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We present a new mechanistic model, Stochastic Lagrangian Aggregate Model of Sinking particles (SLAMS) for the biological pump in the ocean, which tracks the evolution of individual particles as they aggregate, disaggregate, sink, and are altered by chemical and biological processes. SLAMS considers the impacts of ballasting by mineral phases, binding of aggregates by transparent exopolymer particles (TEP), zooplankton grazing, and the fractal geometry (porosity) of the aggregates. Parameterizations for age-dependent organic carbon (orgC) degradation kinetics, and disaggregation driven by zooplankton grazing and TEP degradation, are motivated by observed particle fluxes and size spectra throughout the water column. The model is able to explain observed variations in orgC export efficiency and rain ratio from the euphotic zone and to the sea floor as driven by sea surface temperature and the primary production rate and seasonality of primary production. The model provides a new mechanistic framework with which to predict future changes on the flux attenuation of orgC in response to climate change forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A two-dimensional model of a sediment column, with Darcy fluid flow, biological and thermal methane production, and permafrost and methane hydrate formation, is subjected to glacial-interglacial cycles in sea level, alternately exposing the continental shelf to the cold atmosphere during glacial times and immersing it in the ocean in interglacial times. The glacial cycles are followed by a "long-tail" 100 kyr warming due to fossil fuel combustion. The salinity of the sediment column in the interior of the shelf can be decreased by hydrological forcing to depths well below sea level when the sediment is exposed to the atmosphere. There is no analogous advective seawater-injecting mechanism upon resubmergence, only slower diffusive mechanisms. This hydrological ratchet is consistent with the existence of freshwater beneath the sea floor on continental shelves around the world, left over from the last glacial period. The salt content of the sediment column affects the relative proportions of the solid and fluid H2O-containing phases, but in the permafrost zone the salinity in the pore fluid brine is a function of temperature only, controlled by equilibrium with ice. Ice can tolerate a higher salinity in the pore fluid than methane hydrate can at low pressure and temperature, excluding methane hydrate from thermodynamic stability in the permafrost zone. The implication is that any methane hydrate existing today will be insulated from anthropogenic climate change by hundreds of meters of sediment, resulting in a response time of thousands of years. The strongest impact of the glacial-interglacial cycles on the atmospheric methane flux is due to bubbles dissolving in the ocean when sea level is high. When sea level is low and the sediment surface is exposed to the atmosphere, the atmospheric flux is sensitive to whether permafrost inhibits bubble migration in the model. If it does, the atmospheric flux is highest during the glaciating, sea level regression (soil-freezing) part of the cycle rather than during deglacial transgression (warming and thawing). The atmospheric flux response to a warming climate is small, relative to the rest of the methane sources to the atmosphere in the global budget, because of the ongoing flooding of the continental shelf. The increased methane flux due to ocean warming could be completely counteracted by a sea level rise of tens of meters on millennial timescales due to the loss of ice sheets, decreasing the efficiency of bubble transit through the water column. The model results give no indication of a mechanism by which methane emissions from the Siberian continental shelf could have a significant impact on the near-term evolution of Earth's climate, but on millennial timescales the release of carbon from hydrate and permafrost could contribute significantly to the fossil fuel carbon burden in the atmosphere-ocean-terrestrial carbon cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

River flow is a reflection of the input of moisture and its transformation in storage and transmission over the catchment. In the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), since high-altitude climate measurement and observations of glacier mass balance are weak or absent, analysis of trends in magnitude and timing in river flow provides a window on trends and fluctuations in climate and glacier outflow. Trend analysis is carried out using a Mann-Kendall nonparametric trend test on records extending from 1960 to 1998. High-level glacial catchments show a falling trend in runoff magnitude and a declining proportion of glacial contribution to the main stem of the Indus. Elsewhere annual flow has predominantly increased with several stations exhibiting statistically significant positive trends. Analysis of timing using spring onset date (SOT) and centre of volume date (CoV) indicated no clear trends - in direct contrast to what has been observed in western North America. There is, however, a consistent relationship between CoV and annual runoff volume. A consistently positive correlation was also found between SOT and CoV for all the stations, implying that initial snowpack conditions before the onset of runoff influence timing throughout the season. The results of the analysis presented here indicate that the magnitude and timing of streamflow hydrograph is influenced both by the initial snowpack and by seasonally varied trends in temperature. The study contributes to the understanding of the links between climate trends and variability and river runoff and glacier mass balance and runoff. The Upper Indus Basin is predominantly influenced by winter precipitation; similar trend analysis applied to summer-monsoon-dominated catchments of the central Himalaya is recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

