1. TÜRKİYE'YE GELEN DOĞRUDAN YABANCI YATIRIMLARIN TÜRKİYE’NİN İHRACAT PERFORMANSINA ETKİLERİNİN VAR YÖNTEMİ İLE TAHMİNİ.
- Author
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E. Yasemin Bozdağlioğlu and Ömer Özpinar
- Subjects
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FOREIGN investments , *EXPORTS , *FOREIGN exchange rates , *INTEREST rates - Abstract
In this article the relationship between FDI inflow to Turkey and Turkey’s export performance is analyzed. The lack of studies in Turkey about this issue constitutes the main motivation behind this study. The effect of FDI on exports was analyzed through the Granger Causality Test (GCT) (for the period of 1992:1-2009:7) and the VAR Analyses. As a result of the GCT, a unidirectional causality from FDI to exports was found. According to the results of export variance decomposition, it is observed that exports are under the influence of exports' own lagged values. FDI plays 6 percent role in export changes. This finding corresponds to the finding that FDI causes exports. 74 percent of FDI changes arises from FDI, 10 percent from Interest Rates, and 8 percent from Exchange Rate. While Openness Ratio's explanatory level for FDI is 2 percent, other variables are not significant in explaining FDI changes. According to these results, interest rates in the country, exchange rates, and openness ratio are main incentives behind FDI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2011