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This work deals with reconstructing firn layer thicknesses at the deposition time from the firn's observed thickness in ice cores, thus reconstructing the annual accumulation, yielding a timescale and an ice-core chronology. We employed a dynamic time warping algorithm to find an optimal, non-linear alignment between an H2O2 concentration data series from 98 m worth of ice cores of a borehole on the central ice divide of the Detroit Plateau, the Antarctic Peninsula, and an estimated local temperature time series. The viability and the physical reliability of the procedure are rooted in the robustness of the seasonal marker H2O2 in a high-accumulation context, which brought the entire borehole to within the operational life span of four Antarctic stations around the Antarctic Peninsula. The process was heavily based on numerical optimisation, producing a mathematically sound match between the two series to estimate the annual layering efficiently on the entire data section at once, being disposition-free. The results herein confirm a high annual accumulation rate of aN=2.8 m w.e./yr, which is of the same order of magnitude as and highly correlated with that of the Bruce Plateau and twice as large as that of the Gomez Plateau, 300 and 1200 km further south, respectively.

We employ JRA-55 (Japanese 55-year Reanalysis), a recent second-generation global reanalysis providing data of high quality in the stratosphere, to examine whether a distinguishable effect of geomagnetic activity on Northern Hemisphere stratospheric temperatures can be detected. We focus on how the statistical significance of stratospheric temperature differences may be robustly assessed during years with high and low geomagnetic activity. Two problems must be overcome. The first is the temporal autocorrelation of the data, which is addressed with a correction of the t statistics by means of the estimate of the number of independent values in the series of correlated values. The second is the problem of multiplicity due to strong spatial autocorrelations, which is addressed by means of a false discovery rate (FDR) procedure. We find that the statistical tests fail to formally reject the null hypothesis, i.e. no significant response to geomagnetic activity can be found in the seasonal-mean Northern Hemisphere stratospheric temperature record.

The highest currently recognised air temperature (33.3 °C) ever recorded in the Republic of Ireland was logged at Kilkenny Castle in 1887. The original observational record however no longer exists. Given that Ireland is now the only country in Europe to have a national heat record set in the 19th century, a reassessment of the verity of this record is both timely and valuable. The present analysis undertakes a fundamental reassessment of the plausibility of the 1887 temperature record using methods similar to those used to assess various weather extremes under WMO auspices over recent years. Specifically, we undertake an inter-station reassessment using sparse available records and make recourse to the new and improved 20CRv3 sparse-input reanalysis product. Neither surrounding available stations nor the reanalysis offer substantive support for the Kilkenny record of 33.3 °C being correct. Moreover, recent data rescue efforts have uncovered several earlier extreme values, one of which exceeds the Kilkenny value (33.5 °C on 16th July 1876 recorded at the Phoenix Park). However, the sparsity of early observational networks, a distinct lack of synoptic support from 20CRv3 for many of the extreme heat values, and the fact that these measurements were obtained using non-standard exposures leads us to conclude that there is grossly insufficient evidence to support any of these 19th Century extremes as robust national heat record candidates. Data from the early 20th Century onwards benefits from a denser network of stations undertaking measurements in a more standardised manner, many under the direct auspices of Met Éireann and its predecessors, adhering to WMO guidance and protocols. This enables more robust cross-checking of records. We argue that the Met Éireann recognised 20th Century heat record from Boora in 1976 verifies as the most plausible robust national temperature record based upon the synoptic situation and comparisons with nearby neighbouring stations. This measurement of 32.5 °C thus likely constitutes the highest reliably recorded temperature measurement in the Republic of Ireland. Ultimately, the formal decision on any reassessment and reassignment of the national record rests with the national meteorological service, Met Éireann.

