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Background: Lyme disease (LD) and other tick-borne diseases are emerging across Canada. Spatial and temporal LD risk is typically estimated using acarological surveillance and reported human cases, the former not considering human behavior leading to tick exposure and the latter occurring after infection., Objectives: The primary objective was to explore, at the census subdivision level (CSD), the associations of self-reported tick exposure, alternative risk indicators (predicted tick density, eTick submissions, public health risk level), and ecological variables (Ixodes scapularis habitat suitability index and cumulative degree days > 0 °C) with incidence proportion of LD. A secondary objective was to explore which of these predictor variables were associated with self-reported tick exposure at the CSD level., Methods: Self-reported tick exposure was measured in a cross-sectional populational health survey conducted in 2018, among 10,790 respondents living in 116 CSDs of the Estrie region, Quebec, Canada. The number of reported LD cases per CSD in 2018 was obtained from the public health department. Generalized linear mixed-effets models accounting for spatial autocorrelation were built to fulfill the objectives., Results: Self-reported tick exposure ranged from 0.0 % to 61.5 % (median 8.9 %) and reported LD incidence rates ranged from 0 to 324 cases per 100,000 person-years, per CSD. A positive association was found between self-reported tick exposure and LD incidence proportion (ß = 0.08, CI = 0.04,0.11, p < 0.0001). The best-fit model included public health risk level (AIC: 144.2), followed by predicted tick density, ecological variables, self-reported tick exposure and eTick submissions (AIC: 158.4, 158.4, 160.4 and 170.1 respectively). Predicted tick density was the only significant predictor of self-reported tick exposure (ß = 0.83, CI = 0.16,1.50, p = 0.02)., Discussion: This proof-of-concept study explores self-reported tick exposure as a potential indicator of LD risk using populational survey data. This approach may offer a low-cost and simple tool for evaluating LD risk and deserves further evaluation., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare they have nothing to disclose., (Copyright © 2023. Published by Elsevier GmbH.)

Lyme disease (LD) risk is emerging rapidly in Canada due to range expansion of its tick vectors, accelerated by climate change. The risk of contracting LD varies geographically due to variability in ecological characteristics that determine the hazard (the densities of infected host-seeking ticks) and vulnerability of the human population determined by their knowledge and adoption of preventive behaviors. Risk maps are commonly used to support public health decision-making on Lyme disease, but the ability of the human public to adopt preventive behaviors is rarely taken into account in their development, which represents a critical gap. The objective of this work was to improve LD risk mapping using an integrated social-behavioral and ecological approach to: (i) compute enhanced integrated risk maps for prioritization of interventions and (ii) develop a spatially-explicit assessment tool to examine the relative contribution of different risk factors. The study was carried out in the Estrie region located in southern Québec. The blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis, infected with the agent of LD is widespread in Estrie and as a result, regional LD incidence is the highest in the province. LD knowledge and behaviors in the population were measured in a cross-sectional health survey conducted in 2018 reaching 10,790 respondents in Estrie. These data were used to create an index for the social-behavioral component of risk in 2018. Local Empirical Bayes estimator technique were used to better quantify the spatial variance in the levels of adoption of LD preventive activities. For the ecological risk analysis, a tick abundance model was developed by integrating data from ongoing long-term tick surveillance programs from 2007 up to 2018. Social-behavioral and ecological components of the risk measures were combined to create vulnerability index maps and, with the addition of human population densities, prioritization index maps. Map predictions were validated by testing the association of high-risk areas with the current spatial distribution of human cases of LD and reported tick exposure. Our results demonstrated that social-behavioral and ecological components of LD risk have markedly different distributions within Estrie. The occurrence of human LD cases or reported tick exposure in a municipality was positively associated with tick density and the prioritization risk index (p < 0.001). This research is a second step towards a more comprehensive integrated LD risk assessment approach, examining social-behavioral risk factors that interact with ecological risk factors to influence the management of emerging tick-borne diseases, an approach that could be applied more widely to vector-borne and zoonotic diseases., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest None., (Crown Copyright © 2022. Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.)

