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Global ocean warming, wave extreme events, and accelerating sea-level rise are challenges that coastal communities must address to anticipate damages in coming decades. The objective of this study is to undertake a time-series analysis of climate change (CC) indicators within the Bay of Biscay, including the Basque coast. We used an integrated and flexible methodology, based on Generalized Additive Mixed Models, to detect trends on 19 indicators (including marine physics, chemistry, atmosphere, hydrology, geomorphology, biodiversity, and commercial species). The results of 87 long-term time series analysed (~512,000 observations), in the last four decades, indicate four groups of climate regime shifts: 1) A gradual shift associated with CC starting in the 1980s, with a warming of the sea surface down to 100 m depth in the bay (0.10-0.25 °C per decade), increase in air temperature and insolation. This warming may have impacted on benthic community redistribution in the Basque coast, favouring warm-water species relative to cold-water species. Weight at age for anchovy and sardine decreased in the last two decades. 2) Deepening of the winter mixed layer depth in the south-eastern bay that probably led to increases in nutrients, surface oxygen, and chlorophyll concentration. Current increases on chlorophyll and zooplankton (i.e., copepods) biomass are contrary to those expected under CC scenarios in the region. 3) Sea-level rise (1.5-3.5 cm per decade since 1990s), associated with CC. 4) Increase of extreme wave height events of 16.8 cm per decade in the south-eastern bay, probably related to stormy conditions in the last decade, with impacts on beach erosion. Estimating accurate rates of sea warming, sea-level rise, extreme events, and foreseeing the future pathways of marine productivity, are key to define the best adaptation measures to minimize negative CC impacts in the region., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Using a long-term (1995-2014) monitoring network, from 51 sampling stations in estuaries and coasts of the Basque Country (Bay of Biscay), the objective of this investigation was to assess the responsiveness of 83 variables in water (18), sediments (27), biota (26), phytoplankton (2), macroinvertebrates (5) and fishes (5) to different human pressures and management actions. We used a total of 3247 series of data to analyse trends of improvement and worsening in quality. In a high percentage of the cases, the management actions taken have resulted in positive effects in the environment, as shown by the trend analysis in this investigation. Overall, much more trends of improvement than of worsening have been observed; this is true for almost all the media and biological components studied, with the exception of phytoplankton; and it applies as well to almost all the stations and water bodies, with the exception of those corresponding to areas with water treatment pending of accomplishment. In estuaries with decreasing human pressures during the period, the percentage of series showing quality improvement was higher (approx. 30%) than those showing worsening of quality (12%). Moreover, in those water bodies showing an increase of pressure, variables which can be considered indicators of anthropogenic effects showed negative trends (quality worsening). On the other hand, some of the variables analysed were more affected by natural variability than by changes in pressures. That was the case of silicate, nitrate and suspended solids, which followed trends correlated to salinity, which, in turn, was related to the rainfall regime during the study period., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Estuaries are subjected to multiple anthropogenic stressors, which have additive, antagonistic or synergistic effects. Current challenges include the use of large databases of biological monitoring surveys (e.g. the European Water Framework Directive) to help environmental managers prioritizing restoration measures. This study investigated the impact of nine stressor categories on the fish ecological status derived from 90 estuaries of the North East Atlantic countries. We used a random forest model to: 1) detect the dominant stressors and their non-linear effects; 2) evaluate the ecological benefits expected from reducing pressure from stressors; and 3) investigate the interactions among stressors. Results showed that largest restoration benefits were expected when mitigating water pollution and oxygen depletion. Non-additive effects represented half of pairwise interactions among stressors, and antagonisms were the most common. Dredged sediments, flow changes and oxygen depletion were predominantly implicated in non-additive interactions, whereas the remainder stressors often showed additive impacts. The prevalence of interactive impacts reflects a complex scenario for estuaries management; hence, we proposed a step-by-step restoration scheme focusing on the mitigation of stressors providing the maximum of restoration benefits under a multi-stress context., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Investigations on setting benthic macroinvertebrates reference conditions in natural waters have increased recently. Under the European Water Framework Directive, importance is given to research in morphological heavily-modified water bodies (HMWBs), which are very common in countries with high human pressure. However, research has not been undertaken on setting the maximum ecological potential (MEP), as a reference in HMWB. The objective of the present investigation is to set the MEP of two metrics (diversity and richness), used in assessing the ecological status in different benthic indices. The Oiartzun estuary (Basque Country) is used as a case study, which changed morphologically in the 19th Century, following harbour construction. Data obtained from 1874 and the present were used to model changes in currents, water residence time, salinity, volume, and intertidal area. Benthic macroinvertebrate data, from 1995 to 2011, were used to predict 19th Century and present MEP. Changes in the estuary were described: loss of all of the intertidal areas; doubling of the volume; residence time, changing from 2 to 95 days; current velocity reduced by 50%; salinity increase. All these factors have led to changes in the benthic communities and the structural variables. Predicted richness and diversity, for 1874, were lower (48-76%) than those at present. Taking into account the differences between natural and modified waters, it is proposed to utilize 75% of the natural reference conditions, as the MEP values for Basque HMWB., (Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

The implementation of water quality European Directives requires an intensification of water quality monitoring, within the limits of the Exclusive Economic Zone. Remote sensing technologies can provide a valuable tool for frequent, synoptic, water-quality observations, over large areas. The aim of this study is to assess the ecological status of Basque coastal water bodies using satellite imagery from MODIS sensor, together with optical and chlorophyll-ain situ measurements. Thus, sea surface satellite-derived chl-a algorithms, the OC3 M, OC5 and a Local empirical algorithm, were compared against in situ measurements using satellite in situ match-ups, 90th Percentile (P90) monthly values for the 2005-2010 period. The OC5 algorithm corresponded most accurately with in situ measurements performed in the area, hence, it was selected. A P90 chlorophyll-a map was created with this algorithm to apply the classification scheme required by the directives. The classification of water bodies, based upon satellite-derived chlorophyll-a, could improve considerably the assessment of water quality., (Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)