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58% of Nairobi's population live in informal settlements in extremely poor conditions. Household air pollution is one of the leading causes of premature death and disease in these settlements. Regulatory frameworks and government budgets for household air pollution do not exist and humanitarian organisations remain largely inattentive and inactive on this issue. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of potential indoor-air related policies, as identified together with various stakeholders, in lowering household air pollution in Nairobi's slums. Applying a novel approach in this context, we used participatory system dynamics within a series of stakeholder workshops in Nairobi, to map and model the complex dynamics surrounding household air pollution and draw up possible policy options. Workshop participants included community members, local and national policy-makers, representatives from parastatals, NGOs and academics. Simulation modelling demonstrates that under business-as-usual, the current trend of slowly improving indoor air quality will soon come to a halt. If we aim to continue to substantially reduce household PM 2.5 levels, a drastic acceleration in the uptake of clean stoves is needed. We identified the potentially high impact of redirecting investment towards household air quality monitoring and health impact assessment studies, therefore raising the public's and the government's awareness and concern about this issue and its health consequences. Such investments, due to their self-reinforcing nature, can entail high returns on investment, but are likely to give 'worse-before-better' results due to the time lags involved. We also discuss the usefulness of the participatory process within similar multi-stakeholder contexts. With important implications for such settings this work advances our understanding of the efficacy of high-level policy options for reducing household air pollution. It makes a case for the usefulness of participatory system dynamics for such complex, multi-stakeholder, environmental issues., (Copyright © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

In the first paper in this Series we assessed theoretical and empirical evidence and concluded that the health of people living in slums is a function not only of poverty but of intimately shared physical and social environments. In this paper we extend the theory of so-called neighbourhood effects. Slums offer high returns on investment because beneficial effects are shared across many people in densely populated neighbourhoods. Neighbourhood effects also help explain how and why the benefits of interventions vary between slum and non-slum spaces and between slums. We build on this spatial concept of slums to argue that, in all low-income and-middle-income countries, census tracts should henceforth be designated slum or non-slum both to inform local policy and as the basis for research surveys that build on censuses. We argue that slum health should be promoted as a topic of enquiry alongside poverty and health., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Massive slums have become major features of cities in many low-income and middle-income countries. Here, in the first in a Series of two papers, we discuss why slums are unhealthy places with especially high risks of infection and injury. We show that children are especially vulnerable, and that the combination of malnutrition and recurrent diarrhoea leads to stunted growth and longer-term effects on cognitive development. We find that the scientific literature on slum health is underdeveloped in comparison to urban health, and poverty and health. This shortcoming is important because health is affected by factors arising from the shared physical and social environment, which have effects beyond those of poverty alone. In the second paper we will consider what can be done to improve health and make recommendations for the development of slum health as a field of study., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Malaria is one of the greatest causes of mortality worldwide. Use of the most effective treatments for malaria remains inadequate for those in need, and there is concern over the emergence of resistance to these treatments. In 2010, the Global Fund launched the Affordable Medicines Facility--malaria (AMFm), a series of national-scale pilot programmes designed to increase the access and use of quality-assured artemisinin based combination therapies (QAACTs) and reduce that of artemisinin monotherapies for treatment of malaria. AMFm involves manufacturer price negotiations, subsidies on the manufacturer price of each treatment purchased, and supporting interventions such as communications campaigns. We present findings on the effect of AMFm on QAACT price, availability, and market share, 6-15 months after the delivery of subsidised ACTs in Ghana, Kenya, Madagascar, Niger, Nigeria, Uganda, and Tanzania (including Zanzibar)., Methods: We did nationally representative baseline and endpoint surveys of public and private sector outlets that stock antimalarial treatments. QAACTs were identified on the basis of the Global Fund's quality assurance policy. Changes in availability, price, and market share were assessed against specified success benchmarks for 1 year of AMFm implementation. Key informant interviews and document reviews recorded contextual factors and the implementation process., Findings: In all pilots except Niger and Madagascar, there were large increases in QAACT availability (25·8-51·9 percentage points), and market share (15·9-40·3 percentage points), driven mainly by changes in the private for-profit sector. Large falls in median price for QAACTs per adult equivalent dose were seen in the private for-profit sector in six pilots, ranging from US$1·28 to $4·82. The market share of oral artemisinin monotherapies decreased in Nigeria and Zanzibar, the two pilots where it was more than 5% at baseline., Interpretation: Subsidies combined with supporting interventions can be effective in rapidly improving availability, price, and market share of QAACTs, particularly in the private for-profit sector. Decisions about the future of AMFm should also consider the effect on use in vulnerable populations, access to malaria diagnostics, and cost-effectiveness., Funding: The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation., (Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Rapid population growth is a threat to wellbeing in the poorest countries, whereas very low fertility increasingly threatens the future welfare of many developed countries. The mapping of global trends in population growth from 2005-10 shows four distinct patterns. Most of the poorest countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, are characterised by rapid growth of more than 2% per year. Moderate annual growth of 1-2% is concentrated in large countries, such as India and Indonesia, and across north Africa and western Latin America. Whereas most advanced-economy countries and large middle-income countries, such as China and Brazil, are characterised by low or no growth (0-1% per year), most of eastern Europe, Japan, and a few western European countries are characterised by population decline. Countries with rapid growth face adverse social, economic, and environmental pressures, whereas those with low or negative growth face rapid population ageing, unsustainable burdens on public pensions and health-care systems, and slow economic growth. Countries with rapid growth should consider the implementation of voluntary family planning programmes as their main policy option to reduce the high unmet need for contraception, unwanted pregnancies, and probirth reproductive norms. In countries with low or negative growth, policies to address ageing and very low fertility are still evolving. Further research into the potential effect of demographic policies on other social systems, social groups, and fertility decisions and trends is therefore recommended., (Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)