1. 基于改进熵权法和 SECEEMD 的短期 风电功率预.
- Author
-
王永生, 张哲, 刘利民, 高静, 刘广文, and 武煜昊
- Abstract
In order to achieve high-precision short-term wind power prediction, a short-term wind power combination prediction method based on improved entropy weight method and SECEEMD (sample entropy complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition) was proposed, taking into account the volatility of wind power data and the impact of multi-dimensional meteorological data on wind power prediction. First of all, a comprehensive correlation analysis model was proposed, which combined multiple feature selection methods to achieve comprehensive evaluation of multi-dimensional meteorological features, accurately screened meteorological features with high correlation with wind power, and improved prediction accuracy. Secondly, in view of the problem that CEEMD has too many decomposition components and increases the degree of modal aliasing, the SECEEMD decomposition algorithm was proposed to reduce the number of components and the degree of modal aliasing, while improving the training speed of the model. Then, NWPLSTM(numerical weather prediction-long short term memory) and SECEEMD-BP prediction models were established respectively, and the structure of long short-term memory neural network and BP neural network were optimized by Bayesian optimization algorithm. Finally, the optimal weight combination was found through the improved entropy weight method. The experiment takes the wind power data and meteorological data of Biliuhe wind farm in Inner Mongolia as the experimental data. It has been verified that the prediction model proposed can greatly improve the prediction accuracy. Compared with the general prediction model, R 2 has increased by 4% and 0. 6% respectively, and MAE has decreased by 44% and 1. 1% respectively. The experiment proves that the wind power prediction method proposed in this paper has higher prediction accuracy and faster training speed, and is more suitable for wind power prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023