TEX86 is a paleothermometer based on Thaumarcheotal glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether (GDGT) lipids and is one of the most frequently used proxies for sea-surface temperature (SST) in warmer-than-present climates. However, the calibration of TEX86 to SST is controversial because its correlation to SST is not significantly stronger than that to depth-integrated surface to subsurface temperatures. Because GDGTs are not exclusively produced in and exported from the surface ocean, sedimentary GDGTs may contain a depth-integrated signal that is sensitive to local subsurface temperature variability, which can only be proved in downcore studies. Here, we present a 15 Myr TEX86 record from ODP Site 959 in the Gulf of Guinea and use additional proxies to elucidate the source of the recorded TEX86 variability. Relatively high GDGT[2/3] ratio values from 13.6 Ma indicate that sedimentary GDGTs were partly sourced from deeper (> 200 m) waters. Moreover, late Pliocene TEX86 variability is highly sensitive to glacial-interglacial cyclicity, as is also recorded by benthic δ18O, while the variability within dinoflagellate assemblages and surface/thermocline temperature records (Uk’37 and Mg/Ca), is not primarily explained by glacial-interglacial cyclicity. Combined, these observations are best explained by TEX86 sensitivity to sub-thermocline temperature variability. We conclude that the TEX86 record represents a depth-integrated signal that incorporates a SST and a deeper component, which is compatible the present-day depth distribution of Thaumarchaeota and with the GDGT[2/3] distribution in core tops. The depth-integrated TEX86 record can potentially be used to infer SST variability, because subsurface temperature variability is generally tightly linked to SST variability. Using a subsurface calibration with peak calibration weight between 100–350 m, we estimate that east equatorial Atlantic SST cooled by ~4.5 °C between the Late Miocene and Pleistocene. On shorter timescales, we use the TEX86 record as an Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) proxy and evaluate climatological leads and lags around the Pliocene M2 glacial (~3.3 Ma). Our record, combined with published information, suggests that the M2 glacial was marked by AAIW cooling during an austral summer insolation minimum, and that decreasing CO2 levels were a feedback, not the initiator, of glacial expansion.

Extreme cold weather events, such as the winter of 1962/63, the third coldest winter ever recorded in the Central England Temperature record, or more recently the winter of 2010/11, have significant consequences for the society and economy. This paper assesses the probability of such extreme cold weather across the United Kingdom (UK), as part of a probabilistic catastrophe model for insured losses caused by the bursting of pipes. A statistical model is developed in order to model the extremes of the Air Freezing Index (AFI), which is a common measure of the magnitude and duration of freezing temperatures. A novel approach in the modelling of the spatial dependence of the hazard has been followed which takes advantage of the vine copula methodology. The method allows complex dependencies to be modelled, especially between the tails of the AFI distributions, which is important to assess the extreme behaviour of such events. The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation and of anthropogenic climate change on the frequency of UK cold winters has also been taken into account. According to the model, the occurrence of extreme cold events, such as the 1962/63 winter, has decreased approximately 2 times during the course of the 20th century as a result of anthropogenic climate change. Furthermore, the model predicts that such an event is expected to become more uncommon, about 2 times less frequent, by the year 2030. Extreme cold spells in the UK have been found to be heavily modulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) as well. A cold event is estimated to be ≈3–4 times more likely to occur during its negative phase than its positive phase. However, considerable uncertainty exists in these results, owing mainly to the short record length and the large interannual variability of the AFI.

The Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT) is a widely recognized global climate shift occurring between approximately 1,250 to 700 ka. At this time, Earth's climate underwent a major transition from dominant 40 kyr glacial-interglacial cycles to quasi-100 kyr cycles. The cause of the MPT remains a puzzling aspect of Pleistocene climate. Presently, there are few, if any, continuous MPT records from the Arctic yet understanding the role and response of the high latitudes to the MPT is required to better evaluate the causes of this climatic shift. Here, we present new continental biomarker records of temperature and vegetation spanning 1,142 to 752 ka from Lake El'gygytgyn (Far East Russia). We reconstruct warm-season temperature variations across the MPT based on branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) using the MBTʹ5ME proxy. The new Arctic temperature record does not display an overall cooling trend during the MPT but does exhibit strong glacial-interglacial cyclicity. Spectral analysis demonstrates persistent obliquity and precession pacing over the study interval and reveals substantial sub-orbital temperature variations at ~900 kyr during the first “skipped” interglacial. Interestingly, Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 31, which is widely recognized as a particularly warm interglacial, does not exhibit exceptional warmth at Lake El'gygytgyn. Instead, we find that MIS 29, 27 and 21 were as warm or warmer than MIS 31. In particular, MIS 21 (~870 to 820 ka) stands out as an especially warm and long interglacial in the continental Arctic while MIS 25 is a notably cold interglacial. Throughout the MPT, Lake El'gygytgyn pollen data exhibits a long-term drying trend, with a shift to an increasingly open landscape noted after around 900 ka (Zhao et al., 2018), which is also reflected in our higher plant leaf wax (n-alkane) distributions. Although the mechanisms driving the MPT remain a matter of debate, our new climate records from the continental Arctic exhibit some similarities to changes noted around the North Pacific region. Overall, the new organic geochemical data from Lake El'gygytgyn contribute to expanding our knowledge of the high-latitude response to the MPT.

