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A likely consequence of global warming will be the redistribution of Earth’s rain belts, affecting water availability for many of Earth’s inhabitants. We consider three ways in which planetary warming might influence the global distribution of precipitation. The first possibility is that rainfall in the tropics will increase and that the subtropics and mid-latitudes will become more arid. A second possibility is that Earth’s thermal equator, around which the planet’s rain belts and dry zones are organized, will migrate northward. This northward shift will be a consequence of the Northern Hemisphere, with its large continental area, warming faster than the Southern Hemisphere, with its large oceanic area. A third possibility is that both of these scenarios will play out simultaneously. We review paleoclimate evidence suggesting that (i) the middle latitudes were wetter during the last glacial maximum, (ii) a northward shift of the thermal equator attended the abrupt Bølling-Allerød climatic transition ~14.6 thousand years ago, and (iii) a southward shift occurred during the more recent Little Ice Age. We also inspect trends in seasonal surface heating between the hemispheres over the past several decades. From these clues, we predict that there will be a seasonally dependent response in rainfall patterns to global warming. During boreal summer, in which the rate of recent warming has been relatively uniform between the hemispheres, wet areas will get wetter and dry regions will become drier. During boreal winter, rain belts and drylands will expand northward in response to differential heating between the hemispheres.

Glacial maxima and their terminations provide key insights into inter-hemispheric climate dynamics and the coupling of atmosphere, surface and deep ocean, hydrology, and cryosphere, which is fundamental for evaluating the robustness of earth's climate in view of ongoing climate change. The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼26–19 ka ago) is widely seen as the global cold peak during the last glacial cycle, and its transition to the Holocene interglacial, dubbed 'Termination 1 (T1)', as the most dramatic climate reorganization during this interval. Climate records show that over the last 800 ka, ice ages peaked and terminated on average every 100 ka (‘100 ka world’). However, the mechanisms pacing glacial–interglacial transitions remain controversial and in particular the hemispheric manifestations and underlying orbital to regional driving forces of glacial maxima and subsequent terminations remain poorly understood. Here we show evidence for a full glacial maximum in the Southern Hemisphere 65.1 ± 2.7 ka ago and its ‘Unfinished Termination’. Our 10Be chronology combined with a model simulation demonstrates that New Zealand's glaciers reached their maximum position of the last glacial cycle during Marine Isotope Stage-4 (MIS-4). Southern ocean and greenhouse gas records indicate coeval peak glacial conditions, making the case for the Southern Glacial Maximum about halfway through the last glacial cycle and only 15 ka after the last warm period (MIS-5a). We present the hypothesis that subsequently, driven by boreal summer insolation forcing, a termination began but remained unfinished, possibly because the northern ice sheets were only moderately large and could not supply enough meltwater to the North Atlantic through Heinrich Stadial 6 to drive a full termination. Yet the Unfinished Termination left behind substantial ice on the northern continents (about 50% of the full LGM ice volume) and after another 45 ka of cooling and ice sheet growth the earth was at inter-hemispheric Last Glacial Maximum configuration, when similar orbital forcing hit maximum-size northern ice sheets and ushered in T1 and thus the ongoing interglacial. This argument highlights the critical role of full glacial conditions in both hemispheres for terminations and implies that the Southern Hemisphere climate could transition from interglacial to full glacial conditions in about 15,000 years, while the Northern Hemisphere and its continental ice-sheets required half a glacial cycle.

Millennial-scale temperature variations in Antarctica during the period 80,000 to 18,000 years ago are known to anti-correlate broadly with winter-centric cold–warm episodes revealed in Greenland ice cores. However, the extent to which climate fluctuations in the Southern Hemisphere beat in time with Antarctica, rather than with the Northern Hemisphere, has proved a controversial question. In this study we determine the ages of a prominent sequence of glacial moraines in New Zealand and use the results to assess the phasing of millennial climate change. Forty-four 10Be cosmogenic surface-exposure ages of boulders deposited by the Pukaki glacier in the Southern Alps document four moraine-building events from Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) through to the end of the Last Glacial Maximum (∼18,000 years ago; LGM). The earliest moraine-building event is defined by the ages of nine boulders on a belt of moraine that documents the culmination of a glacier advance 42,000 years ago. At the Pukaki locality this advance was of comparable scale to subsequent advances that, from the remaining exposure ages, occurred between 28,000 and 25,000, at 21,000, and at 18,000 years ago. Collectively, all four moraine-building events represent the LGM. The glacier advance 42,000 years ago in the Southern Alps coincides in Antarctica with a cold episode, shown by the isotopic record from the EPICA Dome C ice core, between the prominent A1 and A2 warming events. Therefore, the implication of the Pukaki glacier record is that as early as 42,000 years ago an episode of glacial cold similar to that of the LGM extended in the atmosphere from high on the East Antarctic plateau to at least as far north as the Southern Alps (∼44°S). Such a cold episode is thought to reflect the translation through the atmosphere and/or the ocean of the anti-phased effects of Northern Hemisphere interstadial conditions to the southern half of the Southern Hemisphere. Regardless of the mechanism, any explanation for the cold episode at 42,000 years ago must account for its widespread atmospheric footprint not only in Antarctica but also within the westerly wind belt in southern mid-latitudes.

