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Background: Acute T-cell mediated rejection (TCMR) is usually indicated by alteration in serum-creatinine measurements when considerable transplant damage has already occurred. There is, therefore, a need for non-invasive early detection of immune signals that would precede the onset of rejection, prior to transplant damage. Methods: We examined the RT-qPCR expression of 22 literature-based genes in peripheral blood samples from 248 patients in the Kidney Allograft Immune Biomarkers of Rejection Episodes (KALIBRE) study. To account for post-transplantation changes unrelated to rejection, we generated time-adjusted gene-expression residuals from linear mixed-effects models in stable patients. To select genes, we used penalised logistic regression based on 27 stable patients and 27 rejectors with biopsy-proven T-cell-mediated rejection, fulfilling strict inclusion/exclusion criteria. We validated this signature in i) an independent group of stable patients and patients with concomitant T-cell and antibody-mediated-rejection, ii) patients from an independent study, iii) cross-sectional pre-biopsy samples from non-rejectors and iv) longitudinal follow-up samples covering the first post-transplant year from rejectors, non-rejectors and stable patients. Findings: A parsimonious TCMR-signature (IFNG, IP-10, ITGA4, MARCH8, RORc, SEMA7A, WDR40A) showed cross-validated area-under-ROC curve 0.84 (0.77–0.88) (median, 2.5th–97.5th centile of fifty cross-validation cycles), sensitivity 0.67 (0.59–0.74) and specificity 0.85 (0.75–0.89). The estimated probability of TCMR increased seven weeks prior to the diagnostic biopsy and decreased after treatment. Gene expression in all patients showed pronounced variability, with up to 24% of the longitudinal samples in stable patients being TCMR-signature positive. In patients with borderline changes, up to 40% of pre-biopsy samples were TCMR-signature positive. Interpretation: Molecular marker alterations in blood emerge well ahead of the time of clinically overt TCMR. Monitoring a TCMR-signature in peripheral blood could unravel T-cell-related pro-inflammatory activity and hidden immunological processes. This additional information could support clinical management decisions in cases of patients with stable but poor kidney function or with inconclusive biopsy results.

Background: Kidney transplant recipients (KTRs) with “operational tolerance” (OT) maintain a functioning graft without immunosuppressive (IS) drugs, thus avoiding treatment complications. Nevertheless, IS drugs can influence gene-expression signatures aiming to identify OT among treated KTRs. Methods: We compared five published signatures of OT in peripheral blood samples from 18 tolerant, 183 stable, and 34 chronic rejector KTRs, using gene-expression levels with and without adjustment for IS drugs and regularised logistic regression. Findings: IS drugs explained up to 50% of the variability in gene-expression and 20–30% of the variability in the probability of OT predicted by signatures without drug adjustment. We present a parsimonious consensus gene-set to identify OT, derived from joint analysis of IS-drug-adjusted expression of five published signature gene-sets. This signature, including CD40, CTLA4, HSD11B1, IGKV4–1, MZB1, NR3C2, and RAB40C genes, showed an area under the curve 0⋅92 (95% confidence interval 0⋅88–0⋅94) in cross-validation and 0⋅97 (0⋅93–1⋅00) in six months follow-up samples. Interpretation: We advocate including adjustment for IS drug therapy in the development stage of gene-expression signatures of OT to reduce the risk of capturing features of treatment, which could be lost following IS drug minimisation or withdrawal. Our signature, however, would require further validation in an independent dataset and a biomarker-led trial. Funding: FP7-HEALTH-2012-INNOVATION-1 [305147:BIO-DrIM] (SC,IR-M,PM,DSt); MRC [G0801537/ID:88245] (MPH-F); MRC [MR/J006742/1] (IR-M); Guy's&StThomas’ Charity [R080530]&[R090782]; CONICYT-Bicentennial-Becas-Chile (EN-L); EU:FP7/2007–2013 [HEALTH-F5–2010–260687: The ONE Study] (MPH-F); Czech Ministry of Health [NV19–06–00031] (OV); NIHR-BRC Guy's&StThomas' NHS Foundation Trust and KCL (SC); UK Clinical Research Networks [portfolio:7521].