Damasceno, A, Damiani, G, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Dangel, W, Danielsson, A, Dargan, P, Darwesh, A, Daryani, A, Das, J, Das Gupta, R, das Neves, J, Davila-Cervantes, C, Davitoiu, D, De Leo, D, Degenhardt, L, Delang, M, Dellavalle, R, Demeke, F, Demoz, G, Demsie, D, Denova-Gutierrez, E, Dervenis, N, Dhungana, G, Dianatinasab, M, Dias da Silva, D, Diaz, D, Dibaji Forooshani, Z, Djalalinia, S, Do, H, Dokova, K, Dorostkar, F, Doshmangir, L, Driscoll, T, Duncan, B, Duraes, A, Eagan, A, Edvardsson, D, El Nahas, N, El Sayed, I, El Tantawi, M, Elbarazi, I, Elgendy, I, El-Jaafary, S, Elyazar, I, Emmons-Bell, S, Erskine, H, Eskandarieh, S, Esmaeilnejad, S, Esteghamati, A, Estep, K, Etemadi, A, Etisso, A, Fanzo, J, Farahmand, M, Fareed, M, Faridnia, R, Farioli, A, Faro, A, Faruque, M, Farzadfar, F, Fattahi, N, Fazlzadeh, M, Feigin, V, Feldman, R, Fereshtehnejad, S, Fernandes, E, Ferrara, G, Ferrari, A, Ferreira, M, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Fisher, J, Flor, L, Foigt, N, Folayan, M, Fomenkov, A, Force, L, Foroutan, M, Franklin, R, Freitas, M, Fu, W, Fukumoto, T, Furtado, J, Gad, M, Gakidou, E, Gallus, S, Garcia-Basteiro, A, Gardner, W, Geberemariyam, B, Ayalew Gebreslassie, A, Geremew, A, Gershberg Hayoon, A, Gething, P, Ghadimi, M, Ghadiri, K, Ghaffarifar, F, Ghafourifard, M, Ghamari, F, Ghashghaee, A, Ghiasvand, H, Ghith, N, Gholamian, A, Ghosh, R, Gill, P, Ginindza, T, Giussani, G, Gnedovskaya, E, Goharinezhad, S, Gopalani, S, Gorini, G, Goudarzi, H, Goulart, A, Greaves, F, Grivna, M, Grosso, G, Gubari, M, Gugnani, H, Guimaraes, R, Guled, R, Guo, G, Guo, Y, Gupta, R, Gupta, T, Haddock, B, Hafezi-Nejad, N, Hafiz, A, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Hall, B, Halvaei, I, Hamadeh, R, Hamidi, S, Hammer, M, Hankey, G, Haririan, H, Haro, J, Hasaballah, A, Hasan, M, Hasanpoor, E, Hashi, A, Hassanipour, S, Hassankhani, H, Havmoeller, R, Hay, S, Hayat, K, Heidari, G, Heidari-Soureshjani, R, Henrikson, H, Herbert, M, Herteliu, C, Heydarpour, F, Hird, T, Hoek, H, Holla, R, Hoogar, P, Hosgood, H, Hossain, N, Hosseini, M, Hosseinzadeh, M, Hostiuc, M, Hostiuc, S, Househ, M, Hsairi, M, Hsieh, V, Hu, G, Hu, K, Huda, T, Humayun, A, Huynh, C, Hwang, B, Iannucci, V, Ibitoye, S, Ikeda, N, Ikuta, K, Ilesanmi, O, Ilic, I, Ilic, M, Inbaraj, L, Ippolito, H, Iqbal, U, Irvani, S, Irvine, C, Islam, M, Islam, S, Iso, H, Ivers, R, Iwu, C, Iyamu, I, Jaafari, J, Jacobsen, K, Jafari, H, Jafarinia, M, Jahani, M, Jakovljevic, M, Jalilian, F, James, S, Janjani, H, Javaheri, T, Javidnia, J, Jeemon, P, Jenabi, E, Jha, R, Jha, V, Ji, J, Johansson, L, John, O, John-Akinola, Y, Johnson, C, Jonas, J, Joukar, F, Jozwiak, J, Jurisson, M, Kabir, A, Kabir, Z, Kalani, H, Kalani, R, Kalankesh, L, Kalhor, R, Kanchan, T, Kapoor, N, Matin, B, Karch, A, Karim, M, Kassa, G, Katikireddi, S, Kayode, G, Kazemi Karyani, A, Keiyoro, P, Keller, C, Kemmer, L, Kendrick, P, Khalid, N, Khammarnia, M, Khan, E, Khan, M, Khatab, K, Khater, M, Khatib, M, Khayamzadeh, M, Khazaei, S, Kieling, C, Kim, Y, Kimokoti, R, Kisa, A, Kisa, S, Kivimaki, M, Knibbs, L, Knudsen, A, Kocarnik, J, Kochhar, S, Kopec, J, Korshunov, V, Koul, P, Koyanagi, A, Kraemer, M, Krishan, K, Krohn, K, Kromhout, H, Kuate Defo, B, Kumar, G, Kumar, V, Kurmi, O, Kusuma, D, La Vecchia, C, Lal, D, Lalloo, R, Lallukka, T, Lami, F, Landires, I, Lang, J, Langan, S, Larsson, A, Lasrado, S, Lauriola, P, Lazarus, J, Lee, P, Lee, S, Legrand, K, Leigh, J, Leonardi, M, Lescinsky, H, Leung, J, Levi, M, Li, S, Lim, L, Linn, S, Liu, S, Liu, Y, Lo, J, Lopez, A, Lopez, J, Lopukhov, P, Lorkowski, S, Lotufo, P, Lu, A, Lugo, A, Maddison, E, Mahasha, P, Mahdavi, M, Mahmoudi, M, Majeed, A, Maleki, A, Maleki, S, Malekzadeh, R, Malta, D, Mamun, A, Manda, A, Manguerra, H, Mansour-Ghanaei, F, Mansouri, B, Mansournia, M, Mantilla Herrera, A, Maravilla, J, Marks, A, Martin, R, Martini, S, Martins-Melo, F, Masaka, A, Masoumi, S, Mathur, M, Matsushita, K, Maulik, P, Mcalinden, C, Mcgrath, J, Mckee, M, Mehndiratta, M, Mehri, F, Mehta, K, Memish, Z, Mendoza, W, Menezes, R, Mengesha, E, Mereke, A, Mereta, S, Meretoja, A, Meretoja, T, Mestrovic, T, Miazgowski, B, Miazgowski, T, Michalek, I, Miller, T, Mills, E, Mini, G, Miri, M, Mirica, A, Mirrakhimov, E, Mirzaei, H, Mirzaei, M, Mirzaei, R, Mirzaei-Alavijeh, M, Misganaw, A, Mithra, P, Moazen, B, Mohammad, D, Mohammad, Y, Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, N, Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A, Mohammadifard, N, Mohammadpourhodki, R, Mohammed, A, Mohammed, H, Mohammed, J, Mohammed, S, Mokdad, A, Molokhia, M, Monasta, L, Mooney, M, Moradi, G, Moradi, M, Moradi-Lakeh, M, Moradzadeh, R, Moraga, P, Morawska, L, Morgado-Da-Costa, J, Morrison, S, Mosapour, A, Mosser, J, Mouodi, S, Mousavi, S, Khaneghah, A, Mueller, U, Mukhopadhyay, S, Mullany, E, Musa, K, Muthupandian, S, Nabhan, A, Naderi, M, Nagarajan, A, Nagel, G, Naghavi, M, Naghshtabrizi, B, Naimzada, M, Najafi, F, Nangia, V, Nansseu, J, Naserbakht, M, Nayak, V, Negoi, I, Ngunjiri, J, Nguyen, C, Nguyen, H, Nguyen, M, Nigatu, Y, Nikbakhsh, R, Nixon, M, Nnaji, C, Nomura, S, Norrving, B, Noubiap, J, Nowak, C, Nunez-Samudio, V, Oancea, B, Odell, C, Ogbo, F, Oh, I, Okunga, E, Oladnabi, M, Olagunju, A, Olusanya, B, Olusanya, J, Omer, M, Ong, K, Onwujekwe, O, Orpana, H, Ortiz, A, Osarenotor, O, Osei, F, Ostroff, S, Otoiu, A, Otstavnov, N, Otstavnov, S, Overland, S, Owolabi, M, Mahesh, P, Padubidri, J, Palladino, R, Panda-Jonas, S, Pandey, A, Parry, C, Pasovic, M, Pasupula, D, Patel, S, Pathak, M, Patten, S, Patton, G, Toroudi, H, Peden, A, Pennini, A, Pepito, V, Peprah, E, Pereira, D, Pesudovs, K, Pham, H, Phillips, M, Piccinelli, C, Pilz, T, Piradov, M, Pirsaheb, M, Plass, D, Polinder, S, Polkinghorne, K, Pond, C, Postma, M, Pourjafar, H, Pourmalek, F, Poznanska, A, Prada, S, Prakash, V, Pribadi, D, Pupillo, E, Syed, Z, Rabiee, M, Rabiee, N, Radfar, A, Rafiee, A, Raggi, A, Rahman, M, Rajabpour-Sanati, A, Rajati, F, Rakovac, I, Ram, P, Ramezanzadeh, K, Ranabhat, C, Rao, P, Rao, S, Rashedi, V, Rathi, P, Rawaf, D, Rawaf, S, Rawal, L, Rawassizadeh, R, Rawat, R, Razo, C, Redford, S, Reiner, R, Reitsma, M, Remuzzi, G, Renjith, V, Renzaho, A, Resnikoff, S, Rezaei, N, Rezapour, A, Rhinehart, P, Riahi, S, Ribeiro, D, Rickard, J, Rivera, J, Roberts, N, Rodriguez-Ramirez, S, Roever, L, Ronfani, L, Room, R, Roshandel, G, Roth, G, Rothenbacher, D, Rubagotti, E, Rwegerera, G, Sabour, S, Sachdev, P, Saddik, B, Sadeghi, E, Sadeghi, M, Saeedi, R, Saeedi