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Forecasting is an increasingly important part of our daily lives. Many studies on how people produce forecasts frame their behavior as prone to systematic errors. Based on recent evidence on how people learn about functions, we propose that participants’ forecasts are not irrational but rather driven by structured priors, i.e. situationally induced expectations of structure derived from experience with the real world. To test this, we extract participants’ priors over various contexts using a free-form forecasting paradigm. Instead of exhibiting systematic biases, our results show that participants’ priors match well with structure found in real-world data. Moreover, given the same data set, structured priors induce predictably different posterior forecasts depending on the evoked situational context.

How do people plan ahead when searching for rewards? We investigate planning in a foraging task in which participants search for rewards on an infinite two-dimensional grid. Our results show that their search is best-described by a model which searches at least 3 steps ahead. Furthermore, participants do not seem to update their beliefs during planning, but rather treat their initial beliefs as given, a strategy similar to a heuristic called root-sampling. This planning algorithm corresponds well with participants’ behavior in test problems with restricted movement and varying degrees of information, outperforming more complex models. These results enrich our understanding of adaptive planning in complex environments.

One key question is whether people rely on frugal heuristics or full-information strategies when making preference decisions. We propose a novel method, model-based active learning, to answer whether people conform more to a rank-based heuristic (Take-The-Best) or a weight-based full-information strategy (logistic regression). Our method eclipses traditional model comparison techniques by using information theory to characterize model predictions for how decision makers should actively sample information. These analyses capture how sampling affects learning and how learning affects decisions on subsequent trials. We develop and test model-based active learning algorithms for both Take-The-Best and logistic regression. Our findings reveal that people largely follow a weight-based learning strategy rather than a rank-based strategy, even in cases where their preference decisions are better predicted by the Take-The-Best heuristic. This finding suggests that people may have more refined knowledge than is revealed by their preference decisions, but which can be revealed by their information sampling behavior. We argue that model-based active learning is an effective and sensitive method for model selection that expands the basis for model comparison.

How do people pursue rewards in risky environments, where some outcomes should be avoided at all costs? We investigate how participant search for spatially correlated rewards in scenarios where one must avoid sampling rewards below a given threshold. This requires not only the balancing of exploration and exploitation, but also reasoning about how to avoid potentially risky areas of the search space. Within risky versions of the spatially correlated multi-armed bandit task, we show that participants’ behavior is aligned well with a Gaussian process function learning algorithm, which chooses points based on a safe optimization routine. Moreover, using leave-one-block-out cross-validation, we find that participants adapt their sampling behavior to the riskiness of the task, although the underlying function learning mechanism remains relatively unchanged. These results show that participants can adapt their search behavior to the adversity of the environment and enrich our understanding of adaptive behavior in the face of risk and uncertainty.

How do people explore in order to gain rewards in uncertain dynamical systems? Within a reinforcement learning paradigm, control normally involves trading off between exploration (i.e. trying out actions in order to gain more knowledge about the system) and exploitation (i.e. using current knowledge of the system to maximize reward). We study a novel control task in which participants must steer a boat on a grid, aiming to follow a path of high reward whilst learning how their actions affect the boat’s position. We find that participants explore strategically yet conservatively, exploring more when mistakes are less costly and practicing actions that will be required later on.