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Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) typically requires tectonic b-values and seismic activity rates using declustered catalogues to compute the annual probability of exceedance of a given ground motion (for example, the Peak Ground Acceleration or PGA). In this work, we propose a methodology that includes the spatially-gridded time-dependent b-value and activity rate computation using seismic clusters in PSHA calculations. To account for the the spatial variability and the relationship of the earthquakes with the seismic sources, we incorporate the distance from the grid cell to the closest fault and the epicentre's uncertainty into the smoothing kernel as the average distance and the variance, respectively. To illustrate this methodology, we selected two scenarios, one in central Italy where L'Aquila earthquake happened and one in south-eastern Spain, where several earthquakes with a moment magnitude (Mw) greater than 4.0 have taken place over the last 30 years, including two earthquakes with greater than or equal to 5.0 Mw. We compared three different seismic activity models based on the parameters considered in the calculations (distance from spatial cells to faults and epicentral distance uncertainty) and we defined and calculated the changes of the annual probability of exceedance for a given background PGA value. The results reveal an oscillation of the changes of the annual probability of exceedance in the proximity of the occurrence of significant events. The increase is more significant in high seismicity areas, such as Italy, but it is no so evident in moderate seismicity regions as Spain. However, we have observed how, for moderate to low seismicity regions, the use of a non-declustered catalogue can be appropriate when computing time-dependent PSHA, as in the case of Spain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On 6 April 2009 at 01:32:39 UT a strong earthquake occurred west of L'Aquila at the very shallow depth of 9km. The main shock local magnitude was M1 = 5.8 (Mw = 6.3). Several powerful aftershocks occurred the following days. The epicentre of the main shock occurred 6 km away from the Geomagnetic Observatory of L'Aquila, on a fault 15km long having a NW-SE strike, about 140° and a SW dip of about 42° For this reason, L'Aquila seismic events offered very favourable conditions to detect possible electromagnetic emissions related to the earthquake. The data used in this work come from the permanent geomagnetic Observatories of L'Aquila and Duronia. Here the results concerning the analysis of the residual magnetic field estimated by means of the inter-station impulse response functions in the frequency band from 0.3 Hz to 3 Hz are shown. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we report on Total Electron Content (TEC) and Very Low Frequency (VLF) space measurements derived from Global Positioning System (GPS) and DEMETER satellites, respectively. These measurements are associated with the earthquake (EQ) of a magnitude of 6.3, which occurred on 6 April 2009, in L'Aquila (Italy). Anomaly features are derived from the analysis of TEC and VLF observations recorded two weeks before and after the seismic event occurrence. A TEC map with an interpolated regional pixel resolution of 1º x 1º x 15 min in latitude, longitude and time was generated, allowing for the checking of a possible presence of disturbances over the L'Aquila region. This analysis is combined with the study of the time profile associated to the VLF flux density variations recorded by the Instrument Champ Electrique (ICE) experiment on-board DEMETER satellite. We discuss, on the one hand, the combination efficiency of the electronic density and the VLF electromagnetic measurements and, on the other hand, the difficulty to distinguish between global effects and regional ones related to the earthquake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Crustal earthquakes with magnitude 6.0>M≧5.5 observed in Italy for the period 1979-2009 including the last one at L'Aquila on 6 April 2009 were considered to check if the earlier obtained relationships for ionospheric precursors for strong Japanese earthquakes are valid for the Italian moderate earthquakes. The ionospheric precursors are based on the observed variations of the sporadic E-layer parameters (h'Es, fbEs) and foF2 at the ionospheric station Rome. Empirical dependencies for the seismo-ionospheric disturbances relating the earthquake magnitude and the epicenter distance are obtained and they have been shown to be similar to those obtained earlier for Japanese earthquakes. The dependences indicate the process of spreading the disturbance from the epicenter towards periphery during the earthquake preparation process. Large lead times for the precursor occurrence (up to 34 days for M=5.8-5.9) tells about a prolong preparation period. A possibility of using the obtained relationships for the earthquakes prediction is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]