Moghaddam, S, Safari, Y, Safi, S, Safiri, S, Sagar, R, Sahebkar, A, Sajadi, S, Salam, N, Salamati, P, Salem, H, Salem, M, Salimzadeh, H, Salman, O, Salomon, J, Samad, Z, Samadi Kafil, H, Sambala, E, Samy, A, Sanabria, J, Sanchez-Pimienta, T, Santomauro, D, Santos, I, Santos, J, Santric-Milicevic, M, Saraswathy, S, Sarmiento-Suarez, R, Sarrafzadegan, N, Sarveazad, A, Sathian, B, Sathish, T, Sattin, D, Saxena, S, Schaeffer, L, Schiavolin, S, Schlaich, M, Schmidt, M, Schutte, A, Schwebel, D, Schwendicke, F, Senbeta, A, Senthilkumaran, S, Sepanlou, S, Serdar, B, Serre, M, Shadid, J, Shafaat, O, Shahabi, S, Shaheen, A, Shaikh, M, Shalash, A, Shams-Beyranvand, M, Shamsizadeh, M, Sharafi, K, Sheikh, A, Sheikhtaheri, A, Shibuya, K, Shield, K, Shigematsu, M, Shin, J, Shin, M, Shiri, R, Shirkoohi, R, Shuval, K, Siabani, S, Sierpinski, R, Sigfusdottir, I, Sigurvinsdottir, R, Silva, J, Simpson, K, Singh, J, Singh, P, Skiadaresi, E, Skou, S, Skryabin, V, Smith, E, Soheili, A, Soltani, S, Soofi, M, Sorensen, R, Soriano, J, Sorrie, M, Soshnikov, S, Soyiri, I, Spencer, C, Spotin, A, Sreeramareddy, C, Srinivasan, V, Stanaway, J, Stein, C, Stein, D, Steiner, C, Stockfelt, L, Stokes, M, Straif, K, Stubbs, J, Sufiyan, M, Suleria, H, Suliankatchi Abdulkader, R, Sulo, G, Sultan, I, Tabares-Seisdedos, R, Tabb, K, Tabuchi, T, Taherkhani, A, Tajdini, M, Takahashi, K, Takala, J, Tamiru, A, Taveira, N, Tehrani-Banihashemi, A, Temsah, M, Tesema, G, Tessema, Z, Thurston, G, Titova, M, Tohidinik, H, Tonelli, M, Topor-Madry, R, Topouzis, F, Torre, A, Touvier, M, Tovani-Palone, M, Tran, B, Travillian, R, Tsatsakis, A, Tudor Car, L, Tyrovolas, S, Uddin, R, Umeokonkwo, C, Unnikrishnan, B, Upadhyay, E, Vacante, M, Valdez, P, van Donkelaar, A, Vasankari, T, Vasseghian, Y, Veisani, Y, Venketasubramanian, N, Violante, F, Vlassov, V, Vollset, S, Vos, T, Vukovic, R, Waheed, Y, Wallin, M, Wang, Y, Watson, A, Wei, J, Wei, M, Weintraub, R, Weiss, J, Werdecker, A, West, J, Westerman, R, Whisnant, J, Whiteford, H, Wiens, K, Wolfe, C, Wozniak, S, Wu, A, Wu, J, Wulf Hanson, S, Xu, G, Xu, R, Yadgir, S, Yahyazadeh Jabbari, S, Yamagishi, K, Yaminfirooz, M, Yano, Y, Yaya, S, Yazdi-Feyzabadi, V, Yeheyis, T, Yilgwan, C, Yilma, M, Yip, P, Yonemoto, N, Younis, M, Younker, T, Yousefi, B, Yousefi, Z, Yousefinezhadi, T, Yousuf, A, Yu, C, Yusefzadeh, H, Moghadam, T, Zamani, M, Zamanian, M, Zandian, H, Zastrozhin, M, Zhang, Y, Zhang, Z, Zhao, J, Zhao, X, Zhao, Y, Zheng, P, Zhou, M, Ziapour, A, Zimsen, S, Lim, S, Murray, C, GBD 2019 Risk Factors Collaborator, Violante FS, Biosciences, Department of Public Health, Clinicum, Department of Neurosciences, HUS Comprehensive Cancer Center, Environmental Sciences, Sub Foundations&PhilosophyofNaturSc begr, IRAS OH Epidemiology Chemical Agents, dIRAS RA-2, Public Health, Bin Sayeed, M. S. B., Caetano Dos Santos, F. L., Camera, L. A., Elyazar, I. R. F., Ayalew Gebreslassie, A. A. A., Ginindza, T. G., Matin, B. K., Morgado-Da-Costa, J., Khaneghah, A. M., Mahesh, P. A., Toroudi, H. P., Syed, Z. Q., Salem, M. R., Skou, S. T., Tovani-Palone, M. R., Tudor Car, L. T., and Moghadam, T. Z.
Subjects: Male, Nutritional Sciences, Specific risk, Contaminación del Aire Interior, 030204 cardiovascular system & hematology, Socioeconomic Factor, systematic analysis, Global Health, Body Mass Index, Global Burden of Disease, Health Risk Behavior, Health Risk Behaviors, Disease studies, 0302 clinical medicine, Risk Factors, METABOLIC RISKS, 030212 general & internal medicine, 11 Medical and Health Sciences, Factores de Riesgo, 2. Zero hunger, education.field_of_study, Public health, Injuries, Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology, General Medicine, GBD, risck factors, attributable burden of disease, 3142 Public health care science, environmental and occupational health, 3. Good health, Relative risk, Environmental health, Health, Hypertension, Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, Risk Factors, A990 Medicine and Dentistry not elsewhere classified, Female, Leading risk factors, Global Health Metrics, Cohort study, Human, medicine.medical_specialty, Substance-Related Disorders, Population, UNITED-STATES, Risk Assessment, DIET, ITC-HYBRID, 03 medical and health sciences, Life Expectancy, MORTALITY, DISABILITY, POLLUTION, CLUSTERS, SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being, General & Internal Medicine, medicine, Humans, Global Burden of Disease Study, Risk factor, education, Global burden, business.industry, Risk Factor, Malnutrition, Klinisk medicin, Global Burden of Diseases, Environmental Exposure, medicine.disease, Enfermedades, purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#3.02.00 [https], Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi, Years of potential life lost, Socioeconomic Factors, Risk factors, Disease study, Hyperglycemia, ITC-ISI-JOURNAL-ARTICLE, NA, Clinical Medicine, business, RA
Abstract: Background Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease. Methods GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk-outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk-outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk-outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden. Findings The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10.8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9.51-12.1) deaths (19.2% [16.9-21.3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8.71 million (8.12-9.31) deaths (15.4% [14.6-16.2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253-350) DALYs (11.6% [10.3-13.1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0-9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10-24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25-49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50-74 years and 75 years and older. Interpretation Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public. Copyright (C) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Published: 2020