Major changes in global rainfall patterns accompanied a northward shift of Earth’s thermal equator at the onset of an abrupt climate change 14.6 kya. This northward pull of Earth’s wind and rain belts stemmed from disintegration of North Atlantic winter sea ice cover, which steepened the interhemispheric meridional temperature gradient. A southward migration of Earth’s thermal equator may have accompanied the more recent Medieval Warm to Little Ice Age climate transition in the Northern Hemisphere. As fossil fuel CO2 warms the planet, the continents of the Northern Hemisphere are expected to warm faster than the Southern Hemisphere oceans. Therefore, we predict that a northward shift of Earth’s thermal equator, initiated by an increased interhemispheric temperature contrast, may well produce hydrologic changes similar to those that occurred during past Northern Hemisphere warm periods. If so, the American West, the Middle East, and southern Amazonia will become drier, and monsoonal Asia, Venezuela, and equatorial Africa will become wetter. Additional paleoclimate data should be acquired and model simulations should be conducted to evaluate the reliability of this analog.

Knowledge of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) response to past sea level and climate forcing is necessary to predict its response to warmer temperatures in the future. The timing and extent of past interior WAIS elevation changes provides insight to WAIS behavior and constraints for ice sheet models. Constraints prior to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) however, are rare. Surface exposure ages of glacial erratics near the WAIS divide at Mt. Waesche in Marie Byrd Land, and at the Ohio Range in the Transantarctic Mountains, range from ∼10 ka to >500 ka without a dependence on elevation. The probability distribution functions (PDF) of the exposure ages at both locations, are remarkably similar. During the last glaciation, maximum interior ice elevations as recorded by moraines and erratics were reached between 10 ka and 12 ka. However, most exposure ages are older than the LGM and cluster around ∼40 ka and ∼80 ka. The peak in the exposure age distributions at ∼40 ka includes ages of alpine moraine boulders at Mercer Ridge in the Ohio Range. Comparison of the PDF of exposures ages from the Ohio Range and Mt. Waesche with the temperature record from the Fuji Dome ice core indicates that the youngest peak in the exposure age distributions corresponds to the abrupt warming during the Last Glacial termination. A prominent peak in the Ohio Range PDF corresponds to the penultimate termination (stage 5e). During the intervening glacial period, there is not a consistent relationship between the peaks in the PDF at each location and temperature. A combined ice sheet/ice shelf model with forcing scaled to marine δ18O predicts that interior WAIS elevations near the ice divide have varied ∼300 m over the Last Glacial cycle. Peaks in the PDF correspond to model highstands over the last 200 ka. In the simulated elevation history, maximum ice elevations at Ohio Range (+100 m) and Mt. Waesche (+60 m) occur at ∼10 ka, in agreement with observations from these sites. During collapse of the marine portion of the WAIS, ice elevations at Ohio Range and Mt. Waesche are drawn down at least 200 m below the present ice elevation. The good correspondence between the model results and observations at both the Ohio Range and Mt. Waesche supports the conclusion that interior WAIS highstands do not occur during glacial maximums. Rather, the highstands are controlled primarily by increased accumulation during temperature maximums that occur early in the interglacials. Interior down-draw events follow highstands, resulting from the arrival of a wave of thinning triggered by retreat of the WAIS grounding line coupled with decreasing accumulation rates.

The termination of the last ice age featured a major reconfiguration of Earthʼs climate and cryosphere, yet the underlying causes of these massive changes continue to be debated. Documenting the spatial and temporal variations of atmospheric temperature during deglaciation can help discriminate among potential drivers. Here, we present a 10Be surface-exposure chronology and glaciological reconstruction of ice recession following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the Rakaia valley, Southern Alps of New Zealand. Innermost LGM moraines at Big Ben have an age of 17,840 ± 240 yrs, whereas ice-marginal moraines or ice-molded bedrock surfaces at distances up-valley from Big Ben of 12.5 km (Lake Coleridge), ∼25 km (Castle Hill), ∼28 km (Double Hill), ∼43 km (Prospect Hill), and ∼58 km (Reischek knob) have ages of 17,020 ± 70 yrs, 17,100 ± 110 yrs, 16,960 ± 370 yrs, 16,250 ± 340 yrs, and 15,660 ± 160 yrs, respectively. These results indicate extensive recession of the Rakaia glacier, which we attribute primarily to the effects of climatic warming. In conjunction with geomorphological maps and a glaciological reconstruction for the Rakaia valley, we use our chronology to infer timing and magnitude of past atmospheric temperature changes. Compared to an overall temperature rise of ∼4.65 °C between the end of the LGM and the start of the Holocene, the glacier recession between ∼17,840 and ∼15,660 yrs ago is attributable to a net temperature increase of ∼4.0 °C (from −6.25 to −2.25 °C), accounting for ∼86% of the overall warming. Approximately 3.75 °C (∼70%) of the warming occurred between ∼17,840 and ∼16,250 yrs ago, with a further 0.75 °C (∼16%) increase between ∼16,250 and ∼15,660 yrs ago. A sustained southward shift of the Subtropical Front (STF) south of Australia between ∼17,800 and ∼16,000 yrs ago coincides with the warming over the Rakaia valley, and suggests a close link between Southern Ocean frontal boundary positions and southern mid-latitude climate. Most of the deglacial warming in the Southern Alps occurred during the early part of Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1) of the North Atlantic region. Because the STF is associated with the position of the westerly wind belt, our findings support the concept that a southward shift of Earthʼs wind belts accompanied the early part of HS1 cooling in the North Atlantic, leading to warming and deglaciation in southern middle latitudes.

