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Background: Challenges in timely access to one's usual primary care physician and the ongoing use of walk-in clinics have been major health policy issues in Ontario for over a decade. We sought to determine the association between patient-reported timely access to their usual primary care physician or clinic and their use of walk-in clinics., Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study of Ontario residents who had a primary care physician by linking population-based administrative data to Ontario's Health Care Experience Survey, collected between 2013 and 2020. We described sociodemographic characteristics and health care use for users of walk-in clinics and nonusers. We measured the adjusted association between self-reported same-day or next-day access and after-hours access to usual primary care physicians or clinics and the use of walk-in clinics in the previous 12 months., Results: Of the 60 935 total responses from people who had a primary care physician, 16 166 (weighted 28.6%, unweighted 26.5%) reported visiting a walk-in clinic in the previous 12 months. Compared with nonusers, those who used walk-in clinics were predominantly younger, lived in large and medium-sized urban areas and reported a tight, very tight or poor financial situation. Respondents who reported poor same-day or next-day access to their primary care physician or clinic were more likely to report having attended a walk-in clinic in the previous 12 months than those with better access (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.23, 95% confidence interval [Cl] 1.13-1.34). Those who reported being unaware that their primary care physician offered after-hours care had a higher likelihood of going to a walk-in clinic (adjusted OR 1.14, 95% Cl 1.07-1.21)., Interpretation: In this population-based health survey, patient-reported use of walk-in clinics was associated with a reported lack of access to same-day or next-day care and unawareness of after-hours care by respondents' usual primary care physicians. These findings could inform policies to improve access to primary care, while preserving care continuity., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© 2023 CMA Impact Inc. or its licensors.)

Background: Little is known about patterns of coexisting conditions and their influence on clinical care or outcomes in adults admitted to hospital for community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). We sought to evaluate how coexisting conditions cluster in this population to advance understanding of how multimorbidity affects CAP., Methods: We studied 11 085 adults admitted to hospital with CAP at 7 hospitals in Ontario, Canada. Using cluster analysis, we identified patient subgroups based on clustering of comorbidities in the Charlson Comorbidity Index. We derived and replicated cluster analyses in independent cohorts (derivation sample 2010-2015, replication sample 2015-2017), then combined these into a total cohort for final cluster analyses. We described differences in medications, imaging and outcomes., Results: Patients clustered into 7 subgroups. The low comorbidity subgroup ( n = 3052, 27.5%) had no comorbidities. The DM-HF-Pulm subgroup had prevalent diabetes, heart failure and chronic lung disease ( n = 1710, 15.4%). One disease category defined each remaining subgroup, as follows: pulmonary ( n = 1621, 14.6%), diabetes ( n = 1281, 11.6%), heart failure ( n = 1370, 12.4%), dementia ( n = 1038, 9.4%) and cancer ( n = 1013, 9.1%). Corticosteroid use ranged from 11.5% to 64.9% in the dementia and pulmonary subgroups, respectively. Piperacillin-tazobactam use ranged from 9.1% to 28.0% in the pulmonary and cancer subgroups, respectively. The use of thoracic computed tomography ranged from 5.7% to 36.3% in the dementia and cancer subgroups, respectively. Adjusting for patient factors, the risk of in-hospital death was greater in the cancer (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 3.12, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.44-3.99), dementia (adjusted OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.05-2.35), heart failure (adjusted OR 1.66, 95% CI 1.35-2.03) and DM-HF-Pulm subgroups (adjusted OR 1.35, 95% CI 1.12-1.61), and lower in the diabetes subgroup (adjusted OR 0.67, 95% CI 0.50-0.89), compared with the low comorbidity group., Interpretation: Patients admitted to hospital with CAP cluster into clinically recognizable subgroups based on coexisting conditions. Clinical care and outcomes vary among these subgroups with little evidence to guide decision-making, highlighting opportunities for research to personalize care., Competing Interests: Competing interests: Mark Green reports funding from the Economic and Social Research Council, the Medical Research Council, the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council and the Natural Environment Research Council of the United Kingdom Research Institute, the National Institute for Health and Care Research and Seqirus. He sits on the advisory board of Understanding Society, UK. Samir Gupta reports funding from the Public Health Agency of Canada; he is chair of the respiratory guidelines committee with the Canadian Thoracic Society. Michael Fralick reports consulting fees from ProofDx. Amol Verma is the Temerty Professor of Artificial Intelligence Research and Education in Medicine and a part-time employee of Ontario Health. No other competing interests were declared., (© 2023 CMA Impact Inc. or its licensors.)

