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We modeled the carbon (C) cycle in Mexico with a process-based approach. We used different available products (satellite data, field measurements, models and flux towers) to estimate C stocks and fluxes in the country at three different time frames: present (defined as the period 2000-2005), the past century (1901-2000) and the remainder of this century (2010-2100). Our estimate of the gross primary productivity (GPP) for the country was 2137±1023 TgC yr-1 and a total C stock of 34 506±7483 TgC, with 20 347±4622 TgC in vegetation and 14 159±3861 in the soil. Contrary to other current estimates for recent decades, our results showed that Mexico was a C sink over the period 1990-2009 (+31 TgC yr-1) and that C accumulation over the last century amounted to 1210±1040 TgC. We attributed this sink to the CO2 fertilization effect on GPP, which led to an increase of 3408±1060 TgC, while both climate and land use reduced the country C stocks by -458±1001 and -1740±878 TgC, respectively. Under different future scenarios, the C sink will likely continue over the 21st century, with decreasing C uptake as the climate forcing becomes more extreme. Our work provides valuable insights on relevant driving processes of the C cycle such as the role of drought in drylands (e.g., grasslands and shrublands) and the impact of climate change on the mean residence time of soil C in tropical ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We modelled the carbon (C) cycle in Mexico with a process-based approach. We used different available products (satellite data, field measurements, models and flux towers) to estimate C stocks and fluxes in the country at three different time frames: present (defined as the period 2000-2005), the past century (1901-2000) and the remainder of this century (2010-2100). Our estimate of the gross primary productivity (GPP) for the country was 2137±1023 TgCyr-1 and a total C stock of 34 506±7483 TgC, with 20 347±4622 PgC in vegetation and 14 159±3861 in the soil. Contrary to other current estimates for recent decades, our results showed that Mexico was a C sink over the period 1990-2009 (+31 TgCyr-1) and that C accumulation over the last century amounted to 1210±1040 TgC. We attributed this sink to the CO2 fertilization effect on GPP, which led to an increase of 3408±1060 TgC, while both climate and land use reduced the country C stocks by -458±1001 and -1740±878 TgC, respectively. Under different future scenarios the C sink will likely continue over 21st century, with decreasing C uptake as the climate forcing becomes more extreme. Our work provides valuable insights on relevant driving processes of the C-cycle such as the role of drought in marginal lands (e.g. grasslands and shrublands) and the impact of climate change on the mean residence time of C in tropical ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The HadGEM2 earth system climate model was used to assess the impact of biomass burning on surface ozone concentrations over the Amazon forest and its impact on vegetation, under present-day climate conditions. Here we consider biomass burning emissions from wildfires, deforestation fires, agricultural forest burning, and residential and commercial combustion. Simulated surface ozone concentration is evaluated against observations taken at two sites in the Brazilian Amazon forest for years 2010 to 2012. The model is able to reproduce the observed diurnal cycle of surface ozone mixing ratio at the two sites, but overestimates the magnitude of the monthly averaged hourly measurements by 5-15 ppb for each available month at one of the sites. We vary biomass burning emissions over South America by ±20, 40, 60, 80 and 100% to quantify the modelled impact of biomass burning on surface ozone concentrations and ozone damage on vegetation productivity over the Amazon forest. We used the ozone damage scheme in the "high" sensitivity mode to give an upper limit for this effect. Decreasing South American biomass burning emissions by 100% (i.e. to zero) reduces surface ozone concentrations (by about 15 ppb during the biomass burning season) and suggests a 15% increase in monthly mean net primary productivity averaged over the Amazon forest, with local increases up to 60%. The simulated impact of ozone damage from present-day biomass burning on vegetation productivity is about 230 TgC yr-1. Taking into account that uncertainty in these estimates is substantial, this ozone damage impact over the Amazon forest is of the same order of magnitude as the release of carbon dioxide due to fire in South America; in effect it potentially doubles the impact of biomass burning on the carbon cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The land and ocean absorb on average just over half of the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2/ every year. These CO2 "sinks" are modulated by climate change and variability. Here we use a suite of nine dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and four ocean biogeochemical general circulation models (OBGCMs) to estimate trends driven by global and regional climate and atmospheric CO2 in land and oceanic CO2 exchanges with the atmosphere over the period 1990-2009, to attribute these trends to underlying processes in the models, and to quantify the uncertainty and level of inter-model agreement. The models were forced with reconstructed climate fields and observed global atmospheric CO2; land use and land cover changes are not included for the DGVMs. Over the period 1990-2009, the DGVMs simulate a mean global land carbon sink of -2.4±0.7 Pg C yr-1 with a small significant trend of -0.06±0.03 Pg C yr-2 (increasing sink). Over the more limited period 1990-2004, the ocean models simulate a mean ocean sink of -2.2±0.2 Pg C yr-1 with a trend in the net C uptake that is indistinguishable from zero (-0.01±0.02 Pg C yr-2). The