The Miocene experienced both, ice-house periods with continental ice-sheets covering both poles and warm greenhouse conditions with strongly increased global temperature, glacier retreat and sea-level rise. The Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum (MMCO) is the most pronounced warming event in the last 24 Ma, standing out in a time of protracted cooling. The MMCO is marked by a period of intensive global warming between ca. 17 and 15 Ma. The subsequent Mid-Miocene Climate Transition (MMCT), in contrast, was affected by global temperature decline, growth of Antarctic ice sheets, sea level fall and marine biota overturn.Miocene climate conditions were intensely studied on both, global and regional scales, based on i.a. marine isotope records and continental paleobotanical and mammalian fossil data sets. Despite the dense data sets continental Miocene temperature evolution still remains unclear owing to a large range of inferred temperatures and/or poor age constraints of the associated records.Here, we present a long-term terrestrial climate record that covers the time interval between ~20 and ~13 Ma and is based on stable (δ18O) and clumped isotope (Δ47) geochemical data. We apply Δ47 thermometry on terrestrial foreland basin sediments to reconstruct the Middle Miocene continental temperature evolution for central Europe. Pedogenic carbonates from well dated fossil soils from several sites in the Northern Alpine Foreland Basin (Switzerland) reveal warm and stable temperatures for the early Miocene (20 – 19 Ma), followed by overall strongly enhanced variability in temperatures with maximum values attained between ca. 17 and 14 Ma. We observe a highly dynamic transition to cooler climates at the end of the MMCO and a subsequent rapid temperature decline of approximately 20°C after 14 Ma during the MMCT. The highly variable temperature patterns during the cooling period coincide with phases of high seasonality in the precipitation pattern as derived from oxygen isotope compositions of soil water.

We examine what can be learnt about climate sensitivity from variability in the surface air temperature record over the instrumental period, from around 1880 to the present. While many previous studies have used trends in observational time series to constrain equilibrium climate sensitivity, it has also been argued that temporal variability may also be a powerful constraint. We explore this question in the context of a simple widely used energy balance model of the climate system. We consider two recently proposed summary measures of variability and also show how the full information content can be optimally used in this idealised scenario. We find that the constraint provided by variability is inherently skewed, and its power is inversely related to the sensitivity itself, discriminating most strongly between low sensitivity values and weakening substantially for higher values. It is only when the sensitivity is very low that the variability can provide a tight constraint. Our investigations take the form of “perfect model” experiments, in which we make the optimistic assumption that the model is structurally perfect and all uncertainties (including the true parameter values and nature of internal variability noise) are correctly characterised. Therefore the results might be interpreted as a best-case scenario for what we can learn from variability, rather than a realistic estimate of this. In these experiments, we find that for a moderate sensitivity of 2.5 ∘C, a 150-year time series of pure internal variability will typically support an estimate with a 5 %–95% range of around 5 ∘C (e.g. 1.9–6.8 ∘C). Total variability including that due to the forced response, as inferred from the detrended observational record, can provide a stronger constraint with an equivalent 5 %–95 % posterior range of around 4 ∘C (e.g. 1.8–6.0 ∘C) even when uncertainty in aerosol forcing is considered. Using a statistical summary of variability based on autocorrelation and the magnitude of residuals after detrending proves somewhat less powerful as a constraint than the full time series in both situations. Our results support the analysis of variability as a potentially useful tool in helping to constrain equilibrium climate sensitivity but suggest caution in the interpretation of precise results.