Background: Variability in antimicrobial prescribing may indicate an opportunity for improvement in antimicrobial use. We sought to measure physician-level antimicrobial prescribing in adult general medical wards, assess the contribution of patient-level factors to antimicrobial prescribing and evaluate the association between antimicrobial prescribing and clinical outcomes., Methods: Using the General Medicine Inpatient Initiative (GEMINI) database, we conducted a retrospective cohort study of physician-level volume and spectrum of antimicrobial prescribing in adult general medical wards in 4 academic teaching hospitals in Toronto, Ontario, between April 2010 and December 2019. We stratified physicians into quartiles by hospital site based on volume of antimicrobial prescribing (days of therapy per 100 patient-days and antimicrobial-free days) and antibacterial spectrum (modified spectrum score). The modified spectrum score assigns a value to each antibacterial agent based on the breadth of coverage. We assessed patient-level differences among physician quartiles using age, sex, Laboratory-based Acute Physiology Score, discharge diagnosis and Charlson Comorbidity Index. We evaluated the association of clinical outcomes (in-hospital 30-day mortality, length of stay, intensive care unit [ICU] transfer and hospital readmission) with antimicrobial volume and spectrum using multilevel modelling., Results: The cohort consisted of 124 physicians responsible for 124 158 hospital admissions. The median physician-level volume of antimicrobial prescribing was 56.1 (interquartile range 51.7-67.5) days of therapy per 100 patient-days. We did not find any differences in baseline patient characteristics by physician prescribing quartile. The difference in mean prescribing between quartile 4 and quartile 1 was 15.8 days of therapy per 100 patient-days (95% confidence interval [CI] 9.6-22.0), representing 30% higher antimicrobial prescribing in the fourth quartile than the first quartile. Patient in-hospital deaths, length of stay, ICU transfer and hospital readmission did not differ by physician quartile. In-hospital mortality was higher among patients cared for by prescribers with higher modified spectrum scores (odds ratio 1.13, 95% CI 1.04-1.24)., Interpretation: We found that physician-level variability in antimicrobial prescribing was not associated with differences in patient characteristics or outcomes in academic general medicine wards. These findings provide support for considering the lowest quartile of physician antimicrobial prescribing within each hospital as a target for antimicrobial stewardship., Competing Interests: Competing interests: Michael Fralick is a consultant for ProofDx, a startup company that has created a point-of-care test for COVID-19 using CRISPR. Amol Verma is a provincial clinical lead for quality improvement at Ontario Health (part-time employee) and has the potential to acquire minority interests in a health artificial intelligence start-up company, Signal1, which acquired a patient deterioration early warning system that he coinvented. Fahad Razak is a principal investigator of the GEMINI platform. No other competing interests were declared., (© 2023 CMA Impact Inc. or its licensors.)

Background: Prognostic information at the time of hospital discharge can help guide goals-of-care discussions for future care. We sought to assess the association between the Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS), which may highlight patients' risk of adverse outcomes at the time of hospital discharge, and in-hospital death among patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) within 12 months of a previous hospital discharge., Methods: We conducted a multicentre retrospective cohort study that included patients aged 75 years or older admitted at least twice over a 12-month period to the general medicine service at 7 academic centres and large community-based teaching hospitals in Toronto and Mississauga, Ontario, Canada, from Apr. 1, 2010, to Dec. 31, 2019. The HFRS (categorized as low, moderate or high frailty risk) was calculated at the time of discharge from the first hospital admission. Outcomes included ICU admission and death during the second hospital admission., Results: The cohort included 22 178 patients, of whom 1767 (8.0%) were categorized as having high frailty risk, 9464 (42.7%) as having moderate frailty risk, and 10 947 (49.4%) as having low frailty risk. One hundred patients (5.7%) with high frailty risk were admitted to the ICU, compared to 566 (6.0%) of those with moderate risk and 790 (7.2%) of those with low risk. After adjustment for age, sex, hospital, day of admission, time of admission and Laboratory-based Acute Physiology Score, the odds of ICU admission were not significantly different for patients with high (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0.99, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.78 to 1.23) or moderate (adjusted OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.86 to 1.09) frailty risk compared to those with low frailty risk. Among patients admitted to the ICU, 75 (75.0%) of those with high frailty risk died, compared to 317 (56.0%) of those with moderate risk and 416 (52.7%) of those with low risk. After multivariable adjustment, the risk of death after ICU admission was higher for patients with high frailty risk than for those with low frailty risk (adjusted OR 2.86, 95% CI 1.77 to 4.77)., Interpretation: Among patients readmitted to hospital within 12 months, patients with high frailty risk were similarly likely as those with lower frailty risk to be admitted to the ICU but were more likely to die if admitted to ICU. The HFRS at hospital discharge can inform prognosis, which can help guide discussions for preferences for ICU care during future hospital stays., Competing Interests: Competing interests: Amol Verma and Fahad Razak are employees of Ontario Health (Quality), which had no role in this work. Katherine Courtright receives funding from the National Institutes of Health. Jacqueline Kruser’s time was supported, in part, by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (grant K23HL146890). No other competing interests were declared., (© 2023 CMA Impact Inc. or its licensors.)

