Search

The eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano on 15 January 2022 provided a rare opportunity to understand global tsunami impacts of explosive volcanism and to evaluate future hazards, including dangers from “volcanic meteotsunamis” (VMTs) induced by the atmospheric shock waves that followed the eruption. The propagation of the volcanic and marine tsunamis was analyzed using globally distributed 1 min measurements of air pressure and water level (WL) (from both tide gauges and deep-water buoys). The marine tsunami propagated primarily throughout the Pacific, reaching nearly 2 m at some locations, though most Pacific locations recorded maximums lower than 1 m. However, the VMT resulting from the atmospheric shock wave arrived before the marine tsunami and propagated globally, producing water level perturbations in the Indian Ocean, the Mediterranean, and the Caribbean. The resulting water level response of many Pacific Rim gauges was amplified, likely related to wave interaction with bathymetry. The meteotsunami repeatedly boosted tsunami wave energy as it circled the planet several times. In some locations, the VMT was amplified by as much as 35-fold relative to the inverse barometer due to near-Proudman resonance and topographic effects. Thus, a meteotsunami from a larger eruption (such as the Krakatoa eruption of 1883) could yield atmospheric pressure changes of 10 to 30 mb, yielding a 3–10 m near-field tsunami that would occur in advance of (usually) larger marine tsunami waves, posing additional hazards to local populations. Present tsunami warning systems do not consider this threat.

Using archival research methods, we found and combined data from multiple sources to produce a unique, 140 year record of daily water temperature (Tw) in the lower Willamette River, Oregon (1881–1890, 1941–present). Additional daily weather and river flow records from the 1850s onwards are used to develop and validate a statistical regression model of Tw for 1850–2020. The model simulates the time-lagged response of Tw to air temperature and river flow, and is calibrated for three distinct time periods: the late 19th, mid 20th, and early 21st centuries. Results show that Tw has trended upwards at ~1.1 °C /century since the mid-19th century, with the largest shift in January/February (1.3 °C /century) and the smallest in May/June (~ 0.8 °C /century). The duration that the river exceeds the ecologically important threshold of 20 °C has increased by ~20 days since the 1800s, to ~60 d yr-1. Moreover, cold water days below 2 °C have virtually disappeared, and the river no longer freezes. Since ~1900, changes are primarily correlated with increases in air temperature (Tw increase of 0.81 ±0.25 °C) but also occur due to increased reservoir capacity, altered land use and river morphology, and other anthropogenic changes (0.34 ±0.12 °C). Managed release of water influences Tw seasonally, with an average reduction of 0.27 °C and 0.56 °C estimated for August and September. System changes have decreased daily variability (σ) by 0.44 °C, increased thermal memory, and reduced interannual variability. These system changes fundamentally alter the response of Tw to climate change, posing additional stressors on fauna.

Nuisance flooding (NF) or high tide flooding describes minor nondestructive flooding which can nonetheless cause substantial negative socio-economic impacts to coastal communities. The frequency of NF events has increased and accelerated over the past decades along the U.S. coast, leading to changes ranging from 300% to 900%. This is mainly a result of sea level rise reducing the gap between high tidal datum and flood thresholds. While long-term relative sea level rise is the main driver for the increased number of NF events, other factors such as variability in the Gulf stream, the storm climate, and infragravity waves can also contribute. Another important driver that is often overlooked is related to changes in coastal and estuary tides, through secular trends in the amplitudes of major tidal constituents. In this presentation we assess the role of tidal changes in modulating the frequency of NF events along the U.S. coastline. We analyze hourly records from 49 U.S. tide gauges for which the National Weather Service has defined NF thresholds. We find that (1) overall across all tide gauges the number of NF days has increased since 1950 due to changes in coastal tides, adding up to 100 NF days in recent years (on top of the increase due to relative sea level rise), (2) more tide gauges experience an increase in NF events than a decrease due to changes in tides, (3) tide gauges in major estuaries which have undergone major anthropogenic alterations experience the strongest changes; in Wilmington (Cape Fear estuary), for example, 10-40% of NF events in recent years can be attributed to tidal changes.