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Objectives: Existing tools to predict the risk of complications among people with type 2 diabetes poorly discriminate high- from low-risk patients. Our aim in this study was to develop risk prediction scores for major type 2 diabetes complications using real-world clinical care data, and to externally validate these risk scores in a different jurisdiction., Methods: Using health-care administrative data and electronic medical records data, risk scores were derived using data from 25,088 people with type 2 diabetes from the Canadian province of Ontario, followed between 2002 and 2017. Scores were developed for major clinically important microvascular events (treatment for retinopathy, foot ulcer, incident end-stage renal disease), cardiovascular disease events (acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, stroke, amputation), and mortality (cardiovascular, noncardiovascular, all-cause). They were then externally validated using the independent data of 11,416 people with type 2 diabetes from the province of Manitoba., Results: The 10 derived risk scores had moderate to excellent discrimination in the independent validation cohort, ranging from 0.705 to 0.977. Their calibration to predict 5-year risk was excellent across most levels of predicted risk, albeit with some displaying underestimation at the highest levels of predicted risk., Conclusions: The DIabeteS COmplications (DISCO) risk scores for major type 2 diabetes complications were derived and externally validated using contemporary real-world clinical data. As a result, they may be more accurate than other risk prediction scores derived using randomized trial data. The use of more accurate risk scores in clinical practice will help improve personalization of clinical care for patients with type 2 diabetes., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Objectives: The prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) is increasing and Indigenous populations are at highest risk. Canadian data are crucial for health planning., Methods: Population-based, de-identified, linked databases were used to calculate the incidence and prevalence of T2D for registered adult First Nations Manitobans and all other adult Manitobans from 2011-2012 to 2016-2017., Results: The crude prevalence of T2D increased over the 6-year study period. The crude incidence of T2D for First Nations Manitobans dropped from 11.02 to 9.74 per 1,000 person-years at risk and the crude incidence for all other Manitobans did not change; in the last 2-year period, it was 6.53 per 1,000 person-years at risk. When incidence was stratified by age, the results differed between the younger and older age groups. For First Nations individuals, the adjusted incidence of T2D for those <30 years old increased over time, with no change in those ≥30 years old. For all other Manitobans, crude incidence increased over time in the young and middle age ranges (i.e. 18 to 29 years and 35 to 44 years, respectively). Both age- and sex-adjusted relative prevalence (adjusted rate ratio [aRR], 3.47; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.56 to 4.70) and incidence (aRR, 1.97; 95% CI, 1.51 to 2.56) were higher for First Nations Manitobans., Conclusions: The prevalence of T2D continues to increase and disproportionately affects First Nations populations. Furthermore, the incidence is increasing in the younger age groups. Prevention and screening programs must include younger age groups and partner with First Nations communities., (Copyright © 2023 Canadian Diabetes Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)