1. Precipitação e produtividade de grãos em zonas de transição Cerrado-Amazônia no Brasil: probabilidade, distribuição espacial e sistemas sinóticos.
- Author
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Cordeiro Correa de Carvalho, Mairon Anderson, Morgan Uliana, Eduardo, Pontes da Silva, Bruce Francisco, da Silva Martins, Camila Aparecida, Fantin da Cruz, Ibraim, Venâncio Aires, Uilson Ricardo, and dos Santos Alves Mendes, Múcio André
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MAXIMUM likelihood statistics , *GAMMA distributions , *STOCHASTIC analysis , *SPATIAL behavior , *KRIGING , *STOCHASTIC models - Abstract
The research quantified the probable monthly, quarterly, and annual precipitation height and analyzed the synoptic systems intervening over time for an important grain producing region located in the Brazilian legal Amazon. Through stochastic and geostatistical analysis, the study estimated the probable height of rain, showed its seasonality, its spatial behavior and the months with extreme rainfall. For stochastic modelling of rain, the gamma distribution, the maximum likelihood method was used to estimate the parameters, and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test as an adhesion test. For spatialization of rain data, geostatistical modelling was performed using ordinary kriging as an interpolation method. We conclude that: there are two well-defined seasons in the middle north region of Mato Grosso (MNMT), a rainy one between October and April and a dry one between May and September; the months of April and October can be considered as months of transition between the two seasons; the months with the highest probable rainfall are December, January and February; the probable annual precipitation (PPA) in the MNMT region has an average value of 1622 mm, with a minimum of 1341 and a maximum of 1955 mm; the spatial distribution of rain is influenced by latitude and there is a tendency for the total to increase in the SE-NW direction. Finally, spatial analysis shows that the highest rainfall occurs in the north and northwest of the study area. The smallest, however, occur in the south and southeast of the area, mainly in the municipality of Nova Ubiratã. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2022
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