1. Is there seasonal variation in gallstone related admissions in England?
- Author
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Taib A, Killick R, Hussain K, Patel H, and Obeidallah MR
- Subjects
- Adolescent, Adult, England epidemiology, Hospitalization, Humans, Retrospective Studies, Seasons, Gallstones epidemiology, Gallstones surgery
- Abstract
Background: Gallstone related pathology (GRP) accounts for a significant proportion of general surgery admissions. The aim of this study is to investigate if seasonal variation for GRP admissions exist in England allowing improved resource allocation and planning., Methods: This multicentre retrospective cohort study included only emergency adult (≥18 years old) admissions to acute secondary care with ICD-10 codes associated with gallstones between 01/01/2010 to 31/12/2019 in England using Hospital Episode Statistics data. Seasons were defined according to United Kingdom Met Office., Results: A total of 396 879 GRP related admissions were recorded during the specified period, accounting for 1.44% of all emergency admissions. Our study suggests a significant seasonal peak in Summer (n = 102 620) based cumulative admissions per season and a linear regression model (p < 0.001), followed by Autumn (n = 102 267), then Spring (n = 97 807) and finally Winter (n = 94 185). Spectral analysis confirmed there is seasonality in the emergency GRP admissions every 12 months. A forecasting model was shown to be reliable; all observed admissions for 2019 were within the 95% prediction intervals for each month for the proportion of emergency GRP admissions., Conclusion: Resource allocation towards the Summer months to target seasonal peaks in GRP should be considered., (Copyright © 2021 International Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Association Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)
- Published
- 2021
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