Background: Physicians were directed to prioritize using nonsurgical cancer treatment at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. We sought to quantify the impact of this policy on the modality of first cancer treatment (surgery, chemotherapy, radiotherapy or no treatment)., Methods: In this population-based study using Ontario data from linked administrative databases, we identified adults diagnosed with cancer from January 2016 to November 2020 and their first cancer treatment received within 1 year postdiagnosis. Segmented Poisson regressions were applied to each modality to estimate the change in mean 1-year recipient volume per thousand patients (rate) at the start of the pandemic (the week of Mar. 15, 2020) and change in the weekly trend in rate during the pandemic (Mar. 15, 2020, to Nov. 7, 2020) relative to before the pandemic (Jan. 3, 2016, to Mar. 14, 2020)., Results: We included 321 535 people diagnosed with cancer. During the first week of the COVID-19 pandemic, the mean rate of receiving upfront surgery over the next year declined by 9% (rate ratio 0.91, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.88-0.95), and chemotherapy and radiotherapy rates rose by 30% (rate ratio 1.30, 95% CI 1.23-1.36) and 13% (rate ratio 1.13, 95% CI 1.07-1.19), respectively. Subsequently, the 1-year rate of upfront surgery increased at 0.4% for each week (rate ratio 1.004, 95% CI 1.002-1.006), and chemotherapy and radiotherapy rates decreased by 0.9% (rate ratio 0.991, 95% CI 0.989-0.994) and 0.4% (rate ratio 0.996, 95% CI 0.994-0.998), respectively, per week. Rates of each modality resumed to prepandemic levels at 24-31 weeks into the pandemic., Interpretation: An immediate and sustained increase in use of nonsurgical therapy as the first cancer treatment occurred during the first 8 months of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ontario. Further research is needed to understand the consequences., Competing Interests: Competing interests: Jonathan Irish is a member of the Canadian Cancer Society and the Ontario Institute for Cancer Research. Natalie Coburn is the clinical lead for patient-reported outcomes and symptom management at Ontario Health (Cancer Care Ontario). Julie Hallet reports receiving speaking honoraria from Ipsen Biopharmaceuticals, Advanced Accelerator Applications, Medtronic and Bristol-Myers Squibb. Monika Krzyzanowska reports receiving consulting fees from Lilly and Ipsen and attending the advisory boards of Ipsen and Bayer. Alexander Louie reports receiving speaking honoraria and being on the advisory board of AstraZeneca. Nicole Look Hong reports receiving consulting fees from MOLLI Surgical. Daniel McIsaac is on the advisory board of the PRICE 2 Trial and is a member of the American Society of Anesthesiology Committee on Geriatric Anesthesia. No other competing interests were declared., (© 2023 CMA Impact Inc. or its licensors.)