The volume of the Antarctic continental ice sheet(s) varied substantially during the Oligocene and Miocene (∼34–5 Ma) from smaller to substantially larger than today, both on million-year and on orbital timescales. However, reproduction through physical modeling of a dynamic response of the ice sheets to climate forcing remains problematic, suggesting the existence of complex feedback mechanisms between the cryosphere, ocean, and atmosphere systems. There is therefore an urgent need to improve the models for better predictions of these systems, including resulting potential future sea level change. To assess the interactions between the cryosphere, ocean, and atmosphere, knowledge of ancient sea surface conditions close to the Antarctic margin is essential. Here, we present a new TEX86-based sea surface water paleotemperature record measured on Oligocene sediments from Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Site U1356, offshore Wilkes Land, East Antarctica. The new data are presented along with previously published Miocene temperatures from the same site. Together the data cover the interval between ∼34 and ∼11 Ma and encompasses two hiatuses. This record allows us to accurately reconstruct the magnitude of sea surface temperature (SST) variability and trends on both million-year and glacial–interglacial timescales. On average, TEX86 values indicate SSTs ranging between 10 and 21 ∘C during the Oligocene and Miocene, which is on the upper end of the few existing reconstructions from other high-latitude Southern Ocean sites. SST maxima occur around 30.5, 25, and 17 Ma. Our record suggests generally warm to temperate ocean offshore Wilkes Land. Based on lithological alternations detected in the sedimentary record, which are assigned to glacial–interglacial deposits, a SST variability of 1.5–3.1 ∘C at glacial–interglacial timescales can be established. This variability is slightly larger than that of deep-sea temperatures recorded in Mg ∕ Ca data. Our reconstructed Oligocene temperature variability has implications for Oligocene ice volume estimates based on benthic δ18O records. If the long-term and orbital-scale SST variability at Site U1356 mirrors that of the nearby region of deep-water formation, we argue that a substantial portion of the variability and trends contained in long-term δ18O records can be explained by variability in Southern high-latitude temperature and that the Antarctic ice volume may have been less dynamic than previously thought. Importantly, our temperature record suggests that Oligocene–Miocene Antarctic ice sheets were generally of smaller size compared to today.

We employ JRA-55, a recent second-generation global reanalysis providing data of high-quality in the stratosphere, to examine whether a distinguishable effect of geomagnetic activity on northern hemisphere stratospheric temperatures can be detected. We focus on how the statistical significance of stratospheric temperature differences may be robustly assessed during years with high and low geomagnetic activity. Two problems must be overcome. The first is the temporal autocorrelation of the data, which is addressed with a correction of the t-statistics by means of the estimate of the number of independent values in the series of correlated values. The second is the problem of multiplicity due to strong spatial autocorrelations, which is addressed by means of a false discovery rate (FDR) procedure. We find that the statistical tests fail to formally reject the null hypothesis, i.e. no significant response to geomagnetic activity can be found in the seasonal-mean northern-hemisphere stratospheric temperature record.

In 2010 we rediscovered the complete set of meteorological observation protocols made by Jens Esmark (1762–1839) during his years of residence in the Norwegian capital of Oslo (then Christiania). From 1 January 1816 to 25 January 1839, Esmark at his house in Øvre Voldgate in the morning, early afternoon and late evening recorded air temperature with state-of-the-art thermometers. He also noted air pressure, cloud cover, precipitation and wind directions, and experimented with rain gauges and hygrometers. From 1818 to the end of 1838 he twice a month provided weather tables to the official newspaper Den Norske Rigstidende, and thus acquired a semi-official status as the first Norwegian state meteorologist. This paper evaluates the quality of Esmark's temperature observations and presents new metadata, new homogenization and analysis of monthly means. Three significant shifts in the measurement series were detected, and suitable corrections are proposed. The air temperature in Oslo during this period is shown to exhibit a slow rise from 1816 towards 1825, followed by a slighter fall again towards 1838.

