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Objective: To compare the prognostic value of mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC), weight-for-height Z-score (WHZ) and weight-for-age Z-score (WAZ) for predicting death over periods of 1, 3 and 6 months follow-up in children. Design: Pooled analysis of twelve prospective studies examining survival after anthropometric assessment. Sensitivity and false-positive ratios to predict death within 1, 3 and 6 months were compared for three individual anthropometric indices and their combinations. Setting: Community-based, prospective studies from twelve countries in Africa and Asia. Participants: Children aged 6–59 months living in the study areas. Results: For all anthropometric indices, the receiver operating characteristic curves were higher for shorter than for longer durations of follow-up. Sensitivity was higher for death with 1-month follow-up compared with 6 months by 49 % (95 % CI (30, 69)) for MUAC < 115 mm (P < 0·001), 48 % (95 % CI (9·4, 87)) for WHZ < -3 (P < 0·01) and 28 % (95 % CI (7·6, 42)) for WAZ < -3 (P < 0·005). This was accompanied by an increase in false positives of only 3 % or less. For all durations of follow-up, WAZ < -3 identified more children who died and were not identified by WHZ < -3 or by MUAC < 115 mm, 120 mm or 125 mm, but the use of WAZ < -3 led to an increased false-positive ratio up to 16·4 % (95 % CI (12·0, 20·9)) compared with 3·5 % (95 % CI (0·4, 6·5)) for MUAC < 115 mm alone. Conclusions: Frequent anthropometric measurements significantly improve the identification of malnourished children with a high risk of death without markedly increasing false positives. Combining two indices increases sensitivity but also increases false positives among children meeting case definitions.

Objective:The Three Delays Model is a conceptual model traditionally used to understand contributing factors of maternal mortality. It posits that most barriers to health services utilisation occur in relation to one of three delays: (1) Delay 1: delayed decision to seek care; (2) Delay 2: delayed arrival at health facility and (3) Delay 3: delayed provision of adequate care. We applied this model to understand why a community-based management of acute malnutrition (CMAM) services may have low coverage.Design:We conducted a Semi-Quantitative Evaluation of Access and Coverage (SQUEAC) over three phases using mixed methods to estimate programme coverage and barriers to care. In this manuscript, we present findings from fifty-one semi-structured interviews with caregivers and programme staff, as well as seventy-two structured interviews among caregivers only. Recurring themes were organised and interpreted using the Three Delays Model.Setting:Madaoua, Niger.Participants:Totally, 123 caregivers and CMAM program staff.Results:Overall, eleven barriers to CMAM services were identified in this setting. Five barriers contribute to Delay 1, including lack of knowledge around malnutrition and CMAM services, as well as limited family support, variable screening services and alternative treatment options. High travel costs, far distances, poor roads and competing demands were challenges associated with accessing care (Delay 2). Finally, upon arrival to health facilities, differential caregiver experiences around quality of care contributed to Delay 3.Conclusions:The Three Delays Model was a useful model to conceptualise the factors associated with CMAM uptake in this context, enabling implementing agencies to address specific barriers through targeted activities.

ObjectiveThe present study was performed to describe the operational implications of using mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) as a single admission criterion for treatment of severe acute malnutrition in South Sudan.DesignWe performed a retrospective analysis of routine programme data of children with severe acute malnutrition aged 6–59 months admitted to a therapeutic feeding programme using weight-for-height Z-score (WHZ) and/or MUAC. To understand the implications of using MUAC as a single admission criterion, we compared patient characteristics and treatment outcomes for children admitted with MUACv. children admitted with WHZResultsOf 2205 children included for analysis, 719 (32·6 %) were admitted to the programme with MUACv. 69 %) and had higher risk of death (4 % v. 1 %), but responded to treatment with greater weight and MUAC gains. MUACConclusionsThe study shows that MUAC

OBJECTIVES/SPECIFIC AIMS: A course of oral broad-spectrum antibiotics frequently has a positive effect on morbidity and mortality in severe acute malnutrition (SAM), but the actual mechanism for this effect is unknown. This mechanism is especially important to find and quantify because of the possibility that using antibiotics prophylactically may accelerate the danger from antibiotic resistant infections. This study aims to answer (1) how antibiotic therapy improves the nutritional recovery and (2) how much it affects the prevalence of resistance genes in the microbiome. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: Stool samples were collected from children with SAM between 6 and 60 weeks of age who received either one week of amoxicillin or placebo (n=164). The children were followed for 12 weeks with longitudinal sampling, and a subset were followed out to 2 years. All samples were frozen at −80°C and prepared for metagenome shotgun sequencing via the Illumina Nextera platform. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Antibiotic treatment at the start of the nutritional program is associated with significant improvements in weight gain, mid-upper-arm circumference, and graduation from the treatment program. It is also associated with qualitative decreases in early-life fermenter Lactobacillus and known enteropathogen Campylobacter. Two years after the use of amoxicillin, the Shannon diversity index is significantly higher than that of malnourished children (effect size 0.507, 95% CI: 0.204–0.630, p=0.0007), while children who received placebo are not distinguishable from malnourished children by the same metric (effect size 0.147, 95% CI: −0.311, 0.630, p=0.5878). Sustained antibiotic resistance gene enrichment within the microbiota did not occur, as the enrichment effects disappears by week 4 of follow-up. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: The use of amoxicillin to treat uncomplicated SAM has therapeutic benefits visible by anthropometry and by content of the gut microbiota. The main concern with the use of prophylactic antibiotics for this purpose is the effect on antibiotic resistance gene enrichment in the children’s microbiota. This concern was not supported here. The benefit/cost ratio for the use of prophylactic antibiotics for individuals in this cohort is positive when weighing effects on anthropometry, microbiome, and antibiotic resistance. The results of this study impact the treatment of millions of children each year at nutritional therapy clinics around the world.