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High dimensional predictive models of Major Adverse Cardiac Events (MACE), which includes heart attack (AMI), stroke, and death caused by cardiovascular disease (CVD), were built using four longitudinal cohorts of Veterans Administration (VA) patients created from VA medical records. We considered 247 variables / risk factors measured across 7.5 years for millions of patients in order to compare predictions for the first reported MACE event using six distinct modelling methodologies. The best-performing methodology varied across the four cohorts. Model coefficients related to disease pathophysiology and treatment were relatively constant across cohorts, while coefficients dependent upon the confounding variables of age and healthcare utilization varied considerably across cohorts. In particular, models trained on a retrospective case-control (Rcc) cohort (where controls are matched to cases by date of birth cohort and overall level of healthcare utilization) emphasize variables describing pathophysiology and treatment, while predictions based on the cohort of all active patients at the start of 2017 (C-17) rely much more on age and variables reflecting healthcare utilization. In consequence, directly using an Rcc-trained model to evaluate the C-17 cohort resulted in poor performance (C-statistic = 0.65). However, a simple reoptimization of model dependence on age, demographics, and five other variables improved the C-statistic to 0.74, nearly matching the 0.76 obtained on C-17 by a C-17-trained model. Dependence of MACE risk on biomarkers for hypertension, cholesterol, diabetes, body mass index, and renal function in our models was consistent with the literature. At the same time, including medications and procedures provided important indications of both disease severity and the level of treatment. More detailed study designs will be required to disentangle these effects.

Drug repurposing provides a rapid approach to meet the urgent need for therapeutics to address COVID-19. To identify therapeutic targets relevant to COVID-19, we conducted Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses, deriving genetic instruments based on transcriptomic and proteomic data for 1,263 actionable proteins that are targeted by approved drugs or in clinical phase of drug development. Using summary statistics from the Host Genetics Initiative and the Million Veteran Program, we studied 7,554 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 and >1 million controls. We found significant Mendelian randomization results for three proteins (ACE2: P=1.6×10−6, IFNAR2: P=9.8×10−11, and IL-10RB: P=1.9×10−14) using cis-eQTL genetic instruments that also had strong evidence for colocalization with COVID-19 hospitalization. To disentangle the shared eQTL signal for IL10RB and IFNAR2, we conducted phenome-wide association scans and pathway enrichment analysis, which suggested that IFNAR2 is more likely to play a role in COVID-19 hospitalization. Our findings prioritize trials of drugs targeting IFNAR2 and ACE2 for early management of COVID-19.

Individuals vary in their liability to develop Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), the symptoms of which are highly heterogeneous, following exposure to life-threatening trauma. Understanding genetic factors that contribute to the biology of PTSD is critical for refining diagnosis and developing new treatments. Using genetic data from more than 250,000 participants in the Million Veteran Program, genomewide association analyses were conducted using a validated electronic health record-based algorithmically-defined PTSD diagnosis phenotype (48,221 cases and 217,223 controls), and PTSD quantitative symptom phenotypes (212,007 individuals). We identified several genome-wide significant loci in the case-control analyses, and numerous such loci in the quantitative trait analyses, including some (e.g., MAD1L1; TCF4; CRHR1) that were associated with multiple symptom sub-domains and total symptom score, and others that were more specific to certain symptom sub-domains (e.g., CAMKV to re-experiencing; SOX6 to hyperarousal). Genetic correlations between all pairs of symptom sub-domains and their total were very high (rg 0.93 – 0.98) supporting validity of the PTSD diagnostic construct. We also demonstrate strong shared heritability with a range of traits, show that heritability persists when conditioned on other major psychiatric disorders, present independent replication results, provide support for one of the implicated genes in postmortem brain of individuals with PTSD, and use this information to identify potential drug repositioning candidates. These results point to the utility of genetics to inform and validate the biological coherence of the PTSD syndrome despite considerable heterogeneity at the symptom level, and to provide new directions for treatment development.