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This study presents an integrated approach to evaluate inundation risks, in which an algorithm is proposed to integrate the storm water management model (SWMM) into a geographical information system (GIS). The proposed algorithm simulates the flood inundation of overland flows and in metro stations for each designed scenario. It involves the following stages: (i) determination of the grid location and spreading coefficient and (ii) an iterative calculation of the spreading process. In addition, an equation is proposed to calculate the inundation around a metro station and to predict the potential inundation risks of the metro system. The proposed method is applied to simulate the inundation risk of the metro system in the urban centre of Shanghai under 50-year, 100-year, and 500-year rainfall intensities. Both inundation extent and depth are obtained and the proposed method is validated with records of historical floods. The results demonstrate that in the case of a 500-year rainfall intensity, the inundated area with a water depth excess of 300 mm covers up to 5.16 km2. In addition, four metro stations are inundated to a depth of over 300 mm.

A 1343-year tree-ring chronology was developed from Qilian junipers in the central Qilian Mountains of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP), China. The climatic implications of this chronology were investigated using simple correlation, partial correlation and response function analyses. The chronology was significantly positively correlated with temperature variables prior to and during the growing season, especially with monthly minimum temperature. Minimum temperature anomalies from January to August since AD 670 were then reconstructed based on the tree-ring chronology. The reconstruction explained 58% of the variance in the instrumental temperature records during the calibration period (1960–2012) and captured the variation patterns in minimum temperature at the annual to centennial timescales over the past millennium. The most recent 50 years were the warmest period, while 1690–1880 was the coldest period since AD 670. Comparisons with other temperature series from neighbouring regions and for the Northern Hemisphere as a whole supported the validity of our reconstruction and suggested that it provided a good regional representation of temperature change in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. The results of wavelet analysis showed the occurrence of significant quasi-periodic patterns at a number of recurring periods (2–4, 40–50, and 90–170 years), which were consistent with those associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and solar activity. The comparison between the reconstructed temperature and the index of tropical volcanic radiative forcing indicated that some cold events recorded by tree rings may be due to the impact of tropical volcanic eruptions.

Long-term climatic records are scarce in the northeast Asia for understanding the behavior of the East Asian Winter Monsoon. Here we describe a 250-year February–April temperature reconstruction (TCBM) based on tree-ring widths of Korean Pines from the Changbai Mountain area, Northeast China. The reconstruction can account for 45.7% of the temperature variance in the instrumental period (1953 to 2001). Four cold periods including 1784–1815, 1827–1851, 1878–1889 and 1911–1945, and two warm periods of 1750–1783 and 1855–1877 were identified before the instrumental period. Four shifts were also detected at 1781, 1857, 1878 and 1989. Good agreements between TCBM and other temperature records of East Asia suggest that the reconstruction is of good reliability and captures the regional cold/warm periods of East Asia. Moreover, TCBM shows negative correlations with the instrumental or proxy-based EAWM intensity records. The known weakening of the EAWM in the late 1980s is in agreement with the shift at 1989 in TCBM. These comparisons suggest that the February–April temperature reconstruction may be a good indicator of the EAWM intensity.