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Background and purpose: Radical surgery is the standard of care for early rectal cancer. However, alternative organ-preserving approaches are attractive, especially in frail or elderly patients as these avoid surgical complications. We have assessed the efficacy of sole Contact X-ray Brachytherapy (CXB) treatment in stage-1 rectal cancer patients who were unsuitable for or declined surgery. Materials and methods: This retrospective multi-centre study (2009–2021) evaluated 76 patients with T1/2-N0-M0 rectal adenocarcinomas who were treated with CXB alone. Outcomes were assessed for the entire cohort and sub-groups based on the T-stage and the criteria for receiving CXB alone; Group A: patients who were fit enough for surgery but declined, Group B: patients who were high-risk for surgery and Group C: patients who had received prior pelvic radiation for a different cancer. Results: With a median follow-up of 26(IQR:12–49) months, initial clinical Complete Response (cCR) was 82(70–93)% with rates of local regrowth 18(8–29)%, 3-year actuarial local control (LC) 84(75–95)%, distant relapse 3 %, and no nodal relapse. 5-year disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were 66(48–78)% and 58(44–75)%. Lower OS was observed in Groups B [HR:2.54(95 %CI:1.17, 5.59), p = 0.02] and C [HR:2.75(95 %CI:1.15, 6.58), p = 0.03]. Previous pelvic radiation predicted lower cCR and OS. The main toxicity was G1-2 rectal bleeding (26 %) and symptoms of impaired anal sphincter function were not reported in any patients. Conclusion: CXB treatment alone achieved a high cCR rate with satisfactory LC and DFS. Inferior oncological outcomes were observed in patients who had received prior pelvic radiotherapy. CXB alone, with its favourable toxicity profile and avoidance of general anaesthesia and surgery risks, therefore, can be considered for patients who are unsuitable for or refuse surgery.

Background and Purpose: Tumor recurrence, a characteristic of malignant tumors, is the biggest concern for rectal cancer survivors. The epidemiology of the disease calls for a pressing need to improve healthcare quality and patient outcomes. Prediction models such as Bayesian networks, which can probabilistically reason under uncertainty, could assist caregivers with patient management. However, some concerns are associated with the standard approaches to developing these structures in medicine. Therefore, this study aims to compare Bayesian network structures that stem from these two techniques. Materials and Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed on 6754 locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients enrolled in 14 international clinical trials. Local tumor recurrence at 2, 3, and 5-years was defined as the endpoints of interest. Five rectal cancer treating physicians from three countries elicited the expert structure. The algorithmic structure was inferred from the data with the hill-climbing algorithm. Structural performance was assessed with calibration plots and area under the curve values. Results: The area under the curve for the expert structure on the training and validation data was above 0.9 and 0.8, respectively, for all the time points. However, the algorithmic structure had superior predictive performance over the expert structure for all time points of interest. Conclusion: We have developed and internally validated a Bayesian networks structure from experts’ opinions, which can predict the risk of a LARC patient developing a tumor recurrence at 2, 3, and 5 years. Our result shows that the algorithmic-based structures are more performant and less interpretable than expert-based structures.

Background and purpose: The use of external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) and contact X-Ray brachytherapy (CXB) is emerging as an effective alternative in patients with early stage rectal cancer with the intent of organ preservation (OP). Short course radiotherapy (SCRT) is an alternative EBRT schedule for patients not fit for chemotherapy or for longer courses of EBRT. There are no multicentre studies that have reported on the outcomes of SCRT with a CXB boost, therefore we present these from patients from centres from the UK and Sweden. Materials and methods: From the Guildford Colorectal Database or local databases, 258 patients who underwent SCRT and CXB with the intent of OP from five centres treated between 2007 and 2019 were identified. Response and survival data was analysed and presented. Results: With a median age of 81, 226 patients were treated with radiotherapy alone (RTA) and 32 immediately after local excision (ILE). Median follow-up was 24 months. 70% and 97% of patients in the RTA and ILE groups respectively had a complete clinical response (cCR) after SCRT with CXB. Of those, local relapse was seen in 16% of the RTA and 3% of the ILE group. Median survival was 40 months after CXB in the RTA and 52 months in the ILE group. 94% of patients remained stoma-free to the point of latest follow-up. Conclusion: This data suggests that CXB when combined with SCRT, in a mainly elderly and comorbid population, provides good palliation with stoma-avoidance. Oncological outcomes compare with previously published work. A greater focus is required on quality of life outcomes after OP.