Search

In order to quantify the relative importance of individual boundary conditions and forcings, including greenhouse gases, ice sheets, and Earth's orbital parameters, on determining Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate, we have performed a series of LGM experiments using a state-of-the-art climate model AWI-ESM, in which different combinations of boundary conditions and forcings have been applied following the protocol of Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 4 (PMIP4). In good agreement with observational proxy records, a general colder and drier climate is simulated in our full-forced LGM experiment as compared to the present-day simulation. Our modeled results from non-full-forced sensitivity simulations reveal that both the greenhouse gases and ice sheets play a major role on defining the anomalous LGM surface temperature compared to today. Decreased greenhouse gases in LGM as compared to present-day leads to a non-uniform global cooling with polar amplification effect. The presence of LGM ice sheets favors a warming over Arctic Ocean and North Atlantic in boreal winter, as well as a cooling over regions with the presence of ice sheets. The former is induced by a strengthening in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) transporting more heat to high-latitudes, whilst the latter owing to the increased surface albedo and elevation of ice sheets. We find that the Northern Hemisphere monsoon precipitation is influenced by the opposing effects of LGM greenhouse gases and ice sheets. Specifically, the presence of ice sheets leads to significant drying in the Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions, while a reduction in greenhouse gases results in increased monsoon rainfall. Based on our model results, continental ice sheets exert a major control on atmospheric dynamics and the variability of El Ni~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Moreover, our analysis also implies a nonlinearity in climate response to LGM boundary conditions and forcings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerical simulations employing prognostic stable water isotopes can not only facilitate our understanding of hydrological processes and climate change but also allow for a straightforward comparison between isotope signals obtained from models and various archives. In the current work, we describe the performance and explore the potential of a new version of the Earth system model AWI-ESM, labeled AWI-ESM-wiso, in which we incorporated three isotope tracers into all relevant components of the water cycle. We present here the results of pre-industrial (PI) and mid-Holocene (MH) simulations. The model well reproduces the observed PI isotope compositions in both precipitation and sea water, and captures their major differences from the MH condition. The simulated relationship between the isotope composition in precipitation (δ18Op) and surface air temperature is very similar between the PI and MH conditions, and largely consistent with modern observations despite some regional model biases. The ratio of the MH-PI difference in δ18Op to the MH-PI difference in surface air temperature is reasonable over Greenland and Antarctica only when summertime air temperature is considered. An amount effect is evident over the North Africa monsoon domain, where a negative correlation between δ18Op and the amount of precipitation is simulated. As an example of model applications, we studied the onset date of MH West Africa summer monsoon (WASM) using daily variables. We find that defining the WASM onset based on precipitation alone may yield erroneous results due to the substantial daily variations of precipitation, which may obscure the distinction between pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. Combining precipitation and isotope indicators, we suggest in this work a novel method for identifying the commencement of the WASM. Moreover, we do not find obvious difference between the MH and PI in terms of the mean onset date of WASM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerical modelling enables a comprehensive understanding not only of the Earth's system today, but also of the past. To date, a significant amount of time and effort has been devoted to paleoclimate modeling and analysis, which involves the latest and most advanced Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 4 (PMIP4). The definition of seasonality, which is influenced by slow variations in the Earth's orbital parameters, plays a key role in determining the calculated seasonal cycle of the climate. In contrast to the classical calendar used today, where the lengths of the months and seasons are fixed, the angular calendar calculates the lengths of the months and seasons according to a fixed number of degrees along the Earth's orbit. When comparing simulation results for different time intervals, it is essential to account for the angular calendar to ensure that the data for comparison is from the same position along the Earth's orbit. Most models use the classical "fixed-length" calendar, which can lead to strong distortions of the monthly and seasonal values, especially for the climate of the past. Here, by analyzing daily outputs from multiple PMIP4 model simulations, we examine calendar effects on surface air temperature and precipitation under mid-Holocene, last interglacial, and pre-industrial climate conditions. We conclude that: (a) The largest cooling bias occurs in autumn when the classical calendar is applied for the mid-Holocene and last interglacial. (b) The sign of the temperature anomalies between the Last Interglacial and pre-industrial in boreal autumn can be reversed after the switch from classical to angular calendar, particularly over the Northern Hemisphere continents. (c) Precipitation over West Africa is overestimated in boreal summer and underestimated in boreal autumn when the "fixed-length" seasonal cycle is applied. (d) Finally, correcting the calendar based on the monthly model results can reduce the biases to a large extent, but not completely eliminate them. In addition, we examine the calendar effects in 3 transient simulations for 6-0 ka by AWI-ESM, MPI-ESM, and IPSL. We find significant discrepancies between adjusted and unadjusted temperature values over ice-free continents for both hemispheres in boreal autumn. While for other seasons the deviations are relatively small. A drying bias can be found in the summer monsoon precipitation in Africa (in the "fixed-length" calendar), whereby the magnitude of bias becomes smaller over time. Overall, our study underlines the importance of the application of calendar transformation in the analysis of climate simulations. Neglecting the calendar effects could lead to a profound artificial distortion of the calculated seasonal cycle of surface air temperature and precipitation. One important fact to be noted here is that the discrepancy in seasonality under different calendars is an analysis bias and is highly depends on the choice of the reference position/date (usually the vernal equinox, which is set to 31th March) on the Earth's ellipse around the sun. Different model groups may