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Background: Chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) is a heterogeneous disease; many patients never need treatment, whereas some have poor outcomes. New treatments, which can induce complete remissions, allow patients with poor outlook to be treated while they are still asymptomatic. Whether or not the IgVH gene is mutated is the best predictor of clinical outcome, but this assay is unsuited to the routine laboratory. The gene coding for ZAP-70, a tyrosine kinase protein normally expressed in T and NK cells, has been shown by gene-expression profiling to be differentially expressed between patients with mutated and unmutated IgVH genes. We assessed whether ZAP-70 could be used as a prognostic marker in CLL., Methods: We developed a flow cytometry assay for ZAP-70 protein expression and investigated its concordance with ZAP-70 mRNA expression, IgVH gene mutational status, and clinical outcome in 167 patients with CLL., Findings: We showed high concordance between ZAP-70 protein expression and IgVH gene mutations. 108 patients (65%) had mutated IgVH genes and were ZAP-70 negative; 46 (28%) had unmutated IgVH genes and were ZAP-70 positive. Findings were discordant in 13 patients: six (4%) had mutated IgVH genes but were ZAP-70 positive, and seven (4%) had unmutated IgVH genes and were ZAP-70 negative. Expression of mRNA showed 97% concordance with ZAP-70 protein. Median survival was 24.4 years (95% CI 15.1-33.8) in ZAP-70 negative patients and 9.3 years (7.0-11.5) in those who were ZAP-70 positive (hazard ratio 5.5, 2.8-.8)., Interpretation: ZAP-70 protein, which can be measured by flow cytometry in the general laboratory, is a reliable prognostic marker in CLL, equivalent to that of IgVH gene mutational status.

The presence or absence of somatic mutations in the expressed immunoglobulin heavy chain variable regions (IgVH) of chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) cells provides prognostic information. Patients whose leukemic cells express unmutated IgVH regions (Ig-unmutated CLL) often have progressive disease, whereas patients whose leukemic cells express mutated IgVH regions (Ig-mutated CLL) more often have an indolent disease. Given the difficulty in performing IgVH sequencing in a routine diagnostic laboratory, this prognostic distinction is currently unavailable to most patients. Pilot gene expression profiling studies in patients with CLL identified genes that were differentially expressed between the Ig-unmutated and Ig-mutated CLL subtypes. Here, we have profiled an expanded cohort of 107 patients and show that ZAP-70 is the gene that best distinguishes the CLL subtypes. Ig-unmutated CLL expressed ZAP-70 5.54-fold more highly than Ig-mutated CLL (P < 10(-21)). ZAP-70 expression correctly predicted IgVH mutation status in 93% of patients. ZAP-70 expression and IgVH mutation status were comparable in their ability to predict time to treatment requirement following diagnosis. In 7 patients, ZAP-70 expression and IgVH mutation status were discordant: 4 Ig-mutated CLLs had high ZAP-70 expression and 3 Ig-unmutated CLLs had low ZAP-70 expression. Among these ZAP-70 "outliers," those with Ig-mutated CLL had clinical features that are uncharacteristic of this CLL subtype: 2 required early treatment and 2 used a mutated VH3-21 gene, an IgVH gene that has been associated with progressive disease. We developed reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction and immunohistochemical assays for ZAP-70 expression that can be applied clinically and would yield important prognostic information for patients with CLL.

This study evaluates the prognostic significance of genetic abnormalities (detected at or shortly after presentation), clinical stage, lymphocyte morphology, CD38 expression, and IGVH gene status in 205 patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (B-CLL). Deletion of chromosome 11q23, absence of a deletion of chromosome 13q14, atypical lymphocyte morphology, and more than 30% CD38 expression are significantly associated with the presence of unmutated IGVH genes. Advanced stage, male sex, atypical morphology, more than 30% CD38 expression, trisomy 12, deletion of chromosome 11q23, loss or mutation of the p53 gene, and unmutated IGVH genes are all poor prognostic factors in a univariate analysis. However, only 98% or more homology of IGVH genes to the germline sequence, loss or mutation of the p53 gene, and clinical stage retain prognostic significance in a multivariate analysis. The median survival of patients with mutated IGVH genes, unmutated IGVH genes, and loss or mutation of the p53 gene regardless of IGVH gene status is 310, 119, and 47 months, respectively. These data should facilitate the design of new trials for the management of patients presenting with advanced disease or poor prognosis early stage disease.

Although the presence or absence of somatic mutations in the immunoglobulin variable region (IgV(H)) genes in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (B-CLL) identifies subtypes with very different prognoses, the assay is technically complex and unavailable to most laboratories. CD38 expression has been suggested as a surrogate marker for the 2 subtypes. IgV(H) mutations and CD38 expression in 145 patients with B-CLL with a long follow-up were compared. The 2 assays gave discordant results in 41 patients (28.3%). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that Binet stage, IgV(H) mutations and CD38 were independent prognostic indicators. Median survival time in patients whose cells had unmutated IgV(H) genes and expressed CD38 was 8 years; in those with mutated IgV(H) genes not expressing CD38, it was 26 years. For those with discordant results, median survival time was 15 years. Thus, although CD38 expression does not identify the same 2 subsets as IgV(H) mutations in CLL, it is an independent risk factor that can be used with IgV(H) mutations and clinical stage to select patients with B-CLL with the worst prognoses. Using cryopreserved cells taken at intervals during the course of the disease, however, changes of CD38 expression over time were demonstrated in 10 of 41 patients. Causes of the variation of CD38 expression require further study. Additional prospective studies are required for comparing CD38 expression with other prognostic factors and for taking sequential measurements during the course of the disease.