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The analyses carried out within the Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessments (SPRAs) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) are affected by significant aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. These uncertainties have to be represented and quantified coherently with the data, information and knowledge available, to provide reasonable assurance that related decisions can be taken robustly and with confidence. The amount of data, information and knowledge available for seismic risk assessment is typically limited, so that the analysis must strongly rely on expert judgments. In this paper, a Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) framework for handling uncertainties in NPP SPRAs is proposed and applied to an example case study. The main contributions of this paper are two: (i) applying the complete DST framework to SPRA models, showing how to build the Dempster-Shafer structures of the uncertainty parameters based on industry generic data, and (ii) embedding Bayesian updating based on plant specific data into the framework. The results of the application to a case study show that the approach is feasible and effective in (i) describing and jointly propagating aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in SPRA models and (ii) providing ‘conservative’ bounds on the safety quantities of interest (i.e. Core Damage Frequency, CDF) that reflect the (limited) state of knowledge of the experts about the system of interest.

A two months common garden experiment was carried out to explore the potential differences of energy metabolism in northern core (France, 50°N and 47°N) vs southern peripheral (Portugal, 41°N) populations of European flounder Platichthys flesus, submitted to cold condition (CC: water temperature = 10 °C) and to warm and hypoxic condition (WHC: water temperature = 22 °C, and moderate hypoxia with O 2 saturation = 40% during the last 6 days). Convergent growth rates (in length) were observed in the different populations and conditions, when the southern peripheral population of Portugal did not grow under cold conditions. A general reduction in liver lipid storage was observed in all populations subjected to WHC when compared to CC, whereas muscle lipid storage was unaffected. The thermal and hypoxia treatment induced changes in muscle phospholipids (PL) ratios: phosphatidylserine/PL, phosphatidylinositol/PL, between northern and southern populations. Fish from northern estuaries displayed marked anaerobiosis in WHC (increased liver LDH activity) vs marked aerobiosis under CC (higher muscle CS and CCO activities). Contrariwise, fish from the southern estuary displayed equilibrium between anaerobiosis and aerobiosis activities in WHC. Flounders from the southern population exhibited generally lower G6PDH activity (proxy for anabolism and for defense against oxidative damage), tissue-specific anaerobiosis response (muscle LDH activity) and lower CS and CCO muscle activities (aerobiosis markers) when compared to northern populations. Globally, these inter-population differences in bioenergetics suggest that southern peripheral vs northern core populations have developed differential capacity to cope with interacting stressors and that much of this variation is more likely due to local adaptation., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

In the context of global change, ectotherms are increasingly impacted by abiotic perturbations. Along the distribution area of a species, the populations at low latitudes are particularly exposed to temperature increase and hypoxic events. In this study, we have compared the proteomic responses in the liver of European flounder populations, by using 2-D electrophoresis. One southern peripheral population from Portugal vs two northern core populations from France, were reared in a common garden experiment. Most of the proteomic differences were observed between the two experimental conditions, a cold vs a warm and hypoxic conditions. Consistent differentiations between populations were observed in accumulation of proteins involved in the bioenergetics- and methionine-metabolisms, fatty acids transport, and amino-acid catabolism. The specific regulation of crucial enzymes like ATP-synthase and G6PDH, in the liver of the southern population, could be related to a possible local adaptation. This southern peripheral population is spatially distant from northern core populations and has experienced dissimilar ecological conditions; thus it may contain genotypes that confer resilience to climate changes., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)