Cyprideis torosa is a ubiquitous ostracod found in fresh to hypersaline waters, and commonly in large numbers across the Mediterranean region. Single valves of 51 adult specimens of C. torosa were separated from carapaces that were collected from Lake Banyoles in NE Spain at a depth of 5 m. The Mg/Ca of the valves was compared with known temperatures necessary for successive instar valve calcification, the latter being based on a four-year ecological study of C. torosa collected at Dievengat in northern Belgium by Carlo Heip in 1968–72. Hence, we were able to link the Mg/Ca of fossil valves of C. torosa recovered for a 28 kyr sequence at La Draga, cored on the fringe of Lake Banyoles, with the ontogenic observations of Heip, and reconstruct mean summer temperatures as well as optimal calcification temperature for C. torosa . Principal findings are: (1) the Holocene registered the highest temperatures with also very broad fluctuations; (2) three cold phases are clearly identified at 26.7–23.2, 21.6–20.3 and 16.2–14.3 ka BP; and (3) a prolonged warm phase that lasted about two millennia commenced at 19.5 ka BP and was followed by a progressive temperature decline well over three millennia. Surprisingly the Last Glacial Maximum was not the coldest phase. We finally compare our results with sea-surface temperature (SST) reconstructions from cores from the western Mediterranean Sea. Our record from La Draga clearly matches events recorded in the Alboran Sea that display SST changes obtained from the U K9 37 index. The Heinrich 1 and 2 events around 16 and 28 ka BP coincide with significant low temperature excursions at Banyoles, and palynological records in the marine cores which define semi-arid conditions on land match the low temperature record in our core. Supplementary material: Observational and chemical analysis data for Cyprideis torosa valves from the La Draga sequence are available at: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.2133543

A high resolution petromagnetic and sedimentary grain size analyses demonstrate that pedogenic alterations in the Holocene loess sequences from the region of the Guanzhong Basin and the Mu Us Desert of the Chinese Loess Plateau were affected by the climatic variations in temperature and precipitation, but not by the climatic variations of wind intensity. Three warm-humid intervals (~ 8.4–3.7 ka, ~ 2.4–1.2 ka, and ~ 0.81–0.48 ka), associated with the soil formation and relatively high values of petromagnetic parameters, occurred during the Holocene. A significant paleosol development from ~ 8.4 to 3.7 ka, along with the higher values of proxy parameters, indicates a generally strong warm-humid phase in the mid-Holocene which can be attributed as the Holocene optimum in the studied regions. The study demonstrates that the Holocene climate in China is sensitive to the large warming and cooling events and insensitive to millennial scale climate changes. A complete Holocene climate record is constructed, and that correlates well with the other regional climate records along the south-to-north of eastern Chinese loess plateau, suggesting that similar climatic pattern of changes occurred in the eastern monsoonal China during the Holocene. Results are supported by the other evidence of climate record in different regions of the world, implying the Holocene climatic optimum took place at the same time interval all over the northern hemisphere, and thus, our results correspond to global climate records as well.

A first assessment of the main climatic drivers that modulate the tree-ring width (RW) and maximum latewood density (MXD) along the Italian Peninsula and northeastern Sicily was performed using 27 forest sites, which include conifers (RW and MXD) and broadleaves (only RW). Tree-ring data were compared using the correlation analysis of the monthly and seasonal variables of temperature, precipitation and standardized precipitation index (SPI, used to characterize meteorological droughts) against each species-specific site chronology and against the highly sensitive to climate (HSTC) chronologies (based on selected indexed individual series). We find that climate signals in conifer MXD are stronger and more stable over time than those in conifer and broadleaf RW. In particular, conifer MXD variability is directly influenced by the late summer (August, September) temperature and is inversely influenced by the summer precipitation and droughts (SPI at a timescale of 3 months). The MXD sensitivity to August–September (AS) temperature and to summer drought is mainly driven by the latitudinal gradient of summer precipitation amounts, with sites in the northern Apennines showing stronger climate signals than sites in the south. Conifer RW is influenced by the temperature and drought of the previous summer, whereas broadleaf RW is more influenced by summer precipitation and drought of the current growing season. The reconstruction of the late summer temperatures for the Italian Peninsula for the past 300 years, based on the HSTC chronology of conifer MXD, shows a stable model performance that underlines periods of climatic cooling (and likely also wetter conditions) in 1699, 1740, 1814, 1914 and 1938, and follows well the variability of the instrumental record and of other tree-ring-based reconstructions in the region. Considering a 20-year low-pass-filtered series, the reconstructed temperature record consistently deviates

A borehole temperature record from the Mill Island (East Antarctic) icecap reveals a large surface warming signal manifested as a 0.75 K temperature difference over the approximate 100 m depth below the seasonally varying zone. The temperature profile shows a break in gradient between 49 and 69 m depth, which we model with inverse numerical simulations, indicating that surface warming started around the austral summer of 1980/1981 AD ± 5 yr. This warming of approximately 0.37 K per decade is large by Antarctic standards and is only exceeded in regions of the Antarctic Peninsula. While this warming may reflect regional scale air temperature increases, the lack of comparable trends for other East Antarctic sites suggests local influences are largely responsible for the observed trend. Alteration of the surface energy budget arising from changes in radiation balances due to local cloud, the amount of liquid deposition and local air temperatures associated with altered air/sea exchanges potentially play a key role at this location due to the proximity of the Shackleton Ice Shelf and sea-ice zone.

