Plants rely on transcriptional dynamics to respond to multiple climatic fluctuations and contexts in nature. We analyzed the genome-wide gene expression patterns of rice (Oryza sativa) growing in rainfed and irrigated fields during two distinct tropical seasons and determined simple linear models that relate transcriptomic variation to climatic fluctuations. These models combine multiple environmental parameters to account for patterns of expression in the field of co-expressed gene clusters. We examined the similarities of our environmental models between tropical and temperate field conditions, using previously published data. We found that field type and macroclimate had broad impacts on transcriptional responses to environmental fluctuations, especially for genes involved in photosynthesis and development. Nevertheless, variation in solar radiation and temperature at the timescale of hours had reproducible effects across environmental contexts. These results provide a basis for broad-based predictive modeling of plant gene expression in the field. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.08411.001, eLife digest Plants need to be able to sense and respond to changes in temperature, light levels and other aspects of their environment. One way in which plants can rapidly respond to these changes is to modify how genes involved in growth and other processes are expressed. Therefore, understanding how this happens may help us to improve the ability of crops to grow when exposed to drought or other extreme environmental conditions. Most previous studies into the effect of the environment on plant gene expression have been carried out under controlled conditions in a laboratory. These findings cannot reflect the full range of gene expression patterns that occur in the natural environment, where multiple factors (e.g. sunlight, water, nutrients) may vary at the same time. Therefore, it is important to also analyze the effect of fluctuations in multiple environmental factors in more complex field experiments. Plessis et al. developed mathematical models to analyze the gene expression patterns of rice plants grown in the tropical environment of the Philippines using two different farming practices. One field of rice was flooded and constantly supplied with fresh water (referred to as the irrigated field), while the other field was dry and only received water from rainfall (the rainfed field). The experiments show that temperature and levels of sunlight (including UV radiation) have a strong impact on gene expression in the rice plants. Short-term variations in temperature and sunlight levels also have the most consistent effect across the different fields and seasons tested. However, for many genes, the plants grown in the irrigated field responded to the changes in environmental conditions in a different way to the plants grown in the rainfed field. Further analysis identified groups of genes whose expression combined responses to several environmental factors at the same time. For example, certain genes that responded to increases in sunlight in the absence of drought responded to both sunlight levels and the shortage of water when a drought occurred. The next step is to test more types of environments and climates to be able to predict gene expression responses under future climatic conditions. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.08411.002