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Since the emergence of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), mathematical modelling has become an important tool for planning strategies to combat the pandemic by supporting decision-making and public policies, as well as allowing an assessment of the effect of different intervention scenarios. A proliferation of compartmental models were developed by the mathematical modelling community in order to understand and make predictions about the spread of COVID-19. While compartmental models are suitable for simulating large populations, the underlying assumption of a well-mixed population might be problematic when considering non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) which have a major impact on the connectivity between individuals in a population. Here we propose a modification to an extended age-structured SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered) framework, with dynamic transmission modelled using contact matrices for various settings in Brazil. By assuming that the mitigation strategies for COVID-19 affect the connections among different households, network percolation theory predicts that the connectivity among all households decreases drastically above a certain threshold of removed connections. We incorporated this emergent effect at population level by modulating home contact matrices through a percolation correction function, with the few additional parameters fitted to hospitalisation and mortality data from the city of São Paulo. Our model with percolation effects was better supported by the data than the same model without such effects. By allowing a more reliable assessment of the impact of NPIs, our improved model provides a better description of the epidemiological dynamics and, consequently, better policy recommendations., (Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Many theoretical models have been formulated to better understand the coevolutionary patterns that emerge from antagonistic interactions. These models usually assume that the attacks by the exploiters are random, so the effect of victim selection by exploiters on coevolutionary patterns remains unexplored. Here we analytically studied the payoff for predators and prey under coevolution assuming that every individual predator can attack only a small number of prey any given time, considering two scenarios: (i) predation occurs at random; (ii) predators select prey according to phenotype matching. We also develop an individual based model to verify the robustness of our analytical prediction. We show that both scenarios result in well known similar coevolutionary patterns if population sizes are sufficiently high: symmetrical coevolutionary branching and symmetrical coevolutionary cycling (Red Queen dynamics). However, for small population sizes, prey selection can cause unexpected coevolutionary patterns. One is the breaking of symmetry of the coevolutionary pattern, where the phenotypes evolve towards one of two evolutionarily stable patterns. As population size increases, the phenotypes oscillate between these two values in a novel form of Red Queen dynamics, the episodic reversal between the two stable patterns. Thus, prey selection causes prey phenotypes to evolve towards more extreme values, which reduces the fitness of both predators and prey, increasing the likelihood of extinction., (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

The warming of the Southern Ocean waters may affect the biological processes and the performance of the fish inhabiting it. The notothenioid group is metabolically specialized to low-temperature environments and may be vulnerable to the climatic changes imposed on the Antarctic continent. However, gradual temperature changes potentially allow an opportunity for plasticity adjustments. The present study evaluated the effect of gradual increase of temperature on the enzymatic and nonenzymatic parameters of energy metabolism in renal, branchial, hepatic, and encephalic tissue of Notothenia rossii subjected to a gradual temperature change of 0.5 °C/day until reaching 2 °C, 4 °C, 6 °C, and 8 °C. Under the effect of an acclimation rate of 0.5 °C/day, the gill tissue showed increased phosphofructokinase (PFK) enzyme activity. In the kidney, there was increased activity of the malate dehydrogenase (MDH), glucose-6-phosphatase (G6PDH), and glycogen phosphorylase (GP) enzymes. There was an increase in lactate concentration in the liver and an increase in GP enzyme activity in the brain. The specific tissue responses indicate the presence of thermal plasticity and an attempt to regulate energy metabolism to mitigate thermal stress in this species under these experimental conditions, possibly through the activation of glycolysis, gluconeogenesis, and glycogenolysis., (Copyright © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)