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Long-term, reliable datasets of satellite-based vegetation condition are essential for understanding terrestrial ecosystem responses to global environmental change, particularly in Australia, which is characterised by diverse ecosystems and strong interannual climate variability. We comprehensively evaluate several existing global Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) normalised-difference vegetation index (NDVI) products for their suitability for long-term vegetation monitoring in Australia. Comparisons with the MODIS NDVI highlight significant deficiencies, particularly over densely vegetated regions. Moreover, all the assessed products failed to adequately reproduce the interannual variability in the pre-MODIS era as indicated by Landsat NDVI anomalies. To address these limitations, we propose a new approach to calibrating and harmonising NOAA's Climate Data Record of AVHRR NDVI to the MODIS MCD43A4 NDVI for Australia using a gradient-boosting decision tree ensemble method. Two versions of the datasets are developed, one incorporating climate data in the predictors (“AusENDVI-clim”: Australian Empirical NDVI-climate) and another that is independent of climate data (“AusENDVI-noclim”). These datasets, spanning 1982–2013 at a spatial resolution of 0.05° and with a monthly time step, exhibit strong correlations (r2=0.89–0.94) and low mean errors compared with MODIS MCD43A4 NDVI (mean absolute error (MAE) = 0.014–0.028, RMSE = 0.021–0.046), accurately reproducing seasonal cycles over densely vegetated regions. Furthermore, they closely replicate the interannual variability in vegetation condition in the pre-MODIS era. A reliable method for gap-filling the AusENDVI record is also developed that leverages climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and woody-cover fraction predictors. The resulting synthetic NDVI dataset shows excellent agreement with the MODIS MCD43A4 NDVI and the recalibrated AVHRR NDVI time series (r2=0.82–0.95, MAE = 0.016–0.029, RMSE = 0.039–0.041). Finally, we provide a complete 41-year dataset where the gap-filled AusENDVI-clim from January 1982 to February 2000 is joined with the MODIS MCD43A4 NDVI from March 2000 to December 2022. Analysing 40-year per-pixel trends in Australia's annual maximum NDVI revealed increasing values, and shifts in the timing, of the annual peak NDVI across most of the continent, underscoring the dataset's potential to address crucial questions regarding the changing vegetation phenology and its drivers. The AusENDVI dataset can be used for studying Australia's changing vegetation dynamics and downstream impacts on the terrestrial carbon and water cycles, and it provides a reliable foundation for further research into the drivers of vegetation change. AusENDVI is open access and available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10802703 (Burton et al., 2024).

Measuring the spatiotemporal dynamics of lake and reservoir water storage is fundamental for assessing the influence of climate variability and anthropogenic activities on water quantity and quality. Previous studies estimated relative water volume changes for lakes where both satellite-derived extent and radar altimetry data are available. This approach is limited to only a few hundred lakes worldwide and cannot estimate absolute (i.e. total volume) water storage. We increased the number of measured lakes by a factor of 300 by using high-resolution Landsat and Sentinel-2 optical remote sensing and ICESat-2 laser altimetry, in addition to radar altimetry from the Topex/Poseidon; Jason-1, Jason-2 and Jason-3; and Sentinel-3 and Sentinel-6 instruments. Historical time series (1984–2020) of water storage could be derived for more than 170 000 lakes globally with a surface area of at least 1 km2, representing 99 % of the total volume of all water stored in lakes and reservoirs globally. Specifically, absolute lake volumes are estimated based on topographic characteristics and lake properties that can be observed by remote sensing. In addition to that, we also generated relative lake volume changes solely based on satellite-derived heights and extents if both were available. Within this dataset, we investigated how many lakes can be measured in near real time (2020–current) in basins worldwide. We developed an automated workflow for near-real-time global lake monitoring of more than 27 000 lakes. The GloLakes historical and near-real-time lake storage dynamics data from 1984 to current are publicly available through https://doi.org/10.25914/K8ZF-6G46 (Hou et al., 2022c) and a web-based data explorer (http://www.globalwater.online, last access: 12 December 2023).

