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Species distribution models (SDMs) have been criticized for involving assumptions that ignore or categorize many ecologically relevant factors such as dispersal ability and biotic interactions. Another potential source of model error is the assumption that species are ecologically uniform in their climatic tolerances across their range. Typically, SDMs treat a species as a single entity, although populations of many species differ due to local adaptation or other genetic differentiation. Not taking local adaptation into account may lead to incorrect range prediction and therefore misplaced conservation efforts. A constraint is that we often do not know the degree to which populations are locally adapted. Lacking experimental evidence, we still can evaluate niche differentiation within a species' range to promote better conservation decisions. We explore possible conservation implications of making type I or type II errors in this context. For each of two species, we construct three separate Max-Ent models, one considering the species as a single population and two of disjunct populations. Principal component analyses and response curves indicate different climate characteristics in the current environments of the populations. Model projections into future climates indicate minimal overlap between areas predicted to be climatically suitable by the whole species vs. population-based models. We present a workflow for addressing uncertainty surrounding local adaptation in SDM application and illustrate the value of conducting population-based models to compare with whole-species models. These comparisons might result in more cautious management actions when alternative range outcomes are considered.

Variation in mutualistic and antagonistic interactions are important sources of variation in population dynamics and natural selection. Environmental heterogeneity can influence the outcome of interactions by affecting the intensity of interactions, but also by affecting the demography of the populations involved. However, little is known about the relative importance of environmental effects on interaction intensities and demographic sensitivity for variation in population growth rates. We investigated how soil depth, soil moisture, soil nutrient composition, and vegetation height influenced the intensity of seed predation as well as host plant demography and sensitivity to seed predation in the perennial herb Primula farinosa. Intensity of seed predation ranged from 0% to 80% of seeds damaged among the 24 study populations and was related to soil moisture in two of four years. The effect of seed predation on plant population growth rate (lambda) ranged from negligible to a reduction in lambda by 0.70. Sensitivity of population growth rate to predation explained as much of the variation in the reductions in population growth rate due to seed predation as did predation intensity. Plant population growth rate in the absence of seed predation and sensitivity to predation were negatively related to soil depth and soil moisture. Both intensity of predation and sensitivity to predation were positively correlated with potential population growth rate and, as a result, there was no significant relationship between predation intensity and realized population growth rate. We conclude that in our study system environmental context influences the effects of seed predation on plant fitness and population dynamics in two important ways: through variation in interaction intensity and through sensitivity to the effects of this interaction. Moreover, our results show that a given abiotic factor can influence population growth rate in different directions through effects on potential growth rate, intensity of biotic interactions, and the sensitivity of population growth rate to interactions.

Theory predicts that, with conflicting selection pressures mediated by mutualists and antagonists, alternative reproductive strategies can be maintained by negative frequency-dependent selection if it results in rare-morph advantage. We combined field experiments and surveys of natural populations to determine whether selection on floral display is frequency dependent in the self-incompatible herb Primula farinosa, which is polymorphic for inflorescence height and occurs in a short-scaped and a long-scaped morph. Among short-scaped plants, both pollination success, quantified as initiation of fruits and seeds, and seed predation were positively correlated with the relative frequency of the long-scaped morph. The relative strength of these effects and the direction of the resulting frequency-dependent selection on scape morph varied among years and populations. The results suggest that both mutualists and antagonists may mediate frequency-dependent selection and that frequency dependence may vary from positive to negative with rare-morph advantage, depending on the relative strength of these interactions.

Population context should influence pollination success and selection on floral display in animal-pollinated plants because attraction of pollinators depends not only on the characteristics of individual plants, but also on the attractiveness of co-occurring conspecifics. The insect-pollinated herb Primula farinosa is polymorphic for inflorescence height. Natural populations may include both long-scaped plants, which present their flowers well above the soil surface, and short-scaped plants, with their flowers positioned close to the ground. We experimentally tested whether seed production in short-scaped P. farinosa varied with local morph frequency and surrounding vegetation height. In tall vegetation, short-scaped plants in polymorphic populations produced more fruit and tended to produce more seeds than short-scaped plants did in monomorphic populations. In low vegetation, population composition did not significantly affect fruit and seed output of short-scaped plants. The results suggest that long-scaped plants facilitate short-scaped plants in terms of pollinator attraction and that the facilitation effect is contingent on the height of the surrounding vegetation. The documented facilitation should contribute to the maintenance of the scape length polymorphism in ungrazed areas where litter accumulates and vegetation grows tall.