3. Improving disaggregation models of malaria incidence by ensembling non-linear models of prevalence

Author: Susan F. Rumisha, Daniel J. Weiss, Suzanne H. Keddie, Tasmin L. Symons, Anita Nandi, Katherine E. Battle, Elisabeth G. Chestnutt, Tim C.D. Lucas, Ewan Cameron, Andre Python, Punam Amratia, Penelope A. Hancock, Rosalind E. Howes, Justin Millar, Amelia Bertozzi-Villa, Peter W. Gething, and Rohan Arambepola
Subjects: Epidemiology, Computer science, Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis, 030231 tropical medicine, Geography, Planning and Development, High resolution, 1117 Public Health and Health Services, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, parasitic diseases, Statistics, medicine, Prevalence, Humans, 030212 general & internal medicine, Malaria, Falciparum, Disease burden, 0707 Veterinary Sciences, Incidence, Contrast (statistics), Regression analysis, Non linear model, medicine.disease, Regression, Malaria, Infectious Diseases, Malaria incidence, Nonlinear Dynamics
Abstract: Maps of disease burden are a core tool needed for the control and elimination of malaria. Reliable routine surveillance data of malaria incidence, typically aggregated to administrative units, is becoming more widely available. Disaggregation regression is an important model framework for estimating high resolution risk maps from aggregated data. However, the aggregation of incidence over large, heterogeneous areas means that these data are underpowered for estimating complex, non-linear models. In contrast, prevalence point-surveys are directly linked to local environmental conditions but are not common in many areas of the world. Here, we train multiple non-linear, machine learning models on Plasmodium falciparum prevalence point-surveys. We then ensemble the predictions from these machine learning models with a disaggregation regression model that uses aggregated malaria incidences as response data. We find that using a disaggregation regression model to combine predictions from machine learning models improves model accuracy relative to a baseline model.
Published: 2020

4. Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Author: Sorin Hostiuc, Shaun Wen Huey Lee, Jorge R. Ledesma, Carsten Flohr, Masoumeh Sadeghi, João Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia, Behzad Karami Matin, Cyrus Alinia, Mehdi Bohluli, Félix Carvalho, Yun Jin Kim, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Seyyed Meysam Mousavi, Bernhard T. Baune, Ehsan Ahmadpour, Dinh-Toi Chu, Beatrix Haddock, Gianfranco Alicandro, Vasily Vlassov, Mohammad Taghi Khodayari, Gianna Gayle Herrera Amul, Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi, Govinda Prasad Dhungana, Fereshteh Ansari, Michael K. Hole, Azeem Majeed, Iman Halvaei, Saqib Ali, Arianna Maever L. Amit, Tomas Y. Yeheyis, John S. Ji, Martin McKee, Jamileh Shadid, Leonardo Roever, Peng Jia, Ettore Beghi, Pablo M. Lavados, Young Eun Kim, Vahid Alipour, Sowmya J. Rao, Ahmad Daryani, Cathleen Keller, Ibrahim Abdollahpour, Nicole K. DeCleene, Ebrahim Babaee, Saman Esmaeilnejad, Boris Bikbov, William M. Gardner, Lydia M. Haile, Luca Ronfani, Azalea M. Thomson, Irena Ilic, Ruth W. Kimokoti, Yingxi Zhao, Guoqing Hu, Mehran Shams-Beyranvand, Ilais Moreno Velásquez, Nathaniel J. Henry, Brijesh Sathian, Daniel Kim, Peter Memiah, Mohammad Hadi Abbasi, Andrea Farioli, Zahra Kamiab, Bolajoko O. Olusanya, Matthew C. Doxey, Tommi Vasankari, Hamideh Salimzadeh, Luisa Sorio Flor, Priya Rathi, Shanshan Li, Tanvir M. Huda, Dillon O Sylte, Rosario Cárdenas, Agegnehu Bante, Helen Ippolito, Alyssa Acebedo, Jeffrey D. Stanaway, Anwar Faraj, João Pedro Silva, Amin Mousavi Khaneghah, Pushpendra Kumar, Sangram Kishor Patel, Josephine W. Ngunjiri, Holly E. Erskine, Eugene Sobngwi, Filippo Ariani, Shane D. Morrison, Mohammad Aghaali, Meghan D. Mooney, Vera Marisa Costa, Palash Chandra Banik, Rupak Desai, Ken Takahashi, Maigeng Zhou, Morteza Oladnabi, Bogdan Oancea, Daniela Ribeiro, Mohammad Farahmand, Irmina Maria Michalek, Yetunde O. John-Akinola, Khem Narayan Pokhrel, Emilie R Maddison, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Damian G. Hoy, Hosni Salem, V. Prakash, Shuhei Nomura, Inga Dora Sigfusdottir, Anders Larsson, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Somayeh Bohlouli, Joana Morgado-da-Costa, Siamak Sabour, Theo Vos, Han Yong Wunrow, Khaled Khatab, Alireza Zangeneh, Ann Kristin Knudsen, Marissa B Reitsma, Hannah J. Henrikson, Randah R. Hamadeh, Tuomo J. Meretoja, Ireneous N. Soyiri, Giuseppe Grosso, Ziyad Al-Aly, Taraneh Yousefinezhadi, Joseph L Ward, Roba Khundkar, Ricardo Santiago Gomez, Reza Malekzadeh, John J. McGrath, Sandra B. Munro, Shahin Soltani, Amy E. Peden, Rufus Akinyemi, Marcel Ausloos, Naohiro Yonemoto, Bogdan Wojtyniak, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Guilherme Borges, Sadia Bibi, Farhad Islami, Hamed Mirzaei, Mohammad Ali Sahraian, M. Ashworth Dirac, Hosna Janjani, Kairat Davletov, Hermann Brenner, Yuichiro Yano, Elissa M. Abrams, Ana Vukovic, Bartosz Miazgowski, Jobert Richie Nansseu, Jennifer O Lam, Mona Pathak, Leeberk Raja Inbaraj, Thirunavukkarasu Sathish, Asadollah Gholamian, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Babak Eshrati, Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez, Atte Meretoja, Lorenzo Monasta, Ronan A. Lyons, Neda Kianipour, Desalegn Getnet Demsie, Yasir Waheed, Desta Debalkie Atnafu, Davide Sattin, Kevin S Ikuta, Ghobad Moradi, Srinivas Goli, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Mika Kivimäki, Christopher Troeger, Jordi Alonso, Alireza Ahmadi, Navid Manafi, Caroline Stein, Songhomitra Panda-Jonas, Jason Nguyen, Moses K. Muriithi, Aziz Rezapour, Ismael R. Campos-Nonato, Adrian Pana, H. Dean Hosgood, Noore Alam, James L. Fisher, Mariam Molokhia, Susan F. Rumisha, Ernoiz Antriyandarti, Ayman Grada, Emma Nichols, Babak Asghari, André Luiz Sena Guimarães, Ferrán Catalá-López, Aletta E. Schutte, Fiona B. Bennitt, Maciej Banach, Antonio Biondi, Donal Bisanzio, Josip Car, Ronny Westerman, Shafiu Mohammed, Biniyam Sahiledengle Geberemariyam, Kenji Shibuya, Meghdad Pirsaheb, Milena Santric-Milicevic, Karen M. Tabb, Paula Moraga, Soheil Hassanipour, Hasan Yusefzadeh, Avina Vongpradith, Dara K. Mohammad, Ralph Maddison, Babak Moazen, Getachew Mullu Kassa, Rahman Shiri, Fernando Neves Hugo, Hmwe H Kyu, Zachary V Dingels, Florian Fischer, Valentin Yurievich Skryabin, Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos, Massimo Cirillo, Nikita Otstavnov, Robert C. Reiner, Van C. Lansingh, Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suarez, Ashkan Afshin, Benjamin A Stark, Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari, Natalie C. Galles, Behnam Heidari, Eun-Kee Park, Mohammad Ali Jahani, Suzanne Polinder, Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib, Farhad Jadidi-Niaragh, Amir Radfar, Mowafa Househ, Derrick A Bennett, Gaorui Guo, Hesam Ghiasvand, Taweewat Wiangkham, Tamás Joó, Cristiana Abbafati, Kathryn Mei Ming Lau, Anita K. Nandi, Miklós Szócska, Manasi Kumar, Eduardo A. 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L., Department of Public Health, Clinicum, Department of Neurosciences, HUS Comprehensive Cancer Center, Environmental Sciences, Public Health, Real World Studies in PharmacoEpidemiology, -Genetics, -Economics and -Therapy (PEGET), Value, Affordability and Sustainability (VALUE), Microbes in Health and Disease (MHD), Sálfræðideild (HR), Department of Psychology (RU), Samfélagssvið (HR), School of Social Sciences (RU), Háskólinn í Reykjavík, Reykjavik University, GBD 2019 Diseases and Injuries Collaborator, Violante FS, Department of Earth Observation Science, Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation, and UT-I-ITC-ACQUAL
Subjects: Male, Life expectancy, Disability-Adjusted Life Year, Diseases, Disease, communicable disease, systematic analysis, Global Burden of Disease, 0302 clinical medicine, 80 and over, Medicine, 10. No inequality, Child, 11 Medical and Health Sciences, injuries, Aged, 80 and over, education.field_of_study, Sjúkdómar, DEMENTIA, FALLS, General Medicine, Forvarnir, 3. Good health, Child, Preschool, Human, GBD, Population health, 03 medical and health sciences, SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being, Humans, Global Burden of Disease Study, education, Aged, Spatial Analysis, Global burden, Disability, Prevention, DISABILITY, Infant, Spatial Analysi, Mortality rate, Global Burden of Disease, Diseases, Injuries, Systematic analysis, PREVENTION, Years of potential life lost, Risk factors, Disease study, ITC-ISI-JOURNAL-ARTICLE, RISK-FACTORS, Clinical Medicine, RA, Demography, Fötlun, Dánartíðni, Áhættuþættir, 030204 cardiovascular system & hematology, Risk Factors, Cause of Death, Global health, 030212 general & internal medicine, 1. No poverty, Disability-Adjusted Life Years, Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology, Middle Aged, 3142 Public health care science, environmental and occupational health, Adolescent, Adult, Age Distribution, Female, Infant, Newborn, Young Adult, Lýðheilsa, CLINICAL-TRIALS, Population, Settore MED/01 - Statistica Medica, diseases, ITC-HYBRID, Heilbrigðisvísindi, General & Internal Medicine, Mortality, Preschool, Disease burden, business.industry, Risk Factor, Klinisk medicin, Newborn, purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#3.02.00 [https], Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi, Áverkar, Systematic analysis, NA, business
Abstract: Publisher's version (útgefin grein), Background In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990-2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0-9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10-24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10-24 years were also in the top ten in the 25-49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50-74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and development investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Copyright (C) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd., Research reported in this publication was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; the University of Melbourne; Queensland Department of Health, Australia; the National Health and Medical Research Council, Australia; Public Health England; the Norwegian Institute of Public Health; St Jude Children's Research Hospital; the Cardiovascular Medical Research and Education Fund; the National Institute on Ageing of the National Institutes of Health (award P30AG047845); and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health (award R01MH110163). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the funders. The authors alone are responsible for the views expressed in this Article and they do not necessarily represent the views, decisions, or policies of the institutions with which they are affiliated, the National Health Service (NHS), the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), the UK Department of Health and Social Care, or Public Health England; the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), the US Government, or MEASURE Evaluation; or the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). This research used data from the Chile National Health Survey 2003, 2009-10, and 2016-17. The authors are grateful to the Ministry of Health, the survey copyright owner, for allowing them to have the database. All results of the study are those of the authors and in no way committed to the Ministry. The Costa Rican Longevity and Healthy Aging Study project is a longitudinal study by the University of Costa Rica's Centro Centroamericano de Poblacion and Instituto de Investigaciones en Salud, in collaboration with the University of California at Berkeley. The original pre-1945 cohort was funded by the Wellcome Trust (grant 072406), and the 1945-55 Retirement Cohort was funded by the US National Institute on Aging (grant R01AG031716). The principal investigators are Luis Rosero-Bixby and William H Dow and co-principal investigators are Xinia Fernandez and Gilbert Brenes. The accuracy of the authors' statistical analysis and the findings they report are not the responsibility of ECDC. ECDC is not responsible for conclusions or opinions drawn from the data provided. ECDC is not responsible for the correctness of the data and for data management, data merging and data collation after provision of the data. ECDC shall not be held liable for improper or incorrect use of the data. The Health Behaviour in School-Aged Children (HBSC) study is an international study carried out in collaboration with WHO/EURO. The international coordinator of the 1997-98, 2001-02, 2005-06, and 2009-10 surveys was Candace Currie and the databank manager for the 1997-98 survey was Bente Wold, whereas for the following surveys Oddrun Samdal was the databank manager. A list of principal investigators in each country can be found on the HBSC website. Data used in this paper come from the 2009-10 Ghana Socioeconomic Panel Study Survey, which is a nationally representative survey of more than 5000 households in Ghana. The survey is a joint effort undertaken by the Institute of Statistical, Social and Economic Research (ISSER) at the University of Ghana and the Economic Growth Centre (EGC) at Yale University. It was funded by EGC. ISSER and the EGC are not responsible for the estimations reported by the analysts. The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics granted the researchers access to relevant data in accordance with license number SLN2014-3-170, after subjecting data to processing aiming to preserve the confidentiality of individual data in accordance with the General Statistics Law, 2000. The researchers are solely responsible for the conclusions and inferences drawn upon available data. Data for this research was provided by MEASURE Evaluation, funded by USAID. The authors thank the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey, conducted by the National Research University Higher School of Economics and ZAO Demoscope together with Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and the Institute of Sociology, Russia Academy of Sciences for making data available. This paper uses data from the Bhutan 2014 STEPS survey, implemented by the Ministry of Health with the support of WHO; the Kuwait 2006 and 2014 STEPS surveys, implemented by the Ministry of Health with the support of WHO; the Libya 2009 STEPS survey, implemented by the Secretariat of Health and Environment with the support of WHO; the Malawi 2009 STEPS survey, implemented by Ministry of Health with the support of WHO; and the Moldova 2013 STEPS survey, implemented by the Ministry of Health, the National Bureau of Statistics, and