We develop high-resolution (1 km) estimates of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) over the Australian continent for the period January 2003 to June 2022 by empirical upscaling of flux tower measurements. We compare our estimates with nine other products that cover the three broad categories that define current methods for estimating the terrestrial carbon cycle and assess if consiliences between datasets can point to the correct dynamics of Australia's carbon cycle. Our results indicate that regional empirical upscaling greatly improves upon the existing global empirical upscaling efforts, outperforms process-based models, and agrees much better with the dynamics of CO2 flux over Australia as estimated by two regional atmospheric inversions. Our nearly 20-year estimates of terrestrial carbon fluxes revealed that Australia is a strong net carbon sink of −0.44 PgC yr−1 (interquartile range, IQR = 0.42 PgC yr−1) on average, with an inter-annual variability of 0.18 PgC yr−1 and an average seasonal amplitude of 0.85 PgC yr−1. Annual mean carbon uptake estimated from other methods ranged considerably, while carbon flux anomalies showed much better agreement between methods. NEE anomalies were predominately driven by cumulative rainfall deficits and surpluses, resulting in larger anomalous responses from GPP than ER. In contrast, we show that the long-term average seasonal cycle is dictated more by the variability in ER than GPP, resulting in peak carbon uptake typically occurring during the cooler, drier austral autumn and winter months. This new estimate of Australia's terrestrial carbon cycle provides a benchmark for assessment against land surface model simulations and a means for monitoring of Australia's terrestrial carbon cycle at an unprecedented high resolution. We call this new estimate of Australia's terrestrial carbon cycle “AusEFlux” (Australian Empirical Fluxes).

Many thousands of large dam reservoirs have been constructed worldwide during the last 70 years to increase reliable water supplies and support economic growth. Because reservoir storage measurements are generally not publicly available, so far there has been no global assessment of long-term dynamic changes in reservoir water volumes. We overcame this by using optical (Landsat) and altimetry remote sensing to reconstruct monthly water storage for 6695 reservoirs worldwide between 1984 and 2015. We relate reservoir storage to resilience and vulnerability and investigate interactions between precipitation, streamflow, evaporation, and reservoir water storage. This is based on a comprehensive analysis of streamflow from a multi-model ensemble and as observed at ca. 8000 gauging stations, precipitation from a combination of station, satellite and forecast data, and open water evaporation estimates. We find reservoir storage has diminished substantially for 23 % of reservoirs over the three decades, but increased for 21 %. The greatest declines were for dry basins in southeastern Australia (−29 %), southwestern USA (−10 %), and eastern Brazil (−9 %). The greatest gains occurred in the Nile Basin (+67 %), Mediterranean basins (+31 %) and southern Africa (+22 %). Many of the observed reservoir changes could be explained by changes in precipitation and river inflows, emphasizing the importance of multi-decadal precipitation changes for reservoir water storage. Uncertainty in the analysis can come from, among others, the relatively low Landsat imaging frequency for parts of the Earth and the simple geo-statistical bathymetry model used. Our results also show that there is generally little impact from changes in net evaporation on storage trends. Based on the reservoir water balance, we deduce it is unlikely that water release trends dominate global trends in reservoir storage dynamics. This inference is further supported by different spatial patterns in water withdrawal and storage trends globally. A more definitive conclusion about the impact of changes in water releases at the global or local scale would require data that unfortunately are not publicly available for the vast majority of reservoirs globally.

A simple and effective two-step data assimilation framework was developed to improve soil moisture representation in an operational large-scale water balance model. The first step is a Kalman-filter-type sequential state updating process that exploits temporal covariance statistics between modelled and satellite-derived soil moisture to produce analysed estimates. The second step is to use analysed surface moisture estimates to impart mass conservation constraints (mass redistribution) on related states and fluxes of the model using tangent linear modelling theory in a post-analysis adjustment after the state updating at each time step. In this study, we assimilate satellite soil moisture retrievals from both Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) and Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) missions simultaneously into the Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model (AWRA-L) using the proposed framework and evaluate its impact on the model's accuracy against in situ observations across water balance components. We show that the correlation between simulated surface soil moisture and in situ observation increases from 0.54 (open loop) to 0.77 (data assimilation). Furthermore, indirect verification of root-zone soil moisture using remotely sensed Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) time series across cropland areas results in significant improvements from 0.52 to 0.64 in correlation. The improvements gained from data assimilation can persist for more than 1 week in surface soil moisture estimates and 1 month in root-zone soil moisture estimates, thus demonstrating the efficacy of this data assimilation framework.