River flow is a reflection of the input of moisture and its transformation in storage and transmission over the catchment. In the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), since high altitude climate measurement and observations of glacier mass balance are weak or absent, analysis of trends in magnitude and timing in river flow provides a window on trends and fluctuations in climate and glacier outflow. Trend analysis is carried out using a Mann-Kendall nonparametric trend test on records extending from 1960 to 1998. High level glacial catchments show a falling trend in runoff magnitude and a declining proportion of glacial contribution to the main stem of the Indus. Elsewhere annual flow has predominantly increased with several stations exhibiting statistically significant positive trends. Analysis of timing using spring onset date (SOT) and centre of volume date (CoV) indicated no clear trends -- in direct contrast to what has been observed in Western North America. There is, however, a consistent relationship between CoV and annual runoff volume. A consistently positive correlation was also found between SOT and CoV for all the stations implying that initial snowpack conditions before the onset of runoff influence timing throughout the season. The results of the analysis presented here indicate that the magnitude and timing of streamflow hydrograph is influenced both by the initial snowpack and by seasonally varied trends in temperature. The study contributes to the understanding of the links between climate trends and variability and river runoff and glacier mass balance and runoff. The Upper Indus Basin is predominantly influenced by winter precipitation; similar trend analysis applied to summer monsoon dominated catchments of the Central Himalaya is recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A two-dimensional model of sediment column geophysics and geochemistry has been adapted to the problem of an accretionary wedge formation, patterned after the margin of the Juan de Fuca plate as it subducts under the North American plate. Much of the model description is given in a companion paper about the application of the model to an idealized passive margin setting; here we build on that formulation to simulate the impact of the sediment deformation, as it approaches the subduction zone, on the methane cycle. The active margin configuration of the model shares sensitivities with the passive margin configuration, in that sensitivities to organic carbon deposition and respiration kinetics, and to vertical bubble transport and redissolution in the sediment, are stronger than the sensitivity to ocean temperature. The active margin simulation shows a complex sensitivity of hydrate inventory to plate subduction velocity, with results depending strongly on the geothermal heat flux. In low heat-flux conditions, the model produces a larger inventory of hydrate per meter of coastline in the passive margin than active margin configurations. However, the local hydrate concentrations, as pore volume saturation, are higher in the active setting than in the passive, as generally observed in the field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a new geologic-time and basin-spatial scale model of the continental margin methane cycle. The model, SpongeBOB, is used to simulate evolution of the carbon cycle in a passive sedimentary continental margin in response to changing oceanographic and geologic forcing over a time scale of 200 million years. The geochemistry of the sediment column is altered by the addition of vertical high-permeability channels intended to mimic the effects of heterogeneity in the real sediment column due to faults, and produces results consistent with measured pore-water tracers SODue to image rights restrictions, multiple line equation(s) cannot be graphically displayed. and 129I. Pore water dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentrations are consistent with chemical weathering (CaCO3 formation from igneous rocks) at depth within the sediment column. The carbon isotopic composition of the DIC is consistent with a methane production efficiency from particulate organic carbon (POC) of 50%, which is somewhat lower than redox balance with the H/C of organic matter in the model. The hydrate inventory in the model is somewhat less sensitive to temperature than our previous results with a one-dimensional model, quite sensitive to reasonable changes in POC, and extremely sensitive to the ability of methane bubbles to rise within the sediment column, and how far gas-phase methane can get through the sediment column before it redissolves when it reaches undersaturated conditions. Hydrate formation is also sensitive to deep respiration of migrating petroleum. Other phenomena which we simulated had only a small impact on the hydrate inventory, including thermogenic methane production and production/decomposition of dissolved organic carbon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During glacial-interglacial cycles, atmospheric CO2 concentration varied by about 100 ppmv in amplitude. While testing mechanisms that have led to the low glacial CO2 level could be done in equilibrium model experiments, an ultimate goal is to explain CO2 changes in transient simulations through the complete glacial-interglacial cycle. The computationally efficient Earth System model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2 is used to simulate global biogeochemistry over the last glacial cycle (126 kyr). The physical core of the model (atmosphere, ocean, land and ice sheets) is driven by orbital changes and reconstructed radiative forcing from greenhouses gases, ice, and aeolian dust. The carbon cycle model is able to reproduce the main features of the CO2 changes: a 50 ppmv CO2 drop during glacial inception, a minimum concentration at the last glacial maximum 80 ppmv lower than the Holocene value, and an abrupt 60 ppmv CO2 rise during the deglaciation. The model deep ocean &dgr;13C also resembles reconstructions from deep-sea cores. The main drivers of atmospheric CO2 evolve in time: changes in sea surface temperatures and in the volume of bottom water of southern