two ocean models that extended the simulations until 2009 suggest a slightly stronger, but still small, trend of -0.02±0.01 Pg C yr-2. Trends from land and ocean models compare favourably to the land greenness trends from remote sensing, atmospheric inversion results, and the residual land sink required to close the global carbon budget. Trends in the land sink are driven by increasing net primary production (NPP), whose statistically significant trend of -0.22±0.08 Pg C yr-2 exceeds a significant trend in heterotrophic respiration of 0.16±0.05 Pg C yr-2 -- primarily as a consequence of widespread CO2 fertilisation of plant production. Most of the land-based trend in simulated net carbon uptake originates from natural ecosystems in the tropics (-0.04±0.01 Pg C yr-2), with almost no trend over the northern land region, where recent warming and reduced rainfall offsets the positive impact of elevated atmospheric CO2 and changes in growing season length on carbon storage. The small uptake trend in the ocean models emerges because climate variability and change, and in particular increasing sea surface temperatures, tend to counteract the trend in ocean uptake driven by the increase in atmospheric CO2. Large uncertainty remains in the magnitude and sign of modelled carbon trends in several regions, as well as regarding the influence of land use and land cover changes on regional trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The HadGEM2 Earth System climate model was used to assess the impact of biomass burning on surface ozone concentrations over the Amazon forest and its impact on vegetation. Simulated surface ozone concentration is evaluated against observations taken at two sites in the Brazilian Amazon forest. The model is able to reproduce the observed diurnal cycle of surface ozone mixing ratio at the two sites, but overestimates the magnitude of the monthly averaged hourly measurements by 5-15ppb for each available month at one of the sites. We vary biomass burning emissions over South America by ±20, 40, 60, 80 and 100% to quantify the modelled impact of biomass burning on surface ozone concentrations and ozone damage on vegetation productivity over the Amazon forest. Decreasing South American biomass burning emissions by 100% (i.e. to zero) reduces surface ozone concentrations and suggests a 15% increase in monthly mean net primary productivity averaged over the Amazon forest, with local increases up to 60%: this gives us an estimate of the effect of current biomass burning on plant productivity. When biomass burning emissions are increased by 100%, our model simulates a maximum impact of 10% reduction in monthly mean net plant productivity averaged over the Amazon forest, with local peaks of 50-60% reduction for the months of intense fire activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Repeated long-term censuses have revealed largescale spatial patterns in Amazon basin forest structure and dynamism, with some forests in the west of the basin having up to a twice as high rate of aboveground biomass production and tree recruitment as forests in the east. Possible causes for this variation could be the climatic and edaphic gradients across the basin and/or the spatial distribution of tree species composition. To help understand causes of this variation a new individual-based model of tropical forest growth, designed to take full advantage of the forest census data available from the Amazonian Forest Inventory Network (RAINFOR), has been developed. The model allows for withinstand variations in tree size distribution and key functional traits and between-stand differences in climate and soil physical and chemical properties. It runs at the stand level with four functional traits - leaf dry mass per area (Ma), leaf nitrogen (NL) and phosphorus (PL) content and wood density (DW) varying from tree to tree - in a way that replicates the observed continua found within each stand. We first applied the model to validate canopy-level water fluxes at three eddy covariance flux measurement sites. For all three sites the canopy-level water fluxes were adequately simulated. We then applied the model at seven plots, where intensive measurements of carbon allocation are available. Treeby- tree multi-annual growth rates generally agreed well with observations for small trees, but with deviations identified for larger trees. At the stand level, simulations at 40 plots were used to explore the influence of climate and soil nutrient availability on the gross (ΠG) and net (ΠN) primary production rates as well as the carbon use efficiency (CU). Simulated ΠG, ΠN and CU were not associated with temperature. On the other hand, all three measures of stand level productivity were positively related to both mean annual precipitation and soil nutrient status. Sensitivity studies showed a clear importance of an accurate parameterisation of within-and between-stand trait variability on the fidelity of model predictions. For example, when functional tree diversity was not included in the model (i.e. with just a single plant functional type with mean basin-wide trait values) the predictive ability of the model was reduced. This was also the case when basin-wide (as opposed to site-specific) trait distributions were applied within each stand.We conclude that models of tropical forest carbon, energy and water cycling should strive to accurately represent observed variations in functionally important traits across the range of relevant scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe datasets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from Land-Use Change (ELUC), including deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity in regions undergoing deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated for the first time in this budget with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models. All uncertainties are reported as ±1 sigma, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2003-2012), EFF was 8.6 ± 0.4 GtCyr-1, ELUC 0.8 ± 0.5 GtCyr-1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtCyr-1, SOCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtCyr-1, and SLAND 2.6 ± 0.8 GtCyr-1. For year 2012 alone, EFF grew to 9.7 ± 0.5 GtCyr-1, 2.2% above 2011, reflecting a continued trend in these emissions; GATM was 5.2 ± 0.2 GtCyr-1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ±0.5 GtCyr-1, and assuming and ELUC of 0.9± 0.5 GtCyr-1 (based on 2001-2010 average), SLAND> was 2.5±0.9 GtCyr-1. GATM was high in 2012 compared to the 2003-2012 average, almost entirely reflecting the high EFF. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 392.52±0.10 ppm on average over 2012. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.1 % (1.1-3.1 %) to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC in 2013, 61% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of World Gross Domestic Product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. With this projection, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 550 ± 60 GtC for 1870-2013, 70% from EFF (390 ± 20 GtC) and 30 % from ELUC (160 ± 55 GtC). This paper is intended to provide a baseline to keep track of annual carbon budgets in the future. All data presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2013_v1.1). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We summarise the contemporary carbon budget of South America and relate it to its dominant controls: population and economic growth, changes in land use practices and a changing atmospheric environment and climate. Component flux estimate methods we consider sufficiently reliable for this purpose encompass fossil fuel emission inventories, biometric analysis of old-growth rainforests, estimation of carbon release associated with deforestation based on remote sensing and inventories, and agricultural export data. Alternative methods for the estimation of the continental-scale net land to atmosphere CO2 flux, such as atmospheric transport inverse modelling and terrestrial biosphere model predictions, are, we find, hampered by the data paucity, and improved parameterisation and validation exercises are required before reliable estimates can be obtained. From our analysis of available data, we suggest that South America was a net source to the atmosphere during the 1980s (~0.3-0.4 Pg C a-1) and close to neutral (∼0.1 Pg C a-1) in the 1990s. During the latter period, carbon uptake in old-growth forests nearly compensated for the carbon release associated with fossil fuel burning and deforestation. Annual mean precipitation over tropical South America as inferred from Amazon River discharge shows a long-term upward trend. Although, over the last decade dry seasons have tended to be drier, with the years 2005 and 2010 in particular experiencing strong droughts. On the other hand, precipitation during the wet seasons also shows an increasing trend. Air temperatures have also increased slightly. Also with increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, it is currently unclear what effect these climate changes are having on the forest carbon balance of the region. Current indications are that the forests of the Amazon Basin have acted as a substantial long-term carbon sink, but with the most recent measurements suggesting that this sink may be weakening. Economic development of the tropical regions of the continent is advancing steadily, with exports of agricultural products being an important driver and witnessing a strong upturn over the last decade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes regional study provides a synthesis of the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in East Asia, a region comprised of China, Japan, North- and South-Korea, and Mongolia. We estimate the current terrestrial carbon balance of East Asia and its driving mechanisms during 1990-2009 using three di?erent approaches: inventories combined with satellite greenness measurements, terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle models and atmospheric inversion models. The magnitudes of East Asia's natural carbon sink from these three approaches are comparable: -0.264±0.033 PgC yr-1 from inventory-remote sensing model-data fusion approach, -0.393±0.141 PgC yr-1 (not considering biofuel emissions) or -0.204±0.141 PgC yr-1 (considering biofuel emissions) for carbon cycle models, and -0.270±0.507 PgC yr-1 for atmospheric inverse models. The ensemble of ecosystem modeling based analyses further suggests that at the regional scale, climate change and rising atmospheric CO2 together resulted in a carbon sink of -0.289±0.135 PgC yr-1 , while land use change and nitrogen deposition had a contribution of -0.013±0.029 PgCyr and -0.107±0.025 PgC yr-1 , respectively. Although the magnitude of climate change effects on the carbon balance varies among different models, all models agree that in response to climate change alone, southern China experienced an increase in carbon storage from 1990 to 2009, while northern East Asia including Mongolia and north China showed a decrease in carbon storage. Overall, our results suggest that about 13-26% of East Asia's CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning have been offset by carbon accumulation in its terrestrial ecosystems over the period from 1990 to 2009. The underlying mechanisms of carbon sink over East Asia still remain largely uncertain, given the diversity and intensity of land management processes, and the regional conjunction of many drivers such as nutrient deposition, climate, atmospheric pollution and CO2 changes, which cannot be considered as independent for their effects on carbon storage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We attempt to summarize the carbon budget of South America and relate it to its dominant