The gradual cooling of the climate during the Cenozoic has generally been attributed to a decrease in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. The lack of transient climate models and, in particular, the lack of high-resolution proxy records of CO2, beyond the ice-core record prohibit, however, a full understanding of, for example, the inception of the Northern Hemisphere glaciation and mid-Pleistocene transition. Here we elaborate on an inverse modelling technique to reconstruct a continuous CO2 series over the past 20 million year (Myr), by decomposing the global deep-sea benthic δ18O record into a mutually consistent temperature and sea level record, using a set of 1-D models of the major Northern and Southern Hemisphere ice sheets. We subsequently compared the modelled temperature record with ice core and proxy-derived CO2 data to create a continuous CO2 reconstruction over the past 20 Myr. Results show a gradual decline from 450 ppmv around 15 Myr ago to 225 ppmv for mean conditions of the glacial-interglacial cycles of the last 1 Myr, coinciding with a gradual cooling of the global surface temperature of 10 K. Between 13 to 3 Myr ago there is no long-term sea level variation caused by ice-volume changes. We find no evidence of change in the long-term relation between temperature change and CO2, other than the effect following the saturation of the absorption bands for CO2. The reconstructed CO2 record shows that the Northern Hemisphere glaciation starts once the long-term average CO2 concentration drops below 265 ppmv after a period of strong decrease in CO2. Finally, only a small long-term decline of 23 ppmv is found during the mid-Pleistocene transition, constraining theories on this major transition in the climate system. The approach is not accurate enough to revise current ideas about climate sensitivity.

The dynamic regime of Svalbard's Nordaustlandet ice caps is dominated by fast flowing outlet glaciers, making assessment of their response to climate change challenging. A key element of the challenge lies in the fact that the motion of fast outlet glaciers occurs largely through basal sliding, and is governed by physical processes at the glacier bed, processes that are difficult both to observe and to simulate. Up to now, most of the sliding laws used in ice flow models were based on uniform parameters with a condition on temperature to identify regions of basal sliding. However these models are usually not able to reproduce observed velocities with sufficient accuracy. With the development of inverse methods, it is now common to infer a spatially varying field of sliding parameters from surface ice-velocity observations. These parameter distributions usually reflect a high spatial variability and represent valuable information to understand and test various hypotheses on physical processes involved in sliding. However, in these models, basal sliding is uncoupled from the thermal regime of basal ice and the evolution of the sliding parameters in prognostic simulations remains problematic. Here we explore the role of different heat sources (friction heating, strain heating and latent heat through percolation of melt water) on the development of sliding and fast flow through thermomechanical coupling on Nordaustlandet outlet glaciers. We focus on Vestfonna with a special emphasis on Franklinbreen, a fast flowing outlet glacier which has been observed to accelerate between 1995 and 2008 and possibly already prior to 1995. We try to reconcile the impacts of temperature and heat sources on basal friction coefficients inferred from observed surface velocities during these two periods. Our simulations reproduce a temperature profile from borehole measurements, allowing an interpretation of the vertical temperature structure in terms of temporal evolution of climate. We identify firn heating as a crucial heat source to explain Vestfonna's temperature distribution, especially in the thick areas in the center. However, friction heating is the dominant heat source at the bed of fast flowing outlet glaciers. Our findings do not support a purely temperature dependent sliding law for Vestfonna, implying that hydrology and/or sediment physics need to be represented in order to simulate fast flowing outlet glaciers.