Public health management of Lyme disease (LD) is a dynamic challenge in Canada. Climate warming is driving the northward expansion of suitable habitat for the tick vector, Ixodes scapularis. Information about tick population establishment is used to inform the risk of LD but is challenged by sampling biases from surveillance data. Misclassifying areas as having no established tick population underestimates the LD risk classification. We used a logistic regression model at the municipal level to predict the probability of I. scapularis population establishment based on passive tick surveillance data during the period of 2010-2017 in southern Quebec. We tested for the effect of abiotic and biotic factors hypothesized to influence tick biology and ecology. Additional variables controlled for sampling biases in the passive surveillance data. In our final selected model, tick population establishment was positively associated with annual cumulative degree-days > 0°C, precipitation and deer density, and negatively associated with coniferous and mixed forest types. Sampling biases from passive tick surveillance were controlled for using municipal population size and public health instructions on tick submissions. The model performed well as indicated by an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.92, sensitivity of 86% and specificity of 81%. Our model enables prediction of I. scapularis population establishment in areas which lack data from passive tick surveillance and may improve the sensitivity of LD risk categorization in these areas. A more sensitive system of LD risk classification is important for increasing awareness and use of protective measures employed against ticks, and decreasing the morbidity associated with LD., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest None., (Crown Copyright © 2022. Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.)

Immature Ixodes scapularis infestation and Borrelia burgdorferi infection of wild small mammals were studied from June to October in 2007 and from May to October in 2008 at 71 study sites in a zone where I. scapularis populations and environmental Lyme disease risk are emerging in southwestern Quebec. Seasonal host-seeking activity of immature I. scapularis was similar to patterns reported previously in Canada and the USA: nymphal activity peaked in spring while larval activity peaked in late summer. Synchronous activity of nymphs with some larvae was observed in late spring, which could favour establishment of B. burgdorferi strains that cause short-lived infections in their hosts. White-footed mice (Peromyscus leucopus), deer mice (P. maniculatus), chipmunks (Tamias striatus), and red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus) carried 92.0% of the larvae and 94.2% of the nymphs collected. Adult male white-footed mice carried significantly larger numbers of both larval and nymphal I. scapularis than other species and classes of small mammals (different demographic groups or physiological status: age, sex, sexual activity). We conclude that seasonality and host association were comparable to previous studies in North America, even in the context of a newly endemic pattern of low infection prevalence and low densities of host-seeking and feeding I. scapularis in southwestern Quebec. Our studies suggest that B. burgdorferi transmission cycles are focused on adult male mice (which carried 35% of all feeding ticks collected in the study), so control methods targeting this class of hosts may be particularly effective. However, our study also suggested that habitats containing a diverse host structure may dilute transmission cycles by partitioning of nymphal and larval ticks on different host species., (Copyright © 2011 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.)

The usual first-line treatment for Trypanosoma brucei gambiense sleeping sickness is melarsoprol, but when that fails the outlook has hitherto been grim. The polyamine synthesis inhibitor eflornithine (difluoromethylornithine, DFMO) has emerged as an alternative therapy. 207 patients with late-stage T b gambiense sleeping sickness were treated in rural Zaire with three different regimens of DFMO in an open-trial design. During treatment, trypanosomes disappeared from the CSF of all 87 patients in whom parasites had been seen before DFMO administration, and there was a sharp fall in CSF white cell count from a mean of 186/microliters to 21/microliters. 152 patients have been followed for at least a year after DFMO treatment, and only 13 (9%) have relapsed. Treatment failures were more common in children less than 12 years, among patients treated with oral DFMO only, and among patients who received DFMO as the initial treatment of their recently diagnosed trypanosomiasis. Toxicity was acceptable. Only 4 patients died during or shortly after treatment. Bone marrow suppression resulting in anaemia (43%) or leucopenia (53%) was common but bore little consequence. This open trial shows that DFMO is as active as and possibly less toxic than melarsoprol. For economic and logistic reasons DFMO may not be the first-choice therapy in rural Africa but for the vast majority of patients who relapse after melarsoprol DFMO will be curative.

26 patients with arseno-resistant Trypanosoma brucei gambiense trypanosomiasis were treated with difluoromethylornithine (eflornithine), an inhibitor of ornithine decarboxylase, given intravenously, then orally. There was rapid disappearance of trypanosomes in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), gradual decrease of CSF lymphocytosis, and parallel improvement in central nervous system status. Side-effects, including diarrhoea, anaemia, and hair loss, were common but tolerable and reversible. 5 patients died during or shortly after treatment. None of the 21 patients who completed therapy has had a relapse during the 6-30 month follow-up.

In a prospective randomised trial, 620 patients who had Trypanosoma brucei gambiense trypanosomiasis with central nervous system involvement were treated either with prednisolone plus melarsoprol or with melarsoprol only. 598 patients were evaluable: morbidity and death associated with melarsoprol-induced encephalopathy was reduced in patients who were given prednisolone. The two groups did not differ either in the incidence of other complications of melarsoprol therapy or in relapse rate after melarsoprol therapy. The cost of prednisolone would be outweighed by savings on the treatment of encephalopathies in such patients.