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This study assesses the accuracy of estimating daily grass reference evapotranspiration (PM-ETo) using daily shortwave radiation (Rs) and reference evapotranspiration (ETREF) products provided by the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) geostationary satellite delivered by the Satellite Applications Facility on Land Surface Analysis (LSA-SAF) framework. The accuracy of using reanalysis ERA5 shortwave radiation data (Rs ERA5) provided by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is also evaluated. The assessments were performed using observed weather variables at 37 weather stations distributed across continental Portugal, where climate conditions range from semi-arid to humid, and 12 weather stations located in Azores islands, characterized by humid, windy and often cloudy conditions. This study’s use of data from a variety of climate conditions contributed to a unique and innovative assessment of the usability of LSA-SAF and ERA5 products for ETo estimation. The first assessment focused on comparing LSA-SAF estimates of Rs (Rs LSA-SAF) against ground stations (Rs ground). The results showed a good matching between the two Rs data sets for continental Portugal but a tendency for Rs LSA-SAF to under-estimate Rs ground in the cloudy islands of Azores. ETo values computed using Rs LSA-SAF data and observed temperature, humidity and wind speed (ETo LSA-SAF) were then compared with PMETo estimates with ground-based data, which were used as benchmark; input data of temperature and humidity needed for PM-ETo were quality checked for surface aridity effects. It was observed that ETo LSA-SAF is strongly correlated with PM-ETo (R2 > 0.97) for most locations in continental Portugal, with regression coefficient of a linear regression forced to the origin ranging between 0.95 and 1.05, mean root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.13 mm d􀀀 1, and Nash and Sutcliff efficiency of modeling (EF) above 0.95. For most Azores locations, ETo LSA-SAF over-estimated PM-ETo. This is likely a consequence of the high spatio-temporal heterogeneity of weather conditions that occur in these oceanic islands together with the different footprints of satellite (averaged over the pixel) and station observations. Reanalysis ERA5 shortwave radiation data presented similar behavior to the LSA-SAF products, however with slightly lower accuracy. The daily LSA-SAF ETREF product (ETREF LSA-SAF) was assessed and results have shown a good accuracy of this product, with acceptable RMSE and high EF values, for continental Portugal but a low accuracy for the Azores islands. A simplified bias correction approach was shown to improve both ETo derived from the LSA-SAF products, namely for Azores stations, which seem to be representative of smaller areas. The use of the FAO-PM temperature approach (PMT) was also assessed using the Rs LSA-SAF and Rs ERA5 data, which showed a superiority of the LSA-SAF product for ETo estimations (ETo PMT LSA-SAF). No significant differences (p < 0.05) were observed in terms of the median value of the RMSE when adopting ETo PMT and ETREF LSA-SAF. Differently, results showed that using the Rs LSA-SAF in the PMT approach (ETo PMT LSA-SAF) produces significantly better RMSE results than ETo PMT and ETREF LSA-SAF. Overall, the performed assessment allows concluding that the use of Rs LSA-SAF, and to a lesser extent the use of the Rs ERA5, highly improves the accuracy of computation of ETo when Rs observations are not available, including when only temperature data are accessible. The use of the ETREF LSA-SAF product is a good alternative when observed weather data are not available info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

[EN] It is widely accepted that the Mediterranean basin represents one of the most prominent hot spots of climate change and is a particularly vulnerable region in the world. Recent trends toward a hotter and drier climate appear to be related to changes in atmospheric circulation patterns, particularly over the western Mediterranean. The combined effects of precipitation decrease and surface-temperature increase in the Mediterranean will most probably lead to important changes in the region’s water cycle. In fact, the present tendency toward a drier climate with a higher frequency of drought events agrees with climate change scenarios that point to increasing probabilities of drought episodes and severe heat waves (HWs). Here, we provide a multidisciplinary review of the state-of-the-knowledge science of these two natural hazards in the Mediterranean. This chapter covers a wide range of atmospheric circulation phenomena with a direct impact on climate and socioeconomic activities in the twentieth century and with relatively high probabilities of changing significantly throughout the twenty-first century (e.g., water resources, renewable energy, agriculture, and vegetation dynamics) and also natural hazards (e.g., droughts, HWs, and sea surges and flooding in Venice).

Publisher Summary The Mediterranean climate is under the influence of both tropical and mid-latitude climate dynamics, being directly affected by continental and maritime air masses with significant origin differences. The peak of the winter season occurs between December and February, when the mid-latitude cyclone belt has usually reached its southernmost position. However, spring and autumn also contribute to a significant amount of precipitation. Being located at the southern limit of the North Atlantic storm tracks; the Mediterranean region is particularly sensitive to interannual shifts in the trajectories of mid-latitude cyclones that can lead to the remarkable anomalies of precipitation and, to a lesser extent, of temperature. Storm-track variability impacts primarily the western Mediterranean, but it hasa signature clearly detected in the eastern Mediterranean as well. The complex orography that characterizes most regions surrounding the Mediterranean basin can modulate and even distort climate anomaly patterns that otherwise would be geographically much more homogenous. Lack of water in winter and spring reflects in the crop yield. However, too much water in winter is harmful by drowning the seeds and retarding root development. The variability of precipitation plays a crucial role in the management of regional agriculture, in environment, in water resources and ecosystems, as well as social development and behavior.

Publisher Summary This chapter describes the evolution of research on cyclones in the Mediterranean region and their role on climate. The dynamics responsible for the formation and evolution of Mediterranean cyclones, the datasets available for their analysis, the methods for the cyclone identification, and the evaluation of the intensity of the cyclonic activity are also described in the chapter. The chapter discusses the climatology of cyclones, their characteristic spatial scales, seasonality, area, and genesis mechanisms; the relation between cyclonic activity and large-scale climate patterns; and the observed trends. The chapter describes the effects of cyclones on the Mediterranean environment, including their role on precipitation, winds, storm surge, ocean waves, and landslides. In the chapter, a description of the mechanism explaining the effects of cyclones on the specific phenomenon is presented and climate trends are discussed. The chapter reviews the available knowledge on cyclones and on their effects in the Mediterranean region.