the National Center of Public Health with the support of WHO. This paper uses data from Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) Waves 1 (DOI:10.6103/SHARE. w1.700), 2 (10.6103/SHARE.w2.700), 3 (10.6103/SHARE.w3.700), 4 (10.6103/SHARE.w4.700), 5 (10.6103/SHARE.w5.700), 6 (10.6103/SHARE.w6.700), and 7 (10.6103/SHARE.w7.700); see Borsch-Supan and colleagues (2013) for methodological details. The SHARE data collection has been funded by the European Commission through FP5 (QLK6-CT-2001-00360), FP6 (SHARE-I3: RII-CT-2006-062193, COMPARE: CIT5-CT-2005-028857, SHARELIFE: CIT4-CT-2006-028812), FP7 (SHARE-PREP: GA N degrees 211909, SHARE-LEAP: GA N degrees 227822, SHARE M4: GA N degrees 261982) and Horizon 2020 (SHARE-DEV3: GA N degrees 676536, SERISS: GA N degrees 654221) and by DG Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion. Additional funding from the German Ministry of Education and Research, the Max Planck Society for the Advancement of Science, the US National Institute on Aging (U01_AG09740-13S2, P01_AG005842, P01_AG08291, P30_AG12815, R21_AG025169, Y1-AG-4553-01, IAG_BSR06-11, OGHA_04-064, HHSN271201300071C), and from various national funding sources is gratefully acknowledged. This study has been realised using the data collected by the Swiss Household Panel, which is based at the Swiss Centre of Expertise in the Social Sciences. The project is financed by the Swiss National Science Foundation. The United States Aging, Demographics, and Memory Study is a supplement to the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), which is sponsored by the National Institute of Aging (grant number NIA U01AG009740). It was conducted jointly by Duke University and the University of Michigan. The HRS is sponsored by the National Institute on Aging (grant number NIA U01AG009740) and is conducted by the University of Michigan. This paper uses data from Add Health, a program project designed by J Richard Udry, Peter S Bearman, and Kathleen Mullan Harris, and funded by a grant P01-HD31921 from the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, with cooperative funding from 17 other agencies. Special acknowledgment is due to Ronald R Rindfuss and Barbara Entwisle for assistance in the original design. Information on how to obtain the Add Health data files is available on the Add Health website. No direct support was received from grant P01-HD31921 for this analysis. The data reported here have been supplied by the United States Renal Data System. The interpretation and reporting of these data are the responsibility of the authors and in no way should be seen as an official policy or interpretation of the US Government. Collection of data for the Mozambique National Survey on the Causes of Death 2007-08 was made possible by USAID under the terms of cooperative agreement GPO-A-00-08-000_D3-00. This manuscript is based on data collected and shared by the International Vaccine Institute (IVI) from an original study IVI conducted. L G Abreu acknowledges support from Coordenacao de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de Nivel Superior (Brazil; finance code 001) and Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cientifico e Tecnologico (CNPq, a Brazilian funding agency). I N Ackerman was supported by a Victorian Health and Medical Research Fellowship awarded by the Victorian Government. O O Adetokunboh acknowledges the South African Department of Science and Innovation and the National Research Foundation. A Agrawal acknowledges the Wellcome Trust DBT India Alliance Senior Fellowship. S M Aljunid acknowledges the Department of Health Policy and Management, Faculty of Public Health, Kuwait University and International Centre for Casemix and Clinical Coding, Faculty of Medicine, National University of Malaysia for the approval and support to participate in this research project. M Ausloos, C Herteliu, and A Pana acknowledge partial support by a grant of the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation, CNDS-UEFISCDI, project number PN-III-P4-ID-PCCF-2016-0084. A Badawi is supported by the Public Health Agency of Canada. D A Bennett was supported by the NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre. R Bourne acknowledges the Brien Holden Vision Institute, University of Heidelberg, Sightsavers, Fred Hollows Foundation, and Thea Foundation. G B Britton and I Moreno Velasquez were supported by the Sistema Nacional de Investigacion, SNI-SENACYT, Panama. R Buchbinder was supported by an Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Senior Principal Research Fellowship. J J Carrero was supported by the Swedish Research Council (2019-01059). F Carvalho acknowledges UID/MULTI/04378/2019 and UID/QUI/50006/2019 support with funding from FCT/MCTES through national funds. A R Chang was supported by National Institutes of Health/National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases grant K23 DK106515. V M Costa acknowledges the grant SFRH/BHD/110001/2015, received by Portuguese national funds through Fundacao para a Ciencia e Tecnologia, IP, under the Norma Transitaria DL57/2016/CP1334/CT0006. A Douiri acknowledges support and funding from the National Institute for Health Research Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care South London at King's College Hospital NHS Foundation Trust and the Royal College of Physicians, and support from the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre based at Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust and King's College London. B B Duncan acknowledges grants from the Foundation for the Support of Research of the State of Rio Grande do Sul (IATS and PrInt) and the Brazilian Ministry of Health. H E Erskine is the recipient of an Australian NHMRC Early Career Fellowship grant (APP1137969). A J Ferrari was supported by a NHMRC Early Career Fellowship grant (APP1121516). H E Erskine and A J Ferrari are employed by and A M Mantilla-Herrera and D F Santomauro affiliated with the Queensland Centre for Mental Health Research, which receives core funding from the Queensland Department of Health. M L Ferreira holds an NHMRC Research Fellowship. C Flohr was supported by the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre based at Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust. M Freitas acknowledges financial support from the EU (European Regional Development Fund [FEDER] funds through COMPETE POCI-01-0145-FEDER-029248) and National Funds (Fundacao para a Ciencia e Tecnologia) through project PTDC/NAN-MAT/29248/2017. A L S Guimaraes acknowledges support from CNPq. C Herteliu was partially supported by a grant co-funded by FEDER through Operational Competitiveness Program (project ID P_40_382). P Hoogar acknowledges Centre for Bio Cultural Studies, Directorate of Research, Manipal Academy of Higher Education and Centre for Holistic Development and Research, Kalaghatagi. F N Hugo acknowledges the Visiting Professorship, PRINT Program, CAPES Foundation, Brazil. B-F Hwang was supported by China Medical University (CMU107-Z-04), Taichung, Taiwan. S M S Islam was funded by a National Heart Foundation Senior Research Fellowship and supported by Deakin University. R Q Ivers was supported by a research fellowship from the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia. M Jakovljevic acknowledges the Serbian part of this GBD-related contribution was co-funded through Grant OI175014 of the Ministry of Education Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia. P Jeemon was supported by a Clinical and Public Health intermediate fellowship (grant number IA/CPHI/14/1/501497) from the Wellcome Trust-Department of Biotechnology, India Alliance (2015-20). O John is a recipient of UIPA scholarship from University of New South Wales, Sydney. S V Katikireddi acknowledges funding from a NRS Senior Clinical Fellowship (SCAF/15/02), the Medical Research Council (MC_UU_12017/13, MC_UU_12017/15), and the Scottish Government Chief Scientist Office (SPHSU13, SPHSU15). C Kieling is a CNPq researcher and a UK Academy of Medical Sciences Newton Advanced Fellow. Y J Kim was supported by Research Management Office, Xiamen University Malaysia (XMUMRF/2018-C2/ITCM/00010). K Krishan is supported by UGC Centre of Advanced Study awarded to the Department of Anthropology, Panjab University, Chandigarh, India. M Kumar was supported by K43 TW 010716 FIC/NIMH. B Lacey acknowledges support from the NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre and the BHF Centre of Research Excellence, Oxford. J V Lazarus was supported by a Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities Miguel Servet grant (Instituto de Salud Carlos III [ISCIII]/ESF, the EU [CP18/00074]). K J Looker thanks the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Evaluation of Interventions at the University of Bristol, in partnership with Public Health England, for research support. S Lorkowski was funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (nutriCARD, grant agreement number 01EA1808A). R A Lyons is supported by Health Data Research UK (HDR-9006), which is funded by the UK Medical Research Council, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, Economic and Social Research Council, NIHR (England), Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorates, Health and Social Care Research and Development Division (Welsh Government), Public Health Agency (Northern Ireland), British Heart Foundation, and Wellcome Trust. J J McGrath is supported by the Danish National Research Foundation (Niels Bohr Professorship), and the Queensland Health Department (via West Moreton HHS). P T N Memiah acknowledges support from CODESRIA. U O Mueller gratefully acknowledges funding by the German National Cohort Study BMBF grant number 01ER1801D. S Nomura acknowledges the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology of Japan (18K10082). A Ortiz was supported by ISCIII PI19/00815, DTS18/00032, ISCIII-RETIC REDinREN RD016/0009 Fondos FEDER, FRIAT, Comunidad de Madrid B2017/BMD-3686 CIFRA2-CM. These funding sources had no role in the writing of the manuscript or the decision to submit it for publication. S B Patten was supported by the Cuthbertson & Fischer Chair in Pediatric Mental Health at the University of Calgary. G C Patton was supported by an aNHMRC Senior Principal Research Fellowship. M R Phillips was supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC, number 81371502 and 81761128031). A Raggi, D Sattin, and S Schiavolin were supported by grants from the Italian Ministry of Health (Ricerca Corrente, Fondazione Istituto Neurologico C Besta, Linea 4-Outcome Research: dagli Indicatori alle Raccomandazioni Cliniche). P Rathi and B Unnikrishnan acknowledge Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal. A L P Ribeiro was supported by Brazilian National Research Council, CNPq, and the Minas Gerais State Research Agency, FAPEMIG. D C Ribeiro was supported by The Sir Charles Hercus Health Research Fellowship (#18/111) Health Research Council of New Zealand. D Ribeiro acknowledges financial support from the EU (FEDER funds through the Operational Competitiveness Program; POCI-01-0145-FEDER-029253). P S Sachdev acknowledges funding from the NHMRC of Australia Program Grant. A M Samy was supported by a fellowship from the Egyptian Fulbright Mission Program. M M Santric-Milicevic acknowledges the Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia (contract number 175087). R Sarmiento-Suarez received institutional support from Applied and Environmental Sciences University (Bogota, Colombia) and ISCIII (Madrid, Spain). A E Schutte received support from the South African National Research Foundation SARChI Initiative (GUN 86895) and Medical Research Council. S T S Skou is currently funded by a grant from Region Zealand (Exercise First) and a grant from the European Research Council under the EU's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (grant agreement number 801790). J B Soriano is funded by Centro de Investigacion en Red de Enfermedades Respiratorias, ISCIII. R Tabares-Seisdedos was supported in part by the national grant PI17/00719 from ISCIII-FEDER. N Taveira was partially supported by the European & Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership, the EU (LIFE project, reference RIA2016MC-1615). S Tyrovolas was supported by the Foundation for Education and European Culture, the Sara Borrell postdoctoral programme (reference number CD15/00019 from ISCIII-FEDER). S B Zaman received a scholarship from the Australian Government research training programme in support of his academic career., "Peer Reviewed"
Published: 2020