High-resolution records of calibrated proxy data for the past 2000 yr are fundamental to place current changes into the context of pre-industrial natural forced and unforced variability. Although the need for regional spatially explicit comprehensive reconstructions is widely recognized, the proxy data sources are still scarce, particularly for the Southern Hemisphere and South America. We provide a 1500 yr long warm season temperature record from varved Lago Plomo, a proglacial lake of the Northern Patagonian Ice field in southern Chile (46°59' S, 72°52' W, 203 m). The thickness of the bright summer sediment layer relative to the dark winter layer (measured as total brightness; % reflectance 400–730 nm) is calibrated against warm season SONDJF temperature (1900–2009; r = 0.58, p(aut) = 0.056, RE = 0.52; CE = 0.15, RMSEP = 0.28 °C; five-year triangular filtered data). In Lago Plomo, warm summer temperatures lead to enhanced glacier melt and suspended sediment transport, which results in a thicker light summer layer and to brighter sediments (% total brightness). Although Patagonia shows pronounced regional differences in decadal temperature trends and variability, the 1500 yr temperature reconstruction from Lago Plomo compares favourably with other regional/continental temperature records but also emphasizes significant regional differences for which no data and information existed so far. The reconstruction shows pronounced sub-decadal–multi-decadal variability with cold phases in the 5th, 7th and 9th centuries, during parts of the Little Ice Age chronozone (16th and 18th centuries) and in the beginning of the 20th century. The most prominent warm phase is the 19th century which is as warm as the second half of the 20th century, emphasizing a delayed recent global warming in the Southern Hemisphere. The comparison between winter precipitation and summer temperature (inter-seasonal coupling) from Lago Plomo reveals alternating phases with parallel and contrasting decadal trends of winter precipitation and summer temperature and positive and negative running correlations(winterPP;summerTT). In the 20th century the trend of this correlation changes at 1920, 1945 and 1975 AD, and the phases with positive (negative) correlations inferred from the lake sediments are also found as a regional robust pattern in reanalysis data, and coincide with the changes of the instrumental PDO index. Enhanced circumpolar flow around 60° S is proposed for positive phases of PDO which leads to the reversed coupling and contrasting decadal trends of winter precipitation and summer temperature during PDO positive phases. Our reconstruction of the inter-seasonal coupling back to 1530 AD reproduces many features of existing PDO reconstructions from the Pacific suggesting that Lago Plomo provides a record for the regional expression of the PDO in Patagonia.

Using a method of discrete Fourier transform with varying starting point and length of time window and the long time series provided by millennium Earth System Model simulations, we get good fits to power laws between two characteristic oscillatory timescales of the model climate: multidecadal (50–80 yr) and El Nino (3–6 yr) timescales. For global mean temperature, we fit β ~ 0.35 in a relation S(f) ~ f−β in a simulation without external climate forcing and β over 0.7 in a simulation with external forcing included. We also fit a power law with β ~ 8 to the narrow frequency range between El Nino frequencies and the Nyquist frequency. Regional variability in best-fit β is explored and the impact of choosing the frequency range on the result is illustrated. When all resolved frequencies are used, land areas seem to have lower βs than ocean areas on average, but when fits are restricted to frequencies below 1/(6 yr), this difference disappears, while regional differences still remain. Results compare well with measurements both for global mean temperature and for the Central England temperature record.

The gradual cooling of the climate during the Cenozoic has generally been attributed to a decrease in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. The lack of transient climate models and in particular the lack of high-resolution proxy records of CO2, beyond the ice-core record prohibit however a full understanding of the inception of the Northern Hemisphere glaciation, as well as the mid-Pleistocene transition. Here we elaborate on an inverse modeling technique to reconstruct a continuous high-resolution CO2 record over the past 20 Ma, by decomposing the global deep-sea benthic δ18O record into a mutually consistent temperature and sea-level record, using a set of 1-D models of the major Northern and Southern Hemisphere ice sheets. We subsequently compared the modeled temperature record to ice core and proxy-derived CO2 data to reconstruct a continuous CO2 record over the past 20 Myrs. Results show a gradual decline from 450 ppmv around 15 Myrs ago to 280 ppmv for pre-industrial conditions, coinciding with a gradual cooling of the Northern Hemisphere land temperatures by approximately 12 K, whereas there is no long-term sea-level variation caused by ice-volume changes between 13 to 3 Myrs ago. We find no evidence for a change in climate sensitivity other than the expected decrease following from saturation of the absorption bands for CO2. The reconstructed CO2 record shows that the Northern Hemisphere glaciation starts once the average CO2 concentration drops below 265 ppmv after a period of strong decrease in CO2. Finally it might be noted that we observe only a small long-term change (23 ppmv) for CO2 during the mid-Pleistocene transition.