Search

Using election results as our point of departure, this article places the 2016 presidential election in historical perspective. Trump's victory was an "expected" outcome, as races following two-terms of one party rule usually go to the opposition party. Trump also ran close to fellow Republicans competing for Congress despite his unusual relationship with many of those in the party he captured. Trump's victory in the presidential contest proved remarkably economical. He lost most of his votes relative to Romney in 2012 in places where it did not matter, while his opponent ran up the score in the states she already had locked down. We further measure the increasing geographic concentration of each major party's electoral support and consider how this relates to the controversy over the Electoral College. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This essay explores the scope of President Obama's re-election victory in 2012 by comparing it to previous presidential elections in American history. Three conclusions are drawn. First, Obama's margin of victory in 2012 is modest by historical standards, though Obama did make history by becoming the first re-elected President to lose both Electoral College votes and popular vote share between his first and second election. Next, despite some claims that challenger Mitt Romney squandered an easy opportunity to win, the historical record of incumbents seeking a second term suggests that the advantage always lay with President Obama. Finally, the 2012 election marked a further step in a changing pattern of presidential elections in which national margins of victory tend to be much smaller, state landslides are more numerous, and swings from one party to another between consecutive presidential elections are minimized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This essay explores the scope of the Democratic Party's victory in the 2008 elections by comparing it to other U.S. elections since 1896. Three conclusions are drawn from the analysis: (1) that Obama's personal victory, though significant, was far from being massive, or even unusual, by historical standards; (2) that the Democratic congressional victory of 2008, relative to the midterm election of 2006, falls in the upper range of congressional victories in a presidential year; (3) that the Democrats' victory becomes more impressive in light of its reversal of the 2004 election, which represented the high-water mark for Republicans since 1928. The essay also briefly considers whether and in what sense the Democrats' victory might have inaugurated a party realignment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This essay is an effort to delineate an important factor shaping the context of congressional and presidential leadership--the results of midterm elections--and to investigate the responses of leaders in the dramatic situation of the loss of majorities by the president's party in both houses of Congress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]