5. Mapping diphtheria-pertussis-tetanus vaccine coverage in Africa, 2000–2016: a spatial and temporal modelling study

Author: Daniel C Casey, Robert C. Reiner, William C. Gagne-Maynard, Freya M Shearer, Peter W. Gething, Daniel J. Weiss, Roy Burstein, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Aniruddha Deshpande, Nancy Fullman, Christopher J L Murray, Aaron Osgood-Zimmerman, Lucas Earl, Nicholas Graetz, Stephen S Lim, Patrick Y Liu, Jonathan F. Mosser, Heidi J. Larson, Sarah E Ray, David M. Pigott, Samir Bhatt, Puja C Rao, Simon I. Hay, Rachel L Updike, and Laura Dwyer-Lindgren
Subjects: Vaccination Coverage, Inequality, Somalia, media_common.quotation_subject, Childhood vaccination, 030204 cardiovascular system & hematology, Health outcomes, Article, 03 medical and health sciences, Spatio-Temporal Analysis, 0302 clinical medicine, Cost of Illness, medicine, Humans, 030212 general & internal medicine, Socioeconomics, Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis Vaccine, media_common, Tetanus, Immunization Programs, Diphtheria, Vaccination, Rwanda, Infant, General Medicine, Models, Theoretical, medicine.disease, Morocco, Geography, Angola, Socioeconomic Factors, Action plan, Africa, Diphtheria-Pertussis-Tetanus Vaccine, Guinea, Immunization, Ethiopia, Geographical inequalities, Delivery of Health Care
Abstract: Summary Background Routine childhood vaccination is among the most cost-effective, successful public health interventions available. Amid substantial investments to expand vaccine delivery throughout Africa and strengthen administrative reporting systems, most countries still require robust measures of local routine vaccine coverage and changes in geographical inequalities over time. Methods This analysis drew from 183 surveys done between 2000 and 2016, including data from 881 268 children in 49 African countries. We used a Bayesian geostatistical model calibrated to results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017, to produce annual estimates with high-spatial resolution (5 × 5 km) of diphtheria-pertussis-tetanus (DPT) vaccine coverage and dropout for children aged 12–23 months in 52 African countries from 2000 to 2016. Findings Estimated third-dose (DPT3) coverage increased in 72·3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 64·6–80·3) of second-level administrative units in Africa from 2000 to 2016, but substantial geographical inequalities in DPT coverage remained across and within African countries. In 2016, DPT3 coverage at the second administrative (ie, district) level varied by more than 25% in 29 of 52 countries, with only two (Morocco and Rwanda) of 52 countries meeting the Global Vaccine Action Plan target of 80% DPT3 coverage or higher in all second-level administrative units with high confidence (posterior probability ≥95%). Large areas of low DPT3 coverage (≤50%) were identified in the Sahel, Somalia, eastern Ethiopia, and in Angola. Low first-dose (DPT1) coverage (≤50%) and high relative dropout (≥30%) together drove low DPT3 coverage across the Sahel, Somalia, eastern Ethiopia, Guinea, and Angola. Interpretation Despite substantial progress in Africa, marked national and subnational inequalities in DPT coverage persist throughout the continent. These results can help identify areas of low coverage and vaccine delivery system vulnerabilities and can ultimately support more precise targeting of resources to improve vaccine coverage and health outcomes for African children. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Published: 2019