controls: population and economic growth, changes in land use practices and a changing atmospheric environment and climate. Flux estimation methods which we consider sufficiently reliable are fossil fuel emission inventories, biometric analysis of old-growth rainforests, estimation of carbon release associated with deforestation based on remote sensing and inventories, and finally inventories of agricultural exports. Other routes to estimating land-atmosphere CO2 fluxes include atmospheric transport inverse modelling and vegetation model predictions but are hampered by the data paucity and the need for improved parameterisation. The available data we analyze suggest that South America was a net source to the atmosphere during the 1980s (~0.3-0.4 PgCyr-1) and close to neutral (~0.1 PgCyr-1) in the 1990s with carbon uptake in old-growth forests nearly compensating carbon losses due to fossil fuel burning and deforestation. Annual mean precipitation over tropical South America measured by Amazon River discharge has a long-term upward trend, although over the last decade, dry seasons have tended to be drier and longer (and thus wet seasons wetter), with the years 2005 and 2010 experiencing strong droughts. It is currently unclear what the effect of these climate changes on the old-growth forest carbon sink will be but first measurements suggest it may be weakened. Based on scaling of forest census data the net carbon balance of South America seems to have been an increased source roughly over the 2005-2010 period (a total of ~1 PgC of dead tree biomass released over several years) due to forest drought response. Finally, economic development of the tropical forest regions of the continent is advancing steadily with exports of agricultural products being an important driver and witnessing a strong upturn over the last decade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the development and evaluation of the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2 (HadGEM2) Earth system model for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The Earth system model describes physical, biological and chemical processes including in the atmosphere, cryosphere, and marine biosphere. It discusses the impact of the model on the climate prediction and biochemical feedbacks.

The article presents a study which describes the modelling of carbon fluxes and vegetation dynamics in version 2.2 of the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES). Several features of the JULES are highlighted which include a coupled scheme of leaf photosynthesis, a canopy scheme for light interception and a description of methane emissions. It concludes that the JULES model is well-suited in studies about the carbon cycle and climate change.

The article presents a study which describes the energy and water components of the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES). The community land surface model was developed from the Met Office Surface Exchange Scheme (MOSES) in Great Britain. The JULES model has been coupled with the Unified Model (UM) to improve the weather forecasting and climate change prediction systems.

We have incorporated a semi-mechanistic isoprene emission module into the JULES land-surface scheme, as a first step towards a modelling tool that can be applied for studies of vegetation -- atmospheric chemistry interactions, including chemistry-climate feedbacks. Here, we evaluate the coupled model against local above-canopy isoprene emission flux measurements from six flux tower sites as well as satellite-derived estimates of isoprene emission over tropical South America and east and south Asia. The model simulates diurnal variability well: correlation coefficients are significant (at the 95% level) for all flux tower sites. The model reproduces day-to-day variability with significant correlations (at the 95% confidence level) at four of the six flux tower sites. At the UMBS site, a complete set of seasonal observations is available for two years (2000 and 2002). The model reproduces the seasonal pattern of emission during 2002, but does less well in the year 2000. The model overestimates observed emissions at all sites, which is partially because it does not include isoprene loss through the canopy. Comparison with the satellite-derived isoprene-emission estimates suggests that the model simulates the main spatial patterns, seasonal and inter-annual variability over tropical regions. The model yields a global annual isoprene emission of 535 ± 9 TgC yr-1 during the 1990s, 78% of which from forested areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a study which aimed to identify a set of benchmark tests which is designed to measure the performance of the land surface model which is utilized in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) model. It notes that the tests will assess the capacity of the model to simulate the observed fluxes of water and carbon at the global and regional spatial scale. It concludes that the combined use of carbon and water fluxes is vital to understand the causes of model errors.

The article discusses a research study which describes a set of benchmark tests to assess the performance of a land surface model. The assessment focuses on the capacity of the said model to redevelop the observed fluxes of water and carbon at the global and regional spatial scale. Findings reveal the importance of combined observations for carbon and water fluxes to realize the causes of errors in the model.

The article offers information on the efficiency of the modelling system called IMOGEN. It notes that the modelling system is created to identify the impact of climate change on the biogeochemical and physical behavior of the land surface through global and regional assessment. It adds that the IMOGEN modelling system can also evaluate how terrestrial process understand influences climate predictions.