Hydromorphological attributes such as flow width, water extent, and gradient play an important role in river hydrological, biogeochemical, and ecological processes and can help to predict river conveyance capacity, discharge, and flow routing. While there are some river width datasets at global or regional scales, they do not consider temporal variation in river width and do not cover all Australian rivers. We combined detailed mapping of 1.4 million river reaches across the Australian continent with inundation frequency mapping from 27 years of Landsat observations. From these, the average flow width at different recurrence frequencies was calculated for all reaches, having a combined length of 3.3 million km. A parameter γ was proposed to describe the shape of the frequency–width relationship and can be used to classify reaches by the degree to which flow regime tends towards permanent, frequent, intermittent, or ephemeral. Conventional scaling rules relating river width to gradient and contributing catchment area and discharge were investigated, demonstrating that such rules capture relatively little of the real-world variability. Uncertainties mainly occur in multi-channel reaches and reaches with unconnected water bodies. The calculated reach attributes are easily combined with the river vector data in a GIS, which should be useful for research and practical applications such as water resource management, aquatic habitat enhancement, and river engineering and management. The dataset is available at https://doi.org/10.25914/5c637a7449353 (Hou et al., 2019).

The lack of direct measurement of root-zone soil moisture poses a challenge to the large-scale prediction of ecosystem response to variation in soil water. Microwave remote sensing capability is limited to measuring moisture content in the uppermost few centimetres of soil. The GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) mission detected the variability in storage within the total water column. However, root-zone soil moisture cannot be separated from GRACE-observed total water storage anomalies without ancillary information on surface water and groundwater changes. In this study, GRACE total water storage anomalies and SMOS near-surface soil moisture observations were jointly assimilated into a hydrological model globally to better estimate the impact of changes in root-zone soil moisture on vegetation vigour. Overall, the accuracy of root-zone soil moisture estimates through the joint assimilation of surface soil moisture and total water storage retrievals showed improved consistency with ground-based soil moisture measurements and satellite-observed greenness when compared to open-loop estimates (i.e. without assimilation). For example, the correlation between modelled and in situ measurements of root-zone moisture increased by 0.1 (from 0.48 to 0.58) and 0.12 (from 0.53 to 0.65) on average for grasslands and croplands, respectively. Improved correlations were found between vegetation greenness and soil water storage on both seasonal variability and anomalies over water-limited regions. Joint assimilation results show a more severe deficit in soil water anomalies in eastern Australia, southern India and eastern Brazil over the period of 2010 to 2016 than the open-loop, consistent with the satellite-observed vegetation greenness anomalies. The assimilation of satellite-observed water content contributes to more accurate knowledge of soil water availability, providing new insights for monitoring hidden water stress and vegetation conditions.

River discharge measurements have proven invaluable to monitor the global water cycle, assess flood risk, and guide water resource management. However, there is a delay, and ongoing decline, in the availability of gauging data and stations are highly unevenly distributed globally. While not a substitute for river discharge measurement, remote sensing is a cost-effective technology to acquire information on river dynamics in situations where ground-based measurements are unavailable. The general approach has been to relate satellite observation to discharge measured in situ, which prevents its use for ungauged rivers. Alternatively, hydrological models are now available that can be used to estimate river discharge globally. While subject to greater errors and biases than measurements, model estimates of river discharge do expand the options for applying satellite-based discharge monitoring in ungauged rivers. Our aim was to test whether satellite gauging reaches (SGRs), similar to virtual stations in satellite altimetry, can be constructed based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) optical or Global Flood Detection System (GFDS) passive microwave-derived surface water extent fraction and simulated discharge from the World-Wide Water (W3) model version 2. We designed and tested two methods to develop SGRs across the Amazon Basin and found that the optimal grid cell selection method performed best for relating MODIS and GFDS water extent to simulated discharge. The number of potential river reaches to develop SGRs increases from upstream to downstream reaches as rivers widen. MODIS SGRs are feasible for more river reaches than GFDS SGRs due to its higher spatial resolution. However, where they could be constructed, GFDS SGRs predicted discharge more accurately as observations were less affected by cloud and vegetation. We conclude that SGRs are suitable for automated large-scale application and offer a possibility to predict river discharge variations from satellite observations alone, for both gauged and ungauged rivers.