In situ cosmogenic 14C (in situ 14C) analysis from quartz-bearing rocks is a novel isotopic tool useful for quantifying recent surface exposure histories (up to ∼25 ka). It is particularly powerful when combined with longer-lived cosmogenic isotopes such as 10Be. Recent advances in the extraction of in situ 14C from quartz now permit the routine application of this method. However, only a few experiments to calibrate the production rate of in situ 14C in quartz have been published to date. Here, we present a new in situ 14C production rate estimate derived from a well-dated debris flow deposit in the Southern Alps, New Zealand, previously used to calibrate 10Be production rates. For example, based on a geomagnetic implementation of the Lal/Stone scaling scheme we derive a spallogenic production rate of 11.4 ± 0.9 atoms 14C (g quartz)−1 a−1 and a 14C/10Be spallogenic production rate ratio of 3.0 ± 0.2. The results are comparable with production rates from previous calibrations in the northern hemisphere.

Lake Estancia’s transition from a Big Dry episode during the first half of the Mystery Interval to a Big Wet episode during the second half has equivalents in records from across the planet. At the time of this transition, Chinese monsoons experienced pronounced weakening, closed-basin lakes in both the Great Basin of the western United States and in the southern Altiplano of South America underwent a major expansion, mountain glaciers in Southern Hemisphere middle latitudes had retreated, and the rates of increase of CO2 and of d18O in Antarctic ice underwent a decrease. Finally, the precipitous drop in dust rain over Antarctica and the Southern Ocean terminated as did a similar drop in the 13C to 12C ratio in atmospheric CO2. These changes are consistent with a southward shift of the thermal equator. The cause of such a shift is thought to be an expansion of sea ice caused by a shutdown in deep water production in the northern Atlantic. This creates a dilemma because a similar southward shift is an expected consequence of the Heinrich event #1 which initiated the Mystery Interval.

Climate proxy records from the middle to high latitude Southern Hemisphere indicate that a Lateglacial (15,000-11,500 years ago) climate reversal, approximately coeval with the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR), interrupted a warming trend during deglaciation. In New Zealand, some palaeoclimate proxy records indicate a cool episode during the ACR (ca 14,500-12,500 years ago), while others do not express a significant change in climate. Recently published moraine maps and ages present an opportunity to improve the palaeoclimate interpretation through numerical modelling of glaciers. We use a coupled energy-balance and ice-flow model to quantify palaeoclimate from past glacier extent constrained by mapped and dated moraines in the headwaters of Irishman Stream, a high-elevation catchment in the Southern Alps. First, a suite of steady-state model runs is used to identify the temperature and precipitation forcing required to fit the modelled glacier to well-dated Lateglacial moraine crests. Second, time dependent glacier simulations forced by a nearby proxy temperature record derived from chironomids are used to assess the fit with the glacial geomorphic record. Steady-state experiments using an optimal parameter set demonstrate that the conditions under which the 13,000 year old moraine formed were 2.3-3.2 *C colder than present with the range in temperature corresponding to a +/- 20% variance in precipitation relative to the present-day. This reconstructed climate change relative to the present-day corresponds to an equilibrium-line altitude of ca 2000 +/- 40 m above sea level (asl), which is ca 400 m lower than present. Time-dependent simulations of glacier length produce ice advance to within 100 m of the 13,000 year old terminal moraine, indicating that the chironomid-based temperature forcing and moraine record provide consistent information about past climate. Our results, together with other climate proxy reconstructions from pollen records and marine sediment cores, support the notion that temperatures during the ACR in New Zealand were ~2-3 *C cooler than today.

Existing paleoclimate data suggest a complex evolution of hydroclimate within the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) during the Holocene epoch. Here we introduce a new leaf wax isotope record from Sulawesi, Indonesia and compare proxy water isotope data with ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (OAGCM) simulations to identify mechanisms influencing Holocene IPWP hydroclimate. Modeling simulations suggest that orbital forcing causes heterogenous changes in precipitation across the IPWP on a seasonal basis that may account for the differences in time-evolution of the proxy data at respective sites. Both the proxies and simulations suggest that precipitation variability during the September–November (SON) season is important for hydroclimate in Borneo. The preëminence of the SON season suggests that a seasonally lagged relationship between the Indian monsoon and Indian Ocean Walker circulation influences IPWP hydroclimatic variability during the Holocene.