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Model-based projections of ice-sheet thresholds and global sea-level rise are severely constrained by instrumental observations being only decadal to century-long. As we improve our understanding of these processes, projections just a few years old are now considered conservative, raising concerns about our ability to successfully plan for abrupt future change. Past periods of abrupt and extreme warming offer ‘process analogues’ that can provide new insights into the future rate of response of polar ice sheets to warming of the Earth system. The Last Termination (20,000-10,000 years ago or 20-10 ka BP) in the North Atlantic region was characterised by a series of abrupt climatic changes including rapid warming at 14.7 ka BP (the start of the “Bølling”, or GI-1 in the Greenland ice-core isotope stratigraphy) which was accompanied by an Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR) in the south. Potentially important, during the onset of GI-1, warming persisted in the south for some 256±133 calendar years before the ACR, providing a period of time during which both polar regions experienced increasing temperatures. Sometime around the onset of GI-1 and the ACR, Meltwater Pulse 1A (MWP-1A) formed an abrupt sea level rise of ~15 metres, and was coincident with a period of enhanced iceberg flux in the Southern Ocean. It seems likely the majority of the sea level rise came from the Northern Hemisphere – up to 5-6 metres from the Laurentide Ice Sheet – though the timing remains uncertain. The contribution of Antarctic Ice Sheets (AIS) to global mean sea level (GMSL) rise during MWP-1A range from ‘high-end’ scenarios (>10 m contributing over half of the total GMSL rise), to ‘low-end’ (scenarios with little to no contribution). Here we report the results of a multidisciplinary study, with refined age and Antarctic ice-sheet modelling of the MWP-1A sea-level rise. With the recently released international radiocarbon calibration curve (IntCal20), our Bayesian age modelling of terrestrial ages from flooded mangrove swamps suggests global sea level rose across a mean age range of 14.58 ka BP to 14.42 ka BP, with a mean rate of sea-level rise of 0.94 metres per decade (14.97 metres over 160 years). Because the calibrated age range at 95% confidence overlaps in this age model, it is possible the 15 metre rise during MWP1A could have taken place essentially instantaneously. Even the most conservative age modelling we have undertaken indicates an extraordinary rapid rate of sea-level rise; two orders of magnitude larger than the mean rate of global sea level rise since 1993 (0.03±0.003 metres per decade). Our ice-sheet modelling suggests a substantial and rapid loss of Antarctic ice mass (mostly from the Weddell Sea Embayment and the Antarctic Peninsula), synchronous with warming and ice loss in the North Atlantic. The drivers and mechanisms of the observed near-synchronous interhemispheric changes will be discussed, with implications for the future.

Sequestration of organic carbon in aquatic sediments can depend on its source and potential lability. Studies have shown that bulk lake and marine sediment comprises carbon of different origin but its source has been difficult to attribute. A new Ramped Pyroxidation/Combustion (RPO) system in the 14CHRONO Centre has been established. RPO is a technique that incrementally heats a sample, and allows for collection of the CO2 produced for radiocarbon analyses. The results show its utility in partitioning carbon sources in lake sediment (Rostherne Mere, UK, Santa María del Orolake, Mexico), and arctic marine sediment (Chukchi Sea and Beaufort Shelf). RPO and 2-stepped combustion1. 14C indicated multiple carbon sources in Rostherne Mere sediment, some of which could be attributed to the construction of a sewage treatment works (STW) on the lake shore, and subsequently inputs from this STW. RPO identified 3 carbon fractions in Mexican Lake sediment, which provided a more accurate chronology, partitioning the contemporaneous sediment date from offsets induced from volcanic activity in the area. Results from Arctic marine sediment demonstrated inputs of carbon from ancient permafrost, providing a means to refine the chronologies and a basis for future research linked with carbon loss from thawing permafrost.1Keaveney et al. 2020. Journal of Palaeolimnology 64 347-363

Mid-latitude, cave-hosted temperate ice is increasingly scrutinised for its palaeoclimatic potential. Findings of dendrochronologically dated wood trunks and radiometrically dated woody macrofossils demonstrate that underground ice accumulations records may locally span several millenia. The cave geometries conducive to underground firn accumulation were additionally shown to favour the preservation of a winter signal, making cave-hosted ice an attractive and complementary archive to existing and largely summer-biased proxy records. Proxy derivation from these ice accumulations first requires the establishment of firn accumulation/ablation chronologies from stratigraphic mapping and radiometric dating of organic inclusions. Decadal to centennial trends in accumulation/ablation recorded by the ice stratigraphy thus provide insight in past variations of solid precipitation .Preliminary results from several well-dated ice caves of the Northern Calcareous Alps in Austria suggest local preservation of ice since ca. 3600-3300 BC. Inclusion-rich unconformities in the ice stratigraphy from these alpine caves mark short breaks in firn accumulation between 250 BC and 250 AD and longer hiatuses during Late Antiquity and the 8th and 9th century AD. The majority of dated ice sequences testify the onset of rapid ice accumulation from the 11th and 12th century AD onwards and build up throughout the 'Litte Ice Age'.