Soil moisture affects the partitioning of water and energy and is recognized as an essential climate variable. Soil moisture estimates derived from passive microwave remote sensing can improve model estimates through data assimilation, but the relative effectiveness of microwave retrievals in different frequencies is unclear. Land Parameter Retrieval Model (LPRM) satellite soil moisture derived from L-, C-, and X-band frequency remote sensing were assimilated in the Australian Water Resources Assessment landscape hydrology model (AWRA-L) using an ensemble Kalman filter approach. Two sets of experiments were performed. First, each retrieval was assimilated individually for comparison. Second, each possible combination of two retrievals was assimilated jointly. Results were evaluated against field-measured top-layer and root-zone soil moisture at 24 sites across Australia. Assimilation generally improved the coefficient of correlation (r) between modeled and field-measured soil moisture. L- and X-band retrievals were more informative than C-band retrievals, improving r by an average of 0.11 and 0.08 compared to 0.04, respectively. Although L-band retrievals were more informative for top-layer soil moisture in most cases, there were exceptions, and L- and X-band were equally informative for root-zone soil moisture. The consistency between L- and X-band retrievals suggests that they can substitute for each other, for example when transitioning between sensors and missions. Furthermore, joint assimilation of retrievals resulted in a model performance that was similar to or better than assimilating either retrieval individually. Comparison of model estimates obtained with global precipitation data and with higher-quality, higher-resolution regional data, respectively, demonstrated that precipitation data quality does determine the overall benefit that can be expected from assimilation. Further work is needed to assess the potentially complementary spatial information that can be derived from retrievals from different frequencies.

A portion of globally generated surface and groundwater resources evaporates from wetlands, waterbodies and irrigated areas. This secondary evaporation of blue water directly affects the remaining water resources available for ecosystems and human use. At the global scale, a lack of detailed water balance studies and direct observations limits our understanding of the magnitude and spatial and temporal distribution of secondary evaporation. Here, we propose a methodology to assimilate satellite-derived information into the landscape hydrological model W3 at an unprecedented 0.05°, or ca. 5 km resolution globally. The assimilated data are all derived from MODIS observations, including surface water extent, surface albedo, vegetation cover, leaf area index, canopy conductance and land surface temperature (LST). The information from these products is imparted on the model in a simple but efficient manner, through a combination of direct insertion of the surface water extent, an evaporation flux adjustment based on LST and parameter nudging for the other observations. The resulting water balance estimates were evaluated against river basin discharge records and the water balance of closed basins and demonstrably improved water balance estimates compared to ignoring secondary evaporation (e.g., bias improved from +38 to +2 mm yr−1). The evaporation estimates derived from assimilation were combined with global mapping of irrigation crops to derive a minimum estimate of irrigation water requirements (I0), representative of optimal irrigation efficiency. Our I0 estimates were lower than published country-level estimates of irrigation water use produced by alternative estimation methods, for reasons that are discussed. We estimate that 16 % of globally generated water resources evaporate before reaching the oceans, enhancing total terrestrial evaporation by 6.1×1012 m3 yr−1 or 8.8 %. Of this volume, 5 % is evaporated from irrigation areas, 58 % from terrestrial waterbodies and 37 % from other surfaces. Model-data assimilation at even higher spatial resolutions can achieve a further reduction in uncertainty but will require more accurate and detailed mapping of surface water dynamics and areas equipped for irrigation.

Soil moisture plays a critical role in land surface processes and as such there has been a recent increase in the number and resolution of satellite soil moisture observations and the development of land surface process models with ever increasing resolution. Despite these developments, validation and calibration of these products has been limited because of a lack of observations on corresponding scales. A recently developed mobile soil moisture monitoring platform, known as the rover, offers opportunities to overcome this scale issue. This paper describes methods, results and testing of soil moisture estimates produced using rover surveys on a range of scales that are commensurate with model and satellite retrievals. Our investigation involved static cosmic-ray neutron sensors and rover surveys across both broad (36 × 36 km at 9 km resolution) and intensive (10 × 10 km at 1 km resolution) scales in a cropping district in the Mallee region of Victoria, Australia. We describe approaches for converting rover survey neutron counts to soil moisture and discuss the factors controlling soil moisture variability. We use independent gravimetric and modelled soil moisture estimates collected across both space and time to validate rover soil moisture products. Measurements revealed that temporal patterns in soil moisture were preserved through time and regression modelling approaches were utilised to produce time series of property-scale soil moisture which may also have applications in calibration and validation studies or local farm management. Intensive-scale rover surveys produced reliable soil moisture estimates at 1 km resolution while broad-scale surveys produced soil moisture estimates at 9 km resolution. We conclude that the multiscale soil moisture products produced in this study are well suited to future analysis of satellite soil moisture retrievals and finer-scale soil moisture models.

