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Purpose: This study aimed to predict the risks of distant metastasis (DM) of locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients with pathological complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NACRT) and total mesorectal excision (TME), and to find the association between adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) and their survival outcomes. Methods and Materials: A total of 242 patients with LARC achieving pCR after NACRT were enrolled in this retrospective study. We developed a nomogram model using logistic regression analyses for predicting risk of DM. The model performance was evaluated by the concordance index and calibration curve. Survival was determined using Kaplan–Meier survival curve. Results: Age, pre-operative CEA, pre-treatment CEA and distance of tumor to anal verge were identified as significantly associated variables that could be enrolled in the model to predict the risk of DM for pCR patients. The nomogram we created had a bootstrapped-concordance index of 0.731 (95% CI = 0.627 to 0.834) and was well calibrated. The high risk group was more likely to develop DM than low risk group (total score) (95% CI = 1.439 to 6.493, P = 0.0036). The 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) for the low and high risk groups (total score ≤ 90 vs > 90) was 97.8%, 94.2%, 94.2% and 91.3%, 83.4%, 81.8%, respectively (P = 0.0036). DM occurred within 1 and 2 years after TME surgery was 33.3% and 55.6% for the low risk group, and 47.3% and 84.2% for the high risk group. The value of ACT was assessed among the whole cohort, patients with cT3-4, with cN+ or with either DM risk group, but no significant difference was observed concerning DMFS whether ACT was given or not (all P > 0.05). Active treatment after DM was more beneficial than palliative treatment (P < 0.001). Conclusion: The nomogram model, including age, pre-operative CEA, pre-treatment CEA and distance to anal verge, predicted the probability of DM among LARC patients achieving pCR after NACRT. The effects of ACT were not seen in different subgroups, while closer clinical follow-up may have greater contribution to pCR patients in the first 2 years, especially for patients with relatively higher risk to develop DM. It is suggested that timely active treatment can bring survival benefit for pCR patients developing DM after NACRT. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The purpose of this study was to investigate the value of the postsurgical pathological T and N (ypTN) category combined with the American Joint Committee on Cancer-tumor regression grade (AJCC-TRG) in evaluating the prognosis of neoadjuvant chemoradiation therapy (NeoCRT) for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) to screen for a subgroup of patients with the worst prognosis. Patients and methods: In total, 265 patients with LARC were enrolled in the trial. All patients received NeoCRT. Total mesorectal excision was performed 6–8 weeks after the completion of radiotherapy. The surgical specimens were re-evaluated based on the AJCC-TRG (seventh edition) and the AJCC-tumor-node-metastasis (TNM; seventh edition) systems. We followed up these patients and calculated their overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), local recurrence-free survival (RFS), and distant metastasis (DM)-free survival (MFS) rates through the Kaplan–Meier analysis. The logrank test was further applied to evaluate the predictive value of the ypTN stage combined with AJCC-TRG for several survival indexes. Results: The median follow-up period was 65.1 months. The 5-year OS, DFS, RFS, and MFS rates were 79.4%, 68.8%, 94.4%, and 76.5%, respectively. There were significant differences in OS, DFS, and MFS rates among different ypT+AJCC-TRG and ypN+AJCC-TRG subgroups. The 5-year OS, DFS, and MFS rates for ypT3–4+TRG 1 and ypT3–4+TRG2–3 subgroups were 73.9% vs 65.3%, 61.2% vs 52.9%, and 65.0% vs 61.5%, respectively. The 5-year OS, DFS, and MFS rates for ypN1–2+TRG 0–1 and ypN1–2+TRG2–3 subgroups were 64.8% vs 54.1%, 44.9% vs 41.7%, and 61.4% vs 46.3%, respectively. Conclusion: The ypTNM category combined with the AJCC-TRG can more accurately evaluate the prognosis of patients with LARC and identify the subgroup of patients with the worst prognosis and high risk of developing DM, thereby demonstrating clinical significance in guiding individualized postoperative adjuvant therapy and follow-up for LARC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]