Background: Walk-in clinics are common in North America and are designed to provide acute episodic care without an appointment. We sought to describe a sample of walk-in clinic patients in Ontario, Canada, which is a setting with high levels of primary care attachment., Methods: We performed a cross-sectional study using health administrative data from 2019. We compared the sociodemographic characteristics and health care utilization patterns of patients attending 1 of 72 walk-in clinics with those of the general Ontario population. We examined the subset of patients who were enrolled with a family physician and compared walk-in clinic visits to family physician visits., Results: Our study found that 562 781 patients made 1 148 151 visits to the included walk-in clinics. Most (70%) patients who attended a walk-in clinic had an enrolling family physician. Walk-in clinic patients were younger (mean age 36 yr v. 41 yr, standardized mean difference [SMD] 0.24), yet had greater health care utilization (moderate and high use group 74% v. 65%, SMD 0.20) than the general Ontario population. Among enrolled Ontarians, walk-in patients had more comorbidities (moderate and high count 50% v. 45%, SMD 0.10), lived farther from their enrolling physician (median 8 km v. 6 km, SMD 0.21) and saw their enrolling physician less in the previous year (any visit 67% v. 80%, SMD 0.30). Walk-in encounters happened more often after hours (16% v. 9%, SMD 0.20) and on weekends (18% v. 5%, SMD 0.45). Walk-in clinics were more often within 3 km of patients' homes than enrolling physicians' offices (0 to < 3 km: 32% v. 22%, SMD 0.21)., Interpretation: Our findings suggest that proximity of walk-in clinics and after-hours access may be contributing to walk-in clinic use among patients enrolled with a family physician. These findings have implications for policy development to improve the integration of walk-in clinics and longitudinal primary care., Competing Interests: Competing interests: Lauren Lapointe-Shaw is supported by the University of Toronto Department of Medicine, the Toronto General Hospital Research Institute, the Women’s College Institute for Health System Solutions and Virtual Care and the Peter Gilgan Centre for Women’s Cancers at the Women’s College Hospital, in partnership with the Canadian Cancer Society. Tara Kiran is the Fidani Chair of Improvement and Innovation at the University of Toronto and is supported as a clinician scientist by the Department of Family and Community Medicine at St. Michael’s Hospital and the University of Toronto. Noah M. Ivers is supported by a Canada Research Chair in Implementation of Evidence-based Practice and a clinician scholar award from the Department of Family and Community Medicine at the Women’s College Hospital and the University of Toronto., (© 2023 CMA Impact Inc. or its licensors.)

Background: Physician home visits are essential for populations who cannot easily access office-based primary care. The objective of this study was to describe the characteristics, practice patterns and physician-level patient characteristics of Ontario physicians who provide home visits., Methods: This was a retrospective cross-sectional study, based on health administrative data, of Ontario physicians who provided home visits and their patients, between Jan. 1, 2019, and Dec. 31, 2019. We selected family physicians who had at least 1 home visit in 2019. Physician demographic characteristics, practice patterns and aggregated patient characteristics were compared between high-volume home visit physicians (the top 5%) and low-volume home visit physicians (bottom 95%)., Results: A total of 6572 family physicians had at least 1 home visit in 2019. The top 5% of home visit physicians ( n = 330) performed 58.6% of all home visits ( n = 227 321 out of 387 139). Compared with low-volume home visit physicians ( n = 6242), the top 5% were more likely to be male and practise in large urban areas, and rarely saw patients who were enrolled to them (median 4% v. 87.5%, standardized mean difference 1.12). High-volume physicians' home visit patients were younger, had greater levels of health care resource utilization, resided in lower-income and large urban neighbourhoods, and were less likely to have a medical home., Interpretation: A small subset of home visit physicians provided a large proportion of home visits in Ontario. These home visits may be addressing a gap in access to primary care for certain patients, but could be contributing to lower continuity of care., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© 2023 CMA Impact Inc. or its licensors.)

Background: COVID-19 imposed substantial health and economic burdens. Comprehensive population-based estimates of health care costs for COVID-19 are essential for planning and policy evaluation. We estimated publicly funded health care costs in 2 Canadian provinces during the pandemic's first wave., Methods: In this historical cohort study, we linked patients with their first positive SARS-CoV-2 test result by June 30, 2020, in 2 Canadian provinces (British Columbia and Ontario) to health care administrative databases and matched to negative or untested controls. We stratified patients by highest level of initial care: community, long-term care, hospital (without admission to the intensive care unit [ICU]) and ICU. Mean publicly funded health care costs for patients and controls, mean net (attributable to COVID-19) costs and total costs were estimated from 30 days before to 120 days after the index date, or to July 31, 2020, in 30-day periods for patients still being followed by the start of each period., Results: We identified 2465 matched people with a positive test result for SARS-CoV-2 in BC and 28 893 in Ontario. Mean age was 53.4 (standard deviation [SD] 21.8) years (BC) and 53.7 (SD 22.7) years (Ontario); 55.7% (BC) and 56.1% (Ontario) were female. Net costs in the first 30 days after the index date were $22 010 (95% confidence interval [CI] 19 512 to 24 509) and $15 750 (95% CI 15 354 to 16 147) for patients admitted to hospital, and $65 828 (95% CI 58 535 to 73 122) and $56 088 (95% CI 53 721 to 58 455) for ICU patients in BC and Ontario, respectively. In the community and long-term care settings, net costs were near 0. Total costs for all people, from 30 days before to 30 days after the index date, were $22 128 330 (BC) and $175 778 210 (Ontario)., Interpretation: During the first wave, we found that mean costs attributable to COVID-19 were highest for patients with ICU admission and higher in BC than Ontario. Reducing the number of people who acquire COVID-19 and severity of illness are required to mitigate the economic impact of COVID-19., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© 2022 CMA Impact Inc. or its licensors.)