6. Mapping under-5 and neonatal mortality in Africa, 2000-15: a baseline analysis for the Sustainable Development Goals

Author: Nick, Golding, Roy, Burstein, Joshua, Longbottom, Annie J, Browne, Nancy, Fullman, Aaron, Osgood-Zimmerman, Lucas, Earl, Samir, Bhatt, Ewan, Cameron, Daniel C, Casey, Laura, Dwyer-Lindgren, Tamer H, Farag, Abraham D, Flaxman, Maya S, Fraser, Peter W, Gething, Harry S, Gibson, Nicholas, Graetz, L Kendall, Krause, Xie Rachel, Kulikoff, Stephen S, Lim, Bonnie, Mappin, Chloe, Morozoff, Robert C, Reiner, Amber, Sligar, David L, Smith, Haidong, Wang, Daniel J, Weiss, Christopher J L, Murray, Catherine L, Moyes, Simon I, Hay, and Medical Research Council (MRC)
Subjects: Male, Conservation of Natural Resources, Age Factors, Infant, Newborn, Infant, Bayes Theorem, 11 Medical And Health Sciences, Risk Assessment, Article, Africa, Western, Sex Factors, Predictive Value of Tests, Cause of Death, Child, Preschool, Population Surveillance, General & Internal Medicine, Child Mortality, Infant Mortality, Humans, Female, Developing Countries, Goals
Abstract: Summary Background During the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) era, many countries in Africa achieved marked reductions in under-5 and neonatal mortality. Yet the pace of progress toward these goals substantially varied at the national level, demonstrating an essential need for tracking even more local trends in child mortality. With the adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in 2015, which established ambitious targets for improving child survival by 2030, optimal intervention planning and targeting will require understanding of trends and rates of progress at a higher spatial resolution. In this study, we aimed to generate high-resolution estimates of under-5 and neonatal all-cause mortality across 46 countries in Africa. Methods We assembled 235 geographically resolved household survey and census data sources on child deaths to produce estimates of under-5 and neonatal mortality at a resolution of 5 × 5 km grid cells across 46 African countries for 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015. We used a Bayesian geostatistical analytical framework to generate these estimates, and implemented predictive validity tests. In addition to reporting 5 × 5 km estimates, we also aggregated results obtained from these estimates into three different levels—national, and subnational administrative levels 1 and 2—to provide the full range of geospatial resolution that local, national, and global decision makers might require. Findings Amid improving child survival in Africa, there was substantial heterogeneity in absolute levels of under-5 and neonatal mortality in 2015, as well as the annualised rates of decline achieved from 2000 to 2015. Subnational areas in countries such as Botswana, Rwanda, and Ethiopia recorded some of the largest decreases in child mortality rates since 2000, positioning them well to achieve SDG targets by 2030 or earlier. Yet these places were the exception for Africa, since many areas, particularly in central and western Africa, must reduce under-5 mortality rates by at least 8·8% per year, between 2015 and 2030, to achieve the SDG 3.2 target for under-5 mortality by 2030. Interpretation In the absence of unprecedented political commitment, financial support, and medical advances, the viability of SDG 3.2 achievement in Africa is precarious at best. By producing under-5 and neonatal mortality rates at multiple levels of geospatial resolution over time, this study provides key information for decision makers to target interventions at populations in the greatest need. In an era when precision public health increasingly has the potential to transform the design, implementation, and impact of health programmes, our 5 × 5 km estimates of child mortality in Africa provide a baseline against which local, national, and global stakeholders can map the pathways for ending preventable child deaths by 2030. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Published: 2017

7. Population coverage of artemisinin-based combination treatment in children younger than 5 years with fever and Plasmodium falciparum infection in Africa, 2003-2015: a modelling study using data from national surveys

Author: Thomas P. Eisele, Donal Bisanzio, Peter W. Gething, Michael P. Lynch, Ewan Cameron, Richard E Cibulskis, Bonnie Mappin, Joshua Yukich, Cristin A Fergus, Daniel J. Weiss, Samir Bhatt, and Adam Bennett
Subjects: Male, Pediatrics, medicine.medical_specialty, Plasmodium falciparum, 030231 tropical medicine, Population, Child Welfare, Article, Antimalarials, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, parasitic diseases, medicine, Humans, 030212 general & internal medicine, Malaria, Falciparum, Artemisinin, education, Africa South of the Sahara, education.field_of_study, Rapid diagnostic test, Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys, biology, Diagnostic Tests, Routine, business.industry, lcsh:Public aspects of medicine, Infant, Newborn, Infant, lcsh:RA1-1270, General Medicine, Odds ratio, biology.organism_classification, medicine.disease, Artemisinins, Child, Preschool, Africa, Female, Rural area, business, Malaria, Demography, medicine.drug
Abstract: Summary Background Artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) are the most effective treatment for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection. A commonly used indicator for monitoring and assessing progress in coverage of malaria treatment is the proportion of children younger than 5 years with reported fever in the previous 14 days who have received an ACT. We propose an improved indicator that incorporates parasite infection status (as assessed by a rapid diagnostic test [RDT]), which is available in recent household surveys. In this study we estimated the annual proportion of children younger than 5 years with fever and a positive RDT in Africa who received an ACT in 2003–15. Methods Our modelling study used cross-sectional data on treatment for fever and RDT status for children younger than 5 years compiled from all nationally available representative household surveys (the Malaria Indicator Surveys, Demographic and Health Surveys, and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys) across sub-Saharan Africa between 2003 and 2015. Estimates for the proportion of children younger than 5 years with a fever within the previous 14 days and P falciparum infection assessed by RDT who received an ACT were incorporated in a generalised additive mixed model, including data on ACT distributions, to estimate coverage across all countries and time periods. We did random effects meta-analyses to examine individual, household, and community effects associated with ACT coverage. Findings We obtained data on 201 704 children younger than 5 years from 103 surveys (22 MIS, 61 DHS, and 20 MICS) across 33 countries. RDT results were available for 40 of these surveys including 40 261 (20%) children, and we predicted RDT status for the remaining 161 443 (80%) children. Our results showed that ACT coverage in children younger than 5 years with a fever and P falciparum infection increased across sub-Saharan Africa in 2003–15, but even in 2015, only 19·7% (95% CI 15·6–24·8) of children younger than 5 years with a fever and P falciparum infection received an ACT. In meta-analyses, children younger than 5 years were more likely to receive an ACT for fever and P falciparum infection if they lived in an urban area ( vs rural area; odds ratio [OR] 1·18, 95% CI 1·06–1·31), had household wealth above the national median ( vs wealth below the median; OR 1·26, 1·16–1·39), had a caregiver with any education ( vs no education; OR 1·31, 1·22–1·41), had a household insecticide-treated net (ITN; vs no ITN; OR 1·21, 1·13–1·29), were older than 2 years ( vs ≤2 years; OR 1·09, 1·01–1·17), or lived in an area with a higher mean P falciparum prevalence in children aged 2–10 years (OR 1·12, 1·02–1·23). In the subgroup of children for whom treatment was sought, those who sought treatment in the public sector were more likely to receive an ACT ( vs the private sector; OR 3·18, 2·67–3·78). Interpretation Despite progress during the 2003–15 malaria programme, ACT treatment for children with malaria remains unacceptably low. More work is needed at the country level to understand how health-care access, service delivery, and ACT supply might be improved to ensure appropriate treatment for all children with malaria. Funding US President's Malaria Initiative and Medicines for Malaria Venture.
Published: 2017