origin control atmospheric CO2 during the glacial inception and deglaciation; changes in carbonate chemistry and marine biology are dominant during the first and second parts of the glacial cycle, respectively. These feedback mechanisms could also significantly impact the ultimate climate response to the anthropogenic perturbation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During glacial-interglacial cycles, atmospheric CO2 concentration varied by about 100 ppmv in amplitude. While testing mechanisms that had led to the low glacial CO2 level could be done in equilibrium model experiments, an ultimate goal is to explain CO2 changes in transient simulations through the complete glacial-interglacial cycle. A computationally efficient Earth System model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2 is used to simulate global biogeochemistry over the last glacial cycle (126 kyr). The physical core of the model (atmosphere, ocean, land and ice sheets) is driven by orbital changes and reconstructed radiative forcing from greenhouses gases, ice, and aeolian dust. The carbon cycle model is able to reproduce the main features of the CO2 changes: a 50 ppmv CO2 drop during glacial inception, a minimum concentration at the last glacial maximum by 80 ppmv lower than the Holocene value, and an abrupt 60 ppmv CO2 rise during the deglaciation. The model deep ocean δ13C also resembles reconstructions from deep-sea cores. The main drivers of atmospheric CO2 evolve with time: changes in sea surface temperatures and in the volume of bottom water of southern origin controls atmospheric CO2 during the glacial inception and deglaciation, while changes in carbonate chemistry and marine biology are dominant during the first and second parts of the glacial cycle, respectively. These feedback mechanisms could also significantly impact the ultimate climate response to the anthropogenic perturbation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mountains are essential sources of freshwater for our world, but their role in global water resources could well be significantly altered by climate change. How well do we understand these potential changes today, and what are implications for water resources management, climate change adaptation, and evolving water policy? To answer above questions, we have examined 11 case study regions with the goal of providing a global overview, identifying research gaps and formulating recommendations for research, management and policy. After setting the scene regarding water stress, water management capacity and scientific capacity in our case study regions, we examine the state of knowledge in water resources from a highland-lowland viewpoint, focusing on mountain areas on the one hand and the adjacent lowland areas on the other hand. Based on this review, research priorities are identified, including precipitation, snow water equivalent, soil parameters, evapotranspiration and sublimation, groundwater as well as enhanced warming and feedback mechanisms. In addition, the importance of environmental monitoring at high altitudes is highlighted. We then make recommendations how advancements in the management of mountain water resources under climate change could be achieved in the fields of research, water resources management and policy as well as through better interaction between these fields. We conclude that effective management of mountain water resources urgently requires more detailed regional studies and more reliable scenario projections, and that research on mountain water resources must become more integrative by linking relevant disciplines. In addition, the knowledge exchange between managers and researchers must be improved and oriented towards long-term continuous interaction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mountains are essential sources of freshwater for our world, but their role in global water resources could well be significantly altered from anticipated climate change. How well do we understand these changes today, and what are implications for water resources management and for policy? With these questions in mind, a dozen researchers - most of them with experience in collaborating with water managers - from around the world assembled for a workshop in Göschenen, Switzerland on 16-19 September 2009 by invitation of the Mountain Research Initiative (MRI). Their goal was to develop an up-to-date overview of moun tain water resources and climate change and to identify pressing issues with relevance for science and society. This special issue of Hydrology and Earth System Sciences assembles contributions providing insight into climate change and water resources for selected casestudy mountain regions from around the world. The present introductory article is based on analysis of these regions and on the workshop discussions. We will give a brief overview of the subject (Sect. 1), introduce the case-study regions (Sect. 2) and examine the state of knowledge regarding the importance of water supply from mountain areas for water resources in the adjacent lowlands and anticipated climate change impacts (Sect. 3). From there, we will identify research and monitoring needs 20 (Sect. 4), make recommendations for research, water resources management and policy (Sect. 5) and finally draw conclusions (Sect. 6). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pakistan is highly dependent on water resources originating in the mountain sources of the upper Indus for irrigated agriculture which is the mainstay of its economy. Hence any change in available resources through climate change or socio-economic factors could have a serious impact on food security and the environment. In terms of both ratio of withdrawals to runoff and per-capita water availability, Pakistan's water resources are already highly stressed and will become increasingly so with projected population changes. Potential changes to supply through declining reservoir storage, the impact of waterlogging and salinity or over-abstraction of groundwater, or reallocations for environmental remediation of the Indus Delta or to meet domestic demands, will reduce water availability for irrigation. The impact of climate change on resources in the Upper Indus is considered in terms of three hydrological regimes - a nival regime dependent on melting of winter snow, a glacial regime, and a rainfall regime dependent on concurrent rainfall. On the basis of historic trends in climate, most notably the decline in summer temperatures, there is no strong evidence in favour of marked reductions in water resources from any of the three regimes. Evidence for changes in trans-Himalayan glacier mass balance is mixed. Sustainability of water resources appears more threatened by socio-economic changes than by climatic trends. Nevertheless, analysis and the understanding of the linkage of climate, glaciology and runoff is still far from complete; recent past climate experience may not provide a reliable guide to the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We compare modeled oceanic carbon uptake in response to pulse CO2 emissions using a suite of global ocean models and Earth system models. In response to a CO2 pulse emission of 590 Pg C (corresponding to an instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO2 from 278 to 556 ppm), the fraction of CO2 emitted that is absorbed by the ocean is: 37±8%, 56±10%, and 81±4% (model mean ±2σ) in year 30, 100, and 1000 after the emission pulse, respectively. Modeled oceanic uptake of pulse CO2 on timescales from decades to about a century is strongly correlated with simulated present-day uptake of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and CO2 across all models, while the amount of pulse CO2 absorbed by the ocean from a century to a millennium is strongly correlated with modeled radiocarbon in the deep Southern and Pacific Ocean. However, restricting the analysis to models that are capable of reproducing observations within uncertainty, the correlation is generally much weaker. The rates of surface-to-deep ocean transport are determined for individual models from the instantaneous doubling CO2 simulations, and they are used to calculate oceanic CO2 uptake in response to pulse CO2 emissions of different sizes pulses of 1000 and 5000 Pg C. These results are compared with simulated oceanic uptake of CO2 by a number of models simulations with the coupling of climate-ocean carbon cycle and without it. This comparison demonstrates that the impact of different ocean transport rates across models on oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 is of similar magnitude as that of climate-carbon cycle feedbacks in a single model, emphasizing the important role of ocean transport in the uptake of anthropogenic CO2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We assess uncertainties in projected oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 associated with uncertainties in model ocean transport using a suite of climate/carbon-cycle models. In response to a CO2 pulse emission of 590 PgC (corresponding to an instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO2 from 278 to 556 ppm), the fraction of CO2 emitted absorbed by the ocean (model mean ±2σ) is 37±8%, 56±10%, and 81±4% in year 30, 100, and 1000 after the emission pulse, respectively. Modeled oceanic uptake of excess CO2 on time scales from decades to about a century is strongly correlated with simulated present-day uptake of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and anthropogenic CO2, while the amount of excess CO2 absorbed by the ocean from a century to a millennium is strongly correlated with modeled radiocarbon in the deep Southern and Pacific Ocean. The rates of surface-to-deep ocean transport are determined for individual models from the instantaneous doubling CO2 experiments, and they are used to calculate oceanic uptake of CO2 in response to emission pulses of 1000 and 5000 PgC. These results are compared with simulated oceanic uptake of CO2 from a number of model simulations with the coupling of climate-ocean carbon cycle and without it. This comparison demonstrates that the impact of different ocean transport rate across models on the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 is of similar magnitude as that of climate-carbon cycle feed backs in a single model associated with changes in temperature, circulation, and marine biology, emphasizing the importance of ocean transport in the fate of anthropogenic CO2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Methane frozen into hydrate makes up a large reservoir of potentially volatile carbon below the sea floor and associated with permafrost soils. This reservoir intuitively seems precarious, because hydrate ice floats in water, and melts at Earth surface conditions. The hydrate reservoir is so large that if 10% of the methane were released to the atmosphere within a few years, it would have an impact on the Earth's radiation budget equivalent to a factor of 10 increase in atmospheric CO2. Hydrates are releasing methane to the atmosphere today in response to anthropogenic warming, for example along the Arctic coastline of Siberia. However most of the hydrates are located at depths in soils and ocean sediments where anthropogenic warming and any possible methane release will take place over time scales of millennia. Individual catastrophic releases like landslides and pockmark explosions are too small to reach a sizable fraction of the hydrates. The carbon isotopic excursion at the end of the Paleocene has been interpreted as the release of thousands of Gton C, possibly from hydrates, but the time scale of the release appears to have been thousands of years, chronic rather than catastrophic. The potential climate impact in the coming century from hydrate methane release is speculative but could be comparable to climate feedbacks from the terrestrial biosphere and from peat, significant but not catastrophic. On geologic timescales, it is conceivable that hydrates could release as much carbon to the atmosphere/ocean system as we do by fossil fuel combustion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]