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The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) provides daily analyses and forecasts of the composition of the atmosphere, including the reactive gases such as O3 , CO , NO2 , HCHO and SO2 ; aerosol species; and greenhouse gases. The global CAMS analysis system (IFS-COMPO) is based on the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) for numerical weather prediction (NWP) and assimilates a large number of composition satellite products on top of the meteorological observations ingested in IFS. The CAMS system receives regular upgrades, following the upgrades of IFS. The last upgrade, Cy48R1, operational since 27 June 2023, was major with a large number of code changes, both for IFS-COMPO and for NWP. The main IFS-COMPO innovations include the introduction of full stratospheric chemistry; a major update of the emissions; a major update of the aerosol model, including the representation of secondary organic aerosol; several updates of the dust life cycle and optics; updates to the inorganic chemistry in the troposphere; and the assimilation of Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) aerosol optical depth (AOD) and TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) CO. The CAMS Cy48R1 upgrade was validated using a large number of independent measurement datasets, including surface in situ, surface remote sensing, routine aircraft, and balloon and satellite observations. In this paper we present the validation results for Cy48R1 by comparing them with the skill of the previous operational system (Cy47R3), with the independent observations as reference, for the period October 2022 to June 2023, during which daily forecasts from both cycles are available. Major improvements in skill are found for the ozone profile in the lower–middle stratosphere and for stratospheric NO2 due to the inclusion of full stratospheric chemistry. Stratospheric trace gases compare well with the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) observations between 10 and 200 hPa, with larger deviations between 1 and 10 hPa. The impact of the updated emissions is especially visible over East Asia and is beneficial for the trace gases O3 , NO2 and SO2. The CO column assimilation is now anchored by the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) instead of the Measurements Of Pollution in The Troposphere (MOPITT) instrument, which is beneficial for most of the CO comparisons, and the assimilation of TROPOMI CO data improves the model CO field in the troposphere. In general the aerosol optical depth has improved globally, but the dust evaluation shows more mixed results. The results of the 47 comparisons are summarised in a scorecard, which shows that 83 % of the evaluation datasets show a neutral or improved performance of Cy48R1 compared to the previous operational CAMS system, while 17 % indicate a (slight) degradation. This demonstrates the overall success of this upgrade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global monitoring of aerosols is required to analyse the impacts of aerosols on air quality and to understand their role in modulating the climate variability. The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) provides near-real-time forecasts and reanalyses of aerosols using the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), constrained by the assimilation of MODIS and Polar Multi-Sensor Aerosol Optical Properties (PMAp) aerosol optical depth (AOD). Given the potential end of lifetime of MODIS AOD, implementing new AOD observations in the CAMS operational suite is a priority to ensure the continuity of the CAMS forecast performances. The objective of this work is to test the assimilation of the NOAA VIIRS AOD product from S-NPP and NOAA20 satellites in the IFS model. Simulation experiments assimilating VIIRS on top or in place of MODIS were carried out from June 2021 to November 2021 to evaluate the impacts on the AOD analysis. For maritime aerosol background, the assimilation of VIIRS and the use of VIIRS from NOAA20 as an anchor reduce the analysis AOD values compared to MODIS-based experiments, in which the analysis values were too high due to the positive bias of MODIS/Terra over ocean. Over land, the assimilation of VIIRS induces a large increase in the analysis over biomass burning regions where VIIRS shows larger AOD than MODIS due to differences in the aerosol models and cloud filtering between MODIS and VIIRS retrieval algorithms. For dust source regions, the analysis is reduced when VIIRS is assimilated on top of or in place of MODIS, particularly over the Sahara, the Arabian Peninsula and a few places in Asia in the July–August period. The assimilation of VIIRS leads to an overall reduction of the bias in AOD analysis evaluated against AERONET measurements, with the largest bias reduction over Europe and desert and maritime sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) provides near-real-time forecast and reanalysis of aerosols using the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System with atmospheric composition extension, constrained by the assimilation of MODIS and the Polar Multi-Sensor Aerosol Optical Properties (PMAp) aerosol optical depth (AOD). The objective of this work is to evaluate two new near-real-time AOD products to prepare for their assimilation into CAMS, namely the Copernicus AOD (collection 1) from the Sea and Land Surface Temperature Radiometer (SLSTR) on board Sentinel 3-A/B over ocean and the NOAA EPS AOD (v2.r1) from VIIRS on board S-NPP and NOAA20 over both land and ocean. The differences between MODIS (C6.1), PMAp (v2.1), VIIRS (v2.r1), and SLSTR (C1) AOD as well as their departure from the modeled AOD were assessed at the model grid resolution (i.e., level-3) using the 3-month AOD average (December 2019–February 2020 and March–May 2020). VIIRS and MODIS show the best consistency across the products, which is explained by instrument and retrieval algorithm similarities. VIIRS AOD is frequently lower over the ocean background and higher over biomass burning and dust source land regions compared to MODIS. VIIRS shows larger spatial coverage over land and resolves finer spatial structures such as the transport of Australian biomass burning smoke over the Pacific, which can be explained by the use of a heavy aerosol detection test in the retrieval algorithm. Our results confirm the positive offset over ocean (i) between Terra/MODIS and Aqua/MODIS due to the non-corrected radiometric calibration degradation of Terra/MODIS in the Dark Target algorithm and (ii) between SNPP/VIIRS and NOAA20/VIIRS due to the positive bias in the solar reflective bands of SNPP/VIIRS. SLSTR AOD shows much smaller level-3 values than the rest of the products, which is mainly related to differences in spatial representativity at the IFS grid spatial resolution due to the stringent cloud filtering applied to the SLSTR radiances. Finally, the geometry characteristics of the instrument, which drive the range of scattering angles sampled by the instrument, can explain a large part of the differences between retrievals such as the positive offset between PMAp datasets from MetOp-B and MetOp-A. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought is predicted to increase in the future due to climate change, bringing with it myriad impacts on ecosystems. Plants respond to drier soils by reducing stomatal conductance in order to conserve water and avoid hydraulic damage. Despite the importance of plant drought responses for the global carbon cycle and local and regional climate feedbacks, land surface models are unable to capture observed plant responses to soil moisture stress. We assessed the impact of soil moisture stress on simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) and latent energy flux (LE) in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) vn4.9 on seasonal and annual timescales and evaluated 10 different representations of soil moisture stress in the model. For the default configuration, GPP was more realistic in temperate biome sites than in the tropics or high-latitude (cold-region) sites, while LE was best simulated in temperate and high-latitude (cold) sites. Errors that were not due to soil moisture stress, possibly linked to phenology, contributed to model biases for GPP in tropical savanna and deciduous forest sites. We found that three alternative approaches to calculating soil moisture stress produced more realistic results than the default parameterization for most biomes and climates. All of these involved increasing the number of soil layers from 4 to 14 and the soil depth from 3.0 to 10.8 m. In addition, we found improvements when soil matric potential replaced volumetric water content in the stress equation (the "soil14_psi" experiments), when the critical threshold value for inducing soil moisture stress was reduced ("soil14_p0"), and when plants were able to access soil moisture in deeper soil layers ("soil14_dr*2"). For LE, the biases were highest in the default configuration in temperate mixed forests, with overestimation occurring during most of the year. At these sites, reducing soil moisture stress (with the new parameterizations mentioned above) increased LE and increased model biases but improved the simulated seasonal cycle and brought the monthly variance closer to the measured variance of LE. Further evaluation of the reason for the high bias in LE at many of the sites would enable improvements in both carbon and energy fluxes with new parameterizations for soil moisture stress. Increasing the soil depth and plant access to deep soil moisture improved many aspects of the simulations, and we recommend these settings in future work using JULES or as a general way to improve land surface carbon and water fluxes in other models. In addition, using soil matric potential presents the opportunity to include plant functional type-specific parameters to further improve modeled fluxes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought is predicted to increase in the future due to climate change, bringing with it a myriad of impacts on ecosystems. Plants respond to drier soils by reducing stomatal conductance, in order to conserve water and avoid hydraulic damage. Despite the importance of plant drought responses for the global carbon cycle and local/regional climate feedbacks, land surface models are unable to capture observed plant responses to soil moisture stress. We assessed the impact of soil moisture stress on simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) and latent energy flux (LE) in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) vn4.9 on seasonal and annual timescales, and evaluated ten different representations of stress in the model. For the default configuration, GPP was more realistic in temperate biome sites than in the tropics or high latitudes/cold region sites, while LE was best simulated in temperate and high latitude/cold sites. Errors not due to soil moisture stress, possibly linked to phenology, contributed to model biases for GPP in tropical savannah and deciduous forest sites. We found that three alternative approaches to calculating soil moisture stress produced more realistic results than the default parameterization for most biomes and climates. All of these involved increasing the number of soil layers from 4 to 14, and the soil depth from 3m to 10.8m. In addition, we found improvements when soil matric potential replaced volumetric water content in the stress equation, when the onset of stress was delayed, and when roots extended deeper into the soil. For LE, the biases were highest in the default configuration in temperate mixed forests, with overestimation occurring during most of the year. At these sites, reducing soil moisture stress (with the new parameterizations mentioned above) increased LE and made the simulation worse. Further evaluation into the reason for the high bias in LE at many of the sites would enable improvements in both carbon and energy fluxes with new parameterizations for soil moisture stress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Enhanced modelling of evapotranspiration (ET) is required to address important research questions such as the impacts of changes in land-cover and land-use on the hydrological response of catchments to rainfall. ET has been recognized as one of the most uncertain terms in the surface water balance simulated by land surface models. Uncertainties in simulated ET can be attributed to (i) model structure and parameters and (ii) errors in the forcing variables used to drive the model and to integrate it spatially. A single-source surface energy balance does not account for radiative and turbulent interactions between the canopy air space and the substrate below the canopy. This can be a strong source of structural uncertainties in surface fluxes simulated over heterogeneous surfaces (e.g. forest canopy partially buried by snow, sparse vegetation with large fraction of bare ground) for which the substrate has a significant impact on the total energy balance. However, while separate representation of the energy exchanges for the substrate and the canopy should provide more realistic modelling framework, the larger number of parameters may increase the total uncertainties for large-scale simulations. This goal of this work is to assess the uncertainties in the modelling of the energy balance in a land surface model and its impact on the simulation of evapotranspiration and the partitioning between soil evaporation, plant transpiration and canopy interception. This study was achieved within the Hydro-JULES project which aims at developing an integrated land surface-hydrological modelling platform in conjunction with the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model. We evaluated the dual-source scheme that has been recently implemented in the JULES land surface model. This work has two objectives:- assess the performances of the JULES dual-source against in situ observations at various contrasted sites: BERMS (Saskatchewan) forest site; Avignon (France) Mediterranean crop site and semi-arid olive orchard sites in Morocco and Tunisia. - conduct a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis to identify the most influential parameters of the dual-source scheme on the simulation of evapotranspiration and its partitioning.The outcomes of this work will help to identify in which environmental conditions (soil, climate, surface heterogeneity) a dual-source scheme provides more accurate estimation of total evapotranspiration than a single-source model. The partitioning of ET into soil evaporation and plant transpiration will also be evaluated for sites for which sap flow or isotopic measurements were available. This study will bring key insights on the compromise to reach between enhanced modelling complexity and increased uncertainties generated by a larger number of parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]