Future climate change will have impact on global and regional terrestrial carbon balances. The fate of African tropical forests over the 21st century has been investigated through global coupled climate carbon cycle model simulations. Under the SRES-A2 socio-economic CO2 emission scenario of the IPCC, and using the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace coupled ocean-terrestrial carbon cycle and climate model, IPSL-CM4-LOOP, we found that the warming over African ecosystems induces a reduction of net ecosystem productivity, making a 38% contribution to the global climate-carbon cycle positive feedback. Most of this contribution comes from African grasslands, followed by African savannahs, African tropical forest contributing little to the global climate-carbon feedback. However, the vulnerability of the African rainforest ecosystem is quite large. In contrast, the Amazon forest, despite its lower vulnerability, has a much larger overall contribution due to its 6 times larger extent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exchange of non-CO2 trace gases between the land surface and the atmosphere plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry and climate. Recent studies have highlighted its importance for interpretation of glacial-interglacial ice-core records, the simulation of the pre-industrial and present atmosphere, and the potential for large climate-chemistry and climate-aerosol feedbacks in the coming century. However, spatial and temporal variations in trace gas emissions and the magnitude of future feedbacks are a major source of uncertainty in atmospheric chemistry, air quality and climate science. To reduce such uncertainties Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) are currently being expanded to mechanistically represent processes relevant to non-CO2 trace gas exchange between land biota and the atmosphere. In this paper we present a review of important non-CO2 trace gas emissions, the state-of-the-art in DGVM modelling of processes regulating these emissions, identify key uncertainties for global scale model applications, and discuss a methodology for model integration and evaluation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exchange of non-CO2 trace gases between the land surface and the atmosphere plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry and climate. Recent studies have highlighted its importance for interpretation of glacial-interglacial ice-core records, the simulation of the pre-industrial and present atmosphere, and the potential for large climatechemistry and climate-aerosol feedbacks in the coming century. However, spatial and temporal variations in trace gas emissions and the magnitude of future feedbacks are a major source of uncertainty in atmospheric chemistry, air quality and climate science. To reduce such uncertainties Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) are 10 currently being expanded to mechanistically represent processes relevant to non-CO2 trace gas exchange between land biota and the atmosphere. In this paper we present a review of important non-CO2 trace gas emissions, the state-of-the-art in DGVM modelling of processes regulating these emissions, identify key uncertainties for global scale model applications, and discuss a methodology for model integration and evaluation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the importance of Amazon rainforest in the global carbon and hydrological cycles, there is a need to parameterize and validate ecosystem gas exchange and vegetation models for this region in order to adequately simulate present and future carbon and water balances. In this study, a sun and shade canopy gas exchange model is calibrated and evaluated at five rainforest sites using eddy correlation measurements of carbon and energy fluxes. Results from the model-data evaluation suggest that with adequate parameterisation, photosynthesis models taking into account the separation of diffuse and direct irradiance and the dynamics of sunlit and shaded leaves can accurately represent photosynthesis in these forests. Also, stomatal conductance formulations that only take into account atmospheric demand fail to correctly simulate moisture and CO2 fluxes in forests with a pronounced dry season, particularly during afternoon conditions. Nevertheless, it is also the case that large uncertainties are associated not only with the eddy correlation data, but also with the estimates of ecosystem respiration required for model validation. To accurately simulate Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) and energy partitioning the most critical parameters and model processes are the quantum yield of photosynthetic uptake, the maximum carboxylation capacity of Rubisco, and simulation of stomatal conductance. Using this model-data synergy, we developed scaling functions to provide estimates of canopy photosynthetic parameters for a range of diverse forests across the Amazon region, utilising the best fitted parameter for maximum carboxylation capacity of Rubisco, and foliar nutrients (N and P) for all sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Future climate change will have impact on global and regional terrestrial carbon balances. The fate of African tropical forests over the 21st century has been investigated through global coupled climate carbon cycle model simulations. Under the SRES- A2 socio-economic CO2 emission scenario of the IPCC, and using the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace coupled ocean-terrestrial carbon cycle and climate model, IPSL-CM4- LOOP, we found that the warming over African ecosystems induces a reduction of net ecosystem productivity, making a 20% contribution to the global climate-carbon cycle positive feedback. However, the African rainforest ecosystem alone makes only a negligible contribution to the overall feedback, much smaller than the one arising from the Amazon forest. This is first because of the two times smaller area of forest in Africa, but also because of the relatively lower local land carbon cycle sensitivity to climate change. This beneficial role of African forests in mitigating future climate change should be taken into account when designing forest conservation policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]