8. India's invisible malaria burden

Author: Robert W. Snow, Simon I. Hay, and Peter W. Gething
Subjects: Estimation, medicine.medical_specialty, biology, business.industry, Public health, Plasmodium vivax, Plasmodium falciparum, General Medicine, biology.organism_classification, medicine.disease, Article, Malaria, parasitic diseases, Health care, medicine, Public Health, business, Disease burden, Demography, Cause of death
Abstract: Measurement of malaria mortality is a public health challenge that has been met with various solutions. Outside Africa, these estimates usually rely on governmental recorded deaths, which have been adjusted in various ways to account for incomplete reporting.1 In The Lancet today, Neeraj Dhingra and colleagues2 use the results of verbal autopsies to provide estimates for malaria mortality in India; non-medical field workers did verbal autopsies for 122 291 community deaths across 6671 sites in India between 2001 and 2003. The fieldworkers used verbal autopsies to identify the cause and severity of fever. Two trained physicians coded the results for cause of death, and disagreements were anonymously adjudicated if a consensus could not be reached. After adjudication, the investigators recorded that 3·6% of deaths between 1 month and 70 years of age were a result of malaria. The deaths that were initially attributed to malaria by one of the two physicians (3·8%) were used as a plausible upper bound, and those immediately scored by both physicians were used as the lower bound (1·7%). When scaled up to the national level, the investigators estimated that 205 000 deaths per year could be attributed directly to malaria with lower and upper limits of 125 000 and 277 000, respectively (figure). These estimates are strikingly different from the estimates provided by WHO,1 who report that only 15 000 malaria deaths per year (95% CI 9600–21 000) were likely to have occurred in India in 2006 (figure). Figure Comparison of morbidity and mortality estimates for India Despite the use of verbal autopsies by Dhingra and colleagues and many UN agencies,4 they remain an imperfect method for the estimation of malaria mortality,5 and the unexpected findings reported today therefore require further investigation. Dhingra and colleagues offered several arguments in support of their observations. First, there was a strong geographical correlation with state-reported malaria mortality statistics; second, the malaria mortality data showed credible temporal trends with peaks after the wet season in every district; third, there was striking correspondence with malaria transmission-rates calculated independently at the district level; and fourth, this spatial correlation was not seen in three other diseases whose symptoms are often confused with malaria (dengue, typhoid, and meningitis). We have developed maps of the spatial extents and intensity of Plasmodium falciparum transmission,5 and used these improved denominators to estimate the P falciparum clinical burden in India in 2007.6 406 million Indians were at risk of stable P falciparum transmission in 2007 with an uncertainty point estimate of 101·5 million clinical cases (95% CI 31·0–187·0 million cases; figure). Despite the uncertainty in these estimates, our lower confidence interval was three times higher than estimates provided by WHO for combined P falciparum and Plasmodium vivax clinical burden in 2006 (figure). Could WHO’s estimates of malaria mortality and morbidity be so wrong? WHO morbidity estimates used routine data for confirmed malaria cases, adjusted for under-reporting by facilities, and a care-seeking fraction derived from national survey data on childhood fevers that were registered by formal health-care facilities. Deaths were then estimated from this total with a fixed case-fatality rate. A startling result reported in today’s work is that 86% of deaths from malaria were not in any formal health-care facility, suggesting that deaths from malaria are predominantly unnoticed by the health-reporting system. Many workers have also noted that the health-management information system in India is not fit for purpose for the recording of malaria morbidity and mortality.7 Additionally, deaths and clinical events related to P falciparum might represent only a fraction of the total malaria disease burden in India. Dhingra and colleagues did not estimate the comorbid consequences of malaria infection—notably, the consequences associated with birth outcomes and maternal mortality, which are important in India8—nor has there been a systematic and independent review in India of the severe clinical consequences resulting from infection by P vivax. The true effect of the malaria burden in India remains uncertain, but evidence is increasing that the scale of the burden has been greatly under-estimated—which is particularly surprising for a country that boasts a space programme and is an emerging global economic leader. Today’s study and growing evidence from other sources should give the Indian authorities, WHO, and those who incorporate these statistics in their work4 pause for thought. Beyond India, this evidence emphasises the inadequacies in the way WHO reports global malaria cases, a process that depends heavily on routine health-reporting data. Similar disparities in WHO malaria statistics and epidemiologically derived estimates of disease burden could exist in other heavily populated, remote regions that are exposed to malaria and have unreliable access to health care, such as Burma, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Indonesia. As countries strive to improve their measurement of diseases and deaths attributable to malaria, independent studies play a crucial part in drawing attention to the inadequacies of national statistics.
Published: 2016

9. Population coverage of artemisinin-based combination treatment in children younger than 5 years with fever and Plasmodium falciparum infection in Africa, 2003–2015: a modelling study using data from national surveys

Author: Adam Bennett, DrPhD, Donal Bisanzio, PhD, Joshua O Yukich, PhD, Bonnie Mappin, MSc, Cristin A Fergus, MPH, Michael Lynch, MD, Richard E Cibulskis, PhD, Samir Bhatt, PhD, Daniel J Weiss, PhD, Ewan Cameron, PhD, Peter W Gething, PhD, and Thomas P Eisele, ProfPhD
Subjects: Public aspects of medicine, RA1-1270
Abstract: Summary: Background: Artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) are the most effective treatment for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection. A commonly used indicator for monitoring and assessing progress in coverage of malaria treatment is the proportion of children younger than 5 years with reported fever in the previous 14 days who have received an ACT. We propose an improved indicator that incorporates parasite infection status (as assessed by a rapid diagnostic test [RDT]), which is available in recent household surveys. In this study we estimated the annual proportion of children younger than 5 years with fever and a positive RDT in Africa who received an ACT in 2003–15. Methods: Our modelling study used cross-sectional data on treatment for fever and RDT status for children younger than 5 years compiled from all nationally available representative household surveys (the Malaria Indicator Surveys, Demographic and Health Surveys, and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys) across sub-Saharan Africa between 2003 and 2015. Estimates for the proportion of children younger than 5 years with a fever within the previous 14 days and P falciparum infection assessed by RDT who received an ACT were incorporated in a generalised additive mixed model, including data on ACT distributions, to estimate coverage across all countries and time periods. We did random effects meta-analyses to examine individual, household, and community effects associated with ACT coverage. Findings: We obtained data on 201 704 children younger than 5 years from 103 surveys (22 MIS, 61 DHS, and 20 MICS) across 33 countries. RDT results were available for 40 of these surveys including 40 261 (20%) children, and we predicted RDT status for the remaining 161 443 (80%) children. Our results showed that ACT coverage in children younger than 5 years with a fever and P falciparum infection increased across sub-Saharan Africa in 2003–15, but even in 2015, only 19·7% (95% CI 15·6–24·8) of children younger than 5 years with a fever and P falciparum infection received an ACT. In meta-analyses, children younger than 5 years were more likely to receive an ACT for fever and P falciparum infection if they lived in an urban area (vs rural area; odds ratio [OR] 1·18, 95% CI 1·06–1·31), had household wealth above the national median (vs wealth below the median; OR 1·26, 1·16–1·39), had a caregiver with any education (vs no education; OR 1·31, 1·22–1·41), had a household insecticide-treated net (ITN; vs no ITN; OR 1·21, 1·13–1·29), were older than 2 years (vs ≤2 years; OR 1·09, 1·01–1·17), or lived in an area with a higher mean P falciparum prevalence in children aged 2–10 years (OR 1·12, 1·02–1·23). In the subgroup of children for whom treatment was sought, those who sought treatment in the public sector were more likely to receive an ACT (vs the private sector; OR 3·18, 2·67–3·78). Interpretation: Despite progress during the 2003–15 malaria programme, ACT treatment for children with malaria remains unacceptably low. More work is needed at the country level to understand how health-care access, service delivery, and ACT supply might be improved to ensure appropriate treatment for all children with malaria. Funding: US President's Malaria Initiative and Medicines for Malaria Venture.
Published: 2017
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9 results on '"Peter W. Gething"'

1. Mapping the global endemicity and clinical burden of Plasmodium vivax, 2000–17: a spatial and temporal modelling study

2. Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

3. Improving disaggregation models of malaria incidence by ensembling non-linear models of prevalence

4. Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

5. Mapping diphtheria-pertussis-tetanus vaccine coverage in Africa, 2000–2016: a spatial and temporal modelling study

6. Mapping under-5 and neonatal mortality in Africa, 2000-15: a baseline analysis for the Sustainable Development Goals

7. Population coverage of artemisinin-based combination treatment in children younger than 5 years with fever and Plasmodium falciparum infection in Africa, 2003-2015: a modelling study using data from national surveys

8. India's invisible malaria burden

9. Population coverage of artemisinin-based combination treatment in children younger than 5 years with fever and Plasmodium falciparum infection in Africa, 2003–2015: a modelling study using data from national surveys

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