Paleoclimate records from the North Atlantic show some of the most iconic signals of abrupt climate change during the ice ages. Here we use radiocarbon as a tracer of ocean circulation and air-sea gas exchange to investigate potential mechanisms for the abrupt climate changes seen in the North Atlantic over the last deglaciation. We have created a stack of North Atlantic surface radiocarbon reservoir ages over the past 20,000 years, using new synchronized age models from thirteen sediment cores refined with thorium normalization between tie-points. This stack shows consistent and large reservoir age increases of more than 1000 years from the LGM into HS1, dropping abruptly back to approximately modern reservoir ages before the onset of the Bolling-Allerod. We use the intermediate complexity earth system model cGENIE to investigate the potential drivers of these reservoir age changes. We find that sea ice, circulation and CO2 all play important roles in setting the reservoir age. We use these coherently dated records to revisit the sequence and timing of climatic events during HS1 and the last deglaciation, and show that Laurentide Heinrich Events are a response to stadial conditions, rather than their root cause.

The construction of the new IntCal20 calibration curve was undertaken using a number of new statistical approaches (Heaton et al. 2020), when compared to previous versions. This was partly due to the nature of some of the new datasets; partly to improve the robustness of the curve; and partly to address particular aspects of radiocarbon within the Earth System such as reservoir effects, incorporation of geological carbon in speleothems, and the uncertainties associated with different timescales. Here the main approaches taken are summarised with a perspective on their strengths and potential weaknesses.In particular, the high-resolution extensions to the Hulu speleothem radiocarbon record (Cheng et al. 2018) allow it to be used to anchor the chronology for other key records (Suigetsu, Cariaco, and the Pakistan and Iberian Margins), providing a coherence in the timescale not possible before. Further, for the first time, we incorporate time varying marine reservoir ages, constrained by the Hamburg Large Scale Geostrophic Ocean General Circulation Model (LSG OGCM)(Butzin et al. 2020). In addition, work on the relationship to the Greenland ice core timescales (Adolphi et al. 2018) enables us to make direct comparison between radiocarbon dated records and the ice core timescale and here we report on tools to assist with this.Along with the update to the calibration curve itself, the associated tools for calibration, age-depth modelling and Bayesian modelling have also been updated to make best use of the new resolution and characteristics of the curve. Here we summarise updates to Bacon, Calib and OxCal.Heaton, TJ. et al (2020) The IntCal20 approach to radiocarbon calibration curve construction: A new methodology using Bayesian splines and errors-in-variables Radiocarbon: in review.Cheng, H. et al. (2018) Atmospheric 14C/12C changes during the last glacial period from Hulu Cave. Science, 362(6420), pp.1293-1297. doi:10.1126/science.aau0747Adolphi, F. et al. (2018) Connecting the Greenland ice-core and U/Th timescales via cosmogenic radionuclides: Testing the synchronicity of Dansgaard-Oeschger events. Climate of the Past, 14, pp.1755-1781. doi:10.5194/cp-2018-85Butzin, M. et al. (2020) A short note on marine reservoir age simulations used in IntCal20. Radiocarbon: in press.

This article is made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund. Copyright @ Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. Historical literature may constitute a valuable source of information to reconstruct sea-level changes. Here, historical documents and geological records have been combined to reconstruct Caspian sea-level (CSL) changes during the last millennium. In addition to a comprehensive literature review, new data from two short sediment cores were obtained from the south-eastern Caspian coast to identify coastal change driven by water-level changes and to compare the results with other geological and historical findings. The overall results indicate a high-stand during the Little Ice Age, up to −21m (and extra rises due to manmade river avulsion), with a −28m low-stand during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, while presently the CSL stands at −26.5 m. A comparison of the CSL curve with other lake systems and proxy records suggests that the main sea-level oscillations are essentially paced by solar irradiance. Although the major controller of the long-term CSL changes is driven by climatological factors, the seismicity of the basin creates local changes in base level. These local base-level changes should be considered in any CSL reconstruction.

Tree ring Δ14C data (Reimer et al., 2004; McCormac et al., 2004) indicate that atmospheric Δ14C varied on multi-decadal to centennial timescales, in both hemispheres, over the period between AD 950 and 1830. The Northern and Southern Hemispheric Δ14C records display similar variability, but from the data alone is it not clear whether these variations are driven by the production of 14C in the stratosphere (Stuiver and Quay, 1980) or by perturbations to exchanges between carbon reservoirs (Siegenthaler et al., 1980). As the sea-air flux of 14CO2 has a clear maximum in the open ocean regions of the Southern Ocean, relatively modest perturbations to the winds over this region drive significant perturbations to the interhemispheric gradient. In this study, model simulations are used to show that Southern Ocean winds are likely a main driver of the observed variability in the interhemispheric gradient over AD 950–1830, and further, that this variability may be larger than the Southern Ocean wind trends that have been reported for recent decades (notably 1980–2004). This interpretation also implies that there may have been a significant weakening of the winds over the Southern Ocean within a few decades of AD 1375, associated with the transition between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age. The driving forces that could have produced such a shift in the winds at the Medieval Climate Anomaly to Little Ice Age transition remain unknown. Our process-focused suite of perturbation experiments with models raises the possibility that the current generation of coupled climate and earth system models may underestimate the natural background multi-decadal- to centennial-timescale variations in the winds over the Southern Ocean.