Background: It is unknown how much of current physician home visit volume is driven by low-complexity or low-continuity visits. Our objectives were to measure physician home visit volumes and costs in Ontario from 2005/06 to 2018/19, and to compare patient characteristics and postvisit use of health care services across home visit types., Methods: This was a retrospective cross-sectional study using health administrative data. We examined annual physician home visit volumes and costs from 2005/06 to 2018/19 in Ontario, and characteristics and postvisit use of health care services of residents who received at least 1 home visit from any physician in 2014/15 to 2018/19. We categorized home visits as palliative, provided to a patient who also received home care services or "other," and compared characteristics and outcomes between groups., Results: A total of 4 418 334 physician home visits were performed between 2005/06 and 2018/19. More than half (2 256 667 [51.1%]) were classified as "other" and accounted for 39.1% ($22 million) of total annual physician billing costs. From 2014/15 to 2018/19, of the 413 057 home visit patients, 240 933 (58.3%) were adults aged 65 or more, and 323 283 (78.3%) lived in large urban areas. Compared to the palliative care and home care groups, the "other" group was younger, had fewer comorbidities, and had lower rates of emergency department visits and hospital admissions in the 30 days after the visit., Interpretation: About half of physician home visits in 2014/15 to 2018/19 were to patients who were receiving neither palliative care nor home care, a group that was younger and healthier, and had low use of health care services after the visit. There is an opportunity to refine policy tools to target patients most likely to benefit from physician home visits., Competing Interests: Competing interests: Nathan Stall is an associate editor of CMAJ. He was not involved in the editorial decision-making process for this article. No other competing interests were declared., (© 2022 CMA Impact Inc. or its licensors.)

Competing Interests: Intérêts concurrents: Amol Verma et Fahad Razak déclarent des honoraires personnels de Santé Ontario. Michael Fralick déclare des honoraires personnels de Pine Trees, en dehors du travail soumis. Aucun autre intérêt concurrent n’a été déclaré.

Competing Interests: Competing interests: Amol Verma and Fahad Razak are part-time employees of Ontario Health. Menaka Pai, Andrew Morris, Jennifer Gibson and Fahad Razak are members of the Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table. Sally Bean and Jennifer Gibson are members of the Ontario COVID-19 Bioethics Table. Michael Fralick is a co-investigator for the SOLIDARITY clinical trial. He also received consultant fees from Pine Trees Health that has developed a CRISPR-based point-of-care diagnostic test for COVID-19. No other competing interests were declared.

Background: Acute inpatient hospital admissions account for more than half of all health care costs related to diabetes. We sought to identify the most common and costly conditions leading to hospital admission among patients with diabetes compared with patients without diabetes., Methods: We used data from the General Internal Medicine Inpatient Initiative (GEMINI) study, a retrospective cohort study, of all patients admitted to a general internal medicine service at 7 Toronto hospitals between 2010 and 2015. The Canadian Institute for Health Information (CIHI) Most Responsible Diagnosis code was used to identify the 10 most frequent reasons for admission in patients with diabetes. Cost of hospital admission was estimated using the CIHI Resource Intensity Weight. Comparisons were made between patients with or without diabetes using the Pearson χ 2 test for frequency and distribution-free confidence intervals (CIs) for median cost., Results: Among the 150 499 hospital admissions in our study, 41 934 (27.8%) involved patients with diabetes. Compared with patients without diabetes, hospital admissions because of soft tissue and bone infections were most frequent (2.5% v. 1.9%; prevalence ratio [PR] 1.28, 95% CI 1.19-1.37) and costly (Can$8794 v. Can$5845; cost ratio [CR] 1.50, 95% CI 1.37-1.65) among patients with diabetes. This was followed by urinary tract infections (PR 1.16, 95% CI 1.11-1.22; CR 1.23, 95% CI 1.17-1.29), stroke (PR 1.13, 95% CI 1.07-1.19; CR 1.19, 95% CI 1.14-1.25) and electrolyte disorders (PR 1.11, 95% CI 1.03-1.20; CR 1.20, 95% CI 1.08-1.34)., Interpretation: Soft tissue and bone infections, urinary tract infections, stroke and electrolyte disorders are associated with a greater frequency and cost of hospital admissions in patients with diabetes than in those without diabetes. Preventive strategies focused on reducing hospital admissions secondary to these disorders may be beneficial in patients with diabetes., Competing Interests: Competing interests: Amol Verma and Fahad Razak report that they are part-time employees of Health Quality Ontario. No other competing interests were declared., (© 2021 Joule Inc. or its licensors.)