apply different reference dates, so ensuring a consistent reference date and seasonal definition is key when we compare results across multiple models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), a very cold and dry period around 26.5 to 19 thousand years ago, permafrost was widespread across Europe. In this work, we evaluate the potential of regional climate model simulations to reconstruct the permafrost distribution in western Europe during the LGM. With this aim, criteria for possible thermal contraction cracking of the ground are applied to climate model data for the first time. These criteria serve as a precondition for the development of ice and sand wedges, which are a common proxy for past permafrost. Our results show that the permafrost and ground cracking distribution in Europe during the LGM are not consistent with a large-scale circulation with prevailing westerly winds. However, a colder and with regard to proxy data more realistic version of the LGM climate is achieved given more frequent easterly winds conditions. Whereas the permafrost extent and ground cracking regions in the global climate model simulation deviate from proxy evidence, they are in good agreement in the regional counterpart. Given the appropriate forcing, an added value of the regional climate model simulation can thus be achieved. Furthermore, the model data provide evidence that thermal contraction cracking occurred in Europe during the LGM also south of the probable permafrost border. This enables the reconsideration of the significance of ice wedge pseudomorphs and sand wedge casts to understand past climate variations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the impact of three different parameterizations of ice-ocean heat exchange on modeled ice thickness, ice concentration, and water masses. These three parameterizations are (1) an ice-bath assumption with the ocean temperature fixed at the freezing temperature, (2) a turbulent heat-flux parameterization with ice-ocean heat exchange depending linearly on the temperature difference between the mixed layer and the ice-ocean interface, and (3) a similar turbulent heat-flux parameterization as (2) but with the temperature at the ice-ocean interface depending on ice-ablation rate. Based on model simulations with the standalone sea-ice model CICE, the ice-ocean model MPIOM and the climate model COSMOS, we find that (3) leads (in comparison to the other two parameterizations) to a thicker modeled sea ice, warmer water beneath high-concentration ice and cooler water towards the ice edge, and higher salinity in the Arctic Ocean mixed layer. Finally, in the fully coupled climate model COSMOS, the most realistic parameterization leads to an enhanced Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), a more positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) mode and a weakened Aleutian Low. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ~ 21,000 years ago) has been a major focus for evaluating how well state-of-the-art climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future using paleoclimate reconstructions. A new generation of climate models have been used to generate LGM simulations as part of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) contribution to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Here we provide a preliminary analysis and evaluation of the results of these LGM experiments (PMIP4-CMIP6) and compare them with the previous generation of simulations (PMIP3-CMIP5). We show that the PMIP4-CMIP6 are globally less cold and less dry than the PMIP3-CMIP5 simulations, most probably because of the use of a more realistic specification of the northern hemisphere ice sheets in the latest simulations although changes in model configuration may also contribute to this. There are important differences in both atmospheric and ocean circulation between the two sets of experiments, with the northern and southern jet streams being more poleward and the changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation being less pronounced in the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations than in the PMIP3-CMIP5 simulations. Changes in simulated precipitation patterns are influenced by both temperature and circulation changes. Differences in simulated climate between individual models remain large so, although there are differences in the average behaviour across the two ensembles, the new simulation results are not fundamentally different from the PMIP3-CMIP5 results. Evaluation of large-scale climate features, such as land-sea contrast and polar amplification, confirms that the models capture these well and within the uncertainty of the palaeoclimate reconstructions. Nevertheless, regional climate changes are less well simulated: the models underestimate extratropical cooling, particularly in winter, and precipitation changes. The spatial patterns of increased precipitation associated with changes in the jet streams are also poorly captured. However, changes in the tropics are more realistic, particularly the changes in tropical temperatures over the oceans. Although these results are preliminary in nature, because of the limited number of LGM simulations currently available, they nevertheless point to the utility of using paleoclimate simulations to understand the mechanisms of climate change and evaluate model performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mid-Holocene (6000 years ago) is a standard experiment for the evaluation of the simulated response of global climate models using paleoclimate reconstructions. The latest mid-Holocene simulations are a contribution by the Palaeoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) to the current phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Here we provide an initial analysis and evaluation of the results of the experiment for the mid-Holocene. We show that state-of-the-art models produce climate changes that are broadly consistent with theory and observations, including increased summer warming of the northern hemisphere and associated shifts in tropical rainfall. Many features of the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations were present in the previous generation (PMIP3-CMIP5) of simulations. The PMIP4-CMIP6 ensemble for the mid-Holocene has a global mean temperature change of -0.3 K, which is -0.2 K cooler that the PMIP3-CMIP5 simulations predominantly as a result of the prescription of realistic greenhouse gas concentrations in PMIP4-CMIP6. Neither this difference nor the improvement in model complexity and resolution seems to improve the realism of the simulations. Biases in the magnitude and the sign of regional responses identified in PMIP3-CMIP5, such as the amplification of the northern African monsoon, precipitation changes over Europe and simulated aridity in mid-Eurasia, are still present in the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations. Despite these issues, PMIP4-CMIP6 and the mid-Holocene provide an opportunity both for quantitative evaluation and derivation of emergent constraints on climate sensitivity and feedback strength. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]