The coarse spatial resolution of global hydrological models (typically >  0.25°) limits their ability to resolve key water balance processes for many river basins and thus compromises their suitability for water resources management, especially when compared to locally tuned river models. A possible solution to the problem may be to drive the coarse-resolution models with locally available high-spatial-resolution meteorological data as well as to assimilate ground-based and remotely sensed observations of key water cycle variables. While this would improve the resolution of the global model, the impact of prediction accuracy remains largely an open question. In this study, we investigate the impact of assimilating streamflow and satellite soil moisture observations on the accuracy of global hydrological model estimations, when driven by either coarse- or high-resolution meteorological observations in the Murrumbidgee River basin in Australia. To this end, a 0.08° resolution version of the PCR-GLOBWB global hydrological model is forced with downscaled global meteorological data (downscaled from 0.5° to 0.08° resolution) obtained from the WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to ERA-Interim (WFDEI) and a local high-resolution, gauging-station-based gridded data set (0.05°). Downscaled satellite-derived soil moisture (downscaled from ∼  0.5° to 0.08° resolution) from the remote observation system AMSR-E and streamflow observations collected from 23 gauging stations are assimilated using an ensemble Kalman filter. Several scenarios are analysed to explore the added value of data assimilation considering both local and global meteorological data. Results show that the assimilation of soil moisture observations results in the largest improvement of the model estimates of streamflow. The joint assimilation of both streamflow and downscaled soil moisture observations leads to further improvement in streamflow simulations (20 % reduction in RMSE). Furthermore, results show that the added contribution of data assimilation, for both soil moisture and streamflow, is more pronounced when the global meteorological data are used to force the models. This is caused by the higher uncertainty and coarser resolution of the global forcing. We conclude that it is possible to improve PCR-GLOBWB simulations forced by coarse-resolution meteorological data with assimilation of downscaled spaceborne soil moisture and streamflow observations. These improved model results are close to the ones from a local model forced with local meteorological data. These findings are important in light of the efforts that are currently made to move to global hyper-resolution modelling and can help to advance this research.

We present a global water cycle reanalysis that merges water balance estimates derived from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission, satellite water level altimetry and off-line estimates from several hydrological models. Error estimates for the sequential data assimilation scheme were derived from available uncertainty information and the triple collocation technique. Errors in four GRACE storage products were estimated to be 11–12 mm over land areas, while errors in monthly storage changes derived from five global hydrological models were estimated to be 17–28 mm. Prior and posterior water storage estimates were evaluated against independent observations of river water level and discharge, snow water storage and glacier mass loss. Data assimilation improved or maintained agreement overall, although results varied regionally. Uncertainties were greatest in regions where glacier mass loss and subsurface storage decline are both plausible but poorly constrained. We calculated a global water budget for 2003–2012. The main changes were a net loss of polar ice caps (−342 Gt yr−1) and mountain glaciers (−230 Gt yr−1), with an additional decrease in seasonal snowpack (−18 Gt yr−1). Storage increased due to new impoundments (+16 Gt yr−1), but this was compensated by decreases in other surface water bodies (−10 Gt yr−1). If the effect of groundwater depletion (−92 Gt yr−1) is considered separately, subsurface water storage increased by +202 Gt yr−1 due particularly to increased wetness in northern temperate regions and in the seasonally wet tropics of South America and southern Africa. The reanalysis results are publicly available via www.wenfo.org/wald/.

Spatial water resource monitoring systems (SWRMS) can provide valuable information in support of water management, but current operational systems are few and provide only a subset of the information required. Necessary innovations include the explicit description of water redistribution and water use from river and groundwater systems, achieving greater spatial detail (particularly in key features such as irrigated areas and wetlands), and improving accuracy as assessed against hydrometric observations, as well as assimilating those observations. The Australian water resources assessment (AWRA) system aims to achieve this by coupling landscape models with models describing surface water and groundwater dynamics and water use. A review of operational and research applications demonstrates that satellite observations can improve accuracy and spatial detail in hydrological model estimation. All operational systems use dynamic forcing, land cover classifications and a priori parameterisation of vegetation dynamics that are partially or wholly derived from remote sensing. Satellite observations are used to varying degrees in model evaluation and data assimilation. The utility of satellite observations through data assimilation can vary as a function of dominant hydrological processes. Opportunities for improvement are identified, including the development of more accurate and higher spatial and temporal resolution precipitation products, and the use of a greater range of remote sensing products in a priori model parameter estimation, model evaluation and data assimilation. Operational challenges include the continuity of research satellite missions and data services, and the need to find computationally-efficient data assimilation techniques. The successful use of observations critically depends on the availability of detailed information on observational error and understanding of the relationship between remotely-sensed and model variables, as affected by conceptual discrepancies and spatial and temporal scaling.