Background: Patient characteristics, clinical care, resource use and outcomes associated with admission to hospital for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Canada are not well described., Methods: We described all adults with COVID-19 or influenza discharged from inpatient medical services and medical-surgical intensive care units (ICUs) between Nov. 1, 2019, and June 30, 2020, at 7 hospitals in Toronto and Mississauga, Ontario. We compared patient outcomes using multivariable regression models, controlling for patient sociodemographic factors and comorbidity level. We validated the accuracy of 7 externally developed risk scores to predict mortality among patients with COVID-19., Results: There were 1027 hospital admissions with COVID-19 (median age 65 yr, 59.1% male) and 783 with influenza (median age 68 yr, 50.8% male). Patients younger than 50 years accounted for 21.2% of all admissions for COVID-19 and 24.0% of ICU admissions. Compared with influenza, patients with COVID-19 had significantly greater in-hospital mortality (unadjusted 19.9% v. 6.1%, adjusted relative risk [RR] 3.46, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.56-4.68), ICU use (unadjusted 26.4% v. 18.0%, adjusted RR 1.50, 95% CI 1.25-1.80) and hospital length of stay (unadjusted median 8.7 d v. 4.8 d, adjusted rate ratio 1.45, 95% CI 1.25-1.69). Thirty-day readmission was not significantly different (unadjusted 9.3% v. 9.6%, adjusted RR 0.98, 95% CI 0.70-1.39). Three points-based risk scores for predicting in-hospital mortality showed good discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] ranging from 0.72 to 0.81) and calibration., Interpretation: During the first wave of the pandemic, admission to hospital for COVID-19 was associated with significantly greater mortality, ICU use and hospital length of stay than influenza. Simple risk scores can predict in-hospital mortality in patients with COVID-19 with good accuracy., Competing Interests: Competing interests: Amol Verma and Fahad Razak report personal fees from Ontario Health. Michael Fralick reports personal fees from Pine Trees, outside the submitted work. No other competing interests were declared., (© 2021 Joule Inc. or its licensors.)

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak increases the importance of strategies to enhance urgent medical care delivery in long-term care (LTC) facilities that could potentially reduce transfers to emergency departments. The study objective was to model resource requirements to deliver virtual urgent medical care in LTC facilities., Methods: We used data from all general medicine inpatient admissions at 7 hospitals in the Greater Toronto Area, Ontario, Canada, over a 7.5-year period (Apr. 1, 2010, to Oct. 31, 2017) to estimate historical patterns of hospital resource use by LTC residents. We estimated an upper bound of potentially avoidable transfers by combining data on short admissions (≤ 72 h) with historical data on the proportion of transfers from LTC facilities for which patients were discharged from the emergency department without admission. Regression models were used to extrapolate future resource requirements, and queuing models were used to estimate physician staffing requirements to perform virtual assessments., Results: There were 235 375 admissions to general medicine wards, and residents of LTC facilities (age 16 yr or older) accounted for 9.3% ( n = 21 948) of these admissions. Among the admissions of residents of LTC facilities, short admissions constituted 24.1% ( n = 5297), and for 99.8% ( n = 5284) of these admissions, the patient received laboratory testing, for 86.9% ( n = 4604) the patient received plain radiography, for 41.5% ( n = 2197) the patient received computed tomography and for 81.2% ( n = 4300) the patient received intravenous medications. If all patients who have short admissions and are transferred from the emergency department were diverted to outpatient care, the average weekly demand for outpatient imaging per hospital would be 2.6 ultrasounds, 11.9 computed tomographic scans and 23.9 radiographs per week. The average daily volume of urgent medical virtual assessments would range from 2.0 to 5.8 per hospital. A single centralized virtual assessment centre staffed by 2 or 3 physicians would provide services similar in efficiency (measured by waiting time for physician assessment) to 7 separate centres staffed by 1 physician each., Interpretation: The provision of acute medical care to LTC residents at their facility would probably require rapid access to outpatient diagnostic imaging, within-facility access to laboratory services and intravenous medication and virtual consultations with physicians. The results of this study can inform efforts to deliver urgent medical care in LTC facilities in light of a potential surge in COVID-19 cases., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (Copyright 2020, Joule Inc. or its licensors.)

Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared.

Background: Transthoracic echocardiography is routinely performed in patients with stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) to help plan secondary stroke management, but recent data evaluating its usefulness in this context are lacking. We sought to evaluate the value of echocardiography for identifying clinically actionable findings for secondary stroke prevention., Methods: We conducted a multicentre cohort study of patients admitted to hospital with stroke or TIA between 2010 and 2015 at 2 academic hospitals in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Clinically actionable echocardiographic findings for secondary stroke prevention included cardiac thrombus, patent foramen ovale, atrial myxoma or valvular vegetation. We identified patient characteristics associated with clinically actionable findings using logistic regression., Results: Of the 1862 patients with stroke or TIA we identified, 1272 (68%) had at least 1 echocardiogram. Nearly all echocardiograms were transthoracic; 1097 (86%) were normal, 1 (0.08%) had an atrial myxoma, 2 (0.2%) had a valvular vegetation, 11 (0.9%) had a cardiac thrombus and 66 (5.2%) had a PFO. Patent foramen ovale was less likely among patients older than 60 years (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0.34, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.20-0.57), with prior stroke or TIA (adjusted OR 0.31, 95% CI 0.09-0.76) or with dyslipidemia (adjusted OR 0.39, 95% CI 0.15-0.84). Among the 130 patients with cryptogenic stroke who had an echocardiogram ( n = 110), a PFO was detected in 19 (17%) on transthoracic echocardiogram., Interpretation: Most patients with stroke or TIA had a normal echocardiogram, with few having clinically actionable findings for secondary stroke prevention. Clinically actionable findings, specifically PFO, were more common in patients with cryptogenic stroke., Competing Interests: Competing interests: Amol Verma and Fahad Razak report that they are part-time employee of Health Quality Ontario, as the Provincial Clinical Leads for Quality Improvement in General Internal Medicine. No other competing interests were declared., (© 2019 Joule Inc. or its licensors.)

Background: Short hospital stays may represent opportunities to avert unnecessary admissions or expedite inpatient care. To inform the design of interventions that target patients with potentially avoidable hospital admissions or brief stays, we examined the patient, physician and situational characteristics associated with short stays among patients admitted to general internal medicine wards and describe the use of hospital resources by these patients., Methods: This was a multicentre cross-sectional study conducted between Apr. 1, 2012, and Mar. 31, 2015, at 5 teaching hospitals in Toronto. We included all general internal medicine admissions through the emergency department. We examined patient, physician and situational predictors of a short hospital stay, which was defined as the patient's being discharged home alive in 2 possible time windows: less than 24 hours, or 72 hours or less., Results: The final study sample included 56 055 admissions and 37 700 unique patients. Patients discharged in less than 24 hours and in 72 hours or less accounted for 4245 (7.6%) and 13 442 (31.6%) admissions, respectively. After we controlled for patient factors, patients of female physicians were less likely than those of male physicians to have stays lasting less than 24 hours (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0.80, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.74-0.86) or 72 hours or less (adjusted OR 0.82, 95% CI 0.79-0.86). Patients admitted at night or on a weekday were significantly more likely than those admitted at other times to have stays lasting less than 24 hours (night: adjusted OR 2.73, 95% CI 2.44-3.06; weekday: adjusted OR 1.26, 95% CI 1.17-1.36) or 72 hours or less (night: adjusted OR 1.29, 95% CI 1.22-1.37, weekday: adjusted OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.01-1.10). Among stays lasting less than 24 hours and 24-72 hours, intravenously administered medications were ordered for 2788 (65.7%) and 10 722 (79.8%) patients, respectively, and computed tomography scans were performed for 1561 (36.8%) and 5354 (39.1%) patients, respectively., Interpretation: Short general internal medicine hospital stays were common and were associated with patient, physician and situational factors. Interventions to avert hospital admission or reduce length of stay may be more effective if they are accessible outside typical working hours and provide access to intravenous therapy and radiological investigations., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (Copyright 2019, Joule Inc. or its licensors.)

Background: The precise scope of hospital care delivered under general internal medicine services remains poorly quantified. The purpose of this study was to describe the demographic characteristics, medical conditions, health outcomes and resource use of patients admitted to general internal medicine at 7 hospital sites in the Greater Toronto Area., Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study involving all patients who were admitted to or discharged from general internal medicine at the study sites between Apr. 1, 2010, and Mar. 31, 2015. Clinical data from hospital electronic information systems were linked to administrative data from each hospital. We examined trends in resource use and patient characteristics over the study period., Results: There were 136 208 admissions to general internal medicine involving 88 121 unique patients over the study period. General internal medicine admissions accounted for 38.8% of all admissions from the emergency department and 23.7% of all hospital bed-days. Over the study period, the number of admissions to general internal medicine increased by 32.4%; there was no meaningful change in the median length of stay or cost per hospital stay. The median patient age was 73 (interquartile range [IQR] 57-84) years, and the median number of coexisting conditions was 6 (IQR 3-9). The median acute length of stay was 4.6 (IQR 2.5-8.6) days, and the median total cost per hospital stay was $5850 (IQR $3915-$10 061). Patients received at least 1 computed tomography scan in 52.2% of admissions. The most common primary discharge diagnoses were pneumonia (5.0% of admissions), heart failure (4.7%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (4.1%), urinary tract infection (4.0%) and stroke (3.6%)., Interpretation: Patients admitted to general internal medicine services represent a large, heterogeneous, resource-intensive and growing population. Understanding and improving general internal medicine care is essential to promote a high-quality, sustainable health care system., Competing Interests: Competing interests: Muhammad Mamdani has served on the advisory boards of and reports personal fees from Bristol-Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly and Company, GlaxoSmithKline, Hoffman-La Roche, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Pfizer and AstraZeneca outside of the submitted work. Irfan Dhalla is Vice-president of Evidence Development and Standards at Health Quality Ontario. Any opinions or conclusions expressed in this publication do not necessarily represent the opinions or conclusions of Health Quality Ontario. No endorsement is intended or should be inferred., (Copyright 2017, Joule Inc. or its licensors.)

Background: Timely follow-up after hospital discharge may decrease readmission to hospital. Financial incentives to improve follow-up have been introduced in the United States and Canada, but it is unknown whether they are effective. Our objective was to evaluate the impact of an incentive program on timely physician follow-up after hospital discharge., Methods: We conducted an interventional time series analysis of all medical and surgical patients who were discharged home from hospital between Apr. 1, 2002, and Jan. 30, 2015, in Ontario, Canada. The intervention was a supplemental billing code for physician follow-up within 14 days of discharge from hospital, introduced in 2006. The primary outcome was an outpatient visit within 14 days of discharge. Secondary outcomes were 7-day follow-up and a composite of emergency department visits, nonelective hospital readmission and death within 14 days., Results: We included 8 008 934 patient discharge records. The incentive code was claimed in 31% of eligible visits by 51% of eligible physicians, and cost $17.5 million over the study period. There was no change in the average monthly rate of outcomes in the year before the incentive was introduced compared with the year following introduction: 14-day follow-up (66.5% v. 67.0%, overall p = 0.5), 7-day follow-up (44.9% v. 44.9%, overall p = 0.5) and composite outcome (16.7% v. 16.9%, overall p = 0.2)., Interpretation: Despite uptake by physicians, a financial incentive did not alter follow-up after hospital discharge. This lack of effect may be explained by features of the incentive or by extra-physician barriers to follow-up. These barriers should be considered by policymakers before introducing similar initiatives., Competing Interests: Competing interests: Muhammad Mamdani has received personal fees for serving as an advisory board member to AstraZeneca, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly and Company, GlaxoSmithKline, Hoffman–La Roche, Novartis, Novo Nordisk and Pfizer. Noah Ivers and Muhammad Mamdani have received research grants from the Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care, unrelated to the current study. Chaim Bell has received consultant fees from the Policy and Innovation Branch of the Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care. No other competing interests were declared., (© 2017 Canadian Medical Association or its licensors.)