1. Patient-specific forecasting of postradiotherapy prostate-specific antigen kinetics enables early prediction of biochemical relapse
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Guillermo Lorenzo, Nadia di Muzio, Chiara Lucrezia Deantoni, Cesare Cozzarini, Andrei Fodor, Alberto Briganti, Francesco Montorsi, Víctor M. Pérez-García, Hector Gomez, and Alessandro Reali
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Oncology ,Biological sciences ,Systems biology ,Cancer ,Science - Abstract
Summary: The detection of prostate cancer recurrence after external beam radiotherapy relies on the measurement of a sustained rise of serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA). However, this biochemical relapse may take years to occur, thereby delaying the delivery of a secondary treatment to patients with recurring tumors. To address this issue, we propose to use patient-specific forecasts of PSA dynamics to predict biochemical relapse earlier. Our forecasts are based on a mechanistic model of prostate cancer response to external beam radiotherapy, which is fit to patient-specific PSA data collected during standard posttreatment monitoring. Our results show a remarkable performance of our model in recapitulating the observed changes in PSA and yielding short-term predictions over approximately 1 year (cohort median root mean squared error of 0.10–0.47 ng/mL and 0.13 to 1.39 ng/mL, respectively). Additionally, we identify 3 model-based biomarkers that enable accurate identification of biochemical relapse (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve > 0.80) significantly earlier